Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 19 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.37    81.78     3.49    81.36     4.38    39.16    32.32    65.92    85.93    97.36    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.64    82.29     0.45    78.23     4.48    31.00    12.80    32.96    64.15    90.68    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.39    46.31     6.77    82.20     4.22    59.58    47.18    76.41    91.55    98.56    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.73    59.05     7.76    76.34     4.52    45.18     7.44    22.91    50.24    84.26    99.20     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.70    88.41    -3.93    69.88     4.57     9.07     0.23     1.46     6.12    19.63    86.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.29    72.55     1.91    66.25     4.80    15.97     0.04     0.28     1.56     6.55    61.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.37    18.45    -9.99    64.69     4.52    19.78     0.00     0.06     0.44     2.94    49.68     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.28    67.47     8.88    55.10     4.59     6.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.57     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.46    77.94     1.87    52.41     4.51    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.09    24.12     1.76    43.45     4.50    -4.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.50R    0.20  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.60    26.36     0.34    41.43     4.38   -10.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.84R    0.50  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.55    42.10     1.26    42.07     4.39   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.88R    0.47  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.11    50.48     7.24    39.45     4.37   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.57R    1.94  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.36    43.17    -2.64    40.64     4.36   -18.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.83R    1.18  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.25    70.11     3.07    36.52     4.27   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.90R    9.35  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -1.93    39.71    -5.25    36.38     4.27   -28.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.17R    9.88  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.12    12.61    -1.35    39.61     4.50   -10.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.77R    2.41  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.07    23.61    -5.08    37.13     4.35   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.13R    6.90  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.08    45.16    -3.78    33.39     4.19   -33.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.13R   29.96  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.33    22.26   -12.77    32.97     4.36   -38.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.28R   37.21  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2014, Nott'm_Forest 2 2 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       31   68  +24      13.65    95.54     5.90    94.52     5.18    33.05    83.30    95.08    99.98    96.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   60  +22       9.24    87.23     9.62    83.80     5.32    26.74     7.08    37.76    96.44    52.12P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   58  +19       9.73    87.61    10.21    82.84     5.30    25.68     4.75    29.99    95.09    44.18P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             30   56  +13       7.10    80.74     1.74    81.89     5.45    18.86     3.52    21.18    91.85    40.40P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   55  +20       5.44    74.18     9.35    78.84     5.27    24.93     1.03    11.32    83.68    28.55P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         31   50  +14      -1.56    42.54     0.23    75.68     5.34    21.92     0.27     3.77    64.94    20.96P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   46   +7      -2.44    38.09    -3.67    70.39     5.50    10.93     0.03     0.44    23.66     6.66P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.11    49.55    -0.54    70.52     5.37    10.85     0.02     0.36    23.16     5.94P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   45   +9       1.33    56.65     7.08    65.24     5.23     8.63     0.00     0.03     5.16     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.34    51.97    -0.40    65.07     5.48     2.38     0.00     0.02     4.75     0.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         31   42   +7      -6.05    23.53    -1.43    65.64     5.37    11.63     0.00     0.03     6.18     1.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.51    52.88     3.53    64.17     5.50     4.31     0.00     0.02     3.85     0.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    31   40   -2       1.80    59.54     4.47    59.18     5.24    -4.25     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   39   +5      -4.00    31.45     4.13    60.45     5.32     6.43     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.20P    0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth     30   36  -13       3.64    68.53     1.43    53.81     5.46   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     2.68R    0.14  
Blackpool       31   35  -14      -4.16    31.10    -9.23    54.10     5.13   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.75R    0.05  
Sheff_Wed       30   33   -2      -5.41    24.93     1.78    53.27     5.43    -4.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.48R    0.08  
Birmingham      31   33   -3     -10.11    10.81    -3.95    53.25     5.35    -3.31     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.36R    0.05  
