Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 14 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.41    81.92     3.42    81.30     4.38    39.10    32.07    65.39    85.71    97.19    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.61    82.33     0.50    78.24     4.50    31.02    12.78    33.29    64.70    90.77    99.68     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.31    46.48     6.83    82.21     4.24    59.59    47.45    76.79    91.65    98.66    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.74    59.15     7.69    76.31     4.52    45.18     7.46    22.75    49.84    84.43    99.21     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.72    88.26    -3.89    69.84     4.55     8.99     0.21     1.43     6.07    19.34    86.68     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.40    73.12     2.05    66.20     4.81    15.90     0.03     0.30     1.58     6.48    61.03     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.41    18.16   -10.06    64.76     4.53    19.82     0.00     0.04     0.45     3.10    50.36     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.29    67.69     8.89    55.11     4.57     6.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.59     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.46    77.98     1.96    52.34     4.52    -8.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.07    24.27     1.76    43.51     4.48    -4.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.42R    0.18  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.49    27.02     0.47    41.41     4.37   -10.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.86R    0.47  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.62    41.88     1.27    42.07     4.37   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.79R    0.43  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.09    50.61     7.25    39.46     4.40   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.82R    1.97  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.43    42.82    -2.77    40.64     4.39   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.03R    1.21  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.30    70.54     3.21    36.49     4.28   -27.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.10R    9.58  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -2.01    39.28    -5.40    36.41     4.26   -28.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.86R    9.72  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.23    12.49    -1.57    39.66     4.50    -9.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.88R    2.42  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.05    23.68    -5.10    37.18     4.33   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.73R    6.46  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.21    44.19    -3.88    33.46     4.26   -32.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.40R   29.77  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.25    22.37   -12.61    32.91     4.36   -38.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.11R   37.78  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Bolton 0 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      13.93    96.19     5.85    94.82     5.41    32.99    80.31    93.90    99.98    95.55P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   59  +22       9.77    89.05     9.86    84.60     5.54    27.35     8.66    40.35    97.42    54.70P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             29   56  +15       7.75    83.43     2.75    84.00     5.68    21.91     6.84    32.71    96.01    50.40P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   55  +18       8.30    84.41     9.50    81.22     5.55    24.70     2.54    18.74    91.65    34.55P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   54  +20       5.80    76.29     9.28    79.20     5.48    24.90     1.51    11.88    85.83    29.80P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   47  +12      -2.58    37.89    -0.73    73.30     5.57    18.86     0.11     1.70    50.05    15.36P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.18    49.11    -0.64    70.61     5.43    11.03     0.02     0.31    27.41     7.15P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   44   +9       2.02    60.16     7.56    66.03     5.47     9.18     0.00     0.05     8.80     1.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           29   43   +5      -2.88    36.17    -3.97    69.35     5.71     9.79     0.01     0.28    22.08     6.12P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.32    51.84    -0.42    65.12     5.48     2.44     0.00     0.02     5.92     1.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.47    52.72     3.50    64.18     5.49     4.28     0.00     0.02     4.60     0.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   39   +6      -3.24    34.73     4.26    61.51     5.49     6.90     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.44P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         29   38   +6      -6.55    20.68    -1.37    65.18     5.80    11.87     0.00     0.03     7.82     2.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    30   37   -3       0.42    53.05     3.79    56.87     5.45    -6.28     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.59R    0.01  
Bournemouth     29   35  -13       3.60    68.98     0.86    53.85     5.65   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    3.64R    0.16  
Blackpool       30   34  -14      -3.86    32.00    -9.24    53.98     5.31   -16.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.58R    0.10  
Sheff_Wed       29   33   -1      -4.59    28.24     2.01    54.88     5.68    -2.97     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    1.68R    0.07  
Birmingham      30   33   -2      -9.04    13.08    -3.37    55.36     5.56    -1.23     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.28R    0.03  
