Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 29 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 January 2014, Aston_Villa 4 3 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         23   53  +42       2.00    61.06     7.81    85.88     4.62    64.47    70.65    90.64    97.72    99.58   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   52  +24       6.98    85.45     2.71    80.08     5.08    35.88    15.18    49.91    77.94    92.95    99.60     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   50  +23       4.96    77.18     1.59    79.11     5.07    36.14    11.32    41.49    73.24    91.45    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   46  +29       1.03    55.41     6.56    74.64     5.21    41.92     2.66    15.56    39.07    72.40    96.44     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   43   -1       7.56    86.73    -6.15    66.95     5.27     3.88     0.04     0.63     3.23    11.91    59.95     0.00     0.00  
Everton          23   42  +11       4.29    73.74     2.33    66.56     5.21    16.82     0.05     0.57     2.84    10.96    59.22     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   40  +11      -3.73    28.20    -8.13    68.64     5.07    24.01     0.09     1.20     5.92    20.37    77.39     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        23   37   +4       6.54    83.06     6.84    57.38     5.18     2.96     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.35     6.69     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      23   32   +4       1.94    61.83     7.31    52.39     5.25     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.24     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      23   27   -6       0.42    53.46     2.70    45.17     5.00   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.45R    0.17  
Swansea          23   24   -4      -4.51    25.42     1.65    43.96     5.11    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.47R    0.30  
Norwich          23   24  -17      -0.64    47.14    -4.79    38.35     4.91   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.81R    4.81  
Hull             23   23   -7      -0.20    49.86     6.52    38.33     5.01   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.22R    4.32  
Crystal_Palace   23   23  -16       2.39    66.34     2.04    34.58     4.55   -30.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.82R   17.88  
West_Brom        23   22   -6      -7.01    14.87    -0.94    41.29     5.16    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.25R    1.48  
Stoke            23   22  -15      -2.54    35.40    -3.98    38.24     4.92   -21.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.87R    4.61  
Sunderland       23   21  -14      -5.13    22.51    -5.76    36.60     4.74   -23.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.88R    7.91  
West_Ham         23   19  -11      -7.59    12.21    -2.57    36.15     5.01   -17.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.03R    9.51  
Fulham           23   19  -28      -4.09    26.80   -12.50    34.26     4.89   -38.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.81R   22.49  
Cardiff          23   18  -23      -2.14    37.73    -3.24    33.44     4.96   -31.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.39R   26.53  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Barnsley 2 2 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       28   63  +23      13.49    96.32     6.01    94.55     5.81    33.50    77.36    93.69    99.97    95.39P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             27   55  +16       9.33    89.21     3.54    86.19     6.07    23.51    14.40    55.11    98.33    67.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   52  +19       8.37    86.71     9.13    81.82     6.07    24.63     5.20    26.05    93.44    43.01P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   51  +17       7.44    82.93     9.13    79.59     5.95    23.08     2.07    15.39    88.56    31.07P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.23    71.31     6.74    74.98     6.30    18.41     0.59     5.08    66.24    19.31P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         28   44  +11      -2.22    39.02    -0.92    74.20     6.00    19.57     0.33     3.54    63.20    21.15P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   40   +8       1.31    56.74     7.38    65.27     5.87     8.89     0.00     0.07    11.21     2.12P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        27   40   +7      -1.71    41.00    -0.15    69.78     6.04    12.54     0.02     0.61    31.84     9.00P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       28   39   +0      -0.36    48.60    -1.56    63.49     5.86    -0.09     0.00     0.01     5.83     1.18P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   37   +6      -2.32    38.53     4.52    62.80     5.98     7.67     0.00     0.03     6.14     1.34P    0.16R    0.00  
Wigan           26   37   +2      -3.26    33.52    -4.79    67.45     6.35     6.79     0.01     0.32    19.88     5.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    27   36   +0      -0.06    50.19     1.53    61.69     6.07    -0.54     0.00     0.01     3.94     0.73P    0.32R    0.01  
Huddersfield    27   34   +3      -0.76    46.50     6.23    58.65     6.09     0.81     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.30P    1.00R    0.03  
Bournemouth     27   34  -12       4.72    74.53     0.97    54.53     6.02   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    6.33R    0.51  
Blackpool       28   33  -12      -3.18    34.77    -8.73    55.61     5.78   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    3.43R    0.20  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.87    14.23    -2.15    63.19     6.54    10.08     0.00     0.09     8.44     2.24P    0.35R    0.02  
Birmingham      27   29   -3      -8.71    12.48    -4.04    54.70     6.16    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    5.02R    0.31  
Bolton          27   28  -12      -7.43    15.96    -9.44    54.73     6.18   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    5.93R    0.50  
Doncaster       28   28  -18      -0.16    50.33    -2.61    46.45     5.65   -27.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.53R    8.17  
