Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 30 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 January 2014, Aston_Villa 4 3 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         23   53  +42       2.04    61.33     8.02    85.86     4.59    64.39    70.66    90.63    97.69    99.63    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   52  +24       6.95    85.73     2.64    80.11     5.09    35.99    15.12    49.77    78.22    93.08    99.57     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   50  +23       4.99    77.35     1.65    79.12     5.05    36.15    11.32    41.70    73.19    91.53    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   46  +29       0.93    54.84     6.41    74.67     5.23    41.95     2.71    15.45    38.85    72.29    96.32     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   43   -1       7.67    86.75    -5.98    66.86     5.27     3.75     0.03     0.64     3.15    11.64    59.36     0.00     0.00  
Everton          23   42  +11       4.27    73.29     2.27    66.59     5.22    16.90     0.05     0.58     2.91    10.91    59.77     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   40  +11      -3.81    27.99    -8.29    68.63     5.08    23.98     0.11     1.22     5.95    20.56    77.39     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        23   37   +4       6.41    82.65     6.63    57.50     5.19     3.13     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.34     6.93     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      23   32   +4       2.05    62.50     7.51    52.26     5.26     2.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.19     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      23   27   -6       0.41    53.32     2.63    45.19     5.05   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.42R    0.15  
Swansea          23   24   -4      -4.44    26.01     1.73    43.89     5.14    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.66R    0.34  
Norwich          23   24  -17      -0.54    47.82    -4.69    38.31     4.88   -27.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.00R    4.80  
Hull             23   23   -7      -0.27    49.44     6.40    38.35     5.02   -14.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.02R    4.20  
Crystal_Palace   23   23  -16       2.51    67.07     2.33    34.49     4.58   -30.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.24R   18.32  
West_Brom        23   22   -6      -6.97    14.81    -0.92    41.30     5.14    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.79R    1.49  
Stoke            23   22  -15      -2.68    34.51    -4.16    38.32     4.94   -21.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.37R    4.37  
Sunderland       23   21  -14      -5.09    22.76    -5.72    36.58     4.75   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.88R    8.21  
West_Ham         23   19  -11      -7.50    12.53    -2.48    36.17     4.97   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.80R    9.49  
Fulham           23   19  -28      -4.27    25.80   -12.70    34.37     4.94   -38.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.24R   22.02  
Cardiff          23   18  -23      -2.09    38.38    -3.27    33.42     4.91   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.57R   26.61  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 30 January 2014, Nott'm_Forest 4 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       28   63  +23      13.46    96.21     6.00    94.50     5.81    33.45    77.09    93.53    99.98    95.32P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             27   55  +16       9.33    89.12     3.59    86.17     6.04    23.46    14.38    54.37    98.35    66.90P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   52  +19       8.33    86.52     9.03    81.78     6.07    24.63     5.02    25.19    92.91    42.10P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   51  +17       7.48    82.92     9.21    79.64     5.96    23.14     2.21    15.40    88.13    31.36P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   47  +15       4.97    74.24     7.44    76.73     6.05    20.62     1.00     7.36    75.90    23.44P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         28   44  +11      -1.96    40.16    -0.53    74.08     5.98    19.41     0.26     3.13    61.21    19.57P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   40   +8       1.19    56.54     7.17    65.34     5.88     9.02     0.00     0.05    10.94     2.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        27   40   +7      -1.78    40.72    -0.24    69.88     5.99    12.66     0.02     0.54    30.93     8.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   39   +0      -0.39    48.36    -1.60    63.52     5.90    -0.08     0.00     0.02     5.68     1.12P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   37   +6      -2.30    38.81     4.61    62.82     5.92     7.74     0.00     0.02     5.49     1.21P    0.10R    0.00  
Wigan           26   37   +2      -3.35    33.41    -4.92    67.54     6.32     6.89     0.01     0.32    19.38     5.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    27   36   +0      -0.13    50.06     1.44    61.71     6.10    -0.49     0.00     0.03     3.70     0.78P    0.33R    0.01  
Huddersfield    27   34   +3      -0.71    46.65     6.30    58.63     6.13     0.75     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.29P    1.11R    0.04  
Bournemouth     27   34  -12       4.68    73.95     0.97    54.51     6.06   -20.94     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    6.40R    0.50  
Blackpool       28   33  -12      -3.00    35.57    -8.54    55.54     5.76   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    3.48R    0.16  
Watford         26   31   +3      -8.43    13.04    -2.88    61.75     6.40     7.91     0.00     0.03     4.70     1.18P    0.46R    0.02  
Birmingham      27   29   -3      -8.80    12.05    -4.24    54.71     6.17    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P    4.96R    0.34  
