Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 5 February 2014 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 February 2014, Man_City 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          24   55  +26       7.32    86.52     2.56    80.64     4.96    36.03    21.69    49.74    82.57    95.84    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   53  +41       0.67    52.85     7.42    83.64     4.43    61.61    50.94    80.80    95.61    99.34    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   53  +24       6.73    84.35     2.97    81.45     4.82    38.29    25.11    58.95    87.13    97.14    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        24   47  +29       0.49    51.85     6.50    73.61     5.00    40.83     2.14     9.29    27.62    70.23    96.32     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   45  +12       5.22    77.17     2.26    67.55     5.05    16.91     0.07     0.66     3.29    15.26    71.89     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   44   -1       7.17    84.71    -6.18    66.03     5.07     3.13     0.03     0.28     1.70     9.74    57.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -5.33    21.74    -9.47    66.54     4.90    21.87     0.02     0.29     2.06    12.26    67.97     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        24   37   +1       5.67    79.37     4.67    55.06     4.96    -1.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     3.24     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      24   35   +7       2.65    65.06     8.79    54.45     5.02     6.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     2.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      24   27   -7      -0.39    48.68     2.49    44.51     4.87   -10.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.15R    0.20  
Stoke            24   25  -14      -0.98    45.09    -3.18    40.84     4.82   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.22R    1.53  
Swansea          24   24   -6      -5.14    22.68     0.61    42.24     4.90    -7.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.42R    0.64  
Hull             24   24   -7      -0.45    48.69     6.48    38.36     4.83   -13.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.24R    4.09  
Sunderland       24   24  -11      -4.06    28.05    -3.68    39.26     4.60   -18.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.00R    2.55  
Norwich          24   24  -18      -1.56    41.45    -5.25    36.92     4.63   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.21R    8.13  
West_Brom        24   23   -6      -7.00    15.44    -0.45    41.31     4.96    -8.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.59R    1.44  
Crystal_Palace   24   23  -18       2.13    64.72     1.87    34.26     4.46   -30.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.42R   21.03  
West_Ham         24   22   -9      -6.52    16.95    -1.56    37.91     4.81   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.47R    4.94  
Cardiff          24   21  -22      -0.77    46.77    -2.76    35.03     4.73   -30.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.08R   17.21  
Fulham           24   19  -31      -4.69    24.35   -14.10    32.66     4.62   -41.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.19R   38.23  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2014, Nott'm_Forest 3 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       29   66  +24      14.53    97.00     6.10    95.79     5.58    33.90    84.06    95.94    99.99    97.06P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   56  +16       8.49    86.36     2.87    85.52     5.89    23.16     9.49    49.42    97.49    63.03P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   53  +19       8.21    85.81     9.30    81.75     5.91    25.01     3.64    24.65    92.29    41.26P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   52  +17       7.14    81.19     9.26    79.41     5.73    23.44     1.31    14.29    86.43    29.92P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   50  +17       5.43    75.73     7.65    77.72     5.86    21.58     1.04     9.25    78.72    25.35P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         29   47  +14      -1.78    40.81     0.24    76.05     5.72    22.95     0.41     5.50    71.37    25.06P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   43   +9       2.44    62.42     7.67    66.67     5.65     9.59     0.01     0.13    11.97     2.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   42   +2       0.47    52.64    -0.67    65.02     5.64     1.75     0.01     0.03     6.53     1.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        28   40   +5      -2.40    37.80    -1.17    68.31     5.80    10.37     0.01     0.23    18.60     5.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           27   40   +3      -2.39    38.00    -4.84    68.73     6.13     7.27     0.02     0.49    20.75     5.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    28   39   +4       0.15    51.13     3.50    63.67     5.89     3.94     0.00     0.03     5.40     1.12P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   38   +6      -2.73    36.73     4.50    62.24     5.69     7.43     0.00     0.01     3.31     0.68P    0.07R    0.00  
Watford         27   34   +5      -7.40    16.88    -1.82    63.57     6.17    10.23     0.00     0.03     6.14     1.61P    0.09R    0.00  
Huddersfield    28   34   -1      -0.72    47.16     4.62    56.79     5.91    -4.02     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.06P    1.44R    0.07  
Bournemouth     28   34  -13       3.78    70.00     0.63    53.46     5.83   -21.40     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    6.52R    0.47  
Blackpool       29   33  -14      -3.62    32.78    -9.31    54.37     5.52   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    3.72R    0.16  
Sheff_Wed       27   30   +0      -5.25    24.21     2.47    53.97     6.05    -3.02     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    4.60R    0.29  
