Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 16 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.31    81.70     3.30    81.36     4.38    39.16    32.47    66.22    85.96    97.27    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.75    82.53     0.68    78.18     4.51    30.93    12.36    32.48    64.16    90.26    99.63     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.33    46.76     6.75    82.23     4.28    59.68    47.37    76.51    91.49    98.64    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.67    58.77     7.63    76.34     4.56    45.22     7.54    23.04    50.11    84.21    99.18     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.69    88.09    -3.94    69.88     4.57     9.08     0.24     1.45     6.26    20.03    86.59     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.28    72.73     1.84    66.26     4.80    16.00     0.03     0.27     1.58     6.55    61.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.25    18.76    -9.75    64.66     4.54    19.69     0.00     0.03     0.43     3.01    49.59     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.29    67.69     8.86    55.07     4.59     6.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.60     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.32    77.15     1.66    52.46     4.53    -8.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.07    24.51     1.74    43.50     4.49    -4.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.42R    0.16  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.57    26.56     0.36    41.45     4.39   -10.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.91R    0.53  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.61    41.99     1.23    42.07     4.40   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.05R    0.48  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.10    50.66     7.31    39.48     4.39   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.30R    1.91  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.26    43.86    -2.47    40.60     4.37   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.81R    1.29  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.34    70.67     3.30    36.47     4.28   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.45R    9.70  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -1.96    39.64    -5.23    36.38     4.28   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.29R    9.85  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.24    12.58    -1.53    39.63     4.51   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.66R    2.57  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.02    24.05    -5.01    37.13     4.30   -21.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.62R    6.45  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.12    44.81    -3.82    33.40     4.21   -33.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.86R   29.79  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.38    22.16   -12.92    32.96     4.38   -38.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.62R   37.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 February 2014, QPR 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      13.90    96.01     5.76    94.84     5.41    33.02    84.51    95.49    99.98    96.68P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   60  +22       9.29    87.61     9.67    83.78     5.31    26.71     6.98    39.04    96.50    53.11P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             30   56  +13       6.98    80.22     1.58    81.92     5.48    18.90     3.54    23.04    91.91    41.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   55  +18       8.25    84.36     9.42    81.20     5.52    24.65     2.80    22.66    90.89    37.15P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   54  +20       5.72    76.08     9.20    79.37     5.48    25.15     1.81    14.61    85.62    31.78P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         31   50  +14      -1.49    42.96     0.37    75.64     5.38    21.89     0.34     4.14    65.70    21.73P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.16    49.20    -0.58    70.55     5.42    10.93     0.01     0.42    24.58     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   45   +9       1.45    57.24     7.29    65.21     5.23     8.54     0.00     0.04     5.23     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           29   43   +5      -2.80    36.56    -3.87    69.31     5.72     9.72     0.02     0.42    19.58     5.62P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.36    52.00    -0.39    65.08     5.47     2.40     0.00     0.02     5.18     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.40    52.30     3.34    64.18     5.49     4.31     0.00     0.03     4.11     0.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         30   41   +7      -5.31    25.66    -0.92    66.48     5.54    12.35     0.00     0.07     9.27     2.54P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    31   40   -2       1.79    59.73     4.36    59.17     5.28    -4.26     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.07P    0.11R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   39   +5      -4.15    30.93     3.92    60.53     5.29     6.50     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.18P    0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth     30   36  -13       3.47    67.77     1.19    53.85     5.47   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.01R    0.13  
Blackpool       31   35  -14      -4.01    31.77    -9.02    54.06     5.12   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    1.90R    0.07  
Sheff_Wed       29   33   -1      -4.38    29.04     2.32    54.79     5.67    -3.11     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.65R    0.04  
Birmingham      31   33   -3     -10.38    10.25    -4.30    53.36     5.35    -3.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.47R    0.06  
