Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 31 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 January 2014, Aston_Villa 4 3 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         23   53  +42       2.05    61.33     8.00    85.85     4.61    64.38    70.48    90.57    97.74    99.59    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   52  +24       6.89    85.28     2.48    80.09     5.06    35.97    15.20    50.30    78.67    93.31    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   50  +23       4.98    77.45     1.65    79.05     5.07    36.08    11.26    41.19    72.67    91.15    99.40     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   46  +29       1.11    56.10     6.76    74.58     5.24    41.74     2.89    15.46    38.64    71.78    96.42     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   43   -1       7.48    86.62    -6.23    66.97     5.29     3.94     0.05     0.68     3.34    12.03    59.99     0.00     0.00  
Everton          23   42  +11       4.39    73.99     2.46    66.55     5.25    16.82     0.07     0.58     2.91    11.21    59.33     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   40  +11      -3.79    27.99    -8.26    68.64     5.06    24.01     0.07     1.23     5.99    20.57    77.52     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        23   37   +4       6.46    82.90     6.62    57.51     5.17     3.18     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.31     6.66     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      23   32   +4       1.92    61.69     7.34    52.32     5.26     2.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.10     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      23   27   -6       0.44    53.62     2.72    45.13     5.04   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.41R    0.15  
Swansea          23   24   -4      -4.51    25.46     1.61    43.98     5.16    -5.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.64R    0.34  
Norwich          23   24  -17      -0.59    47.41    -4.71    38.36     4.87   -27.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.37R    4.58  
Hull             23   23   -7      -0.26    49.62     6.40    38.36     5.02   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.91R    4.25  
Crystal_Palace   23   23  -16       2.33    65.93     1.98    34.58     4.55   -30.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.25R   17.60  
West_Brom        23   22   -6      -6.92    14.97    -0.83    41.25     5.19    -9.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.23R    1.52  
Stoke            23   22  -15      -2.74    34.25    -4.28    38.36     4.96   -21.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.18R    4.49  
Sunderland       23   21  -14      -5.07    22.75    -5.71    36.55     4.74   -23.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.37R    8.17  
West_Ham         23   19  -11      -7.54    12.40    -2.51    36.18     4.99   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.85R    9.28  
Fulham           23   19  -28      -4.10    26.77   -12.45    34.25     4.91   -38.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.01R   22.81  
Cardiff          23   18  -23      -2.02    38.65    -3.06    33.43     4.93   -31.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.77R   26.82  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 30 January 2014, Nott'm_Forest 4 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       28   63  +23      13.57    96.22     6.06    94.56     5.80    33.54    77.16    93.55    99.98    95.24P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             27   55  +16       9.40    89.42     3.65    86.13     6.04    23.40    14.03    53.45    98.26    66.08P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   52  +19       8.21    86.36     8.89    81.87     6.11    24.75     5.18    25.99    93.11    42.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   51  +17       7.51    82.94     9.21    79.66     6.00    23.20     2.32    15.41    87.95    31.34P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   47  +15       4.93    73.88     7.34    76.72     6.10    20.57     1.02     7.45    75.81    23.74P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         28   44  +11      -1.99    39.93    -0.55    74.15     5.98    19.49     0.25     3.15    61.61    19.99P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   40   +8       1.20    56.47     7.22    65.24     5.91     8.90     0.00     0.08    10.89     2.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton        27   40   +7      -1.63    41.24    -0.06    69.83     5.98    12.60     0.03     0.56    30.83     8.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   39   +0      -0.31    48.83    -1.49    63.50     5.89    -0.12     0.00     0.03     5.49     1.17P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   37   +6      -2.42    38.04     4.44    62.86     5.94     7.78     0.00     0.03     5.67     1.30P    0.12R    0.00  
Wigan           26   37   +2      -3.49    32.23    -5.15    67.60     6.28     7.04     0.01     0.27    19.33     5.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    27   36   +0      -0.18    49.68     1.36    61.69     6.04    -0.51     0.00     0.02     3.62     0.73P    0.29R    0.01  
Huddersfield    27   34   +3      -0.95    45.69     6.01    58.70     6.08     0.89     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.31P    0.97R    0.04  
Bournemouth     27   34  -12       4.59    73.68     0.74    54.65     6.07   -20.74     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P    6.23R    0.46  
Blackpool       28   33  -12      -3.10    35.25    -8.59    55.57     5.76   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    3.30R    0.19  
Watford         26   31   +3      -8.35    13.40    -2.76    61.70     6.39     7.85     0.00     0.02     4.80     1.17P    0.48R    0.02  
Birmingham      27   29   -3      -8.97    11.68    -4.49    54.89     6.15    -3.11     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    4.93R    0.33  
