Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 4 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 February 2014, Man_City 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          24   55  +26       7.37    86.57     2.60    80.62     4.93    36.02    21.34    49.41    82.26    95.76    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   53  +41       0.67    52.65     7.38    83.65     4.40    61.70    51.13    80.76    95.85    99.37    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   53  +24       6.72    84.17     2.99    81.42     4.81    38.23    25.07    58.90    86.57    97.01    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        24   47  +29       0.44    51.72     6.36    73.73     5.02    41.03     2.32     9.73    28.14    70.87    96.55     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   45  +12       5.25    77.60     2.25    67.60     5.06    16.94     0.09     0.68     3.31    15.37    72.12     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   44   -1       6.94    83.88    -6.50    66.12     5.08     3.25     0.03     0.29     1.84     9.77    58.23     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -5.23    21.88    -9.20    66.52     4.88    21.84     0.01     0.24     2.02    11.69    67.27     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        24   37   +1       5.74    79.70     4.75    55.05     4.93    -1.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     3.14     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      24   35   +7       2.59    65.18     8.64    54.47     5.02     6.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.96     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      24   27   -7      -0.31    49.36     2.67    44.46     4.92   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.33R    0.26  
Stoke            24   25  -14      -1.00    45.12    -3.21    40.81     4.84   -19.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.40R    1.50  
Swansea          24   24   -6      -5.22    22.48     0.54    42.28     4.92    -7.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.56R    0.72  
Hull             24   24   -7      -0.34    48.98     6.71    38.29     4.81   -14.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.24R    4.42  
Sunderland       24   24  -11      -4.04    28.54    -3.67    39.16     4.60   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.39R    2.79  
Norwich          24   24  -18      -1.64    41.19    -5.24    36.94     4.64   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.69R    8.10  
West_Brom        24   23   -6      -7.09    15.09    -0.62    41.43     4.95    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.29R    1.37  
Crystal_Palace   24   23  -18       2.18    65.31     1.97    34.19     4.43   -30.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.78R   21.12  
West_Ham         24   22   -9      -6.49    17.19    -1.53    37.84     4.77   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.52R    4.91  
Cardiff          24   21  -22      -0.70    47.26    -2.73    35.03     4.70   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.97R   17.10  
Fulham           24   19  -31      -4.71    24.29   -14.17    32.70     4.62   -41.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.83R   37.70  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2014, Nott'm_Forest 3 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       29   66  +24      14.55    96.99     6.16    95.79     5.59    33.91    84.32    96.12    99.99    97.17P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   56  +16       8.74    87.06     3.19    85.37     5.86    22.98     9.12    48.27    97.51    62.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   53  +19       8.05    85.21     9.04    81.83     5.92    25.12     3.80    25.48    92.43    41.92P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   52  +17       7.12    80.98     9.18    79.41     5.72    23.40     1.40    14.26    86.43    29.81P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   50  +17       5.51    76.17     7.75    77.67     5.88    21.50     0.94     9.49    78.35    25.86P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         29   47  +14      -1.65    41.81     0.46    75.96     5.77    22.84     0.38     5.49    70.55    24.81P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   43   +9       2.42    62.11     7.62    66.69     5.68     9.62     0.00     0.10    12.26     2.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   42   +2       0.48    52.66    -0.66    65.08     5.69     1.77     0.00     0.04     6.88     1.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton        28   40   +5      -2.29    38.57    -1.01    68.30     5.80    10.36     0.01     0.22    18.30     5.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           27   40   +3      -2.30    38.43    -4.73    68.70     6.10     7.25     0.02     0.43    20.92     5.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    28   39   +4       0.02    50.53     3.33    63.68     5.88     3.96     0.00     0.02     5.51     1.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   38   +6      -2.79    36.65     4.38    62.33     5.73     7.53     0.00     0.01     3.56     0.77P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         27   34   +5      -7.46    16.96    -1.88    63.63     6.20    10.31     0.00     0.05     6.36     1.63P    0.11R    0.00  
Huddersfield    28   34   -1      -0.74    47.01     4.55    56.83     5.92    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    1.53R    0.08  
Bournemouth     28   34  -13       3.79    70.02     0.66    53.46     5.78   -21.41     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    6.25R    0.39  
Blackpool       29   33  -14      -3.72    32.38    -9.44    54.39     5.55   -16.87     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    3.66R    0.18  
Sheff_Wed       27   30   +0      -5.37    23.88     2.29    54.02     6.05    -2.94     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    4.51R    0.27  
