Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 11 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Cardiff 0 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   57  +27       6.36    81.67     3.39    81.42     4.41    39.27    32.38    65.44    86.96    98.18    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   55  +22       7.23    85.26     0.68    78.92     4.73    31.57    16.17    38.77    71.46    93.60    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.30    46.73     6.86    82.21     4.23    59.69    45.71    76.11    92.13    99.01    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   50  +33       0.77    53.81     7.86    75.53     4.75    45.47     5.58    18.57    43.60    83.26    98.79     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   47   +0       8.33    87.75    -5.95    67.76     4.81     4.24     0.08     0.67     3.28    13.02    76.16     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.38    72.95     2.03    66.19     4.82    15.87     0.06     0.34     1.71     7.85    65.24     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   41  +10      -6.15    18.95   -10.27    64.66     4.81    19.18     0.00     0.09     0.86     4.98    54.26     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   39   +8       3.36    68.10     9.02    55.08     4.58     6.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.34     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        25   37   -2       5.49    78.39     3.69    54.29     4.80    -3.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.55     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   28   -5      -4.54    26.68     0.39    41.49     4.39   -10.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.21R    0.53  
Aston_Villa      26   28   -9      -1.51    42.52     1.44    42.04     4.38   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.20R    0.48  
Swansea          25   27   -3      -4.80    25.07     1.72    43.73     4.71    -5.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.83R    0.23  
Hull             26   27   -6      -0.02    50.87     7.49    39.39     4.40   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.50R    2.14  
Stoke            25   26  -14      -1.01    45.16    -2.61    41.07     4.63   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.89R    1.40  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.35    71.04     3.31    36.44     4.27   -27.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.53R   10.51  
Norwich          26   25  -20      -2.09    39.04    -5.43    36.46     4.24   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.01R    9.89  
West_Brom        26   24   -8      -8.21    12.37    -1.50    39.71     4.51    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.05R    2.61  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.06    23.87    -5.12    37.21     4.33   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.08R    6.85  
Cardiff          26   22  -25      -1.24    44.02    -3.98    33.42     4.20   -32.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.40R   31.11  
Fulham           25   20  -31      -4.57    25.25   -13.00    33.55     4.55   -39.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.32R   34.25  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Bolton 0 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      14.00    96.25     5.94    94.83     5.39    32.97    80.76    94.28    99.98    95.80P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   59  +22       9.83    89.01     9.85    84.56     5.55    27.34     8.50    40.13    97.28    54.21P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             29   56  +15       7.79    83.83     2.83    83.97     5.65    21.87     6.58    32.70    96.01    50.73P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   55  +18       8.44    84.86     9.72    81.15     5.51    24.60     2.48    18.62    91.70    34.77P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   54  +20       5.74    76.04     9.24    79.25     5.44    24.98     1.51    11.82    86.36    29.64P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   47  +12      -2.72    37.10    -0.98    73.45     5.56    19.03     0.13     1.69    51.26    15.55P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   46   +7      -0.17    49.41    -0.63    70.56     5.37    10.95     0.03     0.31    26.86     6.96P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   44   +9       1.75    58.96     7.20    66.14     5.45     9.36     0.00     0.04     8.88     1.74P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           29   43   +5      -2.87    36.21    -3.95    69.30     5.65     9.75     0.02     0.32    21.19     6.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.27    51.59    -0.49    65.07     5.44     2.38     0.00     0.01     5.65     1.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    30   42   +4       0.47    52.74     3.48    64.18     5.52     4.26     0.00     0.03     4.61     0.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   39   +6      -3.21    34.98     4.30    61.51     5.50     6.89     0.00     0.01     2.03     0.44P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         29   38   +6      -6.57    20.81    -1.37    65.20     5.79    11.87     0.00     0.03     7.75     2.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    30   37   -3       0.32    52.39     3.63    56.89     5.42    -6.22     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.59R    0.01  
Bournemouth     29   35  -13       3.72    69.32     1.11    53.78     5.65   -20.26     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    3.72R    0.18  
Blackpool       30   34  -14      -3.90    31.87    -9.28    54.02     5.34   -16.87     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.51R    0.10  
Sheff_Wed       29   33   -1      -4.34    28.96     2.37    54.76     5.63    -3.16     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.73R    0.06  
