Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 21 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.32    81.61     3.29    81.37     4.37    39.18    32.59    66.02    86.17    97.39    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.72    82.57     0.65    78.15     4.50    30.91    12.29    32.48    63.80    90.59    99.64     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.18    47.48     7.05    82.15     4.27    59.49    47.03    76.21    91.31    98.54    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.59    58.22     7.46    76.39     4.54    45.24     7.80    23.49    50.79    84.62    99.25     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.71    88.39    -3.90    69.81     4.53     8.93     0.25     1.47     5.87    19.29    86.48     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.38    73.17     2.04    66.24     4.80    15.95     0.04     0.30     1.63     6.53    61.64     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.28    18.82    -9.83    64.67     4.54    19.72     0.00     0.02     0.42     3.01    49.80     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.23    67.58     8.81    55.11     4.58     6.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.69     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.42    77.86     1.82    52.42     4.53    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.10    23.94     1.74    43.50     4.46    -4.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.39R    0.16  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.60    26.42     0.32    41.48     4.38   -10.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.76R    0.47  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.63    41.84     1.18    42.10     4.38   -13.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.76R    0.45  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.06    50.94     7.42    39.45     4.39   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.78R    1.95  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.30    43.62    -2.61    40.61     4.36   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.89R    1.26  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.30    70.56     3.19    36.46     4.28   -27.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.78R    9.71  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -2.09    39.04    -5.43    36.40     4.26   -28.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.67R    9.64  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.18    12.50    -1.45    39.65     4.50   -10.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.64R    2.49  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.03    24.13    -5.09    37.20     4.33   -21.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.43R    6.54  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.22    44.59    -3.96    33.44     4.23   -32.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.86R   29.83  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.29    22.20   -12.70    32.93     4.34   -38.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.03R   37.50  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2014, Nott'm_Forest 2 2 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       31   68  +24      13.67    95.44     5.92    94.52     5.18    33.05    83.04    95.08    99.98    96.36P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   60  +22       9.27    87.21     9.67    83.82     5.32    26.78     7.27    37.44    96.39    51.67P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   58  +19       9.76    87.77    10.26    82.81     5.30    25.60     4.62    29.94    94.95    43.91P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             30   56  +13       7.07    80.74     1.70    81.90     5.48    18.88     3.61    21.66    91.91    40.29P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   55  +20       5.27    73.58     9.09    78.93     5.27    25.06     1.11    11.25    83.84    28.76P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         31   50  +14      -1.72    41.84    -0.07    75.74     5.33    22.00     0.31     3.79    65.76    21.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   46   +7      -2.14    39.94    -3.26    70.29     5.47    10.76     0.01     0.38    22.94     6.41P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.17    49.40    -0.66    70.61     5.41    10.97     0.02     0.36    23.93     6.33P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   45   +9       1.39    57.01     7.23    65.17     5.23     8.56     0.00     0.02     4.80     1.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.28    51.86    -0.47    65.07     5.46     2.39     0.00     0.02     4.66     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         31   42   +7      -5.79    24.55    -1.08    65.56     5.33    11.52     0.00     0.03     5.84     1.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.56    53.05     3.63    64.17     5.47     4.25     0.00     0.01     3.79     0.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    31   40   -2       1.80    59.52     4.39    59.21     5.26    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.04P    0.10R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   31   39   +5      -4.18    30.81     3.90    60.46     5.28     6.43     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.17P    0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth     30   36  -13       3.42    67.32     1.07    53.91     5.43   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.67R    0.10  
Blackpool       31   35  -14      -3.96    31.70    -8.95    54.04     5.10   -16.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.78R    0.06  
Sheff_Wed       30   33   -2      -5.43    25.07     1.73    53.34     5.44    -4.20     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.46R    0.09  
Birmingham      31   33   -3     -10.34    10.07    -4.21    53.35     5.35    -3.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.35R    0.05  