Bolton          31   30  -14     -10.55     9.70   -10.84    50.50     5.39   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.10R    0.66  
Doncaster       31   30  -19      -1.43    43.94    -2.65    44.83     5.05   -27.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.45R    5.81  
Millwall        31   28  -28      -3.93    31.52   -11.66    43.36     4.98   -36.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.90R   10.69  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.83     9.35    -8.71    46.33     5.73   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.64R    4.41  
Barnsley        29   23  -20      -7.60    15.53    -5.78    39.62     5.31   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.21R   30.30  
Yeovil          29   21  -21      -5.31    24.11     0.32    37.53     5.31   -31.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.51R   47.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2014, Bristol_City 2 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       30   66  +26      13.47    95.42     8.92    93.30     5.52    33.98    40.24    79.73    99.98    85.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   64  +31       4.99    72.92     4.43    94.04     5.45    43.16    50.92    84.18    99.98    90.52P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   31   61  +30       8.71    85.25    15.23    86.51     5.34    37.44     7.89    29.13    99.38    50.16P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         30   56  +12      10.89    90.88     6.06    80.83     5.55    16.25     0.74     4.84    91.02    23.72P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       30   54  +14      11.38    91.03    12.21    75.17     5.65    12.45     0.10     0.77    64.35    10.67P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    30   49   +9      -0.67    46.62    -3.94    76.71     5.65    18.27     0.10     1.27    76.47    22.97P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         31   47   +7       2.61    62.54     4.07    69.64     5.33    10.10     0.00     0.03    25.03     5.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         31   45   +8      -6.00    23.68    -4.73    68.86     5.45    12.88     0.00     0.03    22.62     6.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       30   43   -2       5.23    73.48     3.71    63.06     5.59    -5.46     0.00     0.00     3.78     0.63P    0.32R    0.00  
MK_Dons         30   42   +3      -5.10    26.69    -5.97    65.51     5.61     5.26     0.00     0.00     9.29     2.26P    0.06R    0.00  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.51    62.56     0.47    55.27     5.31   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    8.69R    0.52  
Coventry        29   37   +6       3.05    64.21    -0.13    63.56     5.89    10.89     0.00     0.00     6.28     1.54P    0.34R    0.01  
Bradford        30   35   +3      -1.12    45.31    10.54    54.24     5.50    -1.24     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   10.48R    0.78  
Colchester      28   35   -1      -0.04    50.54     4.11    57.54     5.85    -4.30     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.11P    4.65R    0.28  
Oldham          31   34   -9      -1.71    42.43     1.14    52.61     5.33   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   18.37R    1.71  
Carlisle        30   33  -17      -0.19    50.15    -3.78    49.57     5.26   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    40.26R    6.81  
Bristol_City    32   32   -5     -12.87     6.94    -5.91    52.21     5.29    -3.58     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.57R    2.24  
Tranmere        31   32  -19      -4.52    29.42    -9.77    51.01     5.27   -21.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   29.12R    3.96  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.13    50.04     0.06    57.07     6.47    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.15P    7.98R    0.80  
Crewe           31   31  -26       0.04    51.46    -6.46    45.79     5.06   -35.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.75R   23.39  
Notts_County    32   30  -12     -11.29     8.93    -7.66    49.27     5.24   -12.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.97R    6.63  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.92     7.78   -12.28    53.63     5.98    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   16.09R    1.89  
Shrewsbury      31   28  -13      -7.48    17.59    -2.97    45.57     5.19   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.95R   21.43  
Stevenage       28   25  -19      -5.84    22.35    -7.34    44.86     5.73   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.39R   29.55  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2014, Burton_Albion 1 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         31   58  +23       3.99    68.17     6.37    84.22     5.33    31.17    51.09    87.47    99.82    91.60P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           31   55  +15       2.57    61.73     0.47    81.16     5.42    23.05    23.05    70.20    98.99    79.37P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   54  +19       4.77    71.63     9.23    76.63     5.32    22.08     7.28    37.87    94.78    53.54P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             30   53  +13       6.35    77.59     4.85    78.13     5.66    17.71    10.21    46.83    95.72    59.33P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   52  +14       7.25    81.02     8.63    75.81     5.60    16.79     5.46    31.05    91.84    44.83P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   51   +5       8.70    85.50     3.02    72.53     5.50     4.58     1.59    12.55    76.63    24.97P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             30   47  +10      -0.20    49.03     1.13    72.01     5.52    14.47     1.24    12.72    77.47    31.26P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           31   41   +0      -3.99    31.99    -3.96    62.92     5.36     2.21     0.01     0.24    15.18     4.13P    0.18R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red            31   40   -1       0.05    50.75     2.42    60.46     5.38    -1.01     0.00     0.08     6.90     1.47P    0.78R    0.18  
