Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 1 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Cardiff 2 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         23   53  +42       1.98    60.97     7.80    85.82     4.61    64.28    70.26    90.50    97.88    99.69   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   52  +24       6.95    85.36     2.67    80.10     5.09    35.92    15.54    50.41    79.33    94.61    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   50  +23       5.10    77.80     1.88    79.11     5.04    36.14    11.19    41.80    74.64    93.07    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   46  +29       1.01    55.32     6.53    74.68     5.22    41.98     2.91    15.84    39.77    76.43    97.14     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   45  +12       5.31    77.73     2.42    67.54     5.00    16.90     0.05     0.73     3.80    15.01    72.17     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   44   -1       6.99    84.11    -6.43    66.11     5.02     3.23     0.02     0.34     2.16     9.62    58.16     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -5.20    22.18    -9.15    66.41     4.91    21.68     0.02     0.39     2.41    11.43    66.93     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        24   37   +1       5.67    79.61     4.62    55.09     4.91    -1.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     3.23     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      24   35   +7       2.58    65.10     8.71    54.44     5.03     6.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.10     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      24   27   -7      -0.33    48.87     2.65    44.53     4.87   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.24R    0.19  
Stoke            24   25  -14      -0.90    45.63    -2.99    40.81     4.79   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.35R    1.52  
Swansea          24   24   -6      -5.29    22.36     0.48    42.33     4.91    -7.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.40R    0.72  
Hull             24   24   -7      -0.41    48.68     6.62    38.33     4.81   -14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.86R    4.18  
Sunderland       24   24  -11      -4.02    28.48    -3.55    39.23     4.61   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.31R    2.74  
Norwich          24   24  -18      -1.50    41.78    -5.03    36.90     4.63   -28.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.36R    8.14  
Crystal_Palace   23   23  -16       2.38    66.29     1.99    34.53     4.60   -30.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.41R   20.21  
West_Brom        23   22   -6      -6.96    15.12    -0.95    41.36     5.17    -8.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.27R    1.73  
West_Ham         24   22   -9      -6.50    17.10    -1.49    37.87     4.80   -14.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.08R    5.05  
Cardiff          24   21  -22      -0.84    46.44    -2.78    35.05     4.73   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.20R   17.09  
Fulham           24   19  -31      -4.66    24.43   -13.98    32.63     4.61   -41.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.52R   38.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Birmingham 3 3 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       29   66  +24      14.70    97.21     6.39    95.76     5.57    33.77    84.07    96.13    99.99    97.11P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   56  +16       8.73    86.90     3.21    85.39     5.90    22.94     9.62    49.18    97.53    62.64P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   53  +19       8.02    85.15     9.03    81.83     5.95    25.16     3.73    25.35    92.28    41.90P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   52  +17       7.02    80.85     9.06    79.52     5.75    23.62     1.41    14.92    86.58    30.54P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   47  +15       5.11    74.52     7.64    76.65     6.05    20.49     0.74     7.55    72.21    22.63P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         29   47  +14      -1.66    41.77     0.46    75.91     5.76    22.72     0.39     5.68    70.20    24.88P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   43   +9       2.44    62.16     7.68    66.65     5.65     9.57     0.00     0.10    12.30     2.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   42   +2       0.50    52.77    -0.65    65.01     5.65     1.73     0.00     0.05     6.67     1.40P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        27   40   +7      -1.58    41.70     0.08    69.76     6.02    12.50     0.01     0.58    27.05     7.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           27   40   +3      -2.31    38.44    -4.74    68.72     6.13     7.28     0.02     0.41    21.08     5.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    28   39   +4       0.09    50.74     3.37    63.64     5.89     3.91     0.00     0.03     5.57     1.13P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   38   +6      -2.88    36.38     4.28    62.31     5.73     7.53     0.00     0.01     3.53     0.74P    0.09R    0.00  
Huddersfield    28   34   -1      -0.73    46.83     4.56    56.80     5.88    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.08P    1.58R    0.06  
Bournemouth     28   34  -13       3.62    69.09     0.33    53.55     5.84   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.70R    0.53  
Blackpool       29   33  -14      -3.73    32.53    -9.45    54.47     5.54   -16.83     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    3.78R    0.19  
Watford         26   31   +3      -8.44    13.07    -2.84    61.83     6.38     8.06     0.00     0.02     4.08     1.06P    0.36R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       27   30   +0      -5.34    24.04     2.32    54.02     6.07    -2.97     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    4.72R    0.29  
