Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 12 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2014, Arsenal 0 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.28    81.55     3.28    81.40     4.37    39.22    32.19    65.69    85.92    97.24    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   56  +22       6.63    82.24     0.47    78.24     4.50    31.03    12.66    32.92    64.05    90.79    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.33    46.60     6.83    82.24     4.25    59.66    47.34    76.48    91.62    98.70    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   53  +34       1.57    57.95     7.39    76.37     4.56    45.24     7.56    23.15    50.28    84.32    99.25     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   50   +4       8.82    88.55    -3.81    69.82     4.57     8.96     0.20     1.44     6.21    19.61    86.63     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.49    73.55     2.20    66.15     4.80    15.84     0.05     0.28     1.47     6.17    61.17     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   42  +10      -6.32    18.57    -9.86    64.73     4.54    19.83     0.00     0.04     0.45     3.14    50.24     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.31    67.83     8.96    55.03     4.57     6.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.52     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   37   -6       5.33    77.45     1.72    52.49     4.52    -8.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          26   28   -3      -5.04    24.67     1.81    43.49     4.50    -4.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.44R    0.16  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.54    26.52     0.44    41.43     4.38   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.06R    0.55  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.60    41.92     1.25    42.07     4.38   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.08R    0.48  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.07    51.04     7.41    39.45     4.39   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.53R    1.94  
Stoke            26   27  -14      -1.39    42.89    -2.67    40.63     4.37   -18.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.85R    1.21  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.28    70.37     3.12    36.48     4.29   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.63R    9.69  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -1.99    39.45    -5.31    36.41     4.26   -28.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.58R    9.51  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.13    12.84    -1.35    39.58     4.50   -10.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.09R    2.49  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.04    24.24    -5.10    37.19     4.34   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.40R    6.39  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.20    44.19    -4.01    33.45     4.25   -32.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.49R   29.82  
Fulham           26   20  -32      -5.33    21.98   -12.79    32.93     4.37   -38.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.86R   37.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Bolton 0 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      13.99    95.96     5.88    94.79     5.39    32.96    80.51    93.90    99.99    95.60P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   59  +22      10.00    89.76    10.12    84.53     5.55    27.25     8.54    39.96    97.24    53.84P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             29   56  +15       7.60    83.15     2.60    83.99     5.64    21.92     6.74    33.17    96.01    51.28P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   55  +18       8.34    84.53     9.56    81.16     5.55    24.61     2.57    18.79    91.47    34.69P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   54  +20       5.82    76.46     9.34    79.23     5.48    24.93     1.51    11.81    86.06    29.34P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   47  +12      -2.67    37.06    -0.89    73.36     5.55    18.92     0.09     1.62    50.56    15.57P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.14    49.40    -0.57    70.57     5.42    10.97     0.02     0.31    27.19     7.26P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   44   +9       1.88    59.53     7.41    66.11     5.48     9.27     0.00     0.06     8.92     1.75P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           29   43   +5      -2.94    35.94    -4.01    69.34     5.69     9.79     0.01     0.30    21.58     6.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.14    50.82    -0.65    65.19     5.47     2.57     0.00     0.02     5.99     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.43    52.56     3.45    64.22     5.48     4.32     0.00     0.01     4.69     0.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   39   +6      -3.20    34.92     4.34    61.52     5.52     6.95     0.00     0.00     2.12     0.46P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         29   38   +6      -6.58    20.54    -1.43    65.18     5.78    11.84     0.00     0.04     7.68     1.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield    30   37   -3       0.42    52.92     3.77    56.88     5.44    -6.26     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.63R    0.01  
Bournemouth     29   35  -13       3.58    68.75     0.84    53.90     5.63   -20.04     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    3.50R    0.15  
Blackpool       30   34  -14      -3.93    31.56    -9.32    54.05     5.29   -16.84     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.52R    0.08  
Sheff_Wed       29   33   -1      -4.45    28.77     2.24    54.74     5.66    -3.14     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.83R    0.06  