Birmingham      30   33   -2      -9.13    12.89    -3.53    55.38     5.58    -1.20     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    1.34R    0.04  
Bolton          30   29  -14     -10.12     9.80   -10.79    51.01     5.57   -14.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.54R    0.68  
Doncaster       30   29  -19      -0.85    47.08    -2.47    45.46     5.21   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.53R    5.51  
Millwall        30   27  -28      -3.75    31.72   -11.83    43.69     5.17   -36.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.10R   10.13  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.83     9.41    -8.73    46.35     5.73   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.90R    4.61  
Barnsley        28   22  -20      -7.33    16.00    -5.96    39.72     5.52   -30.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.16R   30.76  
Yeovil          29   21  -21      -5.31    24.35     0.33    37.57     5.25   -31.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.84R   47.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Carlisle 1 0 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.98    94.92     8.72    91.93     5.77    32.36    36.57    71.99    99.89    80.06P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.43    71.02     4.00    92.98     5.62    42.09    49.40    79.94    99.95    88.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   30   60  +30       8.94    86.19    14.93    86.94     5.55    37.58    12.00    37.05    99.30    54.78P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   55  +12      11.25    92.14     6.07    81.22     5.75    16.29     1.55     7.69    91.19    25.65P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.41    89.30    12.24    73.82     5.86    11.91     0.09     0.66    54.70     9.04P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    29   48   +9      -0.17    48.80    -3.86    77.63     5.88    19.15     0.38     2.55    79.19    24.46P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         30   46   +7       2.74    63.18     3.77    69.62     5.58     9.48     0.00     0.06    25.73     5.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         30   44   +8      -5.48    25.26    -4.53    69.97     5.63    13.97     0.00     0.05    29.63     8.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       29   42   -2       5.39    74.74     3.48    63.47     5.87    -5.49     0.00     0.01     5.06     0.86P    0.52R    0.01  
MK_Dons         29   39   +2      -6.08    22.98    -5.86    64.23     5.89     4.75     0.00     0.01     7.14     1.71P    0.28R    0.00  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.30    61.54     0.21    55.33     5.29   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    9.86R    0.65  
Coventry        29   37   +6       2.97    63.84    -0.22    63.60     5.90    10.94     0.00     0.00     6.13     1.41P    0.42R    0.02  
Bradford        30   35   +3      -1.11    45.59    10.55    54.27     5.52    -1.19     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   12.07R    1.01  
Colchester      27   34   -1       0.09    51.28     3.86    57.31     6.07    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.13P    6.56R    0.57  
Oldham          30   34   -8      -1.08    45.50     1.05    53.65     5.51   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   16.12R    1.56  
Carlisle        30   33  -17      -0.28    49.52    -3.91    49.61     5.27   -26.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.08R    8.10  
Bristol_City    31   31   -5     -12.30     7.47    -5.70    53.04     5.50    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   17.69R    2.17  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.18    49.84    -0.01    57.17     6.47    -8.98     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.15P    8.55R    0.93  
Tranmere        30   31  -19      -4.21    30.36    -9.92    50.89     5.53   -22.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.76R    5.80  
Crewe           30   31  -24       0.60    54.05    -5.97    46.71     5.25   -34.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.53R   21.31  
Notts_County    31   30  -10     -10.84     9.63    -7.08    50.08     5.35   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   35.07R    5.80  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.81     8.23   -12.10    53.53     5.98   -10.04     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   18.07R    2.29  
Shrewsbury      30   27  -13      -7.23    17.84    -2.94    46.07     5.38   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.06R   21.98  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.78    26.53    -6.78    45.83     5.98   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.36R   27.80  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         30   55  +21       3.41    66.25     5.94    82.99     5.50    29.68    48.39    84.68    99.57    89.56P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           30   52  +14       1.38    56.23     0.23    79.80     5.62    22.42    21.79    65.38    97.92    75.95P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   51  +16       4.24    70.07     7.77    75.17     5.46    19.36     6.55    32.88    90.55    48.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   50  +12       5.29    74.21     4.65    76.84     5.90    17.21    10.32    43.39    92.87    56.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   50   +5       9.22    87.18     3.22    73.13     5.71     4.92     3.16    18.75    78.85    30.41P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   49  +12       6.50    78.81     7.88    74.25     5.82    14.88     5.06    26.58    85.76    39.91P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             29   47  +11       1.17    55.78     2.18    73.97     5.76    16.31     4.48    25.67    85.29    43.39P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.17    85.84    11.87    63.77     6.44     1.25     0.21     1.83    22.77     5.10P    0.56R    0.15  
