Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 17 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.31    81.69     3.32    81.36     4.37    39.18    32.32    65.99    85.92    97.26    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.72    82.82     0.59    78.24     4.49    31.01    12.59    33.12    64.43    90.58    99.70     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.32    46.60     6.83    82.22     4.24    59.62    47.52    76.59    91.59    98.66    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.63    58.39     7.53    76.31     4.53    45.16     7.29    22.53    49.85    84.14    99.16     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.76    88.43    -3.84    69.84     4.56     9.01     0.25     1.49     6.28    19.77    86.52     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.23    72.47     1.81    66.25     4.79    15.99     0.03     0.26     1.52     6.51    61.43     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.35    18.34    -9.97    64.75     4.53    19.81     0.00     0.03     0.41     3.04    50.24     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.25    67.66     8.83    55.11     4.54     6.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.49     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.38    77.33     1.80    52.38     4.53    -8.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.21    23.77     1.55    43.54     4.48    -4.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.30R    0.16  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.53    26.70     0.42    41.45     4.39   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.90R    0.53  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.59    42.08     1.27    42.08     4.36   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.84R    0.47  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.02    50.95     7.50    39.42     4.37   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.71R    1.89  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.37    43.24    -2.64    40.58     4.37   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.92R    1.36  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.31    70.59     3.22    36.48     4.29   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.49R    9.88  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -2.04    39.27    -5.42    36.38     4.24   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.98R    9.48  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.01    12.80    -1.16    39.55     4.51   -10.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.33R    2.56  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -4.96    24.63    -4.95    37.13     4.29   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.50R    6.27  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.23    44.06    -3.94    33.44     4.22   -32.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.72R   30.00  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.33    22.13   -12.74    32.98     4.39   -38.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.30R   37.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 February 2014, QPR 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      13.84    96.05     5.73    94.89     5.39    33.08    84.74    95.45    99.98    96.74P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   60  +22       9.39    87.78     9.84    83.77     5.32    26.72     6.85    39.77    96.35    53.55P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             30   56  +13       6.96    80.31     1.52    81.92     5.47    18.91     3.58    23.03    92.15    41.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   55  +18       8.41    84.80     9.66    81.14     5.55    24.53     2.87    22.42    90.82    36.87P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   54  +20       5.92    76.81     9.52    79.27     5.46    25.04     1.65    14.15    85.12    31.04P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         31   50  +14      -1.65    42.22     0.07    75.74     5.34    22.04     0.28     4.30    66.45    22.20P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.19    48.92    -0.70    70.60     5.42    10.98     0.02     0.42    24.60     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   45   +9       1.33    56.66     7.09    65.28     5.20     8.68     0.00     0.02     5.34     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           29   43   +5      -2.73    37.05    -3.68    69.24     5.71     9.63     0.01     0.31    19.26     5.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.31    51.78    -0.47    65.06     5.48     2.36     0.00     0.03     5.04     1.10P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.48    52.74     3.55    64.14     5.50     4.27     0.00     0.02     4.20     0.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         30   41   +7      -5.44    25.33    -1.14    66.50     5.56    12.38     0.00     0.09     9.31     2.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield    31   40   -2       1.82    59.56     4.39    59.14     5.24    -4.27     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.05P    0.10R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   39   +5      -3.99    31.62     4.17    60.42     5.27     6.36     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.21P    0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth     30   36  -13       3.38    67.17     1.03    53.89     5.45   -19.45     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.90R    0.12  
Blackpool       31   35  -14      -4.06    31.47    -9.08    54.12     5.14   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.88R    0.07  
Sheff_Wed       29   33   -1      -4.56    28.44     2.05    54.90     5.69    -2.98     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    1.59R    0.05  
Birmingham      31   33   -3     -10.16    10.57    -4.02    53.27     5.31    -3.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.49R    0.07  