Birmingham      28   30   -3      -9.19    11.46    -4.09    54.19     5.94    -3.65     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    4.28R    0.20  
Doncaster       29   29  -18      -0.31    49.60    -2.35    46.23     5.41   -27.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.93R    6.46  
Bolton          28   28  -13      -8.58    13.10   -10.01    53.71     6.07   -11.53     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P    6.12R    0.58  
Millwall        28   26  -26      -3.02    35.20   -11.39    44.69     5.57   -35.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.80R   12.08  
Charlton        27   24  -13      -9.05    10.74    -7.48    48.33     5.93   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.41R    3.33  
Barnsley        27   21  -20      -7.19    15.61    -6.29    39.93     5.70   -31.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.17R   36.42  
Yeovil          27   20  -20      -4.04    29.52     0.62    39.45     5.77   -30.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.79R   39.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Bristol_City 1 2 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.78    94.72     8.36    91.95     5.74    32.39    29.63    62.11    99.88    73.84P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.31    70.48     3.85    92.96     5.62    42.09    40.05    72.04    99.95    83.29P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   28   60  +33      11.32    92.79    17.38    91.23     5.95    42.91    29.35    60.48    99.86    72.51P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         28   52  +11      10.08    90.03     5.79    79.50     5.97    15.18     0.72     3.60    85.71    20.94P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.28    89.03    12.07    74.05     5.96    12.30     0.11     0.57    56.94     9.44P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.06    64.92     5.22    71.70     5.75    13.51     0.01     0.15    41.80     9.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.47    42.88    -4.38    75.40     6.11    17.20     0.13     0.99    67.27    19.37P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         29   41   +7      -6.52    20.86    -4.72    68.41     5.84    13.05     0.00     0.03    22.69     6.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       27   39   -3       5.64    76.46     3.33    62.73     6.26    -7.29     0.00     0.00     5.16     0.71P    0.85R    0.04  
Coventry        28   37   +9       3.39    66.34     1.16    65.65     6.12    15.09     0.00     0.02    12.92     3.10P    0.16R    0.00  
MK_Dons         28   36   -1      -6.90    19.38    -7.66    61.93     6.06     0.76     0.00     0.00     4.09     0.91P    0.91R    0.04  
Gillingham      30   35  -12       0.90    55.42    -0.40    53.45     5.52   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   16.70R    1.72  
Bradford        28   34   +4       0.49    53.13    11.21    56.50     5.93     0.57     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.10P    6.30R    0.48  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.76    54.81     4.74    58.89     6.35    -3.11     0.00     0.00     1.87     0.31P    3.78R    0.33  
Oldham          29   33   -8      -0.55    48.09     1.29    53.92     5.72   -11.43     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   14.57R    1.50  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.04    50.56     0.19    57.19     6.47    -8.93     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.14P    7.82R    0.86  
Tranmere        29   31  -18      -3.30    34.27    -9.62    52.29     5.69   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.69R    3.43  
Carlisle        28   30  -17      -0.40    49.20    -3.60    49.42     5.73   -26.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    42.19R    9.35  
Crewe           29   30  -24       0.73    54.98    -6.47    46.69     5.42   -34.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.80R   20.15  
Bristol_City    29   27   -7     -12.98     5.57    -6.75    50.84     5.92    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   29.12R    5.71  
Shrewsbury      29   27  -11      -6.72    19.55    -2.25    47.35     5.58   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   52.91R   14.65  
Notts_County    30   27  -13     -11.52     7.78    -8.62    47.93     5.57   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.54R   12.06  
Sheff_Utd       27   26  -12     -11.77     5.84   -13.09    52.08     6.18   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   24.24R    4.11  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.93    25.72    -7.02    45.78     5.91   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.40R   25.56  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Bury 1 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         29   54  +21       3.70    67.66     5.81    83.19     5.77    29.53    47.65    83.80    99.44    88.98P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           29   51  +14       1.93    58.95     0.44    80.23     5.83    22.51    23.94    67.03    97.87    77.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   50  +16       4.71    72.36     7.91    75.76     5.69    19.69     7.46    36.80    90.92    51.69P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       6.92    80.89     8.00    74.64     6.03    14.89     5.64    29.06    85.85    42.11P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   47  +12       2.43    62.27     3.02    75.97     5.91    18.18     7.85    37.64    90.84    53.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   47   +9       4.68    72.10     3.20    74.92     6.09    13.76     5.55    30.46    86.04    44.17P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   47   +4       7.94    84.26     2.83    71.14     5.98     3.36     1.68    11.81    65.89    22.53P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.12    85.71    11.90    63.88     6.47     1.37     0.18     1.93    23.42     5.47P    0.44R    0.09  
