Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 10 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 February 2014, Man_Utd 2 2 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          25   56  +27       6.99    84.76     3.65    82.38     4.60    40.19    38.83    71.10    89.26    98.45    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   55  +22       7.18    85.12     0.54    78.93     4.76    31.56    14.89    36.77    70.28    93.40    99.70     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.22    47.14     6.97    82.17     4.22    59.63    40.99    74.00    91.83    99.03    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   50  +33       0.75    53.66     7.80    75.58     4.76    45.60     5.19    17.25    43.03    83.84    98.86     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   47   +0       8.30    87.64    -5.99    67.76     4.81     4.27     0.06     0.55     3.02    12.50    76.43     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.32    72.98     1.95    66.21     4.81    15.95     0.04     0.27     1.74     7.81    65.76     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   41  +10      -6.19    18.81   -10.44    64.69     4.79    19.18     0.00     0.06     0.84     4.91    54.97     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        25   37   -2       5.59    78.60     3.85    54.23     4.78    -3.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.26     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      25   36   +7       1.98    61.17     8.46    53.41     4.82     5.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.06     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          25   27   -3      -4.82    24.98     1.65    43.69     4.71    -5.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.12R    0.28  
Hull             25   27   -5       0.79    55.63     7.69    40.94     4.67   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.63R    1.31  
Aston_Villa      25   27   -9      -1.26    43.63     1.42    42.43     4.62   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.66R    0.71  
Stoke            25   26  -14      -1.01    45.18    -2.59    41.04     4.61   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.30R    1.51  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.31    70.52     3.27    36.49     4.29   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.72R   10.87  
West_Ham         25   25   -7      -5.32    22.49    -0.29    40.07     4.61   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.32R    1.94  
Norwich          25   25  -18      -1.48    42.07    -4.57    37.60     4.50   -26.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.20R    7.30  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.08    24.06    -5.13    37.27     4.34   -21.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.71R    7.26  
West_Brom        25   23   -8      -7.94    12.70    -1.61    39.43     4.68   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.07R    3.56  
Cardiff          25   21  -25      -0.90    46.11    -3.67    33.77     4.48   -33.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.21R   30.17  
Fulham           25   20  -31      -4.56    25.11   -12.96    33.51     4.53   -39.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.07R   35.07  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 10 February 2014, Derby 1 0 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      13.92    96.01     5.85    94.85     5.39    33.03    83.13    95.19   100.00    96.57P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         29   56  +21       8.66    86.68     9.52    82.84     5.75    26.18     5.78    32.80    95.80    48.52P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             29   56  +15       7.62    83.16     2.58    84.10     5.61    22.07     7.49    39.00    97.05    56.04P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   55  +18       8.32    84.44     9.50    81.17     5.55    24.62     2.63    22.28    93.34    38.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   51  +17       5.25    74.61     7.93    77.10     5.63    21.22     0.85     7.92    78.91    24.66P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   47  +12      -2.64    37.55    -0.85    73.36     5.55    18.94     0.11     2.07    56.26    17.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   44   +9       2.01    60.09     7.57    66.10     5.43     9.24     0.00     0.09    10.93     2.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        29   43   +6      -1.28    43.77    -0.92    69.23     5.60    10.37     0.01     0.30    24.66     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.31    52.06    -0.44    65.03     5.48     2.32     0.00     0.04     7.20     1.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    29   42   +5       1.09    55.70     3.45    65.43     5.69     5.14     0.00     0.10     9.60     1.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           28   40   +2      -3.26    34.09    -5.11    66.95     5.90     5.71     0.01     0.17    14.78     3.97P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   39   +6      -3.27    34.37     4.23    61.50     5.45     6.90     0.00     0.00     2.63     0.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Huddersfield    29   37   +0       0.45    53.03     4.78    58.79     5.66    -2.45     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.14P    0.33R    0.00  
Watford         28   35   +5      -7.56    16.73    -1.48    63.79     6.00    11.19     0.00     0.04     6.92     1.84P    0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth     29   35  -13       3.56    68.41     0.87    53.82     5.67   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    4.13R    0.20  
Blackpool       30   34  -14      -3.78    32.33    -9.12    53.95     5.30   -16.99     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    2.85R    0.08  
Sheff_Wed       28   33   +2      -4.11    29.88     3.71    56.90     5.84     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    0.95R    0.03  