Bolton          31   30  -14     -10.54     9.68   -10.85    50.49     5.37   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.90R    0.63  
Doncaster       31   30  -19      -1.60    42.97    -2.91    44.92     5.07   -27.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.47R    5.40  
Millwall        31   28  -28      -4.12    30.64   -11.94    43.48     4.97   -35.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.72R    9.39  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.82     9.35    -8.75    46.33     5.74   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.90R    4.29  
Barnsley        30   23  -22      -7.95    14.71    -6.15    38.81     5.13   -31.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.79R   35.35  
Yeovil          30   22  -21      -5.42    24.19     0.34    37.65     5.08   -31.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.83R   44.63  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2014, Gillingham 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       30   66  +26      13.56    95.51     9.13    93.19     5.50    33.81    38.40    76.67    99.98    83.60P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   32   64  +32       9.29    86.32    15.66    87.59     5.17    38.59    10.36    35.25    99.71    54.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   64  +31       5.03    73.16     4.52    94.00     5.46    43.13    50.51    82.46    99.98    89.56P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         31   57  +12      10.77    90.38     6.41    80.49     5.32    16.28     0.56     3.77    91.77    23.12P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       30   54  +14      11.37    90.85    12.22    75.14     5.67    12.45     0.08     0.72    65.94    10.91P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    30   49   +9      -0.58    47.09    -3.88    76.72     5.65    18.28     0.09     1.08    77.67    23.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         31   47   +7       2.55    62.34     3.97    69.64     5.34    10.12     0.00     0.03    26.44     5.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         31   45   +8      -5.97    23.65    -4.73    68.81     5.42    12.77     0.00     0.01    23.55     6.40P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons         31   43   +3      -5.41    25.97    -5.78    64.93     5.43     4.95     0.00     0.00     7.80     1.87P    0.07R    0.00  
Port_Vale       31   43   -3       4.26    69.54     3.24    61.66     5.39    -6.46     0.00     0.00     2.25     0.33P    0.61R    0.01  
Bradford        31   38   +4       0.18    51.60    10.92    55.91     5.27    -0.10     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    6.02R    0.23  
Gillingham      32   38  -12       1.59    58.27     0.08    53.89     5.05   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   13.94R    0.84  
Coventry        30   37   +5       1.68    58.05    -1.15    61.22     5.68     8.29     0.00     0.00     2.75     0.67P    0.91R    0.03  
Carlisle        31   36  -16       1.24    57.08    -3.05    52.13     5.14   -23.37     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    24.23R    2.38  
Colchester      28   35   -1       0.06    50.73     4.22    57.58     5.87    -4.33     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.10P    5.08R    0.28  
Oldham          31   34   -9      -1.71    42.38     1.07    52.54     5.30   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   20.26R    1.78  
Bristol_City    32   32   -5     -12.93     6.82    -5.97    52.25     5.30    -3.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   20.02R    2.29  
Sheff_Utd       29   32   -9      -9.63    11.28   -11.81    55.30     5.72    -8.78     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   10.17R    0.69  
Tranmere        31   32  -19      -4.40    29.98    -9.67    50.95     5.32   -21.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.87R    4.18  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.18    49.86    -0.08    57.13     6.47    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.15P    8.60R    0.80  
Crewe           31   31  -26      -0.02    51.24    -6.70    45.88     5.05   -35.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.15R   22.95  
Notts_County    32   30  -12     -11.28     8.91    -7.71    49.26     5.19   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.21R    6.38  
Shrewsbury      31   28  -13      -7.58    17.50    -3.13    45.62     5.14   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.22R   20.95  
Stevenage       29   25  -21      -6.22    21.00    -7.81    43.95     5.55   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.65R   36.20  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         31   58  +23       4.06    68.31     6.53    84.17     5.32    31.09    53.76    89.08    99.81    92.56P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           31   55  +15       2.61    62.02     0.58    81.11     5.42    22.94    24.45    73.67    98.96    81.82P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   54  +18       3.40    65.49     8.21    74.88     5.12    20.50     4.21    29.28    91.44    46.44P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             31   54  +13       5.81    75.47     4.62    77.45     5.51    17.22     8.84    45.99    95.12    58.57P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   52  +14       7.30    81.20     8.66    75.85     5.62    16.81     6.11    34.84    91.74    48.30P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   52   +5       8.49    84.80     3.28    72.44     5.30     5.02     1.52    13.25    77.26    25.94P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             31   48  +10      -0.58    47.10     1.11    71.39     5.36    14.12     1.01    11.83    74.64    29.83P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       28   42   +3       9.24    87.85    11.32    64.49     6.06    -0.26     0.10     1.56    24.48     5.15P    0.11R    0.02  
