Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 24 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 February 2014, Liverpool 4 3 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          27   60  +28       7.39    85.14     3.60    82.54     4.17    39.46    37.26    70.80    89.17    99.17   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   59  +25       6.88    83.03     1.08    78.96     4.29    32.61    12.22    32.39    66.34    95.14    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.44    51.21     6.55    82.54     4.14    58.10    43.44    74.68    90.91    99.31    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        27   56  +35       2.55    63.08     7.17    77.07     4.34    44.82     7.06    21.82    50.87    90.80    99.61     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   50   +3       7.58    84.22    -4.54    67.92     4.32     7.20     0.02     0.24     1.79     8.65    78.26     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.67    21.35    -9.38    65.66     4.33    20.77     0.00     0.02     0.37     3.53    63.27     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   45  +10       3.57    68.72     1.87    65.35     4.63    15.68     0.00     0.06     0.55     3.42    56.64     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        27   40   -5       6.62    81.64     2.03    53.72     4.28    -7.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   39   +6       2.57    63.90     7.95    53.65     4.35     4.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         27   31   -3      -3.72    30.95     1.23    43.26     4.15    -7.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.73R    0.03  
Hull             27   30   -2       0.22    52.38     9.36    41.70     4.21    -6.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.18R    0.20  
Swansea          27   28   -4      -5.88    21.10     2.02    43.01     4.35    -4.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.72R    0.14  
Aston_Villa      27   28  -10      -2.41    37.80     1.00    40.84     4.16   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.36R    0.56  
Norwich          27   28  -19      -0.41    48.62    -4.61    38.52     4.06   -26.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.01R    2.26  
Stoke            27   27  -15      -1.99    39.85    -2.23    40.37     4.31   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.03R    1.02  
Crystal_Palace   26   26  -18       3.04    68.74     2.83    35.73     4.08   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.18R   10.35  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.88    11.34    -2.01    38.60     4.27   -11.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.71R    2.41  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.20    23.62    -5.86    36.59     4.18   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.41R    6.61  
Cardiff          27   22  -29      -1.43    43.22    -5.74    31.64     3.95   -37.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.32R   46.03  
Fulham           27   21  -32      -5.30    22.80   -12.30    33.12     4.14   -37.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.34R   30.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Barnsley 1 0 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       32   71  +27      13.78    95.25     6.62    95.93     4.97    35.76    87.12    97.37   100.00    98.04P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         32   63  +24      10.08    88.79    10.50    85.45     5.14    28.78     7.89    50.03    98.84    62.42P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   61  +20      10.65    89.60    10.13    83.74     5.12    25.42     3.74    34.00    97.48    47.80P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             31   56  +12       6.12    76.96     1.32    79.98     5.21    17.10     0.95    10.61    88.54    31.62P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   55  +18       4.89    71.63     8.55    77.51     5.08    22.96     0.25     5.74    80.61    23.30P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         32   50  +13      -2.77    37.43    -0.40    73.48     5.13    19.64     0.04     1.31    52.83    15.99P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           31   49   +8      -0.87    45.85    -2.84    72.42     5.31    12.41     0.01     0.78    40.57    11.27P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   46   +6      -1.40    43.33    -1.43    68.91     5.19     9.51     0.00     0.09    17.77     4.66P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       31   46   +3       1.83    59.15     0.40    67.38     5.30     4.41     0.00     0.05    10.91     2.31P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   45   +6       1.17    55.85     5.94    64.16     5.05     6.08     0.00     0.01     3.90     0.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    31   43   +4       0.31    51.99     3.79    64.09     5.25     4.78     0.00     0.01     4.19     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         32   42   +5      -6.37    22.38    -1.77    63.85     5.10     9.03     0.00     0.00     3.50     0.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   40   +5      -4.52    29.62     3.91    59.82     5.06     6.03     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.12P    0.04R    0.00  
Huddersfield    32   40   -4       0.94    55.05     3.21    57.33     5.01    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.23R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       31   36   +0      -4.27    30.34     2.98    55.46     5.24    -1.52     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.83R    0.02  
Birmingham      32   36   -2      -8.90    14.41    -3.51    55.21     5.14    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.84R    0.02  
Bournemouth     31   36  -14       2.66    63.83     0.98    53.31     5.25   -18.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.27R    0.22  
