Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 8 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Aston_Villa 0 2 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          25   56  +27       7.11    85.35     3.78    82.33     4.61    40.14    38.76    70.65    89.13    98.04    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   55  +22       7.19    85.04     0.53    78.90     4.76    31.51    14.97    36.78    69.51    92.07    99.63     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   54  +41      -0.28    46.85     6.85    82.14     4.25    59.59    40.82    73.85    91.21    98.64    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   50  +33       0.65    52.96     7.58    75.62     4.72    45.64     5.29    17.46    42.74    81.42    98.64     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   45  +12       5.32    77.55     2.38    67.61     5.03    17.00     0.10     0.68     3.37    12.53    72.07     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   44   -1       7.06    84.52    -6.40    66.22     5.07     3.37     0.04     0.29     1.88     7.97    58.68     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -5.21    21.91    -9.34    66.46     4.91    21.77     0.02     0.28     2.16     9.30    67.18     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        25   37   -2       5.46    78.25     3.65    54.29     4.79    -3.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.17     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      25   36   +7       1.99    61.55     8.53    53.32     4.80     5.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.69     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          25   27   -3      -4.76    25.01     1.73    43.66     4.69    -5.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.94R    0.20  
Hull             25   27   -5       0.93    56.59     7.99    40.86     4.66   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.53R    1.16  
Aston_Villa      25   27   -9      -1.32    43.30     1.30    42.53     4.62   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.29R    0.56  
Stoke            25   26  -14      -0.95    45.46    -2.43    41.03     4.63   -18.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.27R    1.35  
Crystal_Palace   25   26  -16       3.21    69.91     3.14    36.50     4.27   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.33R    9.69  
West_Ham         25   25   -7      -5.30    22.61    -0.23    40.06     4.60   -11.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.79R    1.66  
Norwich          25   25  -18      -1.46    42.36    -4.46    37.61     4.49   -26.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.21R    6.46  
Sunderland       25   24  -13      -5.06    24.13    -5.07    37.18     4.33   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.99R    6.56  
West_Brom        25   23   -8      -8.13    12.45    -1.85    39.53     4.71   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.12R    2.99  
Cardiff          25   21  -25      -0.87    46.20    -3.60    33.78     4.48   -33.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.22R   27.62  
Fulham           24   19  -31      -4.71    24.19   -14.06    32.64     4.65   -41.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.32R   41.74  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Barnsley 2 2 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       30   67  +24      13.88    96.19     5.70    94.86     5.39    33.07    80.72    94.96   100.00    96.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         29   56  +21       8.62    86.54     9.47    82.90     5.79    26.23     5.75    31.62    95.71    47.95P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   56  +16       8.70    87.07     3.17    85.49     5.88    23.11    11.01    48.73    98.09    63.14P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   52  +17       7.07    81.20     9.17    79.48     5.73    23.51     1.61    14.36    88.66    30.68P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   51  +17       5.24    74.27     7.96    77.12     5.67    21.23     0.79     7.65    79.25    24.52P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   47  +12      -2.50    38.05    -0.62    73.34     5.54    18.86     0.10     2.04    56.63    17.43P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   44   +9       1.92    59.87     7.44    66.07     5.45     9.22     0.00     0.06    11.26     2.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        29   43   +6      -1.40    43.16    -1.03    69.30     5.59    10.46     0.01     0.27    25.59     6.82P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   +2       0.32    51.84    -0.42    65.01     5.44     2.28     0.00     0.02     7.25     1.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    29   42   +5       1.25    56.55     3.65    65.34     5.68     5.03     0.00     0.06     9.63     2.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           28   40   +2      -3.47    33.30    -5.40    66.98     5.90     5.79     0.01     0.17    15.36     4.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   39   +6      -3.24    34.70     4.23    61.47     5.52     6.85     0.00     0.01     2.73     0.60P    0.06R    0.00  
Huddersfield    29   37   +0       0.53    53.44     4.87    58.77     5.67    -2.43     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.19P    0.36R    0.01  
Watford         28   35   +5      -7.75    16.04    -1.71    63.85     6.04    11.29     0.00     0.04     7.72     2.04P    0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth     29   35  -13       3.56    68.39     0.86    53.88     5.65   -20.11     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P    3.96R    0.18  
Blackpool       30   34  -14      -3.90    31.77    -9.29    54.04     5.33   -16.90     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    2.82R    0.11  
Sheff_Wed       28   33   +2      -4.04    30.11     3.79    56.77     5.91     0.83     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.11P    1.08R    0.05  
