Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 9 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 February 2014, Man_Utd 2 2 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          25   56  +27       6.90    84.27     3.48    82.39     4.64    40.23    38.76    70.85    89.24    98.43    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   55  +22       7.14    85.03     0.44    78.99     4.74    31.67    14.85    37.00    71.16    93.58    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.24    47.05     6.92    82.20     4.24    59.70    41.18    74.15    91.55    98.91    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   50  +33       0.81    53.79     7.92    75.56     4.74    45.55     5.10    17.08    42.47    83.48    98.85     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   47   +0       8.26    87.43    -6.05    67.82     4.81     4.39     0.06     0.55     3.10    12.84    76.64     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   45  +11       4.27    72.53     1.87    66.22     4.82    15.93     0.04     0.29     1.67     7.87    65.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   41  +10      -6.12    18.89   -10.33    64.70     4.76    19.24     0.00     0.07     0.80     4.84    54.78     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        25   37   -2       5.57    78.81     3.82    54.24     4.78    -3.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.36     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      25   36   +7       1.98    61.47     8.46    53.43     4.80     5.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.00     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          25   27   -3      -4.84    25.05     1.64    43.72     4.71    -5.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.00R    0.25  
Hull             25   27   -5       0.77    56.06     7.67    40.90     4.66   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.64R    1.33  
Aston_Villa      25   27   -9      -1.33    43.33     1.33    42.44     4.64   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.85R    0.71  
Stoke            25   26  -14      -1.00    45.10    -2.57    41.03     4.63   -18.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.43R    1.60  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.34    70.83     3.29    36.46     4.25   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.71R   10.84  
West_Ham         25   25   -7      -5.20    23.16    -0.08    40.01     4.61   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.38R    2.03  
Norwich          25   25  -18      -1.50    41.99    -4.61    37.64     4.46   -26.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.38R    6.86  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -4.95    24.88    -4.89    37.19     4.34   -21.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.53R    7.37  
West_Brom        25   23   -8      -8.01    12.54    -1.67    39.37     4.72   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.29R    3.67  
Cardiff          25   21  -25      -0.94    45.88    -3.69    33.80     4.47   -33.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.85R   30.07  
Fulham           25   20  -31      -4.57    25.29   -12.96    33.52     4.53   -39.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.94R   35.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Barnsley 2 2 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      13.86    96.05     5.63    94.88     5.41    33.04    80.90    94.87    99.99    96.31P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         29   56  +21       8.60    86.17     9.44    82.83     5.78    26.19     5.70    31.39    95.74    48.05P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   56  +16       8.75    87.13     3.22    85.42     5.86    23.00    10.84    48.70    98.02    62.75P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   52  +17       7.16    81.05     9.25    79.43     5.75    23.47     1.65    14.71    88.35    31.16P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   51  +17       5.22    74.38     7.87    77.18     5.68    21.32     0.76     7.77    79.48    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   47  +12      -2.47    38.35    -0.58    73.25     5.58    18.78     0.12     1.94    56.04    17.11P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   44   +9       1.90    59.52     7.41    66.09     5.45     9.25     0.00     0.05    11.44     2.37P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        29   43   +6      -1.32    43.31    -0.96    69.21     5.66    10.36     0.01     0.25    25.32     6.82P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.14    51.03    -0.71    65.13     5.50     2.44     0.00     0.02     7.87     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    29   42   +5       1.27    56.67     3.71    65.36     5.72     5.06     0.00     0.06     9.94     2.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Wigan           28   40   +2      -3.50    33.05    -5.45    67.07     5.89     5.89     0.01     0.19    15.60     4.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   39   +6      -3.24    34.73     4.28    61.49     5.50     6.91     0.00     0.00     2.76     0.60P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield    29   37   +0       0.52    53.18     4.88    58.77     5.68    -2.45     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.17P    0.34R    0.00  
Watford         28   35   +5      -7.46    17.13    -1.27    63.73     5.98    11.11     0.00     0.04     7.28     1.84P    0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth     29   35  -13       3.70    69.09     1.11    53.79     5.65   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    4.15R    0.22  
Blackpool       30   34  -14      -4.08    31.10    -9.51    54.07     5.32   -16.81     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.72R    0.11  
Sheff_Wed       28   33   +2      -4.03    30.10     3.80    56.82     5.90     0.89     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.12P    1.09R    0.03  