Birmingham      28   30   -3      -9.28    11.19    -4.28    54.33     5.94    -3.42     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    4.10R    0.24  
Doncaster       29   29  -18      -0.30    49.76    -2.36    46.19     5.38   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.05R    7.07  
Bolton          28   28  -13      -8.39    13.66    -9.73    53.64     6.01   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    6.30R    0.54  
Millwall        28   26  -26      -3.08    34.81   -11.52    44.71     5.50   -35.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.82R   12.55  
Charlton        27   24  -13      -9.06    10.73    -7.54    48.25     5.97   -15.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.24R    3.91  
Barnsley        27   21  -20      -7.14    15.96    -6.22    39.93     5.65   -31.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.82R   37.88  
Yeovil          26   20  -18      -3.59    31.38     0.91    40.15     5.93   -29.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.39R   36.74  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Bristol_City 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       29   63  +24      12.94    95.06     8.61    91.99     5.77    32.42    30.07    62.77    99.91    73.94P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   61  +29       4.54    71.41     4.21    92.84     5.65    41.93    39.52    71.56    99.95    82.97P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   28   60  +33      11.31    92.81    17.35    91.17     5.98    42.85    29.48    60.41    99.83    72.29P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         28   52  +11      10.13    90.27     5.79    79.51     5.96    15.18     0.69     3.62    86.30    21.61P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       29   51  +13      10.32    89.19    12.10    74.08     5.89    12.28     0.09     0.57    57.96     9.35P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.06    64.95     5.25    71.70     5.75    13.48     0.02     0.15    41.90     9.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.35    43.25    -4.19    75.38     6.09    17.12     0.13     0.89    67.85    19.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         29   41   +7      -6.56    20.82    -4.76    68.44     5.85    13.11     0.00     0.04    23.27     6.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       27   39   -3       5.39    75.24     2.90    62.98     6.32    -6.87     0.00     0.00     5.97     0.91P    0.89R    0.04  
MK_Dons         28   36   -1      -6.81    19.44    -7.52    61.90     6.04     0.69     0.00     0.00     4.24     0.99P    0.91R    0.03  
Gillingham      29   35  -10       1.63    58.99     0.48    54.98     5.75   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   11.84R    0.95  
Coventry        27   34   +8       2.14    60.73     0.75    63.81     6.33    13.69     0.00     0.00     8.71     2.00P    0.63R    0.01  
Bradford        28   34   +4       0.60    53.83    11.35    56.40     5.92     0.44     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.09P    6.67R    0.46  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.69    54.05     4.64    58.99     6.31    -2.94     0.00     0.00     1.93     0.32P    3.74R    0.23  
Oldham          29   33   -8      -0.74    47.07     0.94    54.07     5.74   -11.21     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   14.35R    1.26  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.22    49.67    -0.03    57.24     6.47    -8.85     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.17P    7.65R    0.66  
Tranmere        29   31  -18      -3.26    34.50    -9.54    52.20     5.67   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   24.04R    3.09  
Carlisle        28   30  -17      -0.60    47.81    -3.93    49.56     5.78   -25.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   41.40R    7.99  
Crewe           29   30  -24       0.73    54.96    -6.41    46.60     5.45   -34.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.72R   18.38  
Bristol_City    28   27   -6     -11.94     6.90    -6.30    52.46     6.17    -5.11     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   21.41R    3.17  
Shrewsbury      29   27  -11      -6.73    19.62    -2.21    47.33     5.58   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.50R   13.07  
Notts_County    30   27  -13     -11.59     7.35    -8.71    47.97     5.56   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.19R   10.12  
Sheff_Utd       27   26  -12     -11.59     6.18   -12.88    51.96     6.14   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   24.82R    3.58  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.79    21.31    -7.89    43.76     6.11   -28.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.21R   36.95  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Burton_Albion 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         29   54  +21       3.61    67.30     5.73    83.22     5.73    29.53    47.30    83.64    99.41    88.82P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           29   51  +14       1.97    59.15     0.49    80.21     5.82    22.53    23.56    66.22    97.77    76.47P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   49  +16       5.09    74.21     7.94    76.15     5.90    19.71     8.77    38.97    91.15    53.58P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   48  +12       6.93    80.82     8.01    74.70     6.02    14.97     5.57    29.04    86.04    41.98P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   47  +12       2.44    62.09     3.04    75.92     5.91    18.11     7.47    36.88    90.66    52.88P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   47   +9       4.71    72.10     3.29    74.81     6.14    13.60     5.41    29.69    85.56    43.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   47   +4       7.78    83.80     2.54    71.30     5.95     3.61     1.69    12.19    66.87    23.05P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.15    86.19    11.92    63.87     6.45     1.39     0.18     1.80    23.51     5.32P    0.47R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red            29   39   +1       1.12    56.05     3.45    62.16     5.79     0.96     0.02     0.51    13.62     3.26P    0.61R    0.15  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   38   -1       2.99    65.33     5.61    59.04     5.69    -4.15     0.00     0.10     5.44     1.05P    2.02R    0.53  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.60    58.64    -1.37    60.52     5.88    -6.94     0.01     0.31     8.50     1.92P    1.45R    0.39  
