Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 23 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 February 2014, Liverpool 4 3 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          27   60  +28       7.38    85.01     3.53    82.53     4.16    39.46    37.11    70.30    88.93    99.11    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   59  +25       6.85    82.85     1.04    78.97     4.33    32.62    12.66    32.96    66.16    95.11    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.45    50.97     6.62    82.55     4.12    58.13    43.02    74.46    91.11    99.35    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        27   56  +35       2.54    63.10     7.11    77.10     4.32    44.85     7.19    21.95    51.12    90.90    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   50   +3       7.55    84.25    -4.58    67.95     4.34     7.24     0.01     0.24     1.81     8.81    78.64     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.68    21.51    -9.40    65.65     4.34    20.74     0.00     0.02     0.39     3.52    63.32     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   45  +10       3.58    69.06     1.85    65.33     4.60    15.68     0.00     0.07     0.48     3.20    56.33     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        27   40   -5       6.56    81.31     1.99    53.74     4.28    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   39   +6       2.64    64.22     8.10    53.64     4.34     4.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         27   31   -3      -3.54    31.96     1.49    43.20     4.17    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.91R    0.05  
Hull             27   30   -2       0.07    51.14     9.15    41.73     4.20    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.88R    0.18  
Swansea          27   28   -4      -5.98    20.88     1.84    43.03     4.33    -4.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.62R    0.13  
Aston_Villa      27   28  -10      -2.56    37.18     0.78    40.87     4.16   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.24R    0.55  
Norwich          27   28  -19      -0.26    49.48    -4.41    38.48     4.04   -26.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.09R    2.25  
Stoke            27   27  -15      -1.98    39.83    -2.23    40.36     4.29   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.86R    0.99  
Crystal_Palace   26   26  -18       3.05    68.91     2.81    35.75     4.06   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.81R   10.02  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.82    11.14    -1.89    38.58     4.26   -11.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.67R    2.45  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.07    24.05    -5.67    36.53     4.20   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.94R    7.01  
Cardiff          27   22  -29      -1.32    43.86    -5.62    31.61     3.93   -37.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.63R   46.52  
Fulham           27   21  -32      -5.43    22.00   -12.49    33.15     4.15   -37.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.34R   29.87  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Barnsley 1 0 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       32   71  +27      13.75    95.41     6.64    95.91     4.96    35.72    87.35    97.37   100.00    98.10P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         32   63  +24      10.17    88.99    10.60    85.33     5.13    28.61     7.56    49.32    98.78    61.72P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   61  +20      10.73    89.86    10.20    83.74     5.10    25.45     3.70    34.20    97.58    47.82P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             31   56  +12       6.18    77.33     1.35    80.04     5.23    17.17     1.03    10.96    88.46    31.82P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   55  +18       4.88    71.70     8.57    77.51     5.08    22.95     0.27     5.85    80.42    23.31P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         32   50  +13      -2.88    36.70    -0.58    73.47     5.14    19.62     0.05     1.33    52.43    16.08P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           31   49   +8      -1.09    44.76    -3.19    72.50     5.29    12.52     0.04     0.81    41.16    11.70P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   46   +6      -1.33    43.59    -1.37    68.90     5.21     9.49     0.01     0.10    17.83     4.70P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       31   46   +3       1.83    59.21     0.37    67.40     5.27     4.42     0.00     0.03    11.03     2.22P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   45   +6       1.44    57.16     6.35    64.07     5.02     5.94     0.00     0.01     3.54     0.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    31   43   +4       0.36    52.31     3.87    64.10     5.31     4.76     0.00     0.01     4.28     0.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         32   42   +5      -6.49    22.39    -1.96    63.90     5.11     9.08     0.00     0.00     3.68     0.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   40   +5      -4.53    29.55     3.86    59.80     5.05     6.01     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.11P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield    32   40   -4       0.99    55.58     3.33    57.36     5.02    -6.85     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P    0.27R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   36   +0      -4.41    29.71     2.81    55.47     5.23    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.80R    0.01  
Birmingham      32   36   -2      -8.97    14.08    -3.61    55.23     5.13    -1.81     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.92R    0.02  
Bournemouth     31   36  -14       2.70    63.95     1.11    53.31     5.28   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.40R    0.22  
Blackpool       32   35  -15      -5.22    26.88    -9.78    52.44     4.90   -17.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.41R    0.19  