Bolton          31   30  -14     -10.52     9.70   -10.79    50.45     5.34   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.74R    0.55  
Doncaster       31   30  -19      -1.63    42.96    -2.94    44.95     5.01   -27.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.01R    5.14  
Millwall        31   28  -28      -3.92    31.37   -11.57    43.31     4.94   -36.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.66R    9.76  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.79     9.44    -8.67    46.30     5.73   -18.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.93R    4.17  
Barnsley        30   23  -22      -8.11    14.22    -6.39    38.89     5.16   -31.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.29R   34.55  
Yeovil          30   22  -21      -5.39    24.40     0.48    37.56     5.09   -31.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.97R   45.54  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2014, Gillingham 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       30   66  +26      13.55    95.51     9.10    93.22     5.57    33.89    38.57    76.75    99.97    83.93P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   32   64  +32       9.35    86.48    15.77    87.53     5.11    38.49     9.65    34.10    99.74    54.16P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   64  +31       4.82    72.30     4.15    94.16     5.46    43.39    51.00    83.46    99.99    90.18P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         31   57  +12      10.71    90.21     6.27    80.56     5.36    16.35     0.57     3.79    91.70    22.96P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       30   54  +14      11.47    90.95    12.38    75.08     5.68    12.34     0.08     0.82    65.59    10.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    30   49   +9      -0.61    47.05    -3.89    76.79     5.64    18.32     0.12     1.06    78.24    23.00P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         31   47   +7       2.57    62.49     4.02    69.60     5.35    10.05     0.00     0.02    26.23     5.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         31   45   +8      -6.06    23.41    -4.82    68.87     5.42    12.88     0.00     0.01    23.43     6.48P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons         31   43   +3      -5.46    25.73    -5.88    64.94     5.48     4.96     0.00     0.00     7.93     1.89P    0.08R    0.00  
Port_Vale       31   43   -3       4.29    69.62     3.29    61.64     5.36    -6.49     0.00     0.00     2.27     0.30P    0.52R    0.01  
Bradford        31   38   +4       0.26    52.01    11.02    55.83     5.25    -0.22     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    6.06R    0.22  
Gillingham      32   38  -12       1.43    57.61    -0.14    53.93     5.03   -17.41     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00    13.43R    0.78  
Coventry        30   37   +5       1.66    57.91    -1.17    61.21     5.68     8.26     0.00     0.00     2.77     0.64P    0.94R    0.03  
Carlisle        31   36  -16       1.33    57.35    -2.93    52.08     5.13   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    24.55R    2.23  
Colchester      28   35   -1       0.11    51.14     4.29    57.50     5.85    -4.41     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.11P    5.20R    0.28  
Oldham          31   34   -9      -1.79    42.07     0.97    52.65     5.34   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   19.61R    1.71  
Bristol_City    32   32   -5     -12.83     7.12    -5.90    52.30     5.29    -3.42     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   19.62R    2.14  
Sheff_Utd       29   32   -9      -9.75    11.07   -11.96    55.30     5.77    -8.81     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   10.37R    0.72  
Tranmere        31   32  -19      -4.44    29.46    -9.75    51.01     5.30   -21.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   31.26R    4.08  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.24    49.21    -0.13    57.23     6.46    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.13P    8.23R    0.72  
Crewe           31   31  -26       0.14    51.76    -6.42    45.77     5.06   -35.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.96R   23.36  
Notts_County    32   30  -12     -11.14     9.18    -7.50    49.20     5.24   -12.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.79R    6.59  
Shrewsbury      31   28  -13      -7.51    17.36    -3.03    45.56     5.15   -17.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.42R   21.16  
Stevenage       29   25  -21      -6.17    21.32    -7.74    43.90     5.56   -27.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.94R   35.99  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 21 February 2014, Bristol_Rovers 2 0 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         31   58  +23       4.01    68.44     6.47    84.22     5.34    31.16    54.26    90.01    99.81    93.28P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           31   55  +15       2.67    62.06     0.60    81.12     5.42    22.98    24.60    74.58    99.02    82.23P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   54  +18       3.50    66.19     8.34    74.79     5.10    20.43     4.12    29.77    91.77    47.03P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             31   54  +13       5.73    75.10     4.47    77.47     5.48    17.26     8.98    47.29    95.82    59.66P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   52  +14       7.28    81.16     8.66    75.83     5.59    16.77     6.24    35.54    92.40    49.14P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   52   +3       7.76    81.89     2.17    70.90     5.11     2.73     0.66     8.40    69.08    20.44P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             31   48  +10      -0.49    47.55     1.23    71.37     5.34    14.07     1.03    12.15    75.92    30.85P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       28   42   +3       9.39    88.14    11.52    64.40     6.07    -0.36     0.11     1.71    25.24     5.29P    0.18R    0.04  