Birmingham      28   30   -3      -9.27    11.18    -4.28    54.24     5.94    -3.55     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    4.13R    0.23  
Doncaster       29   29  -18      -0.45    48.78    -2.62    46.31     5.43   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.70R    6.17  
Bolton          28   28  -13      -8.48    13.32    -9.86    53.61     6.01   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.08R    0.48  
Millwall        28   26  -26      -3.09    34.60   -11.46    44.66     5.57   -35.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.18R   11.76  
Charlton        27   24  -13      -9.04    10.90    -7.47    48.35     5.97   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.49R    3.40  
Barnsley        27   21  -20      -7.15    16.00    -6.21    39.90     5.72   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.03R   36.48  
Yeovil          27   20  -20      -3.84    30.34     1.01    39.35     5.75   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.22R   40.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Bristol_City 1 2 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.78    94.86     8.37    91.98     5.74    32.43    30.21    62.32    99.91    73.68P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.37    70.53     4.00    92.88     5.66    41.97    39.37    71.75    99.95    83.14P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   28   60  +33      11.23    92.54    17.24    91.26     5.99    42.97    29.49    60.77    99.84    72.75P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         28   52  +11      10.09    90.10     5.74    79.48     5.98    15.17     0.70     3.56    85.49    21.16P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.45    89.41    12.40    73.99     5.89    12.18     0.07     0.47    56.51     9.27P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       2.90    64.18     5.05    71.81     5.78    13.64     0.02     0.16    42.68     9.09P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.35    43.23    -4.17    75.34     6.08    17.09     0.14     0.92    67.05    19.46P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         29   41   +7      -6.47    20.98    -4.62    68.38     5.87    13.02     0.00     0.03    22.69     6.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       27   39   -3       5.37    75.70     2.81    62.95     6.24    -6.90     0.00     0.00     5.46     0.76P    0.79R    0.03  
Coventry        28   37   +9       3.52    66.86     1.33    65.60     6.10    14.96     0.00     0.01    12.77     2.97P    0.19R    0.01  
MK_Dons         28   36   -1      -6.84    19.69    -7.55    61.89     6.03     0.68     0.00     0.00     3.99     0.89P    0.87R    0.02  
Gillingham      30   35  -12       0.98    55.77    -0.30    53.34     5.49   -18.04     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   16.86R    1.80  
Bradford        28   34   +4       0.52    53.33    11.29    56.46     5.95     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.12P    6.69R    0.55  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.72    54.34     4.65    58.94     6.27    -3.01     0.00     0.00     1.79     0.34P    3.66R    0.30  
Oldham          29   33   -8      -0.65    47.54     1.10    54.03     5.72   -11.29     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   14.23R    1.43  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.16    49.90     0.02    57.15     6.46    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.16P    7.81R    0.79  
Tranmere        29   31  -18      -3.25    34.78    -9.53    52.18     5.70   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   24.18R    3.63  
Carlisle        28   30  -17      -0.45    48.82    -3.66    49.50     5.77   -25.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    41.82R    9.24  
Crewe           29   30  -24       0.70    54.96    -6.54    46.71     5.46   -34.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.73R   20.31  
Bristol_City    29   27   -7     -12.88     5.89    -6.62    50.80     5.93    -6.53     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   29.05R    5.84  
Shrewsbury      29   27  -11      -6.74    19.24    -2.27    47.36     5.61   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.15R   14.86  
Notts_County    30   27  -13     -11.59     7.60    -8.75    47.99     5.52   -14.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.94R   11.68  
Sheff_Utd       27   26  -12     -11.66     6.15   -12.96    51.95     6.15   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   24.72R    4.27  
Stevenage       27   25  -18      -4.93    25.86    -7.03    45.83     5.90   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.30R   25.26  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Bury 1 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         29   54  +21       3.84    68.22     6.03    83.09     5.74    29.38    46.85    83.50    99.43    88.78P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           29   51  +14       1.87    58.78     0.41    80.21     5.84    22.50    24.06    66.82    97.83    77.05P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   50  +16       4.56    71.61     7.73    75.87     5.68    19.81     7.80    37.20    91.34    52.31P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       6.87    80.37     7.90    74.69     6.04    14.99     5.83    29.11    86.03    42.49P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   47  +12       2.33    61.57     2.88    76.06     5.93    18.28     7.93    38.12    90.93    53.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   47   +9       4.68    72.11     3.21    74.86     6.10    13.66     5.58    30.01    85.71    43.73P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   47   +4       7.81    83.94     2.59    71.25     5.91     3.57     1.72    11.99    67.03    22.86P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.19    86.03    12.04    63.78     6.46     1.26     0.19     1.90    22.95     5.30P    0.54R    0.13  
