Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 7 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 February 2014, Man_City 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          24   55  +26       7.37    86.68     2.61    80.57     4.95    35.92    21.15    49.29    82.18    95.63    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   53  +41       0.52    51.69     7.10    83.72     4.41    61.82    52.14    81.19    95.74    99.35    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   53  +24       6.75    84.36     2.91    81.40     4.81    38.23    24.47    58.83    87.01    97.15    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        24   47  +29       0.46    51.91     6.43    73.67     4.98    40.92     2.09     9.48    27.79    70.76    96.39     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   45  +12       5.26    77.45     2.29    67.57     5.02    16.92     0.08     0.66     3.31    15.32    71.96     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   44   -1       7.00    83.96    -6.43    66.11     5.07     3.26     0.04     0.27     1.90     9.80    58.05     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -5.29    21.98    -9.34    66.55     4.89    21.84     0.04     0.29     2.07    11.86    67.76     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        24   37   +1       5.75    79.67     4.78    55.05     4.94    -1.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     3.22     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      24   35   +7       2.77    65.94     8.96    54.31     5.02     6.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.90     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      24   27   -7      -0.34    48.99     2.65    44.52     4.89   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.31R    0.20  
Stoke            24   25  -14      -0.97    45.35    -3.18    40.82     4.82   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.32R    1.48  
Swansea          24   24   -6      -5.34    22.09     0.37    42.33     4.94    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.40R    0.70  
Hull             24   24   -7      -0.47    48.30     6.55    38.39     4.82   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.66R    4.03  
Sunderland       24   24  -11      -3.93    29.09    -3.51    39.15     4.57   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.36R    2.56  
Norwich          24   24  -18      -1.56    41.62    -5.17    36.94     4.63   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.05R    7.95  
West_Brom        24   23   -6      -7.14    15.09    -0.65    41.40     4.94    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.45R    1.43  
Crystal_Palace   24   23  -18       2.08    64.50     1.76    34.28     4.46   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.16R   20.65  
West_Ham         24   22   -9      -6.58    16.59    -1.70    37.89     4.78   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.40R    4.71  
Cardiff          24   21  -22      -0.64    47.45    -2.51    34.95     4.70   -30.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.85R   17.58  
Fulham           24   19  -31      -4.59    24.61   -13.93    32.62     4.64   -41.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.07R   38.71  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2014, Nott'm_Forest 3 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       29   66  +24      14.52    97.04     6.16    95.79     5.57    33.90    84.32    96.06    99.99    97.18P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   56  +16       8.73    86.91     3.22    85.39     5.84    22.97     9.25    48.49    97.47    62.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   53  +19       8.06    85.36     9.05    81.76     5.97    25.07     3.63    25.18    92.18    41.73P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   52  +17       6.99    80.72     8.99    79.47     5.74    23.52     1.42    14.59    86.50    30.25P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   50  +17       5.62    76.51     7.91    77.63     5.90    21.44     0.95     9.23    78.19    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         29   47  +14      -1.75    41.41     0.30    75.98     5.76    22.86     0.40     5.56    70.88    24.96P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   43   +9       2.48    62.49     7.71    66.66     5.66     9.58     0.00     0.10    12.14     2.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   42   +2       0.27    51.74    -1.02    65.18     5.68     1.97     0.00     0.04     7.33     1.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton        28   40   +5      -2.31    38.19    -1.03    68.26     5.80    10.30     0.01     0.22    18.43     4.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           27   40   +3      -2.22    38.94    -4.62    68.64     6.13     7.16     0.02     0.45    20.58     5.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    28   39   +4      -0.01    50.40     3.24    63.82     5.88     4.16     0.00     0.04     5.69     1.20P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   38   +6      -2.87    36.42     4.28    62.31     5.75     7.51     0.00     0.01     3.54     0.79P    0.07R    0.00  
Watford         27   34   +5      -7.42    16.59    -1.79    63.57     6.14    10.26     0.00     0.02     6.10     1.63P    0.06R    0.00  
Huddersfield    28   34   -1      -0.78    46.49     4.45    56.88     5.88    -3.89     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P    1.42R    0.06  
Bournemouth     28   34  -13       3.69    69.17     0.44    53.51     5.77   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.05R    0.37  
Blackpool       29   33  -14      -3.71    32.55    -9.43    54.42     5.53   -16.88     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    3.52R    0.18  
Sheff_Wed       27   30   +0      -5.25    24.37     2.46    54.00     6.04    -2.96     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    4.51R    0.31  