Birmingham      29   33   -1      -8.15    14.94    -3.10    56.33     5.76    -0.91     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.07P    1.22R    0.02  
Bolton          29   29  -13      -9.08    12.14   -10.20    52.44     5.81   -12.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    6.53R    0.48  
Doncaster       30   29  -19      -0.91    46.33    -2.54    45.44     5.21   -27.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.32R    6.20  
Millwall        29   26  -28      -3.44    32.98   -11.77    43.97     5.41   -36.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.93R   11.63  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.88     9.26    -8.78    46.40     5.72   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.19R    4.79  
Barnsley        28   22  -20      -7.46    15.53    -6.07    39.86     5.51   -30.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.06R   31.41  
Yeovil          28   20  -21      -4.98    25.53     0.37    38.13     5.58   -31.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.32R   45.11  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Bradford 3 3 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.83    94.72     8.46    91.92     5.79    32.31    33.03    66.43    99.88    76.35P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.42    70.87     4.02    92.95     5.63    42.07    44.78    75.27    99.95    84.98P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   29   60  +32      10.03    89.45    16.52    89.23     5.73    40.98    20.48    49.29    99.72    64.41P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   55  +12      11.12    91.89     5.90    81.24     5.72    16.34     1.31     6.43    91.52    24.45P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.51    89.45    12.40    73.86     5.92    11.95     0.08     0.60    55.16     8.92P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    29   48   +9      -0.03    49.66    -3.68    77.53     5.87    19.03     0.31     1.88    78.93    23.75P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         30   46   +7       2.70    62.99     3.68    69.63     5.62     9.50     0.01     0.05    26.15     5.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         30   44   +8      -5.32    25.91    -4.35    69.83     5.61    13.77     0.01     0.04    28.80     7.61P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons         29   39   +2      -6.12    22.72    -6.03    64.21     5.88     4.76     0.00     0.00     7.01     1.74P    0.22R    0.00  
Port_Vale       28   39   -4       4.63    71.96     2.93    61.58     6.08    -7.99     0.00     0.00     3.17     0.52P    1.37R    0.07  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.30    61.63     0.21    55.33     5.30   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    8.84R    0.58  
Coventry        29   37   +6       2.96    64.02    -0.27    63.66     5.91    11.08     0.00     0.00     6.56     1.49P    0.37R    0.01  
Bradford        29   35   +4      -0.17    50.01    10.98    55.83     5.75     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P    7.36R    0.64  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.77    54.58     4.75    58.95     6.27    -3.00     0.00     0.00     1.65     0.25P    3.78R    0.24  
Oldham          30   34   -8      -0.93    46.15     1.25    53.58     5.47   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   14.94R    1.36  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.23    49.40    -0.05    57.19     6.45    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.12P    7.71R    0.74  
Tranmere        30   31  -19      -4.28    29.97    -9.98    50.87     5.48   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.68R    5.10  
Crewe           30   31  -24       0.54    53.60    -5.96    46.79     5.26   -34.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.84R   18.76  
Notts_County    31   30  -10     -10.88     9.60    -7.20    50.17     5.34   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.18R    5.22  
Carlisle        29   30  -18      -1.74    42.24    -4.47    47.93     5.54   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   53.08R   13.91  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.86     7.94   -12.17    53.56     5.98    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   16.69R    2.06  
Bristol_City    30   28   -7     -13.50     5.30    -7.04    50.51     5.72    -6.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    30.37R    5.61  
Shrewsbury      30   27  -13      -7.17    18.02    -2.90    46.05     5.40   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.16R   20.15  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.90    25.80    -7.00    45.86     5.97   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.42R   25.54  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 3 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         30   55  +21       3.29    65.31     5.77    83.00     5.52    29.72    48.18    84.24    99.54    89.32P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           30   52  +14       1.58    57.26     0.49    79.67     5.60    22.23    20.89    64.01    97.85    75.05P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   51  +16       4.16    69.44     7.70    75.22     5.53    19.41     6.76    32.90    90.15    48.21P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   50  +12       5.35    74.56     4.80    76.82     5.93    17.16    10.35    42.84    92.54    55.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   50   +5       9.25    87.46     3.26    73.12     5.74     4.90     3.19    18.45    78.19    30.08P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       7.01    81.30     8.10    74.66     6.03    14.93     6.06    29.12    86.14    42.07P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             29   47  +11       1.19    55.84     2.18    74.03     5.73    16.37     4.31    25.58    85.15    43.26P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.18    85.92    11.93    63.71     6.49     1.14     0.22     1.94    22.22     5.21P    0.48R    0.08  
