Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 2 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          24   55  +26       7.34    86.30     2.57    80.62     4.96    36.02    17.28    54.82    83.98    95.81    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   53  +42       2.05    61.49     7.91    85.77     4.62    64.22    69.60    90.74    98.12    99.72    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   50  +23       5.13    78.10     1.85    79.11     5.07    36.18    11.38    41.97    76.09    93.12    99.60     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        24   47  +29       0.53    52.40     6.52    73.69     5.00    40.95     1.64    10.97    32.61    71.37    96.47     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   45  +12       5.06    76.68     2.07    67.61     5.04    16.98     0.05     0.83     4.23    16.56    72.51     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   44   -1       7.11    84.39    -6.24    66.14     5.03     3.26     0.02     0.32     2.32    10.69    58.29     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -5.19    22.28    -9.18    66.43     4.92    21.71     0.03     0.35     2.62    12.51    67.18     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        24   37   +1       5.65    79.14     4.69    55.06     4.94    -1.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13     3.24     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      24   35   +7       2.62    65.17     8.79    54.37     5.05     6.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     2.89     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      24   27   -7      -0.21    49.95     2.84    44.42     4.86   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.38R    0.27  
Stoke            24   25  -14      -0.98    45.25    -3.18    40.83     4.82   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.44R    1.53  
Swansea          24   24   -6      -5.25    22.41     0.56    42.33     4.92    -7.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.30R    0.70  
Hull             24   24   -7      -0.46    48.68     6.50    38.39     4.81   -13.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.65R    4.02  
Sunderland       24   24  -11      -3.98    28.69    -3.51    39.20     4.59   -18.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.31R    2.66  
Norwich          24   24  -18      -1.55    41.73    -5.11    36.93     4.63   -28.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.09R    8.07  
West_Brom        24   23   -6      -7.10    15.05    -0.59    41.42     4.96    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.29R    1.36  
Crystal_Palace   24   23  -18       1.97    63.76     1.72    34.27     4.49   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.25R   20.69  
West_Ham         24   22   -9      -6.56    16.77    -1.56    37.90     4.78   -14.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.55R    4.83  
Cardiff          24   21  -22      -0.74    46.95    -2.63    35.03     4.72   -30.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.17R   17.39  
Fulham           24   19  -31      -4.63    24.48   -14.03    32.63     4.62   -41.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.58R   38.47  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2014, Nott'm_Forest 3 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       29   66  +24      14.55    97.16     6.12    95.80     5.61    33.92    84.17    96.02    99.99    97.10P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   56  +16       8.62    86.81     3.07    85.46     5.85    23.06     9.48    49.22    97.59    62.68P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   53  +19       7.98    85.05     8.98    81.87     5.95    25.20     3.71    25.08    92.34    41.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   52  +17       7.11    81.20     9.19    79.46     5.71    23.47     1.27    14.43    86.71    30.29P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   50  +17       5.69    76.67     8.05    77.59     5.89    21.36     0.94     8.95    77.87    24.83P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         29   47  +14      -1.69    41.62     0.40    75.96     5.74    22.82     0.40     5.40    70.79    24.89P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   43   +9       2.38    62.01     7.55    66.72     5.65     9.64     0.01     0.10    12.35     2.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   42   +2       0.50    52.73    -0.59    65.04     5.65     1.72     0.00     0.05     6.90     1.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton        28   40   +5      -2.31    38.38    -1.06    68.34     5.79    10.37     0.01     0.26    18.65     5.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           27   40   +3      -2.43    37.86    -4.89    68.72     6.11     7.32     0.01     0.39    20.86     5.79P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   39   +4       0.11    50.77     3.46    63.68     5.92     3.94     0.00     0.04     5.57     1.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   38   +6      -2.64    36.98     4.58    62.24     5.69     7.40     0.00     0.01     3.21     0.66P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         27   34   +5      -7.48    16.66    -1.93    63.59     6.19    10.30     0.00     0.05     6.23     1.62P    0.11R    0.00  
Huddersfield    28   34   -1      -0.79    46.55     4.49    56.88     5.88    -3.90     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.09P    1.46R    0.05  
Bournemouth     28   34  -13       3.83    69.97     0.72    53.38     5.81   -21.50     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.51R    0.36  
Blackpool       29   33  -14      -3.75    32.23    -9.50    54.45     5.56   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    3.57R    0.19  
Sheff_Wed       27   30   +0      -5.28    24.15     2.39    54.03     6.03    -2.95     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    4.33R    0.29  