Blackpool       32   35  -15      -5.25    26.79    -9.87    52.45     4.89   -17.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.30R    0.17  
Bolton          32   33  -12      -9.60    12.11    -9.88    52.27     5.14   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.91R    0.24  
Doncaster       32   30  -20      -2.34    39.49    -3.07    43.52     4.78   -28.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.44R   10.38  
Millwall        32   28  -29      -4.97    27.21   -12.22    42.20     4.73   -36.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.36R   17.84  
Charlton        29   27  -14      -8.29    13.99    -7.94    48.36     5.56   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.55R    2.50  
Barnsley        31   26  -21      -6.79    19.31    -6.05    40.35     4.90   -30.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.57R   29.32  
Yeovil          31   25  -20      -4.18    30.49     0.65    39.12     4.82   -30.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.66R   39.28  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Bradford 1 0 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   33   67  +34      10.14    88.18    16.42    89.20     4.89    40.57    12.81    42.97    99.95    60.92P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   67  +34       5.51    74.57     5.68    96.15     5.16    46.91    66.34    89.56   100.00    93.78P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   66  +23      13.19    94.58     7.56    91.44     5.37    30.26    19.91    59.99    99.97    72.14P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         32   60  +13      11.74    91.78     6.45    82.29     5.17    17.52     0.70     5.38    96.51    25.95P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       31   57  +15      12.68    92.55    12.74    76.76     5.43    13.47     0.09     0.89    79.32    12.72P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    31   52  +10       0.36    51.33    -3.85    77.98     5.39    18.68     0.14     1.21    86.70    25.93P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         32   47   +6       1.31    56.22     3.19    67.73     5.16     8.33     0.00     0.00    14.88     3.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         32   45   +6      -6.59    21.99    -5.53    67.33     5.24    10.65     0.00     0.00    14.19     3.82P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         32   43   +2      -6.56    22.27    -6.45    63.32     5.22     3.58     0.00     0.00     3.89     0.93P    0.16R    0.00  
Port_Vale       32   43   -5       3.44    66.31     2.12    59.43     5.14    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.09P    1.57R    0.03  
Bradford        32   41   +5       1.29    56.70    11.02    57.98     5.08     1.63     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P    2.43R    0.05  
Gillingham      33   38  -13       0.60    53.75    -0.34    52.53     4.80   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.31R    1.46  
Coventry        31   37   +3       0.93    54.44    -2.04    59.33     5.48     5.45     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.26P    2.08R    0.07  
Oldham          32   37   -8      -0.59    47.97     1.25    54.07     5.05   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.28R    0.77  
Carlisle        32   36  -17       0.34    52.58    -3.32    50.72     4.88   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.53R    4.36  
Colchester      29   35   -2      -1.11    45.25     3.53    56.18     5.72    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    8.42R    0.64  
Sheff_Utd       30   35   -6      -9.05    13.40   -10.31    57.18     5.54    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P    5.29R    0.27  
Tranmere        32   35  -17      -3.40    34.79    -8.55    53.09     5.09   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.69R    1.80  
Crawley_Town    26   34   -4       1.55    58.80     1.04    59.25     6.32    -7.25     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.23P    4.54R    0.34  
Crewe           32   34  -24       1.19    56.88    -5.30    48.27     4.90   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.51R   12.18  
Bristol_City    33   32   -8     -13.02     7.12    -7.03    50.71     5.07    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.60R    4.14  
Shrewsbury      32   31  -12      -6.14    23.08    -2.30    47.70     4.97   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.92R   11.89  
Notts_County    33   30  -13     -12.34     7.46    -8.10    47.42     5.01   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.75R   11.91  
Stevenage       30   25  -22      -6.91    19.23    -7.87    42.77     5.34   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.89R   50.09  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         32   58  +22       3.04    63.61     6.02    82.39     5.14    29.45    37.14    84.78    99.75    89.75P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           32   58  +19       2.23    60.02     1.59    83.04     5.16    27.45    41.72    86.78    99.84    91.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   57  +14       7.34    80.44     5.45    78.98     5.26    18.09    13.34    60.24    98.48    70.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +18       3.02    63.46     8.20    74.23     4.88    20.11     3.11    25.78    93.20    44.83P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       31   52  +13       6.14    76.89     7.97    74.10     5.42    15.27     3.43    24.60    90.07    40.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   52   +3       8.04    82.85     2.55    70.78     5.11     2.56     0.58     7.78    73.03    20.05P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             32   49  +10      -0.79    46.55     1.30    70.61     5.15    13.52     0.62     8.93    76.10    28.48P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       29   42   +2       8.54    85.85    11.22    62.84     5.89    -1.63     0.05     0.78    20.06     3.75P    0.50R    0.11  
