Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 3 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 February 2014, Man_City 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          24   55  +26       7.36    86.65     2.61    80.62     4.95    36.02    21.61    49.98    82.50    95.70    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   53  +41       0.63    52.32     7.29    83.66     4.42    61.74    51.17    80.68    95.63    99.29    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   53  +24       6.64    83.92     2.79    81.40     4.84    38.24    24.81    58.46    86.57    97.16    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        24   47  +29       0.38    51.42     6.31    73.73     5.00    41.02     2.30     9.74    28.28    70.88    96.47     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   45  +12       5.21    77.22     2.22    67.63     5.01    16.99     0.07     0.60     3.25    15.27    72.55     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   44   -1       6.99    84.02    -6.45    66.09     5.04     3.21     0.02     0.25     1.69     9.67    57.72     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -5.18    22.38    -9.16    66.47     4.91    21.75     0.02     0.28     2.08    11.85    67.27     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        24   37   +1       5.78    79.72     4.76    55.00     4.95    -1.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     3.20     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      24   35   +7       2.61    65.11     8.70    54.45     5.03     6.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     3.09     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      24   27   -7      -0.28    49.18     2.72    44.49     4.90   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.18R    0.20  
Stoke            24   25  -14      -0.87    45.74    -3.05    40.77     4.80   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.50R    1.51  
Swansea          24   24   -6      -5.34    22.04     0.36    42.32     4.92    -7.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.28R    0.64  
Hull             24   24   -7      -0.45    48.61     6.53    38.39     4.79   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.78R    3.96  
Sunderland       24   24  -11      -4.03    28.58    -3.61    39.13     4.59   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.44R    2.76  
Norwich          24   24  -18      -1.66    40.97    -5.35    37.02     4.65   -28.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.97R    7.80  
West_Brom        24   23   -6      -7.04    15.34    -0.56    41.41     4.98    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.45R    1.40  
Crystal_Palace   24   23  -18       2.14    64.75     1.90    34.23     4.45   -30.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.67R   20.81  
West_Ham         24   22   -9      -6.45    17.11    -1.43    37.82     4.80   -14.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.08R    5.02  
Cardiff          24   21  -22      -0.74    47.08    -2.76    35.04     4.72   -30.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.84R   17.23  
Fulham           24   19  -31      -4.51    25.14   -13.84    32.58     4.62   -41.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.80R   38.66  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2014, Nott'm_Forest 3 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       29   66  +24      14.55    97.08     6.16    95.76     5.59    33.85    83.79    95.89    99.99    96.97P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   56  +16       8.73    86.85     3.14    85.44     5.88    23.05     9.71    48.52    97.41    62.68P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   53  +19       8.05    85.20     9.04    81.86     5.95    25.16     3.82    25.38    92.46    41.61P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   52  +17       6.94    80.46     8.94    79.48     5.73    23.53     1.37    14.65    86.75    30.44P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   50  +17       5.64    76.67     7.92    77.62     5.91    21.42     0.89     9.07    77.96    24.91P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         29   47  +14      -1.75    41.19     0.32    75.97     5.71    22.86     0.38     5.57    71.05    24.90P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   43   +9       2.47    62.53     7.69    66.61     5.61     9.48     0.01     0.12    11.82     2.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   42   +2       0.48    52.81    -0.65    65.08     5.68     1.82     0.00     0.04     6.81     1.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton        28   40   +5      -2.25    38.51    -0.96    68.27     5.80    10.28     0.01     0.22    18.50     5.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           27   40   +3      -2.31    38.23    -4.69    68.66     6.17     7.24     0.03     0.44    21.20     5.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   39   +4       0.11    50.87     3.47    63.66     5.90     3.91     0.00     0.04     5.44     1.06P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   38   +6      -2.82    36.53     4.43    62.26     5.71     7.42     0.00     0.01     3.49     0.79P    0.06R    0.00  
Watford         27   34   +5      -7.42    16.72    -1.78    63.49     6.20    10.15     0.00     0.05     6.16     1.62P    0.10R    0.00  
Huddersfield    28   34   -1      -0.79    46.74     4.50    56.88     5.88    -3.94     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    1.45R    0.06  
Bournemouth     28   34  -13       3.61    69.05     0.35    53.56     5.85   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    6.45R    0.39  
Blackpool       29   33  -14      -3.61    33.11    -9.29    54.42     5.55   -16.86     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    3.57R    0.21  
Sheff_Wed       27   30   +0      -5.41    23.85     2.27    54.04     6.04    -2.94     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    4.44R    0.27  
