Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 20 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.39    81.54     3.45    81.34     4.38    39.11    31.87    65.55    85.56    97.23    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.62    82.28     0.51    78.23     4.49    30.99    12.65    32.76    64.15    90.60    99.68     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.32    46.39     6.82    82.23     4.22    59.62    47.62    76.58    91.47    98.66    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.56    57.76     7.39    76.42     4.52    45.31     7.61    23.35    50.80    84.55    99.32     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.61    87.86    -4.09    69.88     4.56     9.07     0.22     1.42     6.04    19.52    86.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.35    73.25     1.95    66.27     4.80    16.02     0.03     0.31     1.55     6.49    62.15     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.22    18.95    -9.68    64.60     4.53    19.63     0.00     0.03     0.42     2.92    49.03     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.35    68.14     8.97    55.10     4.58     6.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.56     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.45    77.86     1.86    52.45     4.51    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.01    24.71     1.86    43.47     4.49    -4.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.53R    0.18  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.47    26.78     0.49    41.41     4.37   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.82R    0.48  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.61    42.02     1.22    42.04     4.35   -13.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.87R    0.41  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.09    50.64     7.38    39.44     4.39   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.50R    2.03  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.42    42.97    -2.73    40.64     4.39   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.89R    1.33  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.16    69.55     2.97    36.51     4.30   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.05R    9.68  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -1.99    39.46    -5.34    36.36     4.27   -28.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.63R    9.75  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.08    13.12    -1.33    39.62     4.50   -10.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.90R    2.44  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.02    24.16    -5.03    37.15     4.32   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.58R    6.49  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.13    44.92    -3.79    33.41     4.21   -32.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.82R   29.78  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.37    22.00   -12.88    32.98     4.36   -38.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.41R   37.43  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2014, Nott'm_Forest 2 2 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       31   68  +24      13.55    95.36     5.78    94.62     5.18    33.18    83.57    95.11    99.98    96.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   60  +22       9.33    87.32     9.70    83.78     5.35    26.74     7.04    37.40    96.31    51.98P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   58  +19       9.66    87.50    10.09    82.87     5.32    25.72     4.62    30.48    94.89    44.37P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             30   56  +13       7.08    80.83     1.70    81.87     5.44    18.85     3.31    21.25    91.66    40.13P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   55  +20       5.35    74.14     9.23    78.87     5.23    24.97     1.10    10.95    83.71    28.34P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         31   50  +14      -1.66    42.02     0.06    75.72     5.30    21.98     0.33     3.85    65.40    21.35P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   46   +7      -2.32    38.66    -3.48    70.40     5.50    10.88     0.02     0.48    23.46     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.18    49.48    -0.62    70.55     5.40    10.91     0.01     0.38    23.34     6.07P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   45   +9       1.39    56.81     7.19    65.20     5.27     8.56     0.00     0.03     5.17     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.19    51.18    -0.59    65.12     5.50     2.44     0.00     0.02     4.92     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         31   42   +7      -5.99    23.68    -1.35    65.63     5.35    11.60     0.00     0.03     6.01     1.47P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.51    52.61     3.54    64.17     5.51     4.30     0.00     0.03     3.94     0.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    31   40   -2       1.80    59.64     4.43    59.19     5.22    -4.25     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.04P    0.11R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   39   +5      -4.01    31.59     4.20    60.40     5.31     6.34     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth     30   36  -13       3.49    67.71     1.16    53.88     5.46   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.65R    0.12  
Blackpool       31   35  -14      -3.99    31.62    -9.00    54.08     5.15   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.73R    0.07  
Sheff_Wed       30   33   -2      -5.33    25.47     1.94    53.26     5.40    -4.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.42R    0.10  
Birmingham      31   33   -3     -10.24    10.25    -4.09    53.30     5.34    -3.26     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.30R    0.07  
