Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 13 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.42    81.77     3.45    81.36     4.41    39.14    32.61    65.73    85.92    97.23    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.76    82.97     0.72    78.18     4.51    30.93    12.46    32.72    63.85    90.26    99.66     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.28    46.85     6.92    82.17     4.25    59.55    47.10    76.65    91.56    98.62    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.64    58.14     7.58    76.34     4.52    45.20     7.55    23.06    50.47    84.32    99.25     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.65    88.14    -3.99    69.86     4.56     9.02     0.24     1.53     6.17    19.82    86.68     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.27    72.51     1.91    66.21     4.83    15.92     0.04     0.28     1.59     6.57    61.72     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.34    18.58    -9.89    64.70     4.54    19.76     0.00     0.03     0.42     3.16    49.59     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.23    67.31     8.79    55.08     4.56     6.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     2.62     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.41    77.81     1.79    52.47     4.52    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.08    24.37     1.78    43.49     4.49    -4.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.44R    0.15  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.53    26.51     0.43    41.43     4.38   -10.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.76R    0.49  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.56    42.41     1.34    42.05     4.36   -13.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.02R    0.45  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.05    50.87     7.38    39.45     4.40   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.77R    1.96  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.34    43.16    -2.62    40.60     4.40   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.07R    1.32  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.23    69.88     3.07    36.52     4.27   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.02R    9.48  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -2.10    38.83    -5.51    36.43     4.27   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.93R    9.43  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.04    13.13    -1.23    39.61     4.54   -10.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.02R    2.51  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.07    24.14    -5.13    37.18     4.36   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.44R    6.33  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.06    45.05    -3.78    33.38     4.22   -33.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.15R   30.59  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.42    21.74   -13.01    33.00     4.37   -38.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.38R   37.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Bolton 0 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      14.03    96.08     5.98    94.78     5.37    32.90    80.46    93.99    99.99    95.62P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   59  +22       9.91    89.48     9.99    84.54     5.53    27.30     8.60    40.45    97.33    54.49P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             29   56  +15       7.89    84.05     2.94    83.91     5.61    21.77     6.63    32.79    96.02    50.99P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   55  +18       8.43    84.68     9.77    81.14     5.55    24.56     2.59    18.68    91.60    34.44P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   54  +20       5.92    76.69     9.50    79.17     5.50    24.87     1.58    11.68    86.07    29.52P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   47  +12      -2.69    37.15    -0.93    73.34     5.54    18.94     0.10     1.65    50.62    15.45P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.29    48.54    -0.82    70.60     5.39    10.99     0.02     0.36    27.20     7.24P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   44   +9       2.00    60.12     7.54    66.04     5.46     9.19     0.00     0.05     8.69     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           29   43   +5      -2.75    36.63    -3.76    69.29     5.65     9.71     0.01     0.27    21.42     5.78P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.19    51.36    -0.61    65.15     5.50     2.49     0.00     0.03     6.03     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.41    52.34     3.39    64.22     5.49     4.31     0.00     0.01     4.70     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   39   +6      -3.33    34.33     4.11    61.57     5.52     6.99     0.00     0.00     2.08     0.47P    0.03R    0.00  
Watford         29   38   +6      -6.46    21.01    -1.21    65.16     5.80    11.82     0.00     0.04     7.75     2.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    30   37   -3       0.31    52.16     3.60    56.97     5.43    -6.10     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.61R    0.01  
Bournemouth     29   35  -13       3.59    68.26     0.88    53.86     5.64   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    3.70R    0.18  
Blackpool       30   34  -14      -4.00    31.31    -9.43    54.05     5.30   -16.77     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     2.50R    0.09  
Sheff_Wed       29   33   -1      -4.30    29.53     2.42    54.74     5.67    -3.20     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.90R    0.06  
Birmingham      30   33   -2      -9.06    13.03    -3.39    55.34     5.55    -1.31     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.03P    1.35R    0.02  
