Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 18 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.34    81.71     3.34    81.39     4.39    39.23    32.72    66.20    85.83    97.30    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.71    82.49     0.58    78.20     4.52    30.93    12.56    32.53    64.20    90.51    99.63     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.29    46.69     6.81    82.17     4.24    59.55    46.78    76.26    91.35    98.58    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.72    58.96     7.75    76.39     4.52    45.24     7.70    23.33    50.72    84.79    99.24     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.77    88.48    -3.85    69.79     4.55     8.92     0.21     1.36     5.89    19.22    86.43     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.35    72.80     2.02    66.22     4.83    15.91     0.03     0.28     1.59     6.54    61.76     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.33    18.58    -9.89    64.68     4.53    19.71     0.00     0.04     0.41     3.03    49.77     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.30    67.56     8.86    55.13     4.59     6.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.72     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.47    77.90     1.91    52.39     4.51    -8.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.04    24.57     1.85    43.43     4.47    -4.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.50R    0.14  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.57    26.42     0.37    41.45     4.36   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.89R    0.47  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.53    42.28     1.32    42.06     4.37   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.86R    0.46  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.16    50.28     7.18    39.48     4.38   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.37R    1.91  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.32    43.41    -2.56    40.60     4.38   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.05R    1.34  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.31    70.76     3.22    36.47     4.28   -27.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.83R    9.47  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -2.08    39.13    -5.37    36.38     4.25   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.25R    9.75  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.29    12.51    -1.64    39.68     4.51    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.45R    2.38  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.16    23.37    -5.25    37.21     4.35   -21.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.19R    6.56  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.14    44.59    -3.83    33.42     4.23   -32.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.01R   29.90  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.36    22.09   -12.82    32.98     4.40   -38.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.60R   37.62  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Sheff_Wed 0 1 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      13.94    96.13     5.84    94.86     5.38    33.02    83.17    95.01   100.00    96.36P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   60  +22       9.40    87.50     9.85    83.78     5.35    26.71     6.90    36.41    96.16    50.80P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   58  +19       9.56    87.31    10.00    82.90     5.31    25.81     4.54    30.02    94.97    44.05P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             30   56  +13       6.95    80.34     1.54    81.90     5.45    18.91     3.36    20.85    91.76    39.97P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   54  +20       5.93    76.57     9.54    79.29     5.48    25.02     1.70    13.16    84.39    29.99P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         31   50  +14      -1.59    42.24     0.15    75.65     5.36    21.91     0.29     3.64    64.41    21.09P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   46   +7      -2.46    38.32    -3.75    70.47     5.49    11.00     0.01     0.44    24.06     6.90P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.29    48.48    -0.81    70.63     5.41    11.03     0.03     0.36    23.86     6.47P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   45   +9       1.46    57.20     7.31    65.17     5.23     8.52     0.00     0.02     4.82     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.20    51.19    -0.62    65.14     5.45     2.46     0.00     0.03     4.64     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         31   42   +7      -5.95    23.71    -1.27    65.58     5.35    11.53     0.00     0.03     5.86     1.51P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.55    52.83     3.57    64.16     5.50     4.30     0.00     0.02     3.79     0.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield    31   40   -2       1.84    59.48     4.46    59.17     5.24    -4.25     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.03P    0.09R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   39   +5      -4.14    30.81     3.94    60.52     5.31     6.53     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth     30   36  -13       3.44    67.52     1.08    53.95     5.46   -19.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.60R    0.09  
Blackpool       31   35  -14      -4.05    31.46    -9.10    54.08     5.12   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.63R    0.05  
Sheff_Wed       30   33   -2      -5.37    25.25     1.79    53.22     5.43    -4.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.47R    0.09  
Birmingham      31   33   -3     -10.29    10.25    -4.17    53.30     5.34    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.35R    0.08  
Bolton          31   30  -14     -10.56     9.48   -10.89    50.54     5.36   -14.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.40R    0.55  