Bolton          30   29  -14      -9.97    10.34   -10.54    50.87     5.56   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.82R    0.76  
Doncaster       30   29  -19      -1.01    46.12    -2.67    45.50     5.28   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.79R    5.79  
Millwall        30   27  -28      -3.77    31.87   -11.94    43.69     5.18   -36.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.02R   10.21  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.81     9.54    -8.71    46.37     5.74   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   28.94R    4.43  
Barnsley        28   22  -20      -7.33    15.74    -5.93    39.71     5.50   -30.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.40R   31.08  
Yeovil          29   21  -21      -5.35    24.19     0.31    37.64     5.31   -31.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.20R   47.36  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 14 February 2014, Peterborough 0 0 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.90    94.94     8.58    91.96     5.75    32.41    36.85    72.72    99.91    80.92P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.36    70.50     3.88    92.99     5.65    42.10    49.09    80.44    99.97    88.11P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   30   60  +30       9.02    86.23    15.08    86.93     5.51    37.53    12.19    36.86    99.49    55.21P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   55  +12      11.33    92.14     6.17    81.15     5.78    16.22     1.56     7.58    92.18    25.99P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.45    89.39    12.31    73.82     5.93    11.90     0.10     0.75    56.60     9.80P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    30   49   +9      -0.67    46.47    -3.98    76.77     5.66    18.31     0.20     1.59    77.83    23.22P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         31   47   +7       2.62    62.36     4.12    69.60     5.39    10.02     0.00     0.04    27.25     5.58P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         31   45   +8      -5.96    23.76    -4.66    68.87     5.40    12.90     0.00     0.03    24.08     6.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       29   42   -2       5.40    74.69     3.48    63.51     5.87    -5.41     0.00     0.00     5.64     0.87P    0.47R    0.02  
MK_Dons         29   39   +2      -6.12    22.65    -6.00    64.28     5.87     4.83     0.00     0.00     7.98     1.86P    0.24R    0.00  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.45    62.50     0.38    55.31     5.24   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    9.63R    0.58  
Coventry        29   37   +6       3.13    64.78     0.02    63.53     5.90    10.85     0.00     0.00     6.94     1.55P    0.48R    0.02  
Bradford        30   35   +3      -1.30    44.40    10.25    54.36     5.51    -1.06     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   11.72R    0.97  
Colchester      28   35   -1       0.02    50.73     4.14    57.51     5.88    -4.38     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.11P    5.78R    0.43  
Oldham          30   34   -8      -0.92    46.08     1.26    53.58     5.49   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   16.60R    1.61  
Carlisle        30   33  -17      -0.27    49.65    -3.89    49.60     5.28   -26.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.40R    8.26  
Bristol_City    31   31   -5     -12.42     7.39    -5.83    53.11     5.54    -2.78     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   17.51R    2.20  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.06    50.36     0.12    57.01     6.42    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.14P    8.76R    0.93  
Tranmere        30   31  -19      -4.27    30.17   -10.06    50.93     5.52   -22.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    33.67R    5.60  
Crewe           30   31  -24       0.50    53.93    -6.12    46.78     5.26   -34.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.03R   21.11  
Notts_County    31   30  -10     -10.92     9.32    -7.32    50.09     5.37   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.35R    5.88  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.96     8.03   -12.28    53.68     5.98    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   17.69R    2.23  
Shrewsbury      30   27  -13      -7.03    18.77    -2.71    45.94     5.37   -17.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.05R   22.83  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.87    26.07    -6.96    45.82     5.91   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    67.61R   27.35  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 14 February 2014, Accrington_Stanley 2 3 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         30   55  +21       3.38    65.83     5.94    83.01     5.55    29.72    45.61    83.93    99.51    89.23P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           31   55  +15       2.51    61.21     0.43    81.09     5.41    22.95    27.42    72.66    98.95    81.16P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   51  +16       4.36    70.21     7.92    75.14     5.52    19.28     5.84    31.33    90.25    47.12P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   50  +12       5.26    74.18     4.66    76.82     5.88    17.15     9.43    41.67    92.74    54.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   50   +5       9.24    87.57     3.26    73.15     5.73     4.94     2.91    18.04    78.52    30.12P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   49  +12       6.54    78.92     7.92    74.26     5.81    14.91     4.58    25.33    85.69    39.29P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             29   47  +11       1.22    55.93     2.21    73.98     5.76    16.32     4.01    24.50    85.46    42.67P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.15    85.88    11.93    63.76     6.46     1.23     0.18     1.81    22.49     5.12P    0.47R    0.09  