Hartlepool           32   42   +0      -4.16    31.61    -3.71    62.77     5.17     2.47     0.00     0.23    15.17     4.14P    0.17R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red            31   40   -1       0.11    51.22     2.47    60.41     5.34    -1.07     0.00     0.09     7.49     1.55P    0.74R    0.15  
York                 32   39   +1      -1.35    44.19     5.31    56.98     5.04    -0.54     0.00     0.02     2.09     0.40P    2.54R    0.51  
Exeter               31   39   -3      -3.59    33.64    -3.27    60.09     5.40    -2.18     0.00     0.10     7.03     1.68P    0.99R    0.22  
Morecambe            31   39   -6      -0.65    47.54    -2.18    57.91     5.25    -8.17     0.00     0.01     2.95     0.56P    2.30R    0.52  
Plymouth             30   39   -8       2.31    62.34    -2.79    57.67     5.31   -11.95     0.00     0.01     2.82     0.50P    2.63R    0.56  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   38   -5       1.81    59.62     3.85    56.40     5.23    -7.93     0.00     0.01     1.73     0.33P    4.12R    1.14  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37   -2      -3.23    34.99     0.66    56.49     5.28    -3.29     0.00     0.01     1.86     0.43P    3.82R    0.98  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -5.07    26.93    -5.21    56.79     5.55    -6.47     0.00     0.02     2.49     0.57P    4.16R    1.06  
Portsmouth           31   36   -8      -9.85    12.32   -13.09    57.50     5.41    -6.68     0.00     0.01     2.74     0.77P    3.05R    0.76  
Mansfield            31   35  -11       1.07    56.49     1.47    52.61     5.30   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   17.07R    6.10  
Accrington_Stanley   30   34   -7      -2.16    40.04    -0.04    53.08     5.41   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.09P   14.09R    4.96  
Bury                 29   33   -3      -7.81    16.99    -4.77    57.09     5.90    -1.77     0.00     0.04     3.55     0.96P    4.45R    1.40  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.02    16.23    -3.33    50.96     5.46    -8.67     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P   23.70R    9.47  
Torquay              30   29  -16      -6.84    19.36    -8.57    48.43     5.49   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   44.78R   21.22  
Northampton          30   26  -19      -8.69    13.34   -10.27    44.81     5.44   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.22R   50.89  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Aldershot 2 2 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            30   66  +45       7.26    82.86    15.86    97.99     5.15    61.62    95.64   100.00    97.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    30   58  +26       8.39    85.99    13.47    84.69     5.35    33.45     3.62    97.31    31.87P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.24    96.56     5.76    76.70     5.05     1.96     0.07    64.75     8.46P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         33   53   +1      10.38    89.47     4.94    69.06     4.67    -1.68     0.00    11.82     1.68P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.88    89.48     5.34    67.89     4.75    -4.82     0.00     7.78     1.10P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           32   51   +9      -2.59    37.44    -5.84    72.62     5.10    12.80     0.01    36.44    10.36P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        32   50   +9       3.33    65.63     4.86    69.06     5.01     8.68     0.00    14.69     2.74P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   49  +14       1.17    55.99    -0.17    79.01     5.75    22.58     0.65    79.56    25.55P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10      -0.01    50.54     8.61    65.10     4.76    10.86     0.00     3.66     0.66P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    30   46   +2      -1.81    40.96    -8.66    71.39     5.46     7.28     0.00    28.26     7.21P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.65    53.60     0.58    66.19     5.75     4.08     0.00     8.23     1.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          31   43   +6      -8.78    14.11    -8.75    66.78     5.23    10.71     0.00     8.14     2.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.51    62.39     6.91    63.03     5.55     2.39     0.00     2.50     0.44P    0.05R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   42   -4      -0.85    46.40     0.08    58.37     4.76    -6.43     0.00     0.06     0.02P    0.50R    0.00  
Forest_Green     28   41  +13      -3.63    31.92     2.88    69.62     5.95    18.92     0.01    22.91     5.82P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         31   39   -8      -4.24    30.39    -8.71    59.21     5.15    -8.33     0.00     0.29     0.06P    0.49R    0.00  
Woking           32   39  -10      -0.31    49.11    -1.80    53.67     4.77   -18.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.10R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.14    67.19     7.15    67.25     6.34     8.61     0.00    13.24     2.44P    0.03R    0.00  
Aldershot        30   31   +5      -7.81    17.35    -7.10    59.73     5.45    15.88     0.00     0.37     0.11P    0.67R    0.00  
Chester          31   31  -18       0.24    52.69     0.28    47.02     4.95   -25.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.63R    0.00  
Southport        31   31  -19      -3.25    34.39    -5.10    47.72     5.07   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.40R    0.00  
Dartford         32   29  -21      -6.81    19.82    -7.08    45.78     4.94   -24.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.36R    0.00  
Tamworth         30   28  -20      -3.14    34.55    -4.24    44.66     5.18   -28.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.74R    0.00  
Hyde_United      33    8  -58     -17.25     0.35   -19.27    16.58     3.98   -76.10     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10