Bolton          30   29  -14     -10.10    10.01   -10.79    50.95     5.60   -14.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.78R    0.80  
Doncaster       30   29  -19      -1.01    46.12    -2.74    45.52     5.25   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.25R    5.61  
Millwall        30   27  -28      -3.73    32.20   -11.78    43.66     5.18   -36.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.48R   10.34  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.92     9.25    -8.90    46.44     5.74   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.54R    4.34  
Barnsley        28   22  -20      -7.43    15.43    -6.13    39.81     5.53   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.07R   30.29  
Yeovil          29   21  -21      -5.33    24.14     0.36    37.53     5.26   -31.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.78R   48.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Carlisle 1 0 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.78    94.66     8.37    92.09     5.75    32.61    37.33    72.96    99.93    80.77P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.44    70.99     4.03    92.94     5.65    42.03    48.64    79.60    99.93    87.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   30   60  +30       9.17    86.75    15.33    86.94     5.55    37.54    11.98    36.57    99.29    55.07P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   55  +12      11.36    92.28     6.26    81.06     5.78    16.07     1.51     7.48    90.83    25.20P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.24    88.81    11.99    73.92     5.88    12.05     0.11     0.77    54.95     9.54P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    29   48   +9      -0.02    49.66    -3.60    77.55     5.89    19.04     0.41     2.48    78.86    24.14P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         30   46   +7       2.62    62.80     3.60    69.73     5.55     9.62     0.01     0.07    26.22     5.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         30   44   +8      -5.47    25.32    -4.56    69.94     5.67    13.92     0.01     0.07    29.33     7.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale       29   42   -2       5.42    74.70     3.54    63.49     5.86    -5.44     0.00     0.00     5.07     0.77P    0.44R    0.01  
MK_Dons         29   39   +2      -6.30    21.93    -6.30    64.38     5.91     4.95     0.00     0.00     7.46     1.93P    0.28R    0.00  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.36    61.85     0.26    55.34     5.29   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.65R    0.61  
Coventry        29   37   +6       3.11    64.64    -0.05    63.52     5.89    10.85     0.00     0.00     6.11     1.50P    0.43R    0.02  
Bradford        30   35   +3      -1.04    45.70    10.65    54.21     5.52    -1.28     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   12.19R    1.10  
Colchester      27   34   -1      -0.01    50.59     3.70    57.35     6.08    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.12P    6.53R    0.53  
Oldham          30   34   -8      -0.93    46.06     1.27    53.61     5.50   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   16.34R    1.60  
Carlisle        30   33  -17      -0.44    48.73    -4.14    49.65     5.30   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.67R    7.94  
Bristol_City    31   31   -5     -12.53     7.22    -5.99    53.10     5.51    -2.81     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   17.23R    2.18  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.05    50.76     0.19    57.04     6.45    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.10P    8.89R    0.98  
Tranmere        30   31  -19      -4.20    30.54    -9.89    50.85     5.52   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    33.69R    5.84  
Crewe           30   31  -24       0.64    54.20    -5.84    46.73     5.28   -34.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.33R   20.99  
Notts_County    31   30  -10     -10.92     9.51    -7.25    50.13     5.33   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.71R    5.83  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.79     8.45   -12.04    53.50     6.01   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   18.42R    2.39  
Shrewsbury      30   27  -13      -7.07    18.55    -2.74    45.97     5.37   -17.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.49R   22.50  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.79    26.55    -6.81    45.80     5.94   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.71R   27.48  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         30   55  +21       3.26    65.26     5.75    83.01     5.51    29.73    48.76    84.81    99.51    89.53P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           30   52  +14       1.54    56.78     0.45    79.72     5.64    22.29    21.50    65.16    97.79    75.79P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   51  +16       4.28    69.95     7.83    75.17     5.55    19.31     6.59    33.18    90.31    48.48P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   50  +12       5.17    73.56     4.51    76.87     5.88    17.25    10.41    43.46    93.00    56.37P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   50   +5       9.24    87.27     3.29    73.11     5.70     4.90     3.12    18.75    78.84    30.50P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   49  +12       6.64    79.35     8.08    74.19     5.82    14.79     4.99    26.16    85.41    39.46P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             29   47  +11       1.19    55.92     2.20    74.00     5.74    16.34     4.39    25.76    85.36    43.17P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.21    86.17    12.01    63.70     6.46     1.09     0.20     1.85    22.27     5.27P    0.53R    0.14  