Dag_&_Red            30   39   -1       0.38    52.57     2.32    60.40     5.56    -1.61     0.00     0.11     7.53     1.61P    1.14R    0.28  
Plymouth             29   39   -4       2.36    62.56    -0.65    59.98     5.55    -6.58     0.00     0.14     6.03     1.20P    1.29R    0.31  
Hartlepool           30   38   -3      -4.41    30.11    -5.27    61.08     5.58    -1.09     0.01     0.21     9.07     2.51P    0.83R    0.23  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   38   -4       2.81    64.69     4.33    57.30     5.46    -7.62     0.00     0.02     2.50     0.45P    3.81R    1.10  
Morecambe            29   38   -5       0.56    53.43    -1.98    58.99     5.68    -8.15     0.00     0.11     4.93     1.10P    2.24R    0.63  
York                 31   36   -3      -1.84    41.84     2.84    54.59     5.21    -5.51     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.18P    8.04R    2.56  
Cheltenham           30   36   -5      -5.02    27.16    -5.15    56.73     5.53    -6.54     0.00     0.03     2.11     0.49P    4.67R    1.41  
Exeter               29   35   -4      -4.45    29.38    -3.74    58.41     5.78    -3.72     0.01     0.08     4.62     1.17P    2.90R    0.92  
Mansfield            30   35   -8       1.07    56.00     2.38    54.05     5.53   -12.03     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.11P   12.70R    4.68  
Bristol_Rovers       30   34   -4      -4.38    29.84    -0.63    54.54     5.49    -5.71     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.17P    9.57R    3.37  
Accrington_Stanley   28   33   -6      -0.92    46.13     0.17    54.36     5.83   -10.65     0.00     0.01     1.06     0.21P   12.47R    4.80  
Portsmouth           30   33   -9     -10.64    10.12   -12.87    56.16     5.64    -7.25     0.00     0.01     1.62     0.48P    6.34R    2.15  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.42    17.95    -4.71    57.56     6.15    -1.61     0.00     0.10     4.33     1.17P    4.91R    1.68  
Wycombe              30   31   -6      -8.07    16.09    -3.42    51.00     5.49    -8.61     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   24.99R   11.03  
Torquay              29   29  -14      -6.40    21.00    -8.09    49.49     5.64   -17.88     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   39.14R   19.42  
Northampton          29   26  -17      -8.03    14.72    -9.27    46.00     5.63   -21.46     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    64.40R   45.30  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2014, Cambridge_Utd 0 1 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            29   63  +38       7.83    84.93    12.92    96.46     5.39    54.42    90.29    99.99    94.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    29   57  +26       8.81    87.23    13.44    85.67     5.54    34.34     7.81    97.49    34.73P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    32   56   +0      15.25    96.45     5.78    76.53     5.09     1.83     0.19    60.69     7.90P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.28    70.12     6.15    71.52     5.24    12.41     0.01    26.77     5.20P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        31   50   +1      10.16    88.58     5.54    67.52     5.26    -3.86     0.00     7.98     1.09P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.35    87.17     4.91    68.54     4.92    -0.95     0.00     9.62     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.11    60.88     0.27    80.22     6.02    23.36     1.61    82.06    27.30P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   48  +11       1.13    55.35     9.12    66.81     5.02    12.39     0.00     6.81     1.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.15    44.08    -7.82    73.08     5.66     9.81     0.06    37.30     9.41P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.64    28.28    -6.12    70.25     5.51    12.05     0.00    20.95     5.88P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   44   +6       0.60    53.15     0.48    66.27     5.73     4.20     0.00     7.29     1.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.56    14.10    -8.93    66.53     5.43     9.84     0.00     7.30     2.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.65    62.86     6.96    62.89     5.57     2.19     0.00     2.15     0.37P    0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.32    33.00     2.85    69.35     6.15    17.94     0.01    20.33     5.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.29    25.81    -5.68    60.74     5.35    -1.11     0.00     0.66     0.14P    0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   39   -6      -1.90    41.30    -1.01    56.56     4.96    -8.71     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.95R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.21    67.46     7.19    67.12     6.37     8.44     0.01    11.80     2.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           30   36   -8      -1.32    43.84    -1.25    52.52     5.16   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.88R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.08    19.02    -6.41    60.57     5.65    16.53     0.00     0.79     0.26P    0.37R    0.00  
Tamworth         28   28  -18      -1.22    44.25    -3.58    46.88     5.52   -27.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.96R    0.00  
Chester          30   28  -19      -1.03    46.12    -0.19    45.15     5.19   -26.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.51R    0.00  
Southport        30   28  -21      -4.11    30.05    -6.09    45.86     5.28   -27.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.93R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -6.98    18.22    -9.00    43.91     5.15   -29.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.16R    0.01  
Hyde_United      32    8  -57     -16.61     0.44   -19.52    17.14     4.13   -76.63     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.99  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10