Birmingham      28   30   -3      -9.28    11.21    -4.20    54.20     5.98    -3.66     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    4.30R    0.21  
Doncaster       29   29  -18      -0.38    49.07    -2.45    46.27     5.40   -27.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.97R    6.18  
Bolton          28   28  -13      -8.33    13.89    -9.62    53.53     6.01   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    6.22R    0.55  
Millwall        28   26  -26      -3.01    35.12   -11.43    44.66     5.56   -35.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.01R   12.05  
Charlton        27   24  -13      -9.04    10.97    -7.49    48.30     5.99   -15.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.78R    3.45  
Barnsley        27   21  -20      -7.19    15.59    -6.30    40.00     5.71   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.82R   35.79  
Yeovil          27   20  -20      -3.76    30.82     1.17    39.32     5.74   -30.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.22R   40.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Bristol_City 1 2 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.86    94.84     8.51    91.93     5.78    32.33    29.46    61.80    99.91    73.41P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.27    69.98     3.82    92.94     5.64    42.08    39.83    72.14    99.94    83.52P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   28   60  +33      11.19    92.39    17.19    91.26     6.00    43.01    29.75    60.60    99.86    72.54P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         28   52  +11      10.03    89.98     5.69    79.56     5.99    15.28     0.75     3.75    85.95    21.04P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.18    88.80    11.88    74.20     5.92    12.47     0.06     0.55    57.69     9.56P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.21    65.61     5.42    71.64     5.77    13.40     0.01     0.14    41.26     8.87P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.50    42.64    -4.40    75.40     6.09    17.16     0.13     0.99    67.43    19.41P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         29   41   +7      -6.43    20.99    -4.55    68.37     5.88    13.00     0.00     0.02    22.60     6.31P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale       27   39   -3       5.64    76.79     3.25    62.87     6.26    -7.08     0.00     0.00     5.47     0.85P    0.87R    0.04  
Coventry        28   37   +9       3.54    66.89     1.34    65.60     6.07    14.98     0.00     0.00    12.39     3.00P    0.20R    0.01  
MK_Dons         28   36   -1      -6.83    19.58    -7.59    61.86     6.05     0.64     0.00     0.00     3.85     0.87P    0.92R    0.05  
Gillingham      30   35  -12       0.96    55.69    -0.37    53.40     5.48   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   16.97R    1.68  
Bradford        28   34   +4       0.42    52.95    11.10    56.50     5.94     0.58     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.09P    6.35R    0.51  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.65    53.88     4.61    58.86     6.26    -3.13     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.31P    3.70R    0.28  
Oldham          29   33   -8      -0.68    47.25     1.11    54.04     5.74   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   14.40R    1.40  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.10    50.02     0.14    57.16     6.48    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.18P    7.83R    0.88  
Tranmere        29   31  -18      -3.19    34.92    -9.44    52.17     5.70   -21.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   23.94R    3.45  
Carlisle        28   30  -17      -0.37    49.02    -3.60    49.46     5.77   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    41.82R    9.26  
Crewe           29   30  -24       0.72    55.09    -6.53    46.70     5.47   -34.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.68R   20.32  
Bristol_City    29   27   -7     -12.95     5.66    -6.74    50.78     5.90    -6.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   29.17R    5.67  
Shrewsbury      29   27  -11      -6.67    19.73    -2.07    47.27     5.57   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.40R   15.22  
Notts_County    30   27  -13     -11.50     7.62    -8.60    47.95     5.56   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.25R   12.11  
Sheff_Utd       27   26  -12     -11.74     5.90   -13.06    52.03     6.15   -11.89     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   24.48R    4.10  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.98    25.47    -7.11    45.90     5.93   -25.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.00R   25.01  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Bury 1 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         29   54  +21       3.63    67.46     5.68    83.21     5.74    29.53    47.57    83.93    99.49    89.06P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           29   51  +14       1.82    58.37     0.34    80.24     5.79    22.52    23.68    67.11    97.84    77.34P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   50  +16       4.66    71.98     7.84    75.79     5.71    19.69     7.62    36.89    91.22    51.78P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       6.84    80.32     7.81    74.68     6.04    14.95     5.81    29.10    85.88    42.20P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   47  +12       2.42    62.01     2.99    75.99     5.95    18.18     7.74    37.64    90.64    53.42P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   47   +9       4.72    72.33     3.27    74.83     6.15    13.64     5.76    30.02    85.70    44.10P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   47   +4       7.78    83.78     2.60    71.22     5.95     3.51     1.62    12.03    66.32    22.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.17    86.08    11.95    63.76     6.47     1.22     0.15     1.88    22.86     5.26P    0.47R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red            29   39   +1       1.11    56.01     3.41    62.21     5.76     1.05     0.01     0.46    14.17     3.11P    0.55R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   38   -1       2.89    65.28     5.47    59.10     5.67    -4.07     0.01     0.11     5.55     1.10P    1.99R    0.51  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.58    58.39    -1.43    60.56     5.90    -6.85     0.01     0.29     8.74     1.96P    1.37R    0.40  