Dag_&_Red            30   39   -1       0.22    51.88     2.09    60.56     5.55    -1.38     0.00     0.15     7.85     1.72P    1.02R    0.23  
Plymouth             29   39   -4       2.48    63.12    -0.47    59.91     5.58    -6.69     0.00     0.14     6.20     1.26P    1.29R    0.32  
Hartlepool           30   38   -3      -4.37    30.30    -5.27    61.04     5.57    -1.12     0.01     0.20     9.32     2.61P    0.84R    0.18  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   38   -4       2.57    63.29     3.99    57.42     5.48    -7.45     0.00     0.03     2.69     0.50P    3.72R    1.10  
Morecambe            29   38   -5       0.44    52.60    -2.20    59.09     5.66    -8.00     0.01     0.11     4.93     1.09P    2.16R    0.58  
York                 31   36   -3      -1.81    41.94     2.84    54.56     5.23    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.17P    8.52R    2.74  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -4.96    27.53    -5.10    56.73     5.56    -6.55     0.00     0.02     2.25     0.57P    4.68R    1.41  
Exeter               29   35   -4      -4.48    29.36    -3.78    58.39     5.74    -3.74     0.00     0.08     4.25     1.07P    2.97R    0.91  
Mansfield            30   35   -8       1.02    55.89     2.26    54.12     5.56   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.11P   12.32R    4.67  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.23    30.39    -0.44    54.43     5.45    -5.86     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.21P    9.77R    3.49  
Accrington_Stanley   28   33   -6      -0.88    46.35     0.23    54.39     5.82   -10.64     0.00     0.02     1.11     0.23P   12.19R    4.79  
Portsmouth           30   33   -9     -10.69    10.19   -12.90    56.12     5.67    -7.32     0.00     0.02     1.80     0.53P    6.24R    2.18  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.53    17.68    -4.86    57.70     6.12    -1.43     0.00     0.08     4.55     1.30P    4.59R    1.57  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.13    15.82    -3.48    51.01     5.47    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.06P   24.78R   10.95  
Torquay              29   29  -14      -6.12    21.68    -7.64    49.32     5.65   -18.11     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   40.16R   20.19  
Northampton          29   26  -17      -8.12    14.57    -9.38    46.04     5.59   -21.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   64.22R   44.57  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 13 February 2014, Chester 2 1 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            29   63  +38       8.04    85.52    13.23    96.32     5.44    54.09    90.10    99.99    93.80P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    29   57  +26       8.96    87.48    13.70    85.59     5.55    34.24     7.80    97.41    34.87P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.18    96.52     5.69    76.54     5.06     1.81     0.20    61.16     7.74P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.33    70.15     6.17    71.47     5.26    12.35     0.01    26.90     5.10P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        31   50   +1      10.12    88.61     5.38    67.47     5.25    -3.87     0.00     7.97     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.47    87.48     5.11    68.47     4.92    -1.02     0.00     9.57     1.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.06    60.49     0.12    80.32     5.97    23.49     1.78    82.76    27.81P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.14    51.30     8.83    65.14     4.76    10.86     0.00     3.29     0.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.03    44.80    -7.66    73.08     5.64     9.82     0.05    37.64     9.71P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.41    29.31    -5.73    70.18     5.53    11.94     0.00    21.23     5.84P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.52    52.65     0.38    66.27     5.77     4.22     0.00     7.81     1.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.56    14.02    -8.93    66.49     5.47     9.76     0.00     7.43     2.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.32    61.36     6.54    63.03     5.57     2.41     0.00     2.33     0.45P    0.06R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.34    32.87     2.82    69.38     6.12    18.00     0.04    20.66     5.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.20    26.04    -5.50    60.62     5.30    -1.28     0.00     0.58     0.14P    0.19R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   39   -6      -1.76    42.10    -0.81    56.52     4.98    -8.78     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.22R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.29    67.85     7.33    67.20     6.42     8.53     0.01    12.47     2.28P    0.03R    0.00  
Woking           30   36   -8      -1.34    43.85    -1.30    52.61     5.18   -17.22     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.01R    0.00  
Chester          31   31  -18       0.05    51.34    -0.08    47.11     4.96   -25.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.91R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.23    18.62    -6.72    60.59     5.67    16.56     0.00     0.71     0.23P    0.45R    0.00  
Tamworth         28   28  -18      -1.35    43.64    -3.83    46.95     5.54   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.00P   40.72R    0.00  
Southport        30   28  -21      -4.04    30.42    -5.99    45.89     5.26   -27.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.08R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -6.99    18.43    -8.95    43.90     5.20   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.30R    0.00  
Hyde_United      32    8  -57     -16.74     0.43   -19.81    17.18     4.16   -76.47     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10