Bolton          31   30  -14     -10.59     9.44   -10.95    50.54     5.38   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.12R    0.60  
Doncaster       31   30  -19      -1.44    43.79    -2.63    44.85     5.01   -27.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.02R    5.77  
Millwall        31   28  -28      -3.96    31.25   -11.64    43.37     5.00   -36.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.55R   10.50  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.85     9.32    -8.77    46.32     5.75   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.76R    4.30  
Barnsley        29   23  -20      -7.71    15.15    -5.92    39.65     5.29   -30.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.12R   29.90  
Yeovil          29   21  -21      -5.22    24.87     0.36    37.42     5.28   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.38R   48.62  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2014, Bristol_City 2 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       30   66  +26      13.49    95.34     8.93    93.27     5.54    33.93    39.95    79.14    99.96    85.31P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   64  +31       4.99    72.86     4.48    94.00     5.45    43.13    50.83    84.51    99.97    90.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   31   61  +30       8.65    84.76    15.11    86.56     5.32    37.49     8.22    29.39    99.36    50.33P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         30   56  +12      11.01    91.01     6.26    80.73     5.55    16.12     0.73     4.78    90.65    23.45P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       30   54  +14      11.26    90.44    12.05    75.23     5.70    12.56     0.11     0.84    64.51    10.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    30   49   +9      -0.61    46.92    -3.88    76.77     5.64    18.31     0.15     1.28    76.17    22.86P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         31   47   +7       2.61    62.48     4.10    69.64     5.35    10.07     0.00     0.02    24.96     5.32P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         31   45   +8      -6.25    22.57    -5.12    68.98     5.42    13.08     0.00     0.02    23.08     6.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale       30   43   -2       5.26    73.61     3.82    63.07     5.64    -5.47     0.00     0.00     3.98     0.63P    0.34R    0.00  
MK_Dons         30   42   +3      -5.11    26.93    -5.91    65.46     5.68     5.18     0.00     0.01     9.33     2.25P    0.05R    0.00  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.38    62.11     0.32    55.33     5.29   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    8.32R    0.49  
Coventry        29   37   +6       3.09    64.74    -0.12    63.52     5.89    10.84     0.00     0.00     6.09     1.50P    0.41R    0.01  
Bradford        30   35   +3      -1.04    45.73    10.60    54.13     5.53    -1.36     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   11.06R    0.94  
Colchester      28   35   -1       0.06    50.84     4.21    57.59     5.92    -4.29     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.07P    4.78R    0.33  
Oldham          31   34   -9      -1.80    42.02     1.00    52.64     5.30   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.18R    1.61  
Carlisle        30   33  -17      -0.39    49.16    -4.06    49.60     5.29   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.12R    6.81  
Bristol_City    32   32   -5     -12.85     6.93    -5.89    52.22     5.28    -3.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.35R    2.16  
Tranmere        31   32  -19      -4.41    29.82    -9.62    50.95     5.28   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.65R    4.10  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.22    49.51    -0.09    57.27     6.48    -8.81     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.18P    7.44R    0.73  
Crewe           31   31  -26      -0.03    51.04    -6.60    45.80     5.06   -35.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.33R   23.12  
Notts_County    32   30  -12     -11.16     9.10    -7.54    49.23     5.18   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.95R    6.31  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.76     8.36   -12.00    53.50     5.97   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   16.42R    1.92  
Shrewsbury      31   28  -13      -7.40    17.82    -2.84    45.51     5.17   -17.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.30R   21.54  
Stevenage       28   25  -19      -5.77    23.00    -7.23    44.85     5.74   -26.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.30R   29.94  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2014, Burton_Albion 1 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         31   58  +23       4.03    68.44     6.45    84.25     5.36    31.19    51.01    87.58    99.82    91.75P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           31   55  +15       2.70    62.14     0.65    81.09     5.43    22.98    22.34    69.73    98.94    79.23P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   54  +19       4.53    70.55     8.93    76.73     5.33    22.20     7.54    38.47    94.90    54.30P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             30   53  +13       6.25    77.23     4.72    78.22     5.69    17.82    10.51    47.38    96.01    59.72P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   52  +14       7.35    81.24     8.80    75.77     5.65    16.72     5.71    30.56    91.55    44.52P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   51   +5       8.69    85.52     3.06    72.56     5.55     4.59     1.65    12.72    76.81    25.15P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             30   47  +10       0.04    50.31     1.46    71.91     5.53    14.34     1.19    12.28    76.68    30.53P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           31   41   +0      -4.20    31.36    -4.24    63.01     5.36     2.28     0.00     0.26    15.44     4.29P    0.17R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red            31   40   -1       0.08    51.28     2.43    60.35     5.35    -1.11     0.00     0.06     6.51     1.27P    0.74R    0.18  