Birmingham      28   30   -3      -9.12    11.65    -4.03    54.14     5.94    -3.73     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.22R    0.25  
Doncaster       29   29  -18      -0.37    49.29    -2.50    46.27     5.38   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.17R    6.19  
Bolton          28   28  -13      -8.45    13.50    -9.83    53.67     6.04   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P    6.00R    0.56  
Millwall        28   26  -26      -2.98    35.15   -11.34    44.61     5.52   -35.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.60R   11.90  
Charlton        27   24  -13      -9.17    10.53    -7.69    48.49     5.96   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.68R    3.35  
Barnsley        27   21  -20      -7.22    15.64    -6.31    39.96     5.67   -31.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.29R   36.23  
Yeovil          27   20  -20      -3.96    29.70     0.86    39.45     5.75   -30.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.89R   40.58  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Bristol_City 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.83    94.96     8.43    92.06     5.73    32.53    30.17    62.51    99.91    74.05P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.49    70.82     4.12    92.91     5.68    42.00    39.21    71.27    99.95    82.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   28   60  +33      11.10    92.24    16.97    91.36     5.95    43.09    29.79    61.03    99.87    72.93P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         28   52  +11      10.10    89.96     5.83    79.48     5.98    15.14     0.65     3.45    86.26    20.76P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.35    89.09    12.16    74.03     5.90    12.24     0.06     0.52    57.72     9.58P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.03    64.66     5.20    71.64     5.75    13.42     0.01     0.15    42.24     9.28P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.45    42.74    -4.34    75.38     6.11    17.13     0.11     1.00    68.02    19.55P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         29   41   +7      -6.41    21.21    -4.47    68.34     5.86    12.93     0.00     0.04    23.03     6.39P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale       27   39   -3       5.44    75.88     2.89    63.03     6.24    -6.76     0.00     0.01     5.69     0.86P    0.79R    0.02  
MK_Dons         28   36   -1      -6.85    19.49    -7.55    61.87     6.09     0.64     0.00     0.00     4.26     0.95P    0.95R    0.05  
Gillingham      29   35  -10       1.60    58.67     0.41    55.02     5.72   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   11.62R    0.89  
Coventry        27   34   +8       2.18    60.74     0.79    63.83     6.34    13.73     0.00     0.00     8.87     2.17P    0.62R    0.02  
Bradford        28   34   +4       0.40    52.91    11.04    56.51     5.96     0.59     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.10P    6.50R    0.46  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.71    54.63     4.69    59.01     6.32    -2.96     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.34P    3.62R    0.24  
Oldham          29   33   -8      -0.83    46.66     0.89    54.10     5.76   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   14.03R    1.23  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.18    49.82    -0.03    57.10     6.44    -9.01     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.16P    7.62R    0.70  
Tranmere        29   31  -18      -3.28    34.29    -9.59    52.19     5.68   -21.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   24.35R    2.96  
Carlisle        28   30  -17      -0.45    48.76    -3.66    49.51     5.75   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   41.63R    7.92  
Crewe           29   30  -24       0.83    55.36    -6.31    46.61     5.43   -34.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.55R   18.14  
Bristol_City    28   27   -6     -11.95     6.92    -6.35    52.50     6.17    -5.03     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   21.17R    3.33  
Shrewsbury      29   27  -11      -6.63    19.84    -2.04    47.29     5.61   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.56R   13.47  
Notts_County    30   27  -13     -11.51     7.78    -8.58    47.94     5.59   -14.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.51R   10.29  
Sheff_Utd       27   26  -12     -11.50     6.37   -12.71    51.89     6.15   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   24.96R    3.67  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.70    21.70    -7.79    43.75     6.07   -28.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.49R   36.63  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Burton_Albion 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         29   54  +21       3.71    67.87     5.82    83.20     5.74    29.51    46.86    83.66    99.50    89.08P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           29   51  +14       1.91    58.89     0.45    80.22     5.82    22.50    23.89    66.51    97.71    76.80P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   49  +16       5.10    74.36     7.95    76.10     5.92    19.66     8.65    39.02    91.08    53.20P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       6.92    80.61     7.96    74.63     6.08    14.88     5.57    28.72    85.59    41.67P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   47  +12       2.43    62.30     3.05    75.93     5.93    18.13     7.66    37.09    90.39    53.23P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   47   +9       4.75    72.22     3.32    74.82     6.08    13.60     5.44    29.54    85.67    43.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   47   +4       7.88    84.00     2.67    71.25     5.92     3.57     1.73    12.03    66.55    22.99P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.14    85.96    11.91    63.88     6.47     1.39     0.15     2.03    23.26     5.69P    0.46R    0.13  