Bolton          31   30  -14     -10.41     9.97   -10.70    50.49     5.37   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.57R    0.57  
Doncaster       31   30  -19      -1.42    44.08    -2.58    44.84     5.02   -27.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.95R    5.45  
Millwall        31   28  -28      -3.97    31.27   -11.75    43.36     4.93   -36.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.51R    9.46  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.96     9.35    -8.97    46.42     5.75   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.37R    3.97  
Barnsley        30   23  -22      -8.12    13.97    -6.43    38.91     5.14   -31.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.18R   34.17  
Yeovil          30   22  -21      -5.33    24.82     0.54    37.50     5.09   -31.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.15R   46.03  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2014, Gillingham 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       30   66  +26      13.41    95.39     8.89    93.31     5.52    33.99    39.58    77.42    99.98    84.19P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   32   64  +32       9.29    86.23    15.61    87.59     5.15    38.59    10.28    34.42    99.69    53.83P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   64  +31       5.11    73.37     4.65    93.96     5.48    43.05    49.37    82.45    99.97    89.32P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         31   57  +12      10.78    90.27     6.39    80.51     5.34    16.28     0.52     3.72    91.51    22.88P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       30   54  +14      11.50    91.18    12.38    75.06     5.71    12.33     0.11     0.75    65.46    10.91P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    30   49   +9      -0.75    46.23    -4.13    76.84     5.63    18.47     0.14     1.18    78.51    23.68P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         31   47   +7       2.67    63.08     4.15    69.62     5.38    10.05     0.00     0.02    26.31     5.54P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         31   45   +8      -5.87    24.04    -4.58    68.80     5.46    12.77     0.00     0.03    23.53     6.41P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         31   43   +3      -5.59    25.40    -6.06    65.06     5.47     5.11     0.00     0.00     8.13     1.94P    0.07R    0.00  
Port_Vale       31   43   -3       4.25    69.64     3.25    61.65     5.33    -6.52     0.00     0.00     2.15     0.29P    0.50R    0.00  
Bradford        31   38   +4       0.19    51.65    10.91    55.86     5.26    -0.17     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    6.04R    0.24  
Gillingham      32   38  -12       1.43    57.82    -0.17    53.94     5.04   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   13.27R    0.71  
Coventry        30   37   +5       1.68    57.75    -1.11    61.21     5.66     8.25     0.00     0.00     2.59     0.63P    0.94R    0.04  
Carlisle        31   36  -16       1.20    56.59    -3.13    52.10     5.14   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   24.57R    2.38  
Colchester      28   35   -1      -0.15    50.04     3.92    57.67     5.90    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.13P    5.08R    0.33  
Oldham          31   34   -9      -1.81    42.02     0.96    52.59     5.31   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   20.14R    1.72  
Bristol_City    32   32   -5     -12.80     7.09    -5.79    52.23     5.32    -3.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   20.20R    2.21  
Sheff_Utd       29   32   -9      -9.47    11.87   -11.56    55.20     5.78    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   10.47R    0.80  
Tranmere        31   32  -19      -4.41    30.09    -9.64    50.97     5.29   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.63R    3.84  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.12    50.06     0.02    57.10     6.44    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.14P    8.32R    0.71  
Crewe           31   31  -26       0.16    52.16    -6.35    45.77     5.06   -35.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.78R   23.62  
Notts_County    32   30  -12     -11.26     8.98    -7.69    49.21     5.21   -12.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.24R    6.42  
Shrewsbury      31   28  -13      -7.57    17.13    -3.17    45.64     5.16   -17.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.12R   20.41  
Stevenage       29   25  -21      -6.17    21.35    -7.78    43.91     5.58   -27.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.63R   36.58  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         31   58  +23       3.89    67.82     6.25    84.35     5.36    31.31    54.79    89.65    99.78    93.07P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           31   55  +15       2.58    61.53     0.55    81.11     5.42    23.00    23.82    73.40    99.01    81.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   54  +18       3.33    65.14     8.11    74.86     5.11    20.50     4.06    29.22    91.58    46.48P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             31   54  +13       5.83    75.59     4.60    77.50     5.51    17.30     8.64    46.39    95.40    59.05P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   52  +14       7.28    80.95     8.70    75.84     5.61    16.77     6.13    34.89    91.78    48.19P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   52   +5       8.49    84.46     3.27    72.46     5.30     5.05     1.53    13.06    77.41    25.92P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             31   48  +10      -0.52    47.74     1.21    71.34     5.31    14.04     0.92    11.37    74.73    29.58P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       28   42   +3       9.33    88.20    11.44    64.40     6.02    -0.37     0.12     1.53    23.94     5.10P    0.16R    0.03  