Hartlepool           33   42   -2      -4.79    29.58    -4.67    60.95     4.95    -0.20     0.00     0.05     9.43     2.46P    0.51R    0.10  
Plymouth             31   42   -7       3.70    68.34    -2.11    59.77     5.14   -10.37     0.00     0.06     6.32     1.11P    1.20R    0.27  
York                 33   40   +1      -1.68    42.84     5.24    56.85     4.84    -0.21     0.00     0.00     2.08     0.41P    2.99R    0.73  
Dag_&_Red            32   40   -2      -1.10    45.52     1.73    58.67     5.13    -2.60     0.00     0.02     4.68     1.00P    1.90R    0.50  
Morecambe            32   40   -6      -0.86    46.54    -1.96    57.61     5.02    -8.07     0.00     0.01     2.80     0.59P    3.06R    0.73  
Exeter               32   39   -4      -4.87    28.93    -4.18    58.62     5.16    -3.29     0.00     0.02     4.67     1.13P    2.11R    0.54  
Cheltenham           31   39   -4      -3.75    33.01    -4.76    58.61     5.34    -5.15     0.00     0.06     4.96     1.16P    2.40R    0.65  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38   -6       0.88    55.04     3.44    54.93     5.02    -9.01     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.18P    8.39R    2.48  
Mansfield            32   38  -10       2.52    62.65     2.10    54.76     5.09   -13.38     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.11P   10.71R    3.50  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37   -2      -3.36    34.83     0.49    56.48     5.29    -3.32     0.00     0.01     2.37     0.53P    5.23R    1.66  
Accrington_Stanley   31   37   -6      -0.58    47.87     0.77    55.01     5.19    -9.56     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.23P    8.96R    2.71  
Bury                 30   36   -2      -6.98    20.41    -4.97    58.96     5.68    -0.43     0.00     0.10     7.26     2.05P    2.58R    0.73  
Portsmouth           32   36  -12      -9.42    14.02   -14.39    55.88     5.24   -11.03     0.00     0.00     1.41     0.34P    7.24R    2.27  
Wycombe              31   34   -5      -6.72    21.14    -2.86    53.11     5.27    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.14P   15.57R    6.04  
Torquay              31   29  -17      -7.85    16.47    -9.11    46.72     5.22   -20.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   64.73R   40.04  
Northampton          31   29  -17      -7.57    17.42    -9.11    47.05     5.24   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    61.92R   36.95  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 1 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            31   69  +50       6.94    81.57    17.42    99.97     4.90    67.43    97.96   100.00    98.83P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    30   58  +26       8.37    85.65    13.45    84.61     5.38    33.32     1.74    97.34    30.20P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    33   57   +0      14.55    95.68     5.29    76.05     4.81     1.51     0.02    61.47     7.69P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           33   54  +10      -1.38    43.65    -5.45    74.92     4.90    14.72     0.01    55.00    15.52P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.90    89.60     5.41    67.87     4.77    -4.87     0.00     8.29     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         34   53   -4      10.75    89.69     2.75    67.52     4.48    -7.00     0.00     6.37     0.79P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        33   51   +9       3.10    64.29     5.11    69.02     4.80     9.25     0.00    13.87     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   49  +14       1.07    55.26    -0.33    79.10     5.79    22.71     0.27    80.39    25.55P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.08    50.53     8.73    65.07     4.74    10.74     0.00     3.72     0.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    31   47   +2      -2.39    38.52    -8.91    70.43     5.28     6.42     0.00    22.00     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     29   44  +15      -2.93    35.33     3.45    70.29     5.71    19.38     0.00    26.19     6.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     30   44   +5      -0.54    47.54    -0.02    64.88     5.51     3.16     0.00     5.13     0.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          32   43   +5      -9.78    11.81    -9.02    64.89     5.02     8.90     0.00     3.76     1.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          31   43   +4       2.45    61.73     7.38    62.56     5.32     2.23     0.00     1.86     0.27P    0.09R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   43   -4      -1.54    43.13    -0.29    57.29     4.54    -7.45     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.63R    0.00  
Woking           33   42   -9       1.14    56.08    -1.08    55.27     4.53   -17.24     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.45R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   26   39   +8       3.03    66.21     7.53    67.66     6.20     9.75     0.00    14.39     2.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         32   39  -10      -4.84    28.13    -9.46    57.68     4.89   -10.55     0.00     0.05     0.02P    0.89R    0.00  
Aldershot        31   32   +5      -8.46    15.72    -7.51    58.44     5.21    14.38     0.00     0.11     0.03P    1.05R    0.00  
Chester          32   32  -18       0.15    51.88     0.59    47.33     4.75   -24.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.32R    0.00  
Dartford         33   32  -19      -5.89    23.66    -6.18    47.56     4.73   -22.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.62R    0.00  
Southport        32   31  -21      -3.84    32.00    -5.62    47.01     4.92   -26.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.13R    0.00  
Tamworth         31   29  -20      -3.50    33.23    -4.34    44.28     4.93   -28.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.76R    0.00  
Hyde_United      34    9  -58     -17.43     0.42   -18.92    16.93     3.79   -74.75     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10