Bolton          27   28  -12      -7.62    15.57    -9.68    54.83     6.22   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    5.71R    0.45  
Doncaster       28   28  -18      -0.25    49.74    -2.74    46.51     5.65   -27.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.53R    8.08  
Sheff_Wed       26   27   -1      -6.47    19.14     2.07    52.81     6.24    -3.31     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    9.34R    0.89  
Millwall        27   26  -23      -2.67    36.76   -10.06    46.16     5.79   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.48R    9.71  
Charlton        26   24  -12      -8.29    12.62    -7.41    49.19     6.11   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   23.19R    3.63  
Barnsley        26   21  -19      -6.39    18.69    -6.16    40.91     5.92   -30.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.06R   34.56  
Yeovil          26   20  -18      -3.42    32.67     1.18    39.92     5.92   -30.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.76R   41.61  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Bradford 0 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       28   62  +24      13.33    95.84     8.61    92.97     5.91    33.31    32.99    65.72    99.92    76.02P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   27   60  +34      12.33    95.03    17.74    93.05     6.19    44.63    37.91    69.05    99.93    78.59P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   58  +27       3.84    68.17     3.52    91.89     5.85    40.90    28.56    61.74    99.87    76.82P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         27   49   +9       9.29    88.38     5.01    77.84     6.23    13.13     0.39     2.15    78.05    17.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       28   48  +12       9.13    86.70    11.82    71.75     6.11    10.14     0.03     0.21    42.16     6.66P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.07    65.06     5.28    71.75     5.78    13.59     0.01     0.16    42.99     8.97P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.43    42.85    -4.29    75.39     6.09    17.10     0.10     0.83    67.40    19.06P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         28   41   +8      -5.34    24.77    -4.00    70.80     6.04    15.59     0.01     0.13    38.54    10.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.56    80.48     3.43    64.42     6.49    -5.72     0.00     0.00     9.29     1.41P    0.44R    0.01  
MK_Dons         27   36   +0      -5.62    23.57    -6.82    64.03     6.26     2.86     0.00     0.01     8.65     2.10P    0.35R    0.01  
Coventry        27   34   +8       2.24    60.69     0.86    63.68     6.35    13.50     0.00     0.00     8.52     1.96P    0.53R    0.02  
Bradford        27   34   +6       0.62    53.70    11.33    57.48     6.10     1.92     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.18P    4.33R    0.22  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.74    54.50     4.76    58.95     6.25    -3.01     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.32P    3.08R    0.15  
Gillingham      28   32  -11       0.43    53.24     0.06    53.30     6.00   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   17.16R    1.83  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.12    49.89     0.10    57.15     6.47    -8.99     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.17P    6.72R    0.52  
Oldham          28   30   -9      -2.42    38.45     0.03    51.47     5.85   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   24.10R    2.90  
Carlisle        27   30  -16       0.35    52.98    -3.52    50.39     5.97   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   33.57R    4.98  
Tranmere        28   28  -19      -4.96    26.20   -10.56    49.82     5.84   -23.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.70R    5.66  
Notts_County    29   27  -11     -10.88     8.45    -7.73    49.22     5.78   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   36.41R    5.94  
Crewe           28   27  -27      -0.03    51.16    -7.97    44.10     5.58   -39.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.30R   29.88  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.26     6.59   -11.34    54.52     6.41    -7.26     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.09P   12.61R    1.42  
Shrewsbury      28   26  -11      -6.30    20.50    -2.06    47.15     5.77   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.21R   11.62  
Bristol_City    27   24   -7     -12.89     5.08    -6.20    51.35     6.40    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   25.05R    4.16  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.86    21.13    -8.06    43.85     6.11   -28.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.43R   30.67  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         28   51  +19       2.89    64.27     5.02    81.91     5.93    27.97    35.04    73.96    98.61    82.08P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           28   50  +14       2.50    61.82     0.69    80.77     6.02    22.80    26.09    65.55    97.43    75.87P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   48  +13       8.16    85.31     8.81    76.70     6.24    16.89    10.01    37.89    90.37    49.88P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.89    77.38     3.94    76.82     6.31    15.54     9.77    38.43    89.98    50.99P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   46  +15       4.06    70.24     7.74    74.73     6.12    19.03     6.13    27.65    85.18    42.89P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             27   46  +12       2.99    65.04     3.28    77.11     6.10    19.29    10.73    41.13    91.92    56.29P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   46   +4       8.23    85.72     2.77    71.73     6.13     3.67     1.97    12.27    66.92    23.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       25   38   +5       8.16    86.43    11.57    63.72     6.67     0.53     0.21     1.77    21.53     4.98P    0.50R    0.10  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   38   +0       3.69    68.71     5.71    59.98     5.87    -3.75     0.01     0.18     7.06     1.30P    1.30R    0.34  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.34    57.20    -1.75    60.70     5.90    -6.68     0.01     0.23     8.34     1.91P    0.98R    0.27  