Hartlepool           32   42   +0      -4.15    31.64    -3.68    62.81     5.12     2.47     0.00     0.19    13.92     3.72P    0.13R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red            31   40   -1       0.12    51.12     2.47    60.40     5.37    -1.10     0.00     0.08     7.15     1.46P    0.75R    0.18  
York                 32   39   +1      -1.53    43.25     5.04    57.05     5.04    -0.42     0.00     0.01     1.89     0.36P    2.20R    0.44  
Exeter               31   39   -3      -3.54    33.91    -3.20    60.03     5.37    -2.31     0.00     0.09     6.44     1.51P    0.92R    0.22  
Morecambe            31   39   -6      -0.61    47.60    -2.17    57.95     5.27    -8.11     0.00     0.02     2.81     0.58P    2.12R    0.55  
Plymouth             30   39   -8       2.33    62.37    -2.78    57.70     5.31   -11.89     0.00     0.02     2.55     0.47P    2.63R    0.58  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   38   -5       1.99    60.52     4.12    56.26     5.28    -8.14     0.00     0.01     1.55     0.30P    4.31R    1.17  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -5.01    27.10    -5.14    56.73     5.50    -6.56     0.00     0.02     2.27     0.56P    4.00R    1.02  
Portsmouth           31   36   -8      -9.61    13.18   -12.73    57.40     5.41    -6.80     0.00     0.01     2.45     0.69P    3.02R    0.83  
Mansfield            31   35  -11       1.09    56.27     1.44    52.63     5.32   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   16.43R    6.04  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.27    30.23    -0.45    54.57     5.48    -5.72     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.23P    8.33R    2.60  
Accrington_Stanley   30   34   -7      -2.16    40.06    -0.08    53.10     5.40   -11.01     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P   13.42R    4.81  
Bury                 29   33   -3      -7.84    16.99    -4.84    57.19     5.90    -1.61     0.00     0.04     3.49     0.89P    4.15R    1.27  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.14    15.84    -3.47    50.94     5.47    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P   23.09R    9.56  
Torquay              30   29  -16      -6.73    19.91    -8.40    48.37     5.45   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   44.29R   20.97  
Northampton          30   26  -19      -8.72    13.04   -10.26    44.86     5.40   -23.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.05R   49.70  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Aldershot 2 2 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            30   66  +45       7.00    81.86    15.40    98.08     5.18    61.81    95.77   100.00    97.53P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    30   58  +26       8.38    85.47    13.38    84.73     5.34    33.53     3.55    97.34    31.95P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.30    96.56     5.88    76.63     5.06     1.85     0.12    64.46     8.32P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         33   53   +1      10.27    89.39     4.75    69.15     4.71    -1.55     0.00    12.24     1.74P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.70    89.04     5.06    68.00     4.76    -4.61     0.00     8.29     1.11P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           32   51   +9      -2.53    38.35    -5.74    72.59     5.10    12.72     0.01    36.22    10.27P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        32   50   +9       3.30    65.57     4.86    69.08     5.01     8.74     0.00    14.80     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   49  +14       1.04    55.16    -0.37    79.00     5.78    22.65     0.53    79.66    25.60P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.06    50.47     8.75    65.14     4.77    10.87     0.00     3.77     0.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    30   46   +2      -1.72    41.53    -8.51    71.33     5.45     7.21     0.01    27.54     6.82P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.72    53.45     0.69    66.28     5.74     4.21     0.00     8.56     1.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          31   43   +6      -8.53    14.81    -8.37    66.60     5.24    10.43     0.00     7.81     2.16P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.51    62.17     6.88    62.99     5.54     2.32     0.00     2.48     0.45P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   42   -4      -0.79    46.83     0.28    58.34     4.73    -6.43     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.50R    0.00  
Forest_Green     28   41  +13      -3.54    32.13     2.94    69.66     5.90    18.92     0.01    23.12     6.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         31   39   -8      -4.27    30.34    -8.72    59.27     5.15    -8.23     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.46R    0.00  
Woking           32   39  -10      -0.19    49.83    -1.64    53.65     4.81   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.38R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.35    67.98     7.42    67.12     6.33     8.40     0.01    13.00     2.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot        30   31   +5      -7.71    17.09    -6.90    59.67     5.40    15.74     0.00     0.38     0.12P    0.62R    0.00  
Chester          31   31  -18      -0.03    51.14    -0.11    47.08     4.93   -25.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.33R    0.00  
Southport        31   31  -19      -3.20    34.65    -5.10    47.65     5.05   -25.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.90R    0.00  
Dartford         32   29  -21      -6.97    19.31    -7.30    45.84     4.97   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.69R    0.00  
Tamworth         30   28  -20      -3.14    34.49    -4.28    44.60     5.14   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.03R    0.00  
Hyde_United      33    8  -58     -17.26     0.41   -19.28    16.61     3.98   -76.07     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10