Birmingham      30   33   -2      -8.87    13.22    -3.15    55.27     5.52    -1.38     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.35R    0.03  
Bolton          30   29  -14     -10.11    10.27   -10.80    50.99     5.57   -14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.51R    0.73  
Doncaster       30   29  -19      -1.04    45.84    -2.74    45.55     5.26   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.14R    5.36  
Millwall        30   27  -28      -3.75    31.73   -11.87    43.63     5.18   -36.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.52R   10.30  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.87     9.47    -8.80    46.43     5.74   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.29R    4.43  
Barnsley        28   22  -20      -7.33    15.84    -5.95    39.73     5.49   -30.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.30R   30.32  
Yeovil          29   21  -21      -5.11    25.03     0.63    37.43     5.25   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.33R   48.53  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Carlisle 1 0 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.94    95.03     8.55    91.99     5.74    32.46    36.82    72.45    99.90    80.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.37    70.22     3.96    92.96     5.65    42.01    48.69    79.63    99.95    87.61P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   30   60  +30       9.01    86.31    15.10    86.96     5.57    37.57    12.37    36.94    99.32    54.99P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   55  +12      11.29    92.00     6.17    81.12     5.78    16.17     1.61     7.56    91.18    25.50P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.39    89.03    12.29    73.89     5.94    12.01     0.10     0.82    55.26     9.30P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    29   48   +9       0.06    50.25    -3.49    77.52     5.87    18.97     0.39     2.44    78.86    24.07P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         30   46   +7       2.80    63.51     3.81    69.61     5.56     9.46     0.00     0.08    25.69     5.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         30   44   +8      -5.44    25.52    -4.53    69.91     5.60    13.89     0.01     0.08    29.27     8.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale       29   42   -2       5.39    74.46     3.53    63.47     5.85    -5.47     0.00     0.00     5.03     0.79P    0.45R    0.01  
MK_Dons         29   39   +2      -6.15    22.46    -6.03    64.26     5.89     4.80     0.00     0.00     7.17     1.74P    0.28R    0.01  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.43    62.29     0.36    55.28     5.28   -16.51     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    9.96R    0.73  
Coventry        29   37   +6       2.99    64.26    -0.26    63.63     5.86    11.03     0.00     0.00     6.32     1.51P    0.40R    0.02  
Bradford        30   35   +3      -1.04    45.97    10.71    54.19     5.54    -1.35     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   12.39R    1.06  
Colchester      27   34   -1       0.19    51.61     3.96    57.24     6.03    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.15P    6.64R    0.56  
Oldham          30   34   -8      -1.11    45.42     1.02    53.65     5.50   -11.27     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   16.24R    1.56  
Carlisle        30   33  -17      -0.27    49.70    -3.90    49.58     5.32   -26.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.78R    8.52  
Bristol_City    31   31   -5     -12.37     7.23    -5.76    53.07     5.51    -2.84     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   17.58R    2.28  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.13    50.02     0.07    57.14     6.43    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.14P    8.41R    0.86  
Tranmere        30   31  -19      -4.13    30.91    -9.78    50.84     5.47   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   33.97R    5.83  
Crewe           30   31  -24       0.55    53.90    -6.06    46.71     5.27   -34.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.69R   21.40  
Notts_County    31   30  -10     -10.98     9.26    -7.33    50.17     5.34   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   34.87R    5.99  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.84     8.19   -12.11    53.60     5.96    -9.96     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   17.85R    2.40  
Shrewsbury      30   27  -13      -7.28    17.89    -3.07    46.08     5.41   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.11R   22.01  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -5.03    25.44    -7.21    45.99     5.93   -25.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.38R   26.77  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         30   55  +21       3.42    65.99     5.96    82.99     5.53    29.72    48.72    84.58    99.50    89.54P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           30   52  +14       1.61    57.60     0.59    79.66     5.62    22.23    21.07    64.98    97.75    75.60P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   51  +16       4.26    70.08     7.82    75.24     5.49    19.43     6.94    33.65    90.72    49.05P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   50  +12       5.22    73.89     4.61    76.83     5.90    17.15    10.50    42.96    92.97    55.71P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   50   +5       9.12    87.10     3.11    73.15     5.71     4.93     3.21    18.83    78.96    30.95P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   49  +12       6.46    78.63     7.88    74.25     5.82    14.88     5.06    26.81    85.62    40.13P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             29   47  +11       1.29    56.48     2.34    73.95     5.72    16.26     4.27    25.55    85.27    43.01P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.15    86.02    11.89    63.71     6.42     1.16     0.21     1.81    22.24     5.10P    0.48R    0.09  