Dag_&_Red            29   39   +1       1.05    55.70     3.36    62.20     5.74     0.99     0.02     0.38    13.94     3.06P    0.60R    0.14  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   38   -1       2.83    64.75     5.41    59.04     5.70    -4.13     0.01     0.10     5.48     1.00P    2.03R    0.57  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.35    57.21    -1.75    60.72     5.89    -6.66     0.01     0.34     9.08     2.07P    1.25R    0.34  
Plymouth             28   36   -6       1.14    56.79    -2.00    57.92     5.76    -9.14     0.00     0.05     3.37     0.65P    3.69R    1.06  
York                 30   35   -3      -1.54    43.15     2.91    54.95     5.44    -5.55     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.23P    7.84R    2.34  
Cheltenham           28   35   -4      -3.69    32.02    -4.62    58.61     5.96    -5.36     0.00     0.11     5.18     1.27P    3.06R    0.91  
Hartlepool           29   35   -5      -5.12    26.61    -5.99    58.90     5.75    -3.80     0.00     0.09     5.07     1.30P    2.56R    0.77  
Exeter               28   34   -4      -4.22    30.04    -3.90    58.99     5.97    -3.45     0.00     0.14     5.96     1.49P    2.79R    0.84  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.71    47.19     0.07    54.49     6.05   -11.07     0.00     0.02     1.38     0.26P   12.66R    5.01  
Portsmouth           29   32   -9     -10.37    10.32   -13.03    56.49     5.89    -7.32     0.00     0.03     2.45     0.65P    6.19R    2.06  
Mansfield            29   32   -9      -0.44    48.70     1.57    51.82     5.71   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P   23.44R   10.16  
Bury                 27   31   -3      -7.29    17.91    -5.01    57.92     6.33    -1.62     0.00     0.12     5.43     1.48P    4.71R    1.62  
Bristol_Rovers       28   30   -5      -5.17    25.36    -0.84    52.81     5.86    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.15P   17.08R    7.08  
Wycombe              28   29   -6      -7.22    17.49    -3.18    51.91     5.92    -8.41     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.10P   21.46R    9.51  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.10    25.80    -7.15    51.19     5.87   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.07P   28.15R   13.33  
Northampton          27   23  -16      -8.81    11.65    -8.97    45.98     6.00   -20.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   62.03R   44.13  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 February 2014, Woking 3 0 Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.74    81.83    12.81    94.71     5.61    53.18    77.41    99.94    85.87P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.18    91.05    14.44    88.15     5.74    37.19    18.74    98.88    42.86P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.59    95.40     4.37    74.17     5.44    -1.12     0.14    42.66     4.82P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.14    69.32     5.91    71.45     5.24    12.32     0.02    26.79     4.62P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.96    65.21     0.80    81.84     6.10    25.43     3.55    87.75    29.94P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         31   47   -1       8.06    84.06     4.52    66.34     5.10    -2.78     0.00     5.10     0.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.05    44.54    -7.73    72.95     5.64     9.65     0.04    36.73     8.83P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        28   46   +3       9.50    88.78     6.24    68.37     5.92    -0.88     0.02    13.45     1.99P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          32   45   +7       1.50    57.61     8.44    65.13     5.21     8.20     0.00     4.26     0.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.55    28.62    -6.02    70.23     5.49    12.03     0.01    21.42     5.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -7.02    18.45    -7.71    68.97     5.64    12.53     0.01    16.26     4.35P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.58    62.67     6.99    62.93     5.54     2.19     0.00     2.11     0.32P    0.06R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.74    53.94     1.04    66.70     6.14     5.26     0.00     9.95     1.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.19    33.51     3.01    69.34     6.12    17.88     0.03    20.55     4.84P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         30   39   -1      -5.39    25.40    -5.78    60.63     5.33    -1.24     0.00     0.60     0.12P    0.12R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.14    67.14     7.11    67.18     6.38     8.54     0.02    12.52     2.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           29   36   -6      -0.82    46.46    -0.57    53.60     5.41   -15.92     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.59R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     30   36   -6      -1.77    41.66    -0.63    56.86     5.40    -7.83     0.00     0.14     0.01P    1.09R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.27    18.53    -6.88    60.72     5.64    16.74     0.00     0.86     0.26P    0.34R    0.00  
Chester          29   28  -18      -0.41    49.11    -0.55    45.83     5.33   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.59R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.58    47.62    -2.98    48.27     5.75   -25.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.38R    0.01  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.21    29.38    -6.63    45.21     5.37   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.26R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.80    11.91   -10.29    41.24     5.31   -31.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.52R    0.04  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.57     0.50   -19.92    17.94     4.53   -77.16     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.96  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10