Doncaster       31   30  -19      -1.37    44.13    -2.56    44.81     5.01   -27.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.61R    5.44  
Millwall        31   28  -28      -4.06    30.96   -11.81    43.39     4.94   -36.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.11R    9.57  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.65     9.86    -8.45    46.22     5.77   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.39R    4.26  
Barnsley        30   23  -22      -7.95    14.53    -6.21    38.78     5.15   -31.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.50R   35.00  
Yeovil          30   22  -21      -5.30    24.83     0.53    37.56     5.06   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.80R   44.87  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Bradford 1 0 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       30   66  +26      13.56    95.43     9.08    93.21     5.54    33.86    38.76    77.11    99.97    83.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   32   64  +32       9.35    86.50    15.74    87.55     5.13    38.56    10.18    34.37    99.77    53.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   64  +31       4.95    72.89     4.43    94.04     5.46    43.17    50.30    82.86    99.99    89.80P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         31   57  +12      10.63    89.90     6.21    80.53     5.33    16.35     0.54     3.77    91.87    23.12P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       30   54  +14      11.35    90.92    12.21    75.15     5.65    12.41     0.11     0.75    66.00    11.01P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    30   49   +9      -0.74    46.32    -4.07    76.80     5.66    18.44     0.11     1.10    78.01    23.46P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         31   47   +7       2.71    63.16     4.27    69.60     5.35    10.03     0.00     0.02    26.04     5.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         31   45   +8      -5.98    23.55    -4.70    68.84     5.39    12.81     0.00     0.02    23.24     6.12P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         31   43   +3      -5.57    25.64    -6.04    65.01     5.44     5.09     0.00     0.00     8.01     1.97P    0.05R    0.00  
Port_Vale       31   43   -3       4.26    69.69     3.29    61.69     5.39    -6.43     0.00     0.00     2.24     0.30P    0.56R    0.01  
Bradford        31   38   +4       0.17    51.44    10.86    55.91     5.27    -0.09     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    5.73R    0.22  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.44    62.09     0.32    55.32     5.26   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P    9.25R    0.49  
Coventry        30   37   +5       1.69    58.06    -1.09    61.19     5.67     8.23     0.00     0.00     2.71     0.63P    0.95R    0.03  
Carlisle        31   36  -16       1.28    57.06    -3.02    52.10     5.12   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.19R    2.32  
Colchester      28   35   -1       0.08    51.32     4.23    57.54     5.88    -4.37     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.11P    5.39R    0.36  
Oldham          31   34   -9      -1.74    42.04     1.07    52.55     5.29   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.69R    1.73  
Bristol_City    32   32   -5     -12.95     6.67    -6.02    52.28     5.31    -3.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.49R    2.12  
Tranmere        31   32  -19      -4.26    30.64    -9.47    50.95     5.29   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.39R    4.17  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.16    49.83    -0.04    57.13     6.44    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.14P    8.35R    0.77  
Crewe           31   31  -26       0.00    51.35    -6.62    45.83     5.08   -35.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.14R   22.85  
Notts_County    32   30  -12     -11.20     9.01    -7.63    49.23     5.22   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.20R    6.36  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.93     7.91   -12.27    53.58     5.98    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   17.18R    1.87  
Shrewsbury      31   28  -13      -7.52    17.55    -2.99    45.60     5.16   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.93R   20.79  
Stevenage       29   25  -21      -6.15    21.65    -7.75    43.92     5.54   -27.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.49R   35.92  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         31   58  +23       3.97    68.24     6.32    84.24     5.32    31.18    54.06    89.48    99.82    92.82P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           31   55  +15       2.57    61.41     0.50    81.16     5.39    23.07    24.42    73.66    99.05    81.97P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   54  +18       3.31    64.95     8.12    74.88     5.11    20.53     4.24    29.39    91.60    47.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             31   54  +13       5.87    75.64     4.71    77.46     5.49    17.24     8.75    45.88    95.42    58.42P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   52  +14       7.32    81.39     8.77    75.84     5.59    16.76     6.16    34.92    91.92    48.21P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   52   +5       8.46    84.49     3.26    72.46     5.30     5.06     1.36    13.27    77.57    26.19P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             31   48  +10      -0.37    48.16     1.40    71.29     5.33    13.98     0.89    11.39    74.41    29.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       28   42   +3       9.47    88.52    11.69    64.26     6.10    -0.55     0.11     1.49    23.48     4.84P    0.22R    0.05  