Bolton          27   28  -12      -7.59    15.80    -9.63    54.80     6.19   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    5.71R    0.50  
Doncaster       28   28  -18       0.03    51.47    -2.29    46.34     5.64   -27.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.52R    8.54  
Sheff_Wed       26   27   -1      -6.25    19.76     2.35    52.69     6.24    -3.49     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    9.33R    0.89  
Millwall        27   26  -23      -2.71    36.25   -10.18    46.18     5.76   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.11R    9.68  
Charlton        26   24  -12      -8.18    12.80    -7.26    49.08     6.10   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.41R    3.55  
Barnsley        26   21  -19      -6.24    19.00    -5.92    40.78     5.86   -30.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.32R   35.21  
Yeovil          26   20  -18      -3.50    31.92     1.09    40.03     5.94   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.17R   40.56  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Bradford 0 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       28   62  +24      13.35    95.84     8.65    92.84     5.96    33.19    32.72    65.50    99.92    76.08P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   27   60  +34      12.38    94.99    17.88    93.01     6.17    44.58    38.25    69.27    99.89    78.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   58  +27       3.90    68.47     3.57    91.86     5.84    40.85    28.53    61.75    99.87    77.05P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         27   49   +9       9.24    88.58     4.95    77.96     6.19    13.26     0.36     2.10    78.84    17.39P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       28   48  +12       9.05    86.54    11.71    71.74     6.10    10.11     0.03     0.26    41.92     6.41P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.15    65.48     5.35    71.71     5.77    13.55     0.01     0.12    42.82     8.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.40    43.26    -4.25    75.42     6.08    17.19     0.10     0.88    67.59    18.89P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         28   41   +8      -5.26    25.32    -3.92    70.67     6.05    15.44     0.00     0.11    37.46    10.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.44    79.80     3.31    64.42     6.48    -5.69     0.00     0.01     9.24     1.24P    0.41R    0.01  
MK_Dons         27   36   +0      -5.75    23.16    -7.01    64.15     6.29     3.00     0.00     0.00     9.07     2.15P    0.33R    0.01  
Coventry        27   34   +8       2.18    60.63     0.76    63.76     6.39    13.62     0.00     0.00     8.91     2.09P    0.51R    0.02  
Bradford        27   34   +6       0.71    54.42    11.49    57.48     6.13     1.92     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.18P    4.38R    0.25  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.81    54.69     4.88    58.89     6.28    -3.13     0.00     0.00     1.79     0.28P    3.17R    0.16  
Gillingham      28   32  -11       0.52    53.80     0.17    53.29     5.97   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   17.11R    1.69  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.09    50.31     0.10    57.16     6.50    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.16P    6.80R    0.52  
Oldham          28   30   -9      -2.44    38.33    -0.00    51.44     5.87   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   24.50R    2.85  
Carlisle        27   30  -16       0.37    53.00    -3.55    50.40     5.93   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   33.34R    5.03  
Tranmere        28   28  -19      -4.73    27.11   -10.16    49.67     5.91   -23.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   36.78R    5.98  
Notts_County    29   27  -11     -11.11     8.14    -8.05    49.34     5.77   -12.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   35.41R    5.61  
Crewe           28   27  -27      -0.05    51.00    -7.93    44.08     5.54   -39.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.55R   29.67  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.08     6.77   -11.15    54.44     6.37    -7.40     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.07P   13.04R    1.39  
Shrewsbury      28   26  -11      -6.47    19.63    -2.30    47.29     5.78   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.39R   11.19  
Bristol_City    27   24   -7     -13.15     4.63    -6.62    51.53     6.37    -4.99     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   24.27R    3.82  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.73    21.71    -7.87    43.74     6.10   -28.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.99R   31.81  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 31 January 2014, Southend 0 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         28   51  +19       2.87    63.91     4.94    81.86     5.96    27.92    35.39    74.30    98.50    82.18P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           28   50  +14       2.31    61.13     0.41    80.88     6.08    22.97    27.35    66.94    97.62    76.70P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   48  +13       8.06    85.01     8.58    76.74     6.22    16.95    10.22    38.65    90.68    50.65P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   47  +12       2.41    61.94     2.98    76.03     5.97    18.24     7.78    35.12    89.78    51.68P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.73    76.89     3.77    76.94     6.34    15.68    10.60    40.07    90.25    52.52P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   46  +15       4.03    69.76     7.77    74.77     6.10    19.06     6.26    28.64    85.44    43.82P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   46   +4       8.16    85.55     2.64    71.81     6.14     3.80     2.17    13.09    67.82    23.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       26   39   +5       8.11    85.69    11.93    64.01     6.45     1.55     0.16     1.76    22.22     5.15P    0.38R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   38   +0       3.58    68.40     5.55    60.03     5.89    -3.61     0.01     0.17     7.34     1.39P    1.37R    0.35  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.48    57.94    -1.55    60.61     5.90    -6.82     0.02     0.30     8.08     1.85P    1.19R    0.27  