Dag_&_Red            30   39   -1       0.32    51.99     2.26    60.43     5.55    -1.54     0.00     0.11     7.60     1.67P    1.05R    0.26  
Plymouth             29   39   -4       2.33    62.24    -0.63    59.96     5.60    -6.64     0.01     0.15     6.25     1.35P    1.30R    0.26  
Hartlepool           30   38   -3      -4.34    30.46    -5.22    61.01     5.54    -1.14     0.00     0.15     8.88     2.43P    0.82R    0.21  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   38   -4       2.65    63.87     4.14    57.33     5.44    -7.62     0.00     0.02     2.53     0.41P    3.71R    1.10  
Morecambe            29   38   -5       0.40    52.51    -2.22    59.11     5.66    -7.99     0.00     0.10     5.11     1.08P    2.06R    0.60  
York                 31   36   -3      -1.79    42.02     2.87    54.58     5.21    -5.51     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.14P    8.02R    2.45  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -4.84    27.80    -4.96    56.74     5.54    -6.53     0.00     0.02     2.17     0.51P    4.60R    1.34  
Exeter               29   35   -4      -4.62    28.71    -3.92    58.53     5.80    -3.61     0.00     0.07     4.90     1.20P    2.79R    0.84  
Mansfield            30   35   -8       1.11    56.35     2.33    54.02     5.48   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.09P   12.23R    4.62  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.44    29.47    -0.70    54.57     5.47    -5.67     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.16P    9.15R    3.26  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -7      -1.78    41.77     0.07    53.29     5.64   -11.30     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.11P   15.40R    6.18  
Portsmouth           30   33   -9     -10.72    10.17   -12.93    56.12     5.64    -7.28     0.00     0.01     1.66     0.45P    6.21R    2.14  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.54    17.45    -4.86    57.69     6.10    -1.47     0.00     0.08     4.34     1.18P    4.39R    1.54  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.13    15.88    -3.49    50.97     5.48    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   24.73R   11.05  
Torquay              29   29  -14      -6.17    21.67    -7.78    49.37     5.61   -18.05     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   39.38R   19.70  
Northampton          29   26  -17      -7.98    15.15    -9.23    46.02     5.62   -21.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   63.70R   44.35  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 13 February 2014, Chester 2 1 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            29   63  +38       7.97    85.09    13.09    96.38     5.43    54.28    90.09    99.99    93.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    29   57  +26       8.88    87.23    13.55    85.59     5.54    34.29     7.95    97.40    35.27P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.21    96.51     5.67    76.54     5.07     1.82     0.19    60.97     7.72P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.08    69.07     5.78    71.61     5.26    12.54     0.02    27.66     5.33P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        31   50   +1      10.12    88.82     5.47    67.52     5.23    -3.86     0.00     8.02     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.36    87.19     4.93    68.54     4.91    -0.92     0.00     9.81     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.08    60.44     0.19    80.22     5.98    23.42     1.67    82.43    27.37P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.25    51.61     9.00    65.12     4.76    10.80     0.00     3.06     0.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.10    44.47    -7.80    73.11     5.70     9.90     0.03    38.01     9.65P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.46    29.05    -5.81    70.15     5.52    11.91     0.01    20.83     5.77P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.56    52.98     0.43    66.31     5.73     4.24     0.00     7.68     1.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.62    14.24    -9.03    66.51     5.46     9.82     0.00     7.56     2.09P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.72    63.43     7.12    62.82     5.56     2.09     0.00     2.13     0.38P    0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.27    33.20     2.86    69.40     6.10    18.00     0.03    20.58     5.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.40    25.25    -5.80    60.74     5.33    -1.07     0.00     0.58     0.13P    0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   39   -6      -1.92    41.22    -1.04    56.54     4.99    -8.76     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.30R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.14    66.88     7.12    67.19     6.40     8.52     0.02    12.50     2.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           30   36   -8      -1.34    43.94    -1.23    52.61     5.21   -17.30     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.01R    0.00  
Chester          31   31  -18       0.25    52.41     0.24    47.06     4.95   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.94R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.09    18.96    -6.47    60.55     5.67    16.52     0.00     0.73     0.24P    0.45R    0.00  
Tamworth         28   28  -18      -1.27    44.13    -3.66    46.89     5.57   -27.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.51R    0.00  
Southport        30   28  -21      -4.05    30.29    -5.96    45.88     5.29   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.30R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -7.17    17.81    -9.26    44.00     5.17   -29.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.27R    0.00  
Hyde_United      32    8  -57     -16.53     0.45   -19.39    17.07     4.13   -76.77     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10