Plymouth             28   36   -6       1.32    57.63    -1.78    57.87     5.75    -9.25     0.00     0.06     3.52     0.72P    3.77R    1.08  
York                 30   35   -3      -1.51    43.23     2.93    55.00     5.45    -5.49     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.19P    7.96R    2.51  
Cheltenham           28   35   -4      -3.73    32.15    -4.67    58.58     5.98    -5.37     0.00     0.13     5.35     1.36P    3.25R    0.95  
Hartlepool           29   35   -5      -5.22    26.21    -6.10    58.97     5.79    -3.74     0.00     0.08     5.36     1.41P    2.46R    0.75  
Exeter               28   34   -4      -4.19    30.28    -3.87    58.96     6.02    -3.48     0.01     0.13     6.27     1.54P    2.73R    0.85  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.55    17.39    -4.88    57.53     6.11    -1.67     0.00     0.06     4.25     1.09P    4.78R    1.64  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.58    47.76     0.26    54.46     6.03   -11.13     0.00     0.03     1.36     0.29P   12.94R    4.98  
Portsmouth           29   32   -9     -10.37    10.51   -12.99    56.51     5.90    -7.27     0.00     0.02     2.55     0.72P    6.29R    2.18  
Mansfield            29   32   -9      -0.48    48.62     1.53    51.87     5.72   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P   23.11R    9.93  
Bristol_Rovers       28   30   -5      -5.24    25.24    -0.94    52.87     5.88    -7.33     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.15P   17.05R    7.07  
Wycombe              28   29   -6      -7.34    17.50    -3.30    51.95     5.93    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.12P   20.92R    9.19  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.17    25.51    -7.26    51.22     5.87   -16.32     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.08P   27.92R   13.16  
Northampton          27   23  -16      -8.71    11.58    -8.87    45.92     5.99   -20.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    62.43R   44.57  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Halifax 5 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.71    81.44    12.64    94.75     5.63    53.28    76.89    99.97    85.74P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.11    90.87    14.33    88.30     5.72    37.37    19.32    98.95    43.95P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.79    95.66     4.71    74.00     5.42    -1.36     0.12    41.12     4.70P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.35    70.68     6.26    71.43     5.24    12.30     0.01    26.43     4.64P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.41    87.31     4.99    68.54     4.88    -0.93     0.00     9.70     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.88    64.87     0.72    81.94     6.08    25.57     3.52    88.01    29.68P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   48  +11       1.30    56.35     9.34    66.74     5.02    12.24     0.00     6.91     1.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.06    44.21    -7.76    73.01     5.69     9.69     0.07    37.08     8.82P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        29   46   -1       9.85    89.02     5.25    66.69     5.69    -5.42     0.00     7.55     0.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.52    28.68    -5.92    70.11     5.45    11.87     0.01    20.47     5.25P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   44   +7       1.52    58.14     0.76    67.56     5.97     5.07     0.01    11.58     2.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -6.99    18.48    -7.70    68.97     5.56    12.58     0.01    15.79     4.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.57    62.75     6.94    62.94     5.56     2.25     0.00     2.21     0.36P    0.04R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.22    33.52     2.98    69.30     6.07    17.87     0.02    20.01     4.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.40    25.41    -5.78    60.64     5.30    -1.22     0.00     0.61     0.15P    0.11R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.10    66.65     7.10    67.31     6.41     8.73     0.01    12.81     2.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Woking           29   36   -6      -0.91    46.04    -0.67    53.76     5.40   -15.70     0.00     0.03     0.00P    4.17R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     31   36   -7      -3.07    35.33    -1.38    55.08     5.19    -9.45     0.00     0.02     0.00     1.94R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.04    19.10    -6.47    60.56     5.65    16.55     0.00     0.74     0.22P    0.32R    0.00  
Chester          30   28  -19      -1.14    45.65    -0.31    45.25     5.19   -26.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.33R    0.01  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.64    47.53    -3.09    48.32     5.79   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.23R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.18    29.27    -6.61    45.21     5.36   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.90R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.83    11.89   -10.27    41.20     5.29   -32.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.93R    0.06  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.67     0.49   -20.06    18.00     4.54   -77.12     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10