Plymouth             28   36   -6       1.35    57.79    -1.73    57.81     5.71    -9.32     0.00     0.05     3.29     0.66P    3.65R    1.15  
York                 30   35   -3      -1.48    43.66     2.97    54.90     5.42    -5.61     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.17P    7.87R    2.43  
Cheltenham           28   35   -4      -3.72    32.09    -4.65    58.60     5.95    -5.39     0.00     0.13     5.05     1.27P    3.22R    0.84  
Hartlepool           29   35   -5      -5.14    26.85    -6.01    58.95     5.79    -3.74     0.00     0.09     5.01     1.37P    2.53R    0.68  
Exeter               28   34   -4      -4.36    29.39    -4.08    59.14     5.99    -3.26     0.00     0.19     6.29     1.66P    2.52R    0.71  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.65    47.30     0.19    54.39     6.00   -11.20     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.24P   12.77R    5.09  
Portsmouth           29   32   -9     -10.49    10.17   -13.19    56.51     5.86    -7.23     0.00     0.02     2.38     0.75P    6.02R    2.04  
Mansfield            29   32   -9      -0.44    48.87     1.57    51.80     5.76   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P   23.55R   10.27  
Bury                 27   31   -3      -7.43    17.20    -5.19    58.03     6.29    -1.48     0.00     0.14     5.38     1.58P    4.43R    1.57  
Bristol_Rovers       28   30   -5      -5.29    25.15    -1.03    52.89     5.85    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.13P   16.84R    6.94  
Wycombe              28   29   -6      -7.36    17.60    -3.35    51.96     5.93    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.12P   21.32R    9.19  
Torquay              28   29  -13      -5.14    25.54    -7.19    51.20     5.89   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P   28.25R   13.23  
Northampton          27   23  -16      -8.77    11.64    -8.91    45.92     6.01   -20.21     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   62.48R   44.66  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2014, Chester 1 3 Welling; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.64    81.25    12.61    94.80     5.62    53.36    77.77    99.96    86.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.40    91.60    14.75    88.09     5.70    37.03    18.37    98.87    42.24P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.87    95.69     4.83    73.96     5.44    -1.45     0.10    40.74     4.71P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   50  +11       4.43    70.75     6.39    71.35     5.24    12.16     0.02    26.01     4.56P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.80    64.16     0.66    81.86     6.13    25.45     3.58    87.83    29.74P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         31   47   -1       7.99    83.96     4.33    66.42     5.09    -2.68     0.00     5.18     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +4      -0.94    45.28    -7.61    72.95     5.66     9.65     0.07    36.98     8.76P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        28   46   +3       9.51    88.56     6.24    68.41     5.94    -0.77     0.02    13.54     1.80P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          32   45   +7       1.53    57.61     8.43    65.13     5.25     8.21     0.00     4.29     0.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.50    28.91    -5.94    70.15     5.49    11.92     0.01    20.89     5.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -7.15    18.20    -7.95    69.05     5.62    12.64     0.01    16.88     4.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          30   42   +4       2.34    61.39     6.59    63.01     5.55     2.36     0.00     2.39     0.41P    0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.73    53.90     0.98    66.73     6.13     5.32     0.01    10.11     1.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.25    33.47     2.95    69.40     6.16    18.00     0.03    21.19     5.04P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         29   39   +2      -4.89    26.94    -4.11    62.44     5.57     2.47     0.00     1.78     0.38P    0.05R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.11    67.06     7.08    67.18     6.38     8.50     0.00    12.38     2.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     30   36   -6      -1.63    42.59    -0.41    56.86     5.40    -7.87     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.02R    0.00  
Woking           28   33   -9      -1.59    42.46    -2.15    51.55     5.59   -19.68     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.65R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.32    17.94    -6.90    60.72     5.64    16.79     0.00     0.90     0.30P    0.25R    0.00  
Chester          29   28  -18      -0.48    48.83    -0.64    45.86     5.33   -26.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.86R    0.01  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.60    47.79    -3.06    48.24     5.80   -25.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.41R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.30    29.04    -6.85    45.28     5.40   -29.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.27R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.85    11.72   -10.27    41.11     5.23   -32.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.42R    0.05  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.55     0.47   -19.95    17.96     4.54   -77.20     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10