Birmingham      28   30   -3      -9.29    11.17    -4.29    54.23     5.94    -3.58     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    4.13R    0.20  
Doncaster       29   29  -18      -0.37    49.15    -2.45    46.19     5.37   -27.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.25R    6.59  
Bolton          28   28  -13      -8.45    13.29    -9.84    53.63     6.02   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.00R    0.60  
Millwall        28   26  -26      -3.05    34.75   -11.45    44.66     5.51   -35.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.14R   11.59  
Charlton        27   24  -13      -9.10    10.69    -7.53    48.34     5.96   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.16R    3.37  
Barnsley        27   21  -20      -7.12    16.01    -6.21    39.85     5.67   -31.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.44R   36.83  
Yeovil          27   20  -20      -4.02    29.56     0.75    39.45     5.76   -30.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.79R   39.92  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Bristol_City 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.82    94.79     8.45    92.01     5.71    32.47    29.94    62.73    99.93    74.13P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.36    70.36     3.89    92.99     5.62    42.12    39.86    71.92    99.94    83.19P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   28   60  +33      11.13    92.43    17.14    91.26     5.95    42.99    29.35    60.33    99.88    72.43P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         28   52  +11      10.07    89.96     5.71    79.54     5.98    15.25     0.66     3.46    86.36    21.02P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.40    89.33    12.26    73.98     5.89    12.14     0.05     0.46    57.31     9.45P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.23    65.81     5.49    71.62     5.77    13.39     0.01     0.13    42.20     9.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.38    43.12    -4.21    75.32     6.10    17.04     0.13     0.94    67.36    19.37P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         29   41   +7      -6.55    20.67    -4.76    68.46     5.88    13.11     0.00     0.03    23.69     6.47P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale       27   39   -3       5.53    76.12     3.08    62.92     6.26    -6.99     0.00     0.00     5.72     0.78P    0.91R    0.04  
MK_Dons         28   36   -1      -6.99    19.13    -7.73    62.01     6.05     0.87     0.00     0.00     4.54     1.05P    0.91R    0.04  
Gillingham      29   35  -10       1.53    58.34     0.31    55.04     5.74   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.01P   11.41R    0.98  
Coventry        27   34   +8       2.09    60.08     0.61    63.88     6.34    13.79     0.00     0.00     9.10     2.24P    0.55R    0.02  
Bradford        28   34   +4       0.63    53.98    11.44    56.41     5.97     0.47     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.10P    6.82R    0.50  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.73    54.52     4.75    58.91     6.29    -3.05     0.00     0.00     1.86     0.31P    3.89R    0.23  
Oldham          29   33   -8      -0.60    47.81     1.25    53.97     5.71   -11.43     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   14.56R    1.17  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.01    50.75     0.25    57.04     6.44    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.14P    7.95R    0.78  
Tranmere        29   31  -18      -3.21    34.79    -9.48    52.14     5.66   -21.32     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.58R    2.98  
Carlisle        28   30  -17      -0.44    48.62    -3.66    49.50     5.76   -25.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   42.01R    8.00  
Crewe           29   30  -24       0.71    54.78    -6.48    46.68     5.45   -34.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.96R   18.33  
Bristol_City    28   27   -6     -12.10     6.42    -6.56    52.59     6.17    -4.86     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   20.70R    3.13  
Shrewsbury      29   27  -11      -6.64    19.84    -2.10    47.30     5.62   -15.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.40R   13.65  
Notts_County    30   27  -13     -11.51     7.64    -8.64    47.94     5.57   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.57R   10.30  
Sheff_Utd       27   26  -12     -11.65     6.08   -12.91    51.94     6.15   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   24.99R    3.74  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.91    20.84    -8.12    43.88     6.08   -28.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.75R   36.13  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Burton_Albion 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         29   54  +21       3.64    67.40     5.75    83.25     5.73    29.58    47.43    84.03    99.50    89.19P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           29   51  +14       2.04    59.58     0.61    80.20     5.82    22.46    23.46    66.22    97.68    76.73P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   49  +16       4.96    73.55     7.79    76.19     5.91    19.76     8.82    39.20    91.26    53.28P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       6.84    80.49     7.86    74.72     6.04    15.00     5.45    29.16    86.06    42.15P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   47  +12       2.45    62.18     3.04    75.90     5.93    18.05     7.47    36.72    90.47    52.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   47   +9       4.75    72.43     3.31    74.77     6.14    13.57     5.41    29.12    85.38    43.06P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   47   +4       7.69    83.31     2.46    71.37     5.95     3.68     1.71    12.28    67.24    23.29P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.34    86.40    12.23    63.69     6.47     1.13     0.20     1.80    22.39     5.21P    0.48R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red            29   39   +1       0.89    55.02     3.09    62.27     5.79     1.14     0.02     0.45    14.27     3.30P    0.58R    0.14  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   38   -1       2.80    64.67     5.33    59.12     5.70    -4.03     0.00     0.12     5.60     1.01P    1.99R    0.52  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.46    57.89    -1.59    60.60     5.86    -6.79     0.03     0.30     8.60     2.01P    1.37R    0.34  