Hartlepool           32   42   +0      -4.34    30.89    -3.94    62.82     5.19     2.53     0.01     0.24    14.39     3.97P    0.17R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red            31   40   -1       0.11    51.28     2.50    60.36     5.33    -1.13     0.00     0.10     6.84     1.43P    0.81R    0.18  
York                 32   39   +1      -1.44    43.83     5.19    57.02     5.06    -0.48     0.00     0.01     2.05     0.40P    2.17R    0.50  
Exeter               31   39   -3      -3.75    33.04    -3.47    60.07     5.37    -2.19     0.00     0.08     6.47     1.67P    0.91R    0.20  
Morecambe            31   39   -6      -0.54    48.18    -2.03    57.88     5.23    -8.21     0.00     0.01     2.55     0.50P    2.15R    0.52  
Plymouth             30   39   -8       2.27    62.07    -2.85    57.77     5.30   -11.83     0.00     0.02     2.64     0.53P    2.43R    0.52  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   38   -5       1.82    59.56     3.87    56.36     5.30    -7.97     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.26P    4.24R    1.07  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -5.01    27.25    -5.15    56.78     5.49    -6.47     0.00     0.02     2.19     0.49P    3.90R    1.02  
Portsmouth           31   36   -8      -9.67    13.05   -12.82    57.47     5.44    -6.73     0.00     0.02     2.56     0.73P    2.91R    0.75  
Mansfield            31   35  -11       0.94    55.61     1.23    52.73     5.35   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P   16.25R    5.85  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.18    30.57    -0.33    54.55     5.48    -5.71     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.22P    8.46R    2.79  
Accrington_Stanley   30   34   -7      -2.02    40.79     0.10    53.02     5.40   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P   13.81R    4.94  
Bury                 29   33   -3      -7.85    16.74    -4.87    57.19     5.88    -1.62     0.00     0.03     3.54     0.94P    3.96R    1.25  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.13    15.83    -3.50    51.00     5.49    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   22.64R    9.38  
Torquay              30   29  -16      -6.71    20.23    -8.39    48.34     5.48   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   44.94R   21.61  
Northampton          30   26  -19      -8.74    13.27   -10.30    44.88     5.41   -23.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.04R   49.33  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2014, Aldershot 2 2 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            30   66  +45       6.96    82.09    15.38    98.07     5.17    61.73    95.86   100.00    97.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    30   58  +26       8.36    85.40    13.40    84.72     5.32    33.51     3.46    97.36    31.81P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.15    96.38     5.60    76.73     5.03     2.03     0.10    65.09     8.59P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         33   53   +1      10.44    89.52     5.02    69.07     4.70    -1.68     0.00    11.90     1.71P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.75    89.22     5.21    67.91     4.77    -4.75     0.00     8.14     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           32   51   +9      -2.35    38.90    -5.48    72.50     5.07    12.65     0.01    35.32     9.94P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        32   50   +9       3.27    65.45     4.74    69.06     5.00     8.71     0.00    14.73     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   49  +14       1.17    55.64    -0.19    78.96     5.78    22.51     0.55    79.22    25.48P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.20    51.16     8.93    65.09     4.76    10.78     0.00     3.72     0.67P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    30   46   +2      -1.81    41.09    -8.65    71.46     5.45     7.40     0.00    28.60     7.32P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.65    53.50     0.60    66.26     5.71     4.18     0.00     8.18     1.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          31   43   +6      -8.65    14.37    -8.55    66.67     5.23    10.53     0.00     7.99     2.29P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.54    62.52     7.00    62.96     5.57     2.24     0.00     2.59     0.44P    0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   42   -4      -0.95    45.94    -0.00    58.40     4.76    -6.34     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.50R    0.00  
Forest_Green     28   41  +13      -3.51    32.21     3.05    69.61     5.96    18.89     0.00    22.71     5.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         31   39   -8      -4.20    30.68    -8.62    59.23     5.14    -8.27     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.47R    0.00  
Woking           32   39  -10      -0.10    50.32    -1.44    53.63     4.79   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.33R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.07    66.71     6.98    67.37     6.37     8.75     0.01    13.72     2.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Aldershot        30   31   +5      -7.77    17.22    -6.96    59.63     5.40    15.69     0.00     0.35     0.15P    0.66R    0.00  
Chester          31   31  -18       0.03    51.38    -0.02    47.09     4.93   -25.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.14R    0.00  
Southport        31   31  -19      -3.28    34.40    -5.11    47.69     5.04   -25.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.50R    0.00  
Dartford         32   29  -21      -7.02    19.27    -7.42    45.89     4.96   -24.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.75R    0.00  
Tamworth         30   28  -20      -3.01    35.09    -4.07    44.59     5.13   -28.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.53R    0.00  
Hyde_United      33    8  -58     -17.30     0.36   -19.39    16.58     3.97   -76.05     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10