Dag_&_Red            28   36   +0      -0.44    48.14     2.61    60.00     5.93    -0.91     0.01     0.19     7.51     1.60P    1.45R    0.38  
Plymouth             27   35   -6       1.77    60.25    -1.60    58.43     5.93    -8.97     0.00     0.09     3.99     0.87P    2.95R    0.85  
Cheltenham           27   34   -4      -3.13    34.87    -4.35    59.30     6.18    -4.90     0.01     0.21     6.29     1.60P    2.55R    0.75  
Hartlepool           28   34   -5      -4.87    27.37    -6.07    59.07     6.04    -4.09     0.00     0.10     5.61     1.44P    2.48R    0.72  
Exeter               27   33   -4      -3.89    31.12    -3.92    59.23     6.22    -3.63     0.02     0.17     6.48     1.63P    2.62R    0.72  
York                 29   32   -4      -2.91    36.06     2.23    52.64     5.63    -7.54     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.10P   15.05R    5.31  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.69    47.15     0.18    54.50     6.00   -11.07     0.00     0.02     1.21     0.26P   11.25R    4.28  
Portsmouth           28   32   -8      -9.19    12.88   -12.23    58.58     6.13    -5.31     0.00     0.09     5.09     1.44P    3.14R    0.89  
Mansfield            28   31   -9      -0.11    50.48     1.64    51.92     5.90   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.07P   21.44R    9.18  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30   -3      -4.98    25.99    -0.53    54.04     6.06    -5.58     0.00     0.02     1.13     0.26P   11.33R    4.34  
Wycombe              27   29   -5      -6.35    20.61    -2.80    53.17     6.12    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.20P   15.03R    6.22  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.30    14.14    -5.10    56.23     6.53    -2.74     0.00     0.07     3.21     0.94P    7.62R    2.90  
Torquay              27   26  -14      -6.69    18.68    -8.01    48.99     6.02   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   39.62R   20.87  
Northampton          26   22  -16      -8.50    11.96    -9.04    45.85     6.19   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   60.53R   41.90  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Cambridge_Utd 1 2 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.72    81.55    12.69    94.77     5.62    53.25    77.51    99.96    85.96P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.20    91.07    14.47    88.18     5.74    37.19    18.70    98.78    42.68P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.76    95.53     4.65    74.02     5.45    -1.31     0.13    40.58     4.79P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.80    64.61     0.63    81.75     6.14    25.26     3.37    86.99    28.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.47    66.89     5.41    69.76     5.44    10.20     0.01    18.08     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         30   47   +0       8.88    86.99     4.63    67.54     5.31    -2.00     0.00     8.22     1.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    28   46   +6      -0.27    48.65    -6.62    74.58     5.84    12.06     0.20    47.55    11.39P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          31   45   +9       2.01    59.72     8.94    66.54     5.50    10.33     0.00     7.76     1.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.58    28.48    -6.01    70.20     5.49    11.99     0.00    20.65     5.62P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        27   43   +2       8.44    86.15     6.05    66.91     6.21    -1.60     0.01     9.80     1.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -7.14    18.03    -7.90    68.90     5.60    12.40     0.01    15.43     4.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.65    53.59     0.84    66.76     6.17     5.33     0.00     9.74     1.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.29    32.98     2.91    69.43     6.13    18.06     0.03    20.59     4.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          29   39   +2       1.86    59.84     6.39    60.60     5.72    -0.77     0.00     1.02     0.15P    0.26R    0.00  
Hereford         29   39   +2      -4.98    26.41    -4.22    62.59     5.57     2.72     0.00     1.75     0.35P    0.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.13    67.05     7.14    67.25     6.41     8.64     0.02    12.30     2.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   33   -8      -2.61    37.35    -1.45    55.19     5.63    -9.88     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.78R    0.00  
Woking           28   33   -9      -1.69    42.05    -2.31    51.62     5.62   -19.60     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.97R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.05    18.85    -6.48    60.55     5.64    16.44     0.00     0.74     0.24P    0.39R    0.00  
Chester          28   28  -16       0.32    53.20     0.18    47.66     5.57   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.80R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.58    48.05    -3.12    48.30     5.73   -25.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.90R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.13    29.91    -6.55    45.22     5.41   -29.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.88R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.92    11.59   -10.41    41.14     5.25   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.92R    0.06  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.47     0.46   -19.85    17.87     4.52   -77.37     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10