Newport_County       27   39   +2       8.00    85.29    10.78    62.11     6.21    -2.25     0.04     0.69    14.56     2.71P    0.72R    0.14  
York                 32   39   +1      -1.60    42.85     4.99    57.07     5.07    -0.41     0.00     0.00     1.88     0.39P    2.13R    0.49  
Plymouth             30   39   -8       2.27    61.86    -2.76    57.72     5.32   -11.90     0.00     0.02     2.43     0.41P    2.59R    0.58  
Exeter               30   38   -3      -3.34    34.78    -3.44    60.84     5.65    -1.68     0.00     0.12     8.83     2.17P    0.79R    0.18  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   38   -5       1.95    60.23     4.04    56.37     5.29    -7.96     0.00     0.01     1.52     0.25P    4.10R    1.08  
Morecambe            30   38   -6      -0.31    48.86    -2.21    58.04     5.45    -8.54     0.00     0.02     3.09     0.56P    2.46R    0.59  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -4.80    28.25    -4.91    56.66     5.53    -6.63     0.00     0.02     2.13     0.48P    4.12R    1.09  
Portsmouth           31   36   -8      -9.80    12.88   -12.99    57.50     5.44    -6.63     0.00     0.00     2.54     0.72P    2.84R    0.77  
Mansfield            31   35  -11       0.92    55.52     1.18    52.76     5.33   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P   16.03R    5.78  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.24    30.18    -0.39    54.53     5.44    -5.77     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.19P    8.09R    2.59  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -7      -1.83    41.64     0.00    53.27     5.63   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P   13.91R    5.02  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.45    17.82    -4.77    57.74     6.15    -1.39     0.00     0.08     4.44     1.19P    4.05R    1.22  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.11    15.96    -3.44    50.97     5.49    -8.68     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   22.50R    9.21  
Torquay              30   29  -16      -6.62    20.68    -8.26    48.39     5.52   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   44.14R   21.22  
Northampton          30   26  -19      -8.59    13.55   -10.08    44.78     5.40   -23.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    70.63R   49.84  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2014, Barnet 1 0 Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            30   66  +45       7.06    82.09    15.50    98.09     5.14    61.73    94.06   100.00    96.61P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    29   57  +26       8.76    87.00    13.42    85.64     5.55    34.33     4.94    97.96    33.39P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.16    96.39     5.68    76.63     5.03     1.82     0.07    65.89     8.30P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         33   53   +1      10.35    89.39     4.89    69.09     4.70    -1.62     0.00    12.47     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        32   50   +9       3.31    65.78     4.79    69.11     5.03     8.77     0.00    15.72     2.93P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        32   50   -1       9.55    87.11     4.89    65.93     4.98    -6.29     0.00     4.78     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.17    61.02     0.29    80.32     6.01    23.58     0.91    84.90    28.05P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.04    50.47     8.74    65.10     4.73    10.79     0.00     3.63     0.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           31   48   +8      -3.50    33.34    -5.75    71.00     5.34    11.74     0.01    27.50     7.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    30   46   +2      -1.94    40.40    -8.89    71.38     5.46     7.27     0.00    29.05     7.28P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.58    52.84     0.52    66.31     5.74     4.25     0.00     8.86     1.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.43    14.57    -8.74    66.52     5.39     9.79     0.00     8.35     2.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.50    62.44     6.93    62.98     5.55     2.32     0.00     2.73     0.44P    0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   42   -4      -0.94    46.04    -0.03    58.49     4.76    -6.24     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.40R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.35    33.14     2.76    69.28     6.14    17.79     0.01    22.66     5.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           31   39   -6      -0.09    49.94     0.13    55.21     5.01   -13.66     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.00R    0.00  
Hereford         31   39   -8      -4.27    30.29    -8.73    59.22     5.14    -8.29     0.00     0.22     0.05P    0.47R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.17    67.15     7.18    67.29     6.36     8.66     0.01    14.26     2.73P    0.02R    0.00  
Chester          31   31  -18       0.10    51.87     0.05    47.08     4.93   -25.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.46R    0.00  
Southport        31   31  -19      -3.24    34.68    -5.14    47.70     5.07   -25.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.36R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.24    18.22    -6.68    60.67     5.65    16.64     0.00     0.90     0.29P    0.51R    0.00  
Tamworth         29   28  -19      -1.97    40.34    -3.63    46.31     5.38   -27.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.90R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -6.99    18.43    -8.86    43.79     5.17   -29.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.76R    0.00  
Hyde_United      33    8  -58     -17.20     0.36   -19.30    16.59     3.98   -76.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10