Dag_&_Red            30   39   -1       0.26    51.81     2.17    60.46     5.54    -1.48     0.00     0.13     7.78     1.67P    1.09R    0.25  
Plymouth             29   39   -4       2.44    63.21    -0.52    59.97     5.58    -6.59     0.00     0.15     6.29     1.26P    1.22R    0.25  
Hartlepool           30   38   -3      -4.39    30.01    -5.26    61.04     5.59    -1.12     0.00     0.17     9.18     2.50P    0.82R    0.22  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   38   -4       2.62    63.42     4.04    57.40     5.43    -7.51     0.00     0.03     2.54     0.45P    3.60R    1.04  
Morecambe            29   38   -5       0.49    53.02    -2.10    59.03     5.68    -8.06     0.00     0.13     4.95     1.08P    2.21R    0.65  
York                 31   36   -3      -1.89    41.48     2.80    54.55     5.22    -5.56     0.00     0.01     0.75     0.14P    8.24R    2.55  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -4.88    27.77    -5.02    56.72     5.52    -6.55     0.00     0.02     2.04     0.50P    4.68R    1.42  
Exeter               29   35   -4      -4.46    29.27    -3.79    58.48     5.74    -3.61     0.00     0.08     4.47     1.08P    2.77R    0.83  
Mansfield            30   35   -8       1.06    56.07     2.30    54.07     5.52   -12.01     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.10P   12.62R    4.63  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.23    30.26    -0.48    54.45     5.45    -5.84     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.22P    9.61R    3.29  
Accrington_Stanley   28   33   -6      -0.93    45.88     0.16    54.37     5.83   -10.67     0.00     0.02     1.04     0.16P   12.33R    4.71  
Portsmouth           30   33   -9     -10.69    10.19   -12.98    56.14     5.63    -7.26     0.00     0.02     1.74     0.50P    6.23R    2.13  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.49    17.66    -4.82    57.67     6.12    -1.47     0.00     0.05     4.36     1.20P    4.68R    1.64  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.18    15.29    -3.59    51.03     5.46    -8.55     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P   24.75R   11.01  
Torquay              29   29  -14      -6.23    21.54    -7.82    49.36     5.66   -18.03     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   40.17R   20.46  
Northampton          29   26  -17      -8.03    14.75    -9.30    45.99     5.63   -21.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    64.50R   44.83  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Cambridge_Utd 0 1 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            29   63  +38       7.87    85.00    12.94    96.41     5.41    54.33    89.94    99.99    93.70P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    29   57  +26       8.79    86.98    13.44    85.69     5.56    34.40     8.13    97.40    35.33P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.26    96.40     5.79    76.52     5.05     1.79     0.18    60.62     7.62P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.26    70.00     6.04    71.53     5.24    12.42     0.02    26.67     5.17P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        31   50   +1      10.33    89.07     5.74    67.44     5.26    -3.98     0.00     7.80     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.34    87.23     4.85    68.56     4.91    -0.94     0.00     9.66     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.04    60.38     0.07    80.27     5.99    23.51     1.64    82.26    27.64P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   48  +11       1.13    55.42     9.08    66.79     5.02    12.32     0.00     6.84     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.01    44.65    -7.63    73.02     5.72     9.72     0.06    36.96     9.30P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.55    28.69    -5.95    70.21     5.51    12.00     0.00    20.83     5.80P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.66    53.26     0.57    66.27     5.72     4.18     0.00     7.47     1.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.53    14.28    -8.90    66.49     5.45     9.79     0.00     7.22     2.05P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.53    62.53     6.82    62.89     5.56     2.23     0.00     2.09     0.34P    0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.24    33.26     2.90    69.36     6.10    17.92     0.02    20.24     5.02P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.40    25.25    -5.83    60.75     5.33    -1.04     0.00     0.64     0.15P    0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   39   -6      -1.81    41.99    -0.87    56.53     4.96    -8.76     0.00     0.04     0.00P    1.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.09    66.70     7.06    67.22     6.40     8.59     0.00    12.50     2.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           30   36   -8      -1.30    44.05    -1.18    52.55     5.15   -17.35     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.75R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.08    18.91    -6.46    60.61     5.64    16.63     0.00     0.75     0.24P    0.32R    0.00  
Tamworth         28   28  -18      -1.37    43.61    -3.81    46.93     5.54   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.92R    0.00  
Chester          30   28  -19      -0.99    46.17    -0.05    45.15     5.21   -26.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.74R    0.00  
Southport        30   28  -21      -4.10    30.15    -6.09    45.91     5.28   -27.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.48R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -7.12    17.63    -9.17    43.93     5.16   -29.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.57R    0.00  
Hyde_United      32    8  -57     -16.53     0.44   -19.36    17.07     4.13   -76.79     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10