Dag_&_Red            29   39   +1       1.05    55.84     3.35    62.20     5.76     1.00     0.02     0.43    14.01     3.21P    0.56R    0.13  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   38   -1       2.90    64.72     5.47    59.08     5.70    -4.10     0.00     0.10     5.72     1.03P    2.11R    0.57  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.57    58.51    -1.43    60.51     5.86    -6.94     0.01     0.27     8.51     1.78P    1.40R    0.38  
Plymouth             28   36   -6       1.33    57.77    -1.76    57.81     5.75    -9.31     0.00     0.06     3.40     0.69P    3.84R    1.08  
York                 30   35   -3      -1.56    43.04     2.86    54.96     5.40    -5.53     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.21P    7.77R    2.40  
Cheltenham           28   35   -4      -3.55    33.07    -4.49    58.55     5.91    -5.47     0.00     0.12     5.04     1.28P    3.19R    0.87  
Hartlepool           29   35   -5      -5.21    26.36    -6.10    58.94     5.80    -3.77     0.00     0.08     5.29     1.31P    2.55R    0.74  
Exeter               28   34   -4      -4.09    30.71    -3.75    58.92     5.98    -3.51     0.01     0.15     5.84     1.49P    2.84R    0.89  
Bury                 28   32   -3      -7.44    17.79    -4.70    57.47     6.11    -1.78     0.00     0.08     4.18     1.12P    4.98R    1.72  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.78    46.77     0.01    54.54     6.02   -11.00     0.00     0.02     1.41     0.26P   12.61R    4.84  
Portsmouth           29   32   -9     -10.49    10.35   -13.17    56.59     5.90    -7.16     0.00     0.02     2.57     0.79P    5.97R    2.05  
Mansfield            29   32   -9      -0.32    49.45     1.70    51.81     5.67   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   23.29R   10.05  
Bristol_Rovers       28   30   -5      -5.24    25.33    -0.97    52.82     5.83    -7.36     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.15P   16.96R    7.08  
Wycombe              28   29   -6      -7.42    17.37    -3.44    51.99     5.92    -8.29     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.12P   21.31R    9.35  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.27    24.87    -7.41    51.30     5.87   -16.19     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07P   27.60R   12.95  
Northampton          27   23  -16      -8.83    11.51    -8.97    45.95     6.00   -20.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   62.49R   44.77  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2014, Halifax 5 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.75    81.44    12.71    94.75     5.63    53.26    77.49    99.98    86.10P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.30    91.11    14.61    88.14     5.76    37.15    18.72    98.81    42.94P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.75    95.34     4.67    73.99     5.42    -1.41     0.11    41.01     4.85P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.32    70.21     6.20    71.41     5.26    12.23     0.02    26.50     4.62P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         32   50   +0       9.32    87.47     4.88    68.58     4.89    -0.89     0.00     9.78     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       3.06    66.00     1.02    81.70     6.17    25.21     3.52    86.95    29.40P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   48  +11       1.15    55.66     9.11    66.87     4.98    12.44     0.00     6.91     1.11P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.18    44.04    -7.96    73.06     5.65     9.77     0.08    37.32     9.11P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        29   46   -1       9.73    88.61     5.06    66.78     5.71    -5.26     0.00     7.70     1.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.58    28.68    -6.03    70.14     5.47    11.91     0.00    20.66     5.51P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   44   +7       1.59    58.33     0.82    67.56     5.94     5.11     0.01    11.56     2.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -7.04    18.11    -7.71    69.07     5.60    12.69     0.01    16.38     4.39P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.65    63.30     7.10    62.85     5.54     2.09     0.00     2.13     0.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.20    33.60     3.05    69.30     6.11    17.85     0.02    20.16     4.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.32    25.80    -5.71    60.63     5.34    -1.24     0.00     0.62     0.13P    0.09R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.17    67.16     7.16    67.27     6.44     8.67     0.01    12.74     2.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Woking           29   36   -6      -0.95    45.60    -0.71    53.78     5.40   -15.61     0.00     0.03     0.01P    4.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     31   36   -7      -2.93    36.31    -1.17    55.01     5.17    -9.55     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.89R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.20    18.57    -6.71    60.67     5.64    16.74     0.00     0.75     0.25P    0.26R    0.00  
Chester          30   28  -19      -1.28    44.97    -0.44    45.26     5.16   -26.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.26R    0.01  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.61    47.70    -3.09    48.34     5.75   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.07R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.16    29.39    -6.62    45.23     5.38   -29.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.19R    0.01  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.82    11.93   -10.24    41.19     5.27   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.16R    0.07  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.65     0.49   -20.01    17.99     4.55   -77.10     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.92  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10