Bolton          32   33  -12      -9.58    12.33    -9.88    52.29     5.17   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.86R    0.29  
Doncaster       32   30  -20      -2.31    39.73    -3.09    43.54     4.76   -28.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.33R   10.27  
Millwall        32   28  -29      -4.90    27.56   -12.12    42.17     4.74   -36.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.35R   17.93  
Charlton        29   27  -14      -8.49    13.45    -8.25    48.43     5.56   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.18R    2.41  
Barnsley        31   26  -21      -6.81    19.14    -6.03    40.31     4.92   -30.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.04R   29.79  
Yeovil          31   25  -20      -4.06    30.98     0.80    39.09     4.82   -30.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.39R   38.86  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Bradford 1 0 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   33   67  +34      10.06    87.82    16.31    89.18     4.91    40.55    12.66    43.35    99.97    61.17P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   67  +34       5.38    74.25     5.43    96.16     5.15    46.98    66.47    89.50   100.00    93.99P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   66  +23      13.20    94.59     7.62    91.41     5.36    30.20    20.00    59.91    99.97    71.78P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         32   60  +13      11.82    91.83     6.58    82.21     5.17    17.39     0.65     5.23    96.44    25.76P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       31   57  +15      12.64    92.66    12.66    76.83     5.45    13.55     0.11     0.87    79.60    13.15P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    31   52  +10       0.63    52.56    -3.37    77.84     5.43    18.45     0.11     1.13    86.03    25.37P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         32   47   +6       1.34    56.65     3.22    67.71     5.17     8.29     0.00     0.00    14.93     3.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         32   45   +6      -6.58    22.01    -5.53    67.33     5.22    10.67     0.00     0.00    14.40     3.91P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         32   43   +2      -6.72    21.85    -6.65    63.36     5.21     3.66     0.00     0.00     4.15     1.05P    0.13R    0.00  
Port_Vale       32   43   -5       3.61    66.88     2.46    59.37     5.10    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.09P    1.53R    0.02  
Bradford        32   41   +5       1.53    57.60    11.42    57.88     5.09     1.48     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.07P    2.48R    0.06  
Gillingham      33   38  -13       0.71    53.81    -0.24    52.53     4.81   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    21.38R    1.58  
Coventry        31   37   +3       0.94    54.44    -2.05    59.32     5.43     5.45     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.26P    2.06R    0.05  
Oldham          32   37   -8      -0.64    47.85     1.19    54.05     5.07   -11.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   13.59R    0.82  
Carlisle        32   36  -17       0.27    52.26    -3.47    50.77     4.88   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.94R    4.46  
Colchester      29   35   -2      -1.00    45.84     3.65    56.17     5.68    -5.42     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    8.35R    0.56  
Sheff_Utd       30   35   -6      -9.04    13.26   -10.29    57.18     5.55    -5.46     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    5.46R    0.26  
Tranmere        32   35  -17      -3.40    34.86    -8.53    53.11     5.09   -18.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.82R    1.80  
Crawley_Town    26   34   -4       1.37    57.60     0.80    59.42     6.32    -7.00     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.26P    4.39R    0.33  
Crewe           32   34  -24       1.16    57.04    -5.41    48.30     4.91   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.08R   12.13  
Bristol_City    33   32   -8     -13.21     6.74    -7.26    50.76     5.08    -6.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   30.57R    4.24  
Shrewsbury      32   31  -12      -6.14    23.05    -2.36    47.72     4.99   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.88R   11.94  
Notts_County    33   30  -13     -12.37     7.30    -8.18    47.41     4.98   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.45R   11.88  
Stevenage       30   25  -22      -6.98    18.33    -7.98    42.83     5.32   -28.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.88R   49.86  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         32   58  +22       2.89    63.15     5.84    82.40     5.11    29.49    37.29    85.02    99.78    90.07P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           32   58  +19       2.32    60.30     1.70    83.03     5.18    27.44    41.43    86.64    99.78    91.15P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   57  +14       7.24    80.17     5.32    79.05     5.24    18.18    13.37    60.93    98.59    70.67P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +18       2.87    63.12     8.02    74.28     4.87    20.17     3.27    25.94    93.31    45.16P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       31   52  +13       6.26    77.18     8.13    74.04     5.40    15.20     3.24    23.89    89.88    39.18P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   52   +3       7.89    82.47     2.30    70.79     5.08     2.58     0.67     7.65    73.25    20.42P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             32   49  +10      -0.93    45.62     1.14    70.65     5.12    13.59     0.69     8.97    76.63    28.84P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       29   42   +2       8.54    85.62    11.24    62.85     5.82    -1.60     0.04     0.67    19.88     3.41P    0.49R    0.11  