Dag_&_Red            29   39   +1       0.97    55.21     3.24    62.24     5.77     1.03     0.01     0.45    14.15     3.26P    0.61R    0.15  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   38   -1       2.86    64.90     5.41    59.10     5.73    -4.03     0.01     0.12     5.69     1.12P    2.08R    0.57  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.60    58.94    -1.42    60.52     5.93    -6.93     0.02     0.31     8.74     2.00P    1.43R    0.37  
Plymouth             28   36   -6       1.31    57.45    -1.79    57.87     5.78    -9.26     0.00     0.07     3.58     0.68P    3.78R    1.13  
York                 30   35   -3      -1.42    43.79     3.05    54.90     5.42    -5.59     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.22P    7.97R    2.44  
Cheltenham           28   35   -4      -3.75    32.04    -4.71    58.59     5.97    -5.38     0.00     0.14     5.20     1.29P    3.11R    0.91  
Hartlepool           29   35   -5      -5.26    25.86    -6.18    58.95     5.80    -3.75     0.00     0.09     5.31     1.39P    2.51R    0.74  
Exeter               28   34   -4      -4.28    29.70    -3.97    59.05     5.97    -3.34     0.01     0.14     6.14     1.61P    2.67R    0.79  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.76    16.79    -5.19    57.66     6.09    -1.48     0.00     0.07     4.44     1.22P    4.55R    1.51  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.71    47.09     0.11    54.50     6.03   -11.09     0.00     0.01     1.33     0.27P   12.54R    4.91  
Portsmouth           29   32   -9     -10.33    10.47   -12.95    56.47     5.88    -7.36     0.00     0.03     2.42     0.74P    6.23R    2.20  
Mansfield            29   32   -9      -0.44    48.88     1.52    51.84     5.70   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P   23.08R    9.82  
Bristol_Rovers       28   30   -5      -5.27    25.23    -0.95    52.82     5.84    -7.36     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.16P   16.99R    7.01  
Wycombe              28   29   -6      -7.34    17.51    -3.32    51.98     5.92    -8.31     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.10P   21.41R    9.51  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.11    25.69    -7.15    51.21     5.85   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   27.75R   13.01  
Northampton          27   23  -16      -8.68    11.99    -8.80    45.87     6.03   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   62.87R   44.83  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Halifax 5 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.74    81.68    12.67    94.75     5.64    53.27    77.33    99.96    85.99P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.24    91.23    14.52    88.20     5.71    37.23    18.70    98.85    42.81P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.77    95.47     4.72    73.96     5.40    -1.40     0.10    40.55     4.59P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.25    69.91     6.06    71.50     5.28    12.36     0.01    26.88     4.83P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.39    87.38     4.98    68.57     4.91    -0.92     0.00     9.78     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.96    65.30     0.85    81.83     6.18    25.42     3.69    87.34    29.63P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   48  +11       1.25    55.93     9.29    66.79     4.98    12.32     0.00     6.97     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.09    44.37    -7.77    73.00     5.69     9.70     0.07    37.09     8.85P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        29   46   -1       9.77    88.89     5.04    66.79     5.68    -5.23     0.00     7.71     0.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.59    28.55    -6.07    70.15     5.52    11.91     0.01    20.77     5.60P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   44   +7       1.55    58.41     0.80    67.59     5.94     5.10     0.02    11.55     2.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -6.95    18.69    -7.60    69.05     5.61    12.68     0.01    16.13     4.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.65    63.11     7.09    62.82     5.53     2.12     0.00     2.00     0.33P    0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.30    32.99     2.85    69.38     6.10    18.04     0.03    20.43     4.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.37    25.39    -5.73    60.58     5.31    -1.29     0.00     0.58     0.10P    0.09R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.05    66.78     6.98    67.30     6.36     8.74     0.02    12.63     2.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           29   36   -6      -0.82    46.36    -0.49    53.77     5.41   -15.70     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.11R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     31   36   -7      -3.08    35.51    -1.44    55.08     5.16    -9.48     0.00     0.02     0.00     1.76R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.22    18.58    -6.72    60.65     5.66    16.69     0.00     0.74     0.22P    0.29R    0.00  
Chester          30   28  -19      -1.12    45.79    -0.29    45.24     5.18   -26.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.26R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.57    47.90    -3.02    48.26     5.75   -25.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.35R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.27    28.88    -6.70    45.26     5.38   -29.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.62R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.74    12.01   -10.09    41.13     5.23   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.46R    0.05  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.65     0.55   -19.91    17.94     4.56   -77.22     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10