Hartlepool           32   42   +0      -4.37    30.88    -4.01    62.88     5.19     2.57     0.00     0.22    14.49     4.07P    0.15R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red            31   40   -1       0.05    50.78     2.42    60.41     5.35    -1.07     0.01     0.09     7.00     1.47P    0.71R    0.16  
York                 32   39   +1      -1.47    43.78     5.18    57.01     5.07    -0.50     0.00     0.01     2.05     0.42P    2.23R    0.50  
Exeter               31   39   -3      -3.62    33.65    -3.30    60.03     5.39    -2.28     0.00     0.07     6.33     1.50P    0.94R    0.23  
Morecambe            31   39   -6      -0.51    48.09    -2.00    57.89     5.29    -8.18     0.00     0.02     2.63     0.54P    2.27R    0.52  
Plymouth             30   39   -8       2.18    61.64    -2.94    57.78     5.33   -11.82     0.00     0.03     2.60     0.50P    2.42R    0.52  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   38   -5       1.80    59.72     3.84    56.37     5.28    -7.96     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.27P    4.13R    1.08  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -4.85    27.62    -4.92    56.66     5.54    -6.64     0.00     0.01     2.17     0.52P    4.11R    1.11  
Portsmouth           31   36   -8      -9.64    13.20   -12.76    57.41     5.42    -6.77     0.00     0.02     2.47     0.70P    3.08R    0.84  
Mansfield            31   35  -11       0.99    55.95     1.34    52.70     5.30   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   16.16R    5.87  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.17    30.66    -0.36    54.53     5.49    -5.74     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.20P    8.53R    2.81  
Accrington_Stanley   30   34   -7      -1.96    41.20     0.14    53.03     5.42   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P   13.76R    4.98  
Bury                 29   33   -3      -7.83    17.19    -4.76    57.14     5.94    -1.68     0.00     0.04     3.45     1.03P    4.22R    1.31  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.30    15.17    -3.74    51.05     5.46    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   22.02R    9.19  
Torquay              30   29  -16      -6.68    20.27    -8.32    48.35     5.49   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   44.92R   21.30  
Northampton          30   26  -19      -8.57    13.68   -10.10    44.84     5.40   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.23R   49.54  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Aldershot 2 2 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            30   66  +45       7.26    82.63    15.82    97.99     5.18    61.61    95.72   100.00    97.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    30   58  +26       8.28    85.17    13.28    84.72     5.31    33.53     3.59    97.39    31.91P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.17    96.56     5.65    76.75     5.04     2.05     0.11    65.19     8.35P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         33   53   +1      10.30    89.45     4.78    69.12     4.70    -1.62     0.00    12.00     1.70P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.85    89.63     5.33    67.85     4.77    -4.88     0.00     7.90     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           32   51   +9      -2.33    39.02    -5.46    72.55     5.09    12.65     0.01    35.58     9.87P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        32   50   +9       3.17    64.92     4.63    69.10     5.02     8.75     0.00    14.90     2.73P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   49  +14       1.19    55.76    -0.16    78.99     5.77    22.58     0.53    79.26    25.60P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.33    51.90     9.20    65.02     4.78    10.69     0.00     3.54     0.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    30   46   +2      -1.94    40.23    -8.88    71.47     5.44     7.42     0.01    28.41     7.39P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.49    52.44     0.32    66.36     5.75     4.32     0.00     8.52     1.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          31   43   +6      -8.62    14.21    -8.52    66.65     5.25    10.50     0.00     7.88     2.26P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.52    62.50     6.92    62.96     5.53     2.29     0.00     2.37     0.42P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   42   -4      -1.01    45.77    -0.11    58.45     4.77    -6.28     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.50R    0.00  
Forest_Green     28   41  +13      -3.50    32.48     3.07    69.63     5.89    18.96     0.00    22.80     5.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         31   39   -8      -4.28    30.67    -8.76    59.28     5.16    -8.21     0.00     0.26     0.08P    0.47R    0.00  
Woking           32   39  -10      -0.09    49.94    -1.49    53.63     4.78   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.30R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.18    67.22     7.15    67.28     6.43     8.63     0.01    13.52     2.72P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot        30   31   +5      -7.84    16.99    -7.12    59.65     5.42    15.77     0.00     0.37     0.13P    0.69R    0.00  
Chester          31   31  -18       0.07    51.40     0.02    47.07     4.92   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.94R    0.00  
Southport        31   31  -19      -3.05    35.52    -4.83    47.61     5.07   -25.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.04R    0.00  
Dartford         32   29  -21      -7.00    19.21    -7.38    45.87     5.00   -24.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.42R    0.00  
Tamworth         30   28  -20      -3.04    35.00    -4.13    44.58     5.13   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.53R    0.00  
Hyde_United      33    8  -58     -17.29     0.37   -19.33    16.59     3.99   -76.10     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10