Newport_County       27   39   +2       8.03    85.35    10.82    62.07     6.27    -2.31     0.06     0.74    14.55     2.90P    0.74R    0.16  
York                 32   39   +1      -1.55    43.28     5.06    57.05     5.05    -0.46     0.00     0.01     1.85     0.38P    2.19R    0.52  
Plymouth             30   39   -8       2.28    62.36    -2.84    57.72     5.33   -11.89     0.00     0.01     2.46     0.47P    2.52R    0.53  
Exeter               30   38   -3      -3.17    35.53    -3.16    60.70     5.60    -1.84     0.00     0.11     8.28     2.00P    0.84R    0.23  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   38   -5       1.86    59.87     3.95    56.42     5.28    -7.91     0.00     0.01     1.58     0.25P    4.12R    1.07  
Morecambe            30   38   -6      -0.32    49.18    -2.23    58.02     5.50    -8.56     0.00     0.03     3.04     0.60P    2.52R    0.57  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -5.01    27.06    -5.16    56.74     5.53    -6.55     0.00     0.02     2.15     0.52P    4.01R    1.07  
Portsmouth           31   36   -8      -9.64    12.90   -12.79    57.49     5.41    -6.69     0.00     0.01     2.37     0.72P    2.80R    0.73  
Mansfield            31   35  -11       1.11    56.19     1.57    52.64     5.32   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   16.48R    6.06  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.27    30.47    -0.49    54.59     5.49    -5.67     0.00     0.01     0.98     0.22P    8.35R    2.78  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -7      -1.81    41.67     0.05    53.30     5.63   -11.30     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.11P   13.84R    5.03  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.44    17.67    -4.69    57.70     6.10    -1.42     0.00     0.06     4.38     1.24P    4.03R    1.24  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.09    15.78    -3.42    50.94     5.48    -8.72     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   22.72R    9.49  
Torquay              30   29  -16      -6.72    20.24    -8.44    48.41     5.45   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   43.91R   20.98  
Northampton          30   26  -19      -8.79    13.07   -10.38    44.88     5.44   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.97R   49.35  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2014, Barnet 1 0 Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            30   66  +45       7.08    82.17    15.57    98.12     5.13    61.75    94.19   100.00    96.61P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    29   57  +26       8.80    87.30    13.47    85.60     5.54    34.29     4.73    97.94    33.25P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.15    96.41     5.65    76.60     5.06     1.83     0.09    65.62     8.44P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         33   53   +1      10.30    89.07     4.77    69.15     4.70    -1.58     0.00    12.95     1.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        32   50   +9       3.15    64.82     4.63    69.17     5.03     8.85     0.00    16.03     3.01P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        32   50   -1       9.46    86.94     4.66    65.98     4.97    -6.18     0.00     4.74     0.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.00    60.19     0.08    80.35     5.95    23.57     0.96    84.98    28.14P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.16    51.08     8.90    65.03     4.76    10.72     0.00     3.65     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           31   48   +8      -3.63    32.59    -5.96    71.06     5.28    11.84     0.00    27.77     7.58P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    30   46   +2      -1.75    41.46    -8.57    71.36     5.47     7.18     0.01    28.74     7.13P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.52    52.78     0.39    66.39     5.77     4.38     0.00     9.26     1.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.47    14.49    -8.78    66.52     5.44     9.80     0.00     8.53     2.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.71    63.06     7.23    62.90     5.57     2.18     0.00     2.54     0.40P    0.09R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   42   -4      -0.92    46.31     0.04    58.44     4.75    -6.30     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.43R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.21    33.65     2.99    69.17     6.09    17.63     0.00    21.56     5.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           31   39   -6      -0.12    49.99     0.06    55.26     5.04   -13.57     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.18R    0.00  
Hereford         31   39   -8      -4.17    30.89    -8.62    59.16     5.16    -8.41     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.55R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.12    66.90     7.09    67.37     6.40     8.79     0.01    14.44     2.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Chester          31   31  -18      -0.04    50.99    -0.17    47.11     4.92   -25.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.34R    0.00  
Southport        31   31  -19      -3.27    34.53    -5.12    47.66     5.07   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.22R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.11    18.88    -6.49    60.59     5.60    16.56     0.00     0.87     0.24P    0.55R    0.00  
Tamworth         29   28  -19      -1.80    41.38    -3.41    46.22     5.37   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.72R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -7.13    17.82    -9.01    43.91     5.18   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.85R    0.00  
Hyde_United      33    8  -58     -17.27     0.38   -19.42    16.64     3.98   -76.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10