Birmingham      29   33   -1      -8.10    14.92    -3.02    56.28     5.75    -0.97     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.08P    1.19R    0.02  
Bolton          29   29  -13      -9.15    11.89   -10.36    52.50     5.80   -12.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.31R    0.45  
Doncaster       30   29  -19      -1.02    45.97    -2.73    45.48     5.27   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.81R    5.89  
Millwall        29   26  -28      -3.50    32.84   -11.93    43.99     5.43   -36.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.79R   11.47  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.95     8.80    -8.86    46.43     5.74   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.01R    4.51  
Barnsley        28   22  -20      -7.38    15.67    -5.99    39.75     5.50   -30.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.72R   31.52  
Yeovil          28   20  -21      -4.73    26.27     0.82    38.01     5.51   -31.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.81R   45.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Bradford 3 3 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.77    94.71     8.37    91.98     5.73    32.44    33.19    65.98    99.92    76.12P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.27    69.85     3.76    93.01     5.65    42.16    44.56    75.35    99.94    85.08P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   29   60  +32       9.82    89.15    16.17    89.33     5.75    41.11    20.53    49.74    99.69    64.63P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   55  +12      11.26    91.94     6.13    81.15     5.75    16.18     1.30     6.20    91.29    23.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.41    89.21    12.28    73.88     5.91    11.97     0.10     0.56    55.37     9.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    29   48   +9       0.08    50.27    -3.47    77.53     5.90    19.05     0.31     2.05    78.89    23.98P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         30   46   +7       2.73    63.26     3.72    69.64     5.58     9.48     0.01     0.06    25.87     5.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         30   44   +8      -5.52    25.15    -4.67    69.95     5.63    13.99     0.00     0.06    29.54     8.15P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         29   39   +2      -6.26    22.20    -6.22    64.29     5.85     4.85     0.00     0.00     7.08     1.65P    0.19R    0.01  
Port_Vale       28   39   -4       4.63    72.11     2.94    61.62     6.06    -7.93     0.00     0.00     2.95     0.42P    1.34R    0.05  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.42    62.33     0.37    55.25     5.27   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    8.85R    0.55  
Coventry        29   37   +6       3.08    64.51    -0.06    63.55     5.85    10.88     0.00     0.00     6.16     1.32P    0.34R    0.00  
Bradford        29   35   +4      -0.33    49.05    10.71    55.86     5.76     0.08     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P    7.26R    0.51  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.80    54.87     4.85    58.90     6.32    -3.09     0.00     0.00     1.67     0.26P    3.84R    0.29  
Oldham          30   34   -8      -0.99    45.72     1.12    53.57     5.44   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   14.83R    1.32  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.05    50.55     0.18    57.08     6.47    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.16P    8.01R    0.83  
Tranmere        30   31  -19      -4.21    30.68    -9.94    50.89     5.49   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    31.41R    5.16  
Crewe           30   31  -24       0.56    54.02    -5.98    46.80     5.30   -34.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.56R   18.90  
Notts_County    31   30  -10     -10.85     9.35    -7.11    50.07     5.36   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.88R    5.42  
Carlisle        29   30  -18      -1.64    42.66    -4.31    47.88     5.53   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.21R   13.50  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.91     8.04   -12.20    53.68     5.98    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.04P   16.24R    1.82  
Bristol_City    30   28   -7     -13.42     5.44    -6.88    50.42     5.71    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    30.71R    5.62  
Shrewsbury      30   27  -13      -7.16    18.18    -2.89    46.05     5.42   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.66R   20.44  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.84    26.09    -6.89    45.83     5.95   -25.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.64R   25.59  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 3 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         30   55  +21       3.26    65.41     5.76    83.03     5.51    29.77    48.19    84.56    99.54    89.50P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           30   52  +14       1.69    57.94     0.72    79.66     5.60    22.18    20.75    63.65    97.75    74.52P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   51  +16       4.38    70.27     7.95    75.13     5.53    19.30     6.55    32.21    89.93    47.55P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   50  +12       5.12    73.42     4.42    76.98     5.92    17.38    10.52    43.89    92.92    56.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   50   +5       9.31    87.70     3.38    73.10     5.71     4.90     3.12    18.56    78.41    30.29P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       6.92    80.67     7.96    74.73     6.04    15.00     6.39    29.30    86.37    42.27P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             29   47  +11       1.26    56.28     2.29    73.94     5.75    16.27     4.25    24.96    85.01    42.72P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.19    85.69    12.01    63.65     6.50     1.09     0.21     1.91    21.81     5.07P    0.50R    0.07  