Dag_&_Red            30   39   -1       0.38    52.25     2.29    60.42     5.56    -1.56     0.00     0.14     7.61     1.57P    1.03R    0.22  
Plymouth             29   39   -4       2.35    62.52    -0.67    60.03     5.57    -6.55     0.00     0.16     6.23     1.37P    1.21R    0.23  
Hartlepool           30   38   -3      -4.43    29.92    -5.26    61.09     5.58    -1.05     0.01     0.19     9.26     2.45P    0.83R    0.13  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   38   -4       2.53    63.27     3.95    57.44     5.46    -7.46     0.00     0.02     2.53     0.43P    3.38R    0.76  
Morecambe            29   38   -5       0.58    53.66    -2.01    59.01     5.64    -8.08     0.00     0.11     4.59     0.98P    2.08R    0.55  
York                 31   36   -3      -1.95    40.97     2.69    54.56     5.17    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.13P    7.58R    1.83  
Cheltenham           29   36   -4      -3.85    31.92    -4.43    58.17     5.74    -5.44     0.01     0.09     4.03     1.02P    3.13R    0.79  
Exeter               29   35   -4      -4.57    28.62    -3.94    58.54     5.76    -3.57     0.00     0.09     4.49     1.15P    2.73R    0.68  
Mansfield            30   35   -8       0.83    55.16     2.04    54.13     5.54   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.13P   11.99R    3.65  
Accrington_Stanley   28   33   -6      -0.89    46.40     0.20    54.32     5.85   -10.70     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.20P   11.89R    3.79  
Portsmouth           30   33   -9     -10.67    10.30   -12.90    56.10     5.67    -7.32     0.00     0.01     1.69     0.48P    6.20R    1.82  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.55    17.50    -4.88    57.69     6.13    -1.48     0.00     0.08     4.34     1.18P    4.44R    1.29  
Bristol_Rovers       29   31   -5      -5.48    24.61    -0.86    52.70     5.65    -7.02     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P   16.60R    5.57  
Wycombe              29   30   -6      -7.62    16.88    -3.22    51.22     5.70    -8.82     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P   23.88R    9.33  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.14    25.62    -7.27    51.15     5.86   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   27.84R   11.58  
Northampton          28   23  -18      -9.45    10.43    -9.98    44.02     5.79   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.71R   57.71  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Grimsby 0 0 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.55    81.09    12.48    94.91     5.64    53.47    79.19    99.97    87.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.32    91.31    14.69    88.10     5.72    37.05    18.64    99.02    42.98P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    31   53   -1      13.47    94.99     4.67    74.02     5.23    -0.69     0.09    43.30     5.25P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.27    69.96     6.05    71.49     5.23    12.36     0.02    28.56     5.17P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.49    87.67     5.16    68.47     4.88    -1.01     0.01    10.50     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.00    60.40    -0.03    80.36     5.96    23.64     1.89    84.05    27.69P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   48  +11       1.21    55.65     9.30    66.85     5.03    12.43     0.00     7.94     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        30   47   -1       9.45    87.76     4.99    65.99     5.45    -5.77     0.01     5.83     0.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -0.99    44.90    -7.68    72.95     5.69     9.63     0.08    38.66     9.34P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.43    28.97    -5.80    70.08     5.51    11.78     0.01    21.97     5.80P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   44   +7       1.58    58.18     0.78    67.57     5.94     5.09     0.01    12.48     2.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.60    13.97    -9.06    66.51     5.44     9.81     0.00     8.29     2.17P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.50    62.55     6.79    62.89     5.54     2.17     0.00     2.52     0.43P    0.08R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.44    32.25     2.53    69.42     6.11    18.05     0.03    22.09     5.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.31    25.55    -5.69    60.69     5.32    -1.10     0.00     0.74     0.12P    0.17R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   39   -6      -1.89    41.21    -0.93    56.60     4.95    -8.65     0.00     0.05     0.00P    1.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.31    68.06     7.38    67.09     6.39     8.40     0.02    13.16     2.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Woking           29   36   -6      -0.91    45.91    -0.71    53.70     5.39   -15.69     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.53R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.08    18.85    -6.53    60.63     5.63    16.68     0.00     0.84     0.30P    0.42R    0.00  
Chester          30   28  -19      -1.07    45.86    -0.25    45.16     5.18   -26.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.36R    0.00  
Southport        30   28  -21      -4.11    30.00    -6.01    45.88     5.25   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.68R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.57    47.88    -3.11    48.23     5.75   -25.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.68R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -7.08    18.04    -9.07    43.90     5.17   -29.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.00R    0.00  
Hyde_United      31    7  -57     -16.65     0.36   -19.94    16.80     4.32   -78.01     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10