Dag_&_Red            28   36   +0      -0.39    48.46     2.68    59.97     5.97    -0.94     0.01     0.15     7.50     1.69P    1.57R    0.48  
Plymouth             27   35   -6       1.70    59.68    -1.67    58.49     5.93    -8.91     0.00     0.08     4.25     0.88P    2.88R    0.84  
Cheltenham           27   34   -4      -3.14    34.55    -4.37    59.32     6.17    -4.89     0.01     0.20     6.46     1.65P    2.57R    0.74  
Hartlepool           28   34   -5      -5.07    26.41    -6.29    59.13     6.02    -4.03     0.00     0.11     5.57     1.56P    2.40R    0.73  
Exeter               27   33   -4      -4.05    30.40    -4.13    59.32     6.17    -3.52     0.01     0.19     6.47     1.64P    2.40R    0.68  
York                 29   32   -4      -2.96    35.95     2.18    52.65     5.57    -7.52     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.08P   14.75R    5.31  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.66    47.57     0.20    54.50     6.04   -11.10     0.00     0.01     1.24     0.20P   11.34R    4.31  
Portsmouth           28   32   -8      -9.34    12.82   -12.47    58.70     6.17    -5.13     0.00     0.09     5.17     1.54P    3.22R    1.01  
Mansfield            28   31   -9      -0.08    50.66     1.68    51.94     5.88   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P   21.74R    9.03  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30   -3      -4.86    26.43    -0.36    53.96     6.02    -5.69     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.21P   11.49R    4.66  
Wycombe              27   29   -5      -6.49    20.14    -2.98    53.24     6.16    -7.56     0.00     0.02     0.84     0.19P   14.90R    6.11  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.24    14.19    -5.07    56.17     6.59    -2.78     0.00     0.07     3.17     0.90P    8.01R    3.17  
Torquay              27   26  -14      -6.73    18.80    -8.04    49.00     6.03   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   39.88R   21.23  
Northampton          26   22  -16      -8.61    11.57    -9.14    45.94     6.21   -20.72     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   60.07R   40.99  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Cambridge_Utd 1 2 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.87    82.10    12.97    94.66     5.65    53.03    77.16    99.96    85.75P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.30    91.29    14.61    88.15     5.68    37.11    18.91    98.88    42.72P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.75    95.57     4.63    74.02     5.43    -1.32     0.09    40.54     4.81P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.93    65.03     0.82    81.73     6.16    25.23     3.55    86.87    28.75P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.44    66.93     5.33    69.80     5.50    10.21     0.01    18.30     3.23P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         30   47   +0       8.74    86.60     4.43    67.63     5.28    -1.87     0.00     8.40     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    28   46   +6      -0.33    47.96    -6.71    74.60     5.87    12.13     0.19    47.67    11.70P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          31   45   +9       2.12    60.42     9.14    66.51     5.50    10.26     0.00     7.57     1.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.53    28.61    -5.96    70.12     5.48    11.87     0.01    20.20     5.30P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        27   43   +2       8.40    86.35     5.92    67.02     6.13    -1.42     0.01     9.72     1.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -6.95    18.70    -7.62    68.82     5.65    12.29     0.01    15.18     4.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.67    53.65     0.87    66.80     6.15     5.43     0.01     9.86     1.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.31    33.14     2.84    69.51     6.14    18.21     0.03    20.74     4.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          29   39   +2       1.95    60.12     6.52    60.55     5.75    -0.90     0.00     0.98     0.15P    0.32R    0.00  
Hereford         29   39   +2      -5.03    26.25    -4.36    62.67     5.56     2.82     0.00     1.97     0.47P    0.05R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.04    66.22     6.95    67.33     6.39     8.77     0.02    12.43     2.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   33   -8      -2.66    36.89    -1.54    55.18     5.61    -9.91     0.00     0.05     0.00P    2.82R    0.00  
Woking           28   33   -9      -1.52    42.67    -2.07    51.51     5.59   -19.76     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.09R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.22    18.25    -6.75    60.55     5.64    16.49     0.00     0.68     0.23P    0.37R    0.00  
Chester          28   28  -16       0.13    52.24    -0.11    47.80     5.60   -23.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.76R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.64    47.61    -3.17    48.24     5.73   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.41R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.08    29.96    -6.43    45.17     5.36   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.07R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.86    11.78   -10.27    41.11     5.29   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.07R    0.05  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.57     0.56   -20.04    17.85     4.50   -77.36     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10