Plymouth             28   36   -6       1.48    58.51    -1.55    57.74     5.77    -9.43     0.00     0.07     3.35     0.70P    4.01R    1.15  
York                 30   35   -3      -1.49    43.10     3.01    54.95     5.43    -5.56     0.00     0.01     1.04     0.20P    7.82R    2.39  
Cheltenham           28   35   -4      -3.66    32.22    -4.58    58.59     5.93    -5.39     0.00     0.08     4.98     1.17P    3.18R    0.92  
Hartlepool           29   35   -5      -5.34    25.84    -6.27    59.00     5.77    -3.65     0.00     0.10     5.21     1.40P    2.45R    0.71  
Exeter               28   34   -4      -4.31    29.66    -4.05    59.11     5.97    -3.27     0.00     0.16     6.14     1.60P    2.57R    0.79  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.66    47.30     0.17    54.47     6.03   -11.14     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.22P   12.83R    5.01  
Portsmouth           29   32   -9     -10.34    10.62   -12.96    56.49     5.89    -7.34     0.00     0.04     2.42     0.68P    6.20R    2.11  
Mansfield            29   32   -9      -0.37    49.29     1.74    51.76     5.73   -13.94     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P   23.74R   10.39  
Bury                 27   31   -3      -7.13    18.32    -4.82    57.91     6.34    -1.66     0.00     0.12     5.35     1.50P    4.78R    1.68  
Bristol_Rovers       28   30   -5      -5.35    24.73    -1.13    52.88     5.87    -7.29     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.14P   16.96R    6.91  
Wycombe              28   29   -6      -7.35    17.40    -3.38    51.96     5.89    -8.34     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.13P   20.77R    9.21  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.06    25.77    -7.11    51.16     5.87   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.07P   28.20R   13.46  
Northampton          27   23  -16      -8.79    11.96    -8.94    45.96     6.03   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   62.07R   44.19  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Chester 1 3 Welling; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.70    81.65    12.68    94.80     5.61    53.32    77.82    99.98    86.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.22    91.19    14.53    88.12     5.70    37.11    18.36    98.90    42.62P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.74    95.57     4.61    74.06     5.40    -1.27     0.11    41.58     4.79P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.33    70.21     6.17    71.49     5.26    12.40     0.01    26.91     4.72P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.88    64.73     0.71    81.80     6.13    25.33     3.53    87.44    29.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         31   47   -1       8.08    84.32     4.44    66.38     5.09    -2.75     0.00     4.99     0.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -1.09    44.51    -7.74    73.06     5.66     9.79     0.07    37.30     8.78P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        28   46   +3       9.66    89.00     6.46    68.40     5.92    -0.80     0.02    13.28     1.83P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          32   45   +7       1.28    56.41     7.97    65.22     5.24     8.35     0.00     4.32     0.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.67    28.32    -6.15    70.22     5.54    12.03     0.01    21.55     5.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -7.22    18.09    -8.00    69.02     5.63    12.59     0.01    16.50     4.52P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.77    63.59     7.20    62.75     5.56     1.97     0.00     2.08     0.30P    0.04R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.60    53.18     0.79    66.79     6.10     5.40     0.02     9.87     1.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.19    33.66     3.02    69.32     6.12    17.90     0.03    20.44     4.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         29   39   +2      -5.04    26.22    -4.35    62.56     5.54     2.67     0.00     1.76     0.38P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.10    66.84     7.10    67.12     6.39     8.46     0.02    12.24     2.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     30   36   -6      -1.87    41.06    -0.81    56.95     5.40    -7.69     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.89R    0.00  
Woking           28   33   -9      -1.56    42.73    -2.05    51.52     5.58   -19.76     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.84R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.03    19.13    -6.46    60.56     5.65    16.49     0.00     0.75     0.26P    0.31R    0.00  
Chester          29   28  -18      -0.44    49.20    -0.72    45.85     5.31   -26.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.91R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.53    48.08    -2.94    48.20     5.75   -25.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.42R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.22    28.95    -6.64    45.24     5.37   -29.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.25R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.68    12.35    -9.98    41.10     5.27   -32.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.24R    0.05  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.50     0.52   -19.83    17.91     4.54   -77.24     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10