Birmingham      29   33   -1      -8.23    14.58    -3.19    56.38     5.78    -0.81     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.09P    1.16R    0.02  
Bolton          29   29  -13      -9.07    12.21   -10.20    52.46     5.83   -12.90     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    6.54R    0.46  
Doncaster       30   29  -19      -0.90    46.49    -2.45    45.36     5.26   -27.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.53R    6.19  
Millwall        29   26  -28      -3.49    32.90   -11.89    43.99     5.39   -36.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.61R   11.33  
Charlton        28   24  -15      -9.84     9.39    -8.69    46.42     5.73   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.18R    4.64  
Barnsley        28   22  -20      -7.40    15.95    -5.96    39.77     5.49   -30.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.17R   31.73  
Yeovil          28   20  -21      -4.87    25.72     0.54    38.07     5.54   -31.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.46R   45.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Bradford 3 3 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.89    94.94     8.53    91.90     5.77    32.33    32.85    65.57    99.90    75.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.33    70.32     3.80    93.00     5.62    42.14    44.85    75.41    99.93    85.24P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   29   60  +32       9.93    89.11    16.36    89.28     5.75    41.07    20.61    49.77    99.73    64.60P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   55  +12      11.24    91.80     6.07    81.13     5.81    16.20     1.29     6.42    90.92    24.25P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.44    89.32    12.32    73.93     5.94    12.06     0.10     0.59    55.04     8.89P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    29   48   +9      -0.20    48.94    -3.95    77.66     5.88    19.28     0.29     2.09    79.30    23.86P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         30   46   +7       2.57    62.50     3.49    69.72     5.59     9.62     0.01     0.05    26.58     5.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         30   44   +8      -5.50    25.23    -4.64    69.90     5.65    13.91     0.01     0.09    29.14     7.88P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons         29   39   +2      -6.18    22.39    -6.08    64.20     5.86     4.71     0.00     0.01     6.97     1.71P    0.23R    0.01  
Port_Vale       28   39   -4       4.68    72.35     3.02    61.58     6.04    -7.91     0.00     0.00     2.95     0.45P    1.22R    0.05  
Gillingham      31   38  -11       2.45    62.17     0.40    55.28     5.29   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    8.80R    0.51  
Coventry        29   37   +6       3.04    64.42    -0.14    63.63     5.90    10.99     0.00     0.00     6.29     1.48P    0.33R    0.02  
Bradford        29   35   +4      -0.10    50.22    11.07    55.79     5.76    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    7.29R    0.54  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.74    54.61     4.74    58.92     6.33    -3.09     0.00     0.00     1.73     0.31P    3.90R    0.27  
Oldham          30   34   -8      -1.02    45.90     1.11    53.59     5.49   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   14.90R    1.30  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.33    48.94    -0.21    57.23     6.42    -8.84     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.16P    7.52R    0.83  
Tranmere        30   31  -19      -4.15    30.38    -9.82    50.85     5.51   -22.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    31.52R    5.26  
Crewe           30   31  -24       0.50    53.84    -6.06    46.81     5.27   -34.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.34R   18.73  
Notts_County    31   30  -10     -10.89     9.57    -7.16    50.11     5.34   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.52R    5.30  
Carlisle        29   30  -18      -1.57    42.97    -4.23    47.85     5.52   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    53.35R   13.68  
Sheff_Utd       28   29  -10     -10.91     7.88   -12.23    53.61     5.98    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   16.35R    1.96  
Bristol_City    30   28   -7     -13.28     5.73    -6.71    50.43     5.75    -6.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.04R    5.67  
Shrewsbury      30   27  -13      -7.07    18.53    -2.77    46.00     5.41   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.13R   20.59  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.88    26.30    -6.89    45.82     5.91   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.57R   25.29  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 3 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         30   55  +21       3.41    65.93     5.95    82.93     5.52    29.61    47.53    83.94    99.49    88.97P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           30   52  +14       1.57    57.31     0.49    79.67     5.62    22.25    21.18    64.09    97.76    74.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   51  +16       4.28    70.14     7.84    75.20     5.52    19.36     6.67    32.67    90.22    48.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   50  +12       5.23    73.85     4.62    76.84     5.91    17.18    10.46    43.02    92.57    55.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   50   +5       9.12    86.96     3.09    73.23     5.74     5.06     3.31    19.06    78.69    30.83P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       6.95    80.85     8.02    74.64     6.04    14.90     6.08    28.86    85.92    41.82P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             29   47  +11       1.15    55.76     2.14    74.05     5.75    16.40     4.55    25.66    85.06    43.32P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.10    85.70    11.88    63.72     6.48     1.16     0.19     1.83    22.12     5.22P    0.48R    0.08  