Hartlepool           33   42   -2      -4.84    29.30    -4.75    60.95     4.93    -0.19     0.00     0.06     9.31     2.43P    0.46R    0.08  
Plymouth             31   42   -7       3.66    68.02    -2.15    59.77     5.17   -10.37     0.00     0.06     6.40     1.19P    1.25R    0.22  
York                 33   40   +1      -1.66    43.16     5.24    56.82     4.83    -0.27     0.00     0.01     2.03     0.45P    3.07R    0.77  
Dag_&_Red            32   40   -2      -1.17    45.14     1.63    58.71     5.15    -2.54     0.00     0.04     4.71     0.95P    2.01R    0.48  
Morecambe            32   40   -6      -0.90    46.37    -2.08    57.67     5.07    -8.01     0.00     0.01     2.88     0.58P    3.01R    0.72  
Exeter               32   39   -4      -4.56    29.87    -3.69    58.55     5.12    -3.41     0.00     0.01     4.38     1.00P    2.19R    0.53  
Cheltenham           31   39   -4      -3.44    34.19    -4.28    58.49     5.34    -5.33     0.00     0.02     5.02     1.18P    2.45R    0.58  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38   -6       0.70    54.23     3.16    54.96     5.01    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.18P    8.33R    2.55  
Mansfield            32   38  -10       2.28    61.70     1.75    54.80     5.10   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.12P   10.52R    3.52  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37   -2      -3.36    34.53     0.50    56.53     5.24    -3.26     0.00     0.01     2.31     0.45P    5.07R    1.50  
Accrington_Stanley   31   37   -6      -0.85    46.51     0.40    55.11     5.22    -9.43     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.22P    8.82R    2.66  
Bury                 30   36   -2      -6.48    21.94    -4.26    58.72     5.67    -0.76     0.00     0.06     6.66     1.84P    2.78R    0.79  
Portsmouth           32   36  -12      -9.30    14.20   -14.25    55.85     5.21   -11.04     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.39P    7.23R    2.24  
Wycombe              31   34   -5      -6.69    21.01    -2.81    53.11     5.29    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.12P   15.41R    5.92  
Torquay              31   29  -17      -7.76    17.05    -9.03    46.70     5.21   -20.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   64.60R   40.03  
Northampton          31   29  -17      -7.56    17.37    -9.09    47.06     5.23   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   62.32R   37.32  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 1 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            31   69  +50       6.86    81.21    17.25    99.97     4.86    67.48    97.97   100.00    98.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    30   58  +26       8.10    84.46    13.07    84.69     5.33    33.45     1.74    97.40    30.62P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    33   57   +0      14.74    95.82     5.53    76.00     4.80     1.43     0.02    61.34     7.39P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           33   54  +10      -1.07    44.94    -4.98    74.80     4.85    14.56     0.01    54.36    15.03P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.98    89.62     5.51    67.75     4.75    -5.01     0.00     8.04     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         34   53   -4      10.68    89.64     2.62    67.56     4.49    -6.96     0.00     6.54     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        33   51   +9       3.07    64.43     5.07    69.01     4.79     9.26     0.00    13.96     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   49  +14       1.01    54.90    -0.42    79.19     5.78    22.86     0.25    80.90    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.46    52.57     9.46    64.95     4.71    10.56     0.00     3.39     0.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    31   47   +2      -2.61    37.61    -9.24    70.57     5.26     6.66     0.00    22.90     5.75P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     29   44  +15      -2.89    35.54     3.49    70.34     5.74    19.45     0.00    26.33     6.57P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   44   +5      -0.39    48.42     0.22    64.85     5.52     3.10     0.00     5.07     1.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          32   43   +5      -9.72    12.02    -8.98    64.83     5.06     8.82     0.00     3.67     0.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          31   43   +4       2.30    61.32     7.15    62.69     5.30     2.41     0.00     1.91     0.32P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   43   -4      -1.80    41.98    -0.64    57.37     4.54    -7.27     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.65R    0.00  
Woking           33   42   -9       1.07    55.59    -1.20    55.31     4.55   -17.21     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.60R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   26   39   +8       3.15    66.97     7.75    67.54     6.18     9.57     0.00    13.96     2.59P    0.02R    0.00  
Hereford         32   39  -10      -4.81    28.30    -9.44    57.69     4.93   -10.57     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.86R    0.00  
Aldershot        31   32   +5      -8.49    15.62    -7.60    58.49     5.20    14.42     0.00     0.12     0.06P    0.97R    0.00  
Chester          32   32  -18       0.02    51.40     0.35    47.38     4.74   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.71R    0.00  
Dartford         33   32  -19      -5.97    23.58    -6.41    47.56     4.73   -22.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.61R    0.00  
Southport        32   31  -21      -3.73    32.53    -5.44    46.89     4.90   -26.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.82R    0.00  
Tamworth         31   29  -20      -3.47    33.30    -4.28    44.26     4.93   -28.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.69R    0.00  
Hyde_United      34    9  -58     -17.40     0.45   -18.83    16.93     3.78   -74.81     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10