Dag_&_Red            30   39   -1       0.25    51.73     2.12    60.52     5.58    -1.43     0.00     0.15     7.74     1.66P    1.04R    0.22  
Plymouth             29   39   -4       2.46    63.17    -0.47    59.88     5.55    -6.69     0.01     0.13     5.82     1.27P    1.29R    0.21  
Hartlepool           30   38   -3      -4.44    30.00    -5.31    61.09     5.59    -1.05     0.01     0.23     9.10     2.53P    0.80R    0.14  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   38   -4       2.64    63.62     4.09    57.39     5.46    -7.51     0.00     0.04     2.54     0.49P    3.51R    0.86  
Morecambe            29   38   -5       0.43    52.59    -2.16    59.09     5.70    -7.99     0.00     0.13     5.03     1.16P    2.27R    0.52  
York                 31   36   -3      -1.77    42.01     2.94    54.42     5.20    -5.70     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.13P    8.30R    2.09  
Cheltenham           29   36   -4      -3.84    31.90    -4.42    58.17     5.71    -5.47     0.00     0.08     3.87     0.94P    2.95R    0.65  
Exeter               29   35   -4      -4.61    28.61    -3.94    58.49     5.79    -3.62     0.00     0.07     4.53     1.17P    2.79R    0.77  
Mansfield            30   35   -8       0.87    54.97     2.05    54.18     5.56   -11.91     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.15P   11.88R    3.63  
Accrington_Stanley   28   33   -6      -0.82    46.48     0.35    54.31     5.79   -10.74     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.20P   11.61R    3.92  
Portsmouth           30   33   -9     -10.77     9.75   -13.08    56.23     5.64    -7.13     0.00     0.02     1.76     0.51P    5.86R    1.80  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.54    17.42    -4.88    57.69     6.14    -1.43     0.00     0.08     4.53     1.27P    4.45R    1.27  
Bristol_Rovers       29   31   -5      -5.61    24.01    -1.04    52.69     5.65    -7.04     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.07P   16.51R    5.57  
Wycombe              29   30   -6      -7.77    16.42    -3.47    51.30     5.69    -8.70     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   23.21R    8.87  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.09    25.95    -7.18    51.09     5.87   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P   28.34R   11.63  
Northampton          28   23  -18      -9.52     9.86   -10.09    44.00     5.76   -22.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   74.70R   57.76  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Grimsby 0 0 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.64    81.28    12.56    94.80     5.58    53.32    78.90    99.98    86.81P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.39    91.42    14.71    88.06     5.74    37.01    18.78    98.89    42.89P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    31   53   -1      13.37    94.78     4.50    73.99     5.24    -0.70     0.09    42.92     5.02P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.24    69.87     6.02    71.56     5.24    12.46     0.01    29.28     5.22P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.56    87.83     5.24    68.40     4.91    -1.15     0.00    10.36     1.35P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.03    60.20     0.04    80.38     5.98    23.63     2.08    84.06    27.86P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   48  +11       1.27    56.19     9.37    66.77     5.00    12.34     0.01     7.66     1.38P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        30   47   -1       9.74    88.23     5.39    65.82     5.45    -6.06     0.00     5.48     0.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.14    44.13    -7.86    73.08     5.69     9.79     0.05    39.29     9.64P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.28    29.92    -5.61    70.01     5.53    11.69     0.01    21.60     5.96P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   44   +7       1.48    57.82     0.66    67.65     5.96     5.24     0.01    12.81     2.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.54    14.26    -8.96    66.55     5.46     9.87     0.00     8.34     2.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.44    62.14     6.76    62.99     5.55     2.32     0.00     2.65     0.39P    0.06R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.24    33.47     2.90    69.28     6.12    17.78     0.02    21.36     5.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.37    25.20    -5.76    60.64     5.29    -1.16     0.00     0.66     0.14P    0.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   39   -6      -1.75    42.05    -0.79    56.46     4.99    -8.87     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.25R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.11    66.74     7.04    67.28     6.39     8.68     0.03    13.66     2.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Woking           29   36   -6      -0.85    46.11    -0.61    53.74     5.42   -15.63     0.00     0.04     0.00P    5.74R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.29    18.20    -6.80    60.75     5.66    16.92     0.00     0.89     0.29P    0.41R    0.00  
Chester          30   28  -19      -1.19    45.39    -0.42    45.28     5.16   -26.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.32R    0.00  
Southport        30   28  -21      -4.04    30.37    -5.98    45.84     5.26   -27.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.56R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.53    48.10    -3.03    48.20     5.70   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.92R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -7.26    17.53    -9.41    44.02     5.20   -29.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.53R    0.00  
Hyde_United      31    7  -57     -16.69     0.37   -19.99    16.78     4.29   -78.10     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.99  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10