Dag_&_Red            30   39   -1       0.36    52.46     2.30    60.40     5.54    -1.59     0.00     0.13     7.28     1.53P    1.05R    0.24  
Plymouth             29   39   -4       2.36    62.52    -0.67    60.04     5.55    -6.52     0.00     0.15     6.16     1.26P    1.14R    0.20  
Hartlepool           30   38   -3      -4.44    29.97    -5.34    61.08     5.59    -1.08     0.01     0.19     9.08     2.48P    0.86R    0.16  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   38   -4       2.76    64.17     4.31    57.36     5.46    -7.58     0.00     0.03     2.63     0.45P    3.56R    0.83  
Morecambe            29   38   -5       0.56    53.41    -2.00    59.04     5.70    -8.07     0.00     0.09     5.02     1.07P    2.16R    0.52  
York                 31   36   -3      -1.77    41.92     2.90    54.45     5.17    -5.65     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.14P    8.11R    2.04  
Cheltenham           29   36   -4      -3.90    31.66    -4.50    58.23     5.72    -5.34     0.00     0.08     3.99     0.96P    2.87R    0.60  
Exeter               29   35   -4      -4.76    28.05    -4.19    58.55     5.78    -3.52     0.00     0.08     4.60     1.18P    2.59R    0.70  
Mansfield            30   35   -8       1.06    56.25     2.30    54.06     5.52   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.09P   12.15R    3.78  
Accrington_Stanley   28   33   -6      -0.81    46.62     0.30    54.33     5.83   -10.71     0.00     0.02     1.13     0.25P   11.76R    3.76  
Portsmouth           30   33   -9     -10.84     9.93   -13.19    56.25     5.67    -7.09     0.00     0.01     1.77     0.52P    5.84R    1.71  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.43    17.90    -4.70    57.63     6.11    -1.53     0.00     0.07     4.34     1.21P    4.36R    1.29  
Bristol_Rovers       29   31   -5      -5.51    24.39    -0.89    52.70     5.65    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.09P   16.43R    5.61  
Wycombe              29   30   -6      -7.77    16.49    -3.49    51.28     5.69    -8.72     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.07P   23.63R    8.92  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.21    25.16    -7.30    51.18     5.84   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   27.79R   11.24  
Northampton          28   23  -18      -9.35    10.59    -9.86    43.94     5.78   -23.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.22R   58.31  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2014, Grimsby 0 0 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.73    81.67    12.77    94.76     5.64    53.24    78.68    99.99    86.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.31    91.17    14.60    88.11     5.72    37.08    19.07    99.08    43.36P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    31   53   -1      13.46    94.95     4.69    73.99     5.22    -0.73     0.10    43.19     5.23P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.33    70.13     6.18    71.44     5.21    12.29     0.01    28.66     5.09P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.47    87.53     5.08    68.54     4.89    -0.95     0.00    10.69     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   49  +15       2.11    60.89     0.20    80.30     5.95    23.51     2.01    84.01    27.29P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   48  +11       1.20    55.69     9.17    66.84     5.01    12.42     0.00     8.06     1.33P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        30   47   -1       9.53    88.00     5.14    65.95     5.45    -5.80     0.00     5.70     0.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.02    44.71    -7.77    72.99     5.68     9.66     0.05    38.87     9.57P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.50    28.84    -5.89    70.10     5.49    11.83     0.01    22.27     6.16P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   44   +7       1.59    58.22     0.88    67.51     5.93     5.03     0.00    12.31     2.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   42   +6      -8.42    14.54    -8.69    66.40     5.49     9.66     0.00     8.08     2.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.51    62.45     6.76    62.95     5.54     2.24     0.00     2.60     0.44P    0.06R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.24    33.09     2.88    69.29     6.09    17.83     0.03    21.43     5.03P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.53    24.84    -5.95    60.79     5.34    -0.92     0.00     0.81     0.16P    0.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   39   -6      -1.92    41.42    -1.06    56.55     4.96    -8.71     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.07R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.23    67.53     7.26    67.15     6.37     8.49     0.02    13.25     2.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           29   36   -6      -0.97    45.73    -0.84    53.82     5.37   -15.47     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.24R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.21    18.51    -6.68    60.65     5.65    16.73     0.00     0.93     0.31P    0.40R    0.00  
Chester          30   28  -19      -1.09    45.92    -0.26    45.16     5.20   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.56R    0.00  
Southport        30   28  -21      -4.23    29.57    -6.31    45.98     5.24   -27.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.38R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.53    48.07    -3.03    48.24     5.72   -25.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.56R    0.00  
Dartford         31   26  -25      -7.10    18.05    -9.09    43.89     5.17   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.52R    0.01  
Hyde_United      31    7  -57     -16.65     0.32   -20.04    16.83     4.31   -77.93     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.99  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10