Sheff_Wed       26   27   -1      -6.46    19.11     2.07    52.81     6.26    -3.30     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    9.07R    0.95  
Millwall        27   26  -23      -2.86    35.77   -10.37    46.25     5.79   -31.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.95R    9.64  
Charlton        26   24  -12      -8.27    12.77    -7.43    49.19     6.12   -14.95     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   23.23R    3.63  
Barnsley        26   21  -19      -6.26    18.94    -5.98    40.81     5.89   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.25R   35.43  
Yeovil          26   20  -18      -3.54    31.55     0.93    40.04     5.94   -29.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.32R   40.59  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Bradford 0 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       28   62  +24      13.31    95.70     8.58    92.93     5.94    33.28    33.20    65.95    99.92    76.41P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   27   60  +34      12.38    94.91    17.91    92.97     6.18    44.51    37.72    68.92    99.89    78.25P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   58  +27       3.84    68.33     3.54    91.86     5.84    40.85    28.54    61.54    99.87    76.99P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         27   49   +9       9.19    88.43     4.82    77.97     6.16    13.32     0.37     2.11    78.88    17.58P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       28   48  +12       9.05    86.67    11.73    71.82     6.07    10.21     0.04     0.30    42.00     6.37P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.17    65.44     5.42    71.71     5.80    13.52     0.01     0.13    42.65     9.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.49    42.84    -4.39    75.41     6.06    17.16     0.10     0.91    67.58    18.78P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         28   41   +8      -5.22    25.30    -3.81    70.71     6.05    15.46     0.01     0.14    37.57    10.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.57    80.55     3.48    64.35     6.50    -5.80     0.00     0.01     9.02     1.38P    0.54R    0.01  
MK_Dons         27   36   +0      -5.78    22.98    -7.07    64.15     6.25     3.02     0.00     0.00     8.81     2.09P    0.32R    0.01  
Coventry        27   34   +8       2.08    60.38     0.61    63.85     6.37    13.72     0.00     0.01     9.15     2.20P    0.50R    0.01  
Bradford        27   34   +6       0.79    54.56    11.60    57.33     6.11     1.75     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.16P    4.50R    0.24  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.65    54.25     4.62    59.01     6.33    -2.91     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.32P    3.09R    0.17  
Gillingham      28   32  -11       0.70    54.42     0.41    53.15     5.94   -16.85     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   17.61R    1.76  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.18    49.92    -0.02    57.29     6.49    -8.82     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.16P    6.63R    0.54  
Oldham          28   30   -9      -2.28    39.03     0.25    51.38     5.86   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   24.62R    2.92  
Carlisle        27   30  -16       0.33    52.73    -3.58    50.50     5.91   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   32.61R    4.77  
Tranmere        28   28  -19      -4.83    27.06   -10.37    49.76     5.88   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   36.30R    5.83  
Notts_County    29   27  -11     -11.02     8.16    -7.92    49.22     5.76   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   36.23R    5.97  
Crewe           28   27  -27      -0.09    50.77    -8.04    44.15     5.58   -39.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.85R   29.67  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.05     6.95   -11.07    54.41     6.40    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P   12.90R    1.40  
Shrewsbury      28   26  -11      -6.43    19.87    -2.25    47.15     5.76   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.21R   11.50  
Bristol_City    27   24   -7     -13.00     4.71    -6.39    51.38     6.39    -5.23     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   24.77R    4.24  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.87    20.84    -8.05    43.85     6.09   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.31R   30.97  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         28   51  +19       2.87    63.96     4.99    81.86     5.97    27.94    34.67    73.16    98.59    81.54P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           28   50  +14       2.43    61.53     0.57    80.76     6.03    22.82    26.32    65.06    97.59    75.45P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   48  +13       7.99    84.79     8.52    76.78     6.21    16.98     9.88    38.29    90.86    50.77P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.89    77.46     3.94    76.87     6.35    15.62    10.13    38.86    89.99    51.55P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   46  +15       3.94    69.44     7.65    74.84     6.11    19.15     6.24    28.33    85.66    43.80P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             27   46  +12       3.10    65.51     3.46    76.97     6.18    19.14    10.47    40.32    91.46    55.28P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   46   +4       8.28    85.83     2.77    71.80     6.15     3.77     2.03    12.86    67.64    23.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       25   38   +5       8.26    86.83    11.76    63.63     6.67     0.37     0.19     1.80    21.39     4.82P    0.51R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   38   +0       3.79    69.24     5.88    59.93     5.86    -3.82     0.01     0.18     7.11     1.36P    1.40R    0.32  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.52    58.24    -1.51    60.64     5.88    -6.80     0.02     0.24     7.87     1.66P    1.09R    0.29  
Dag_&_Red            28   36   +0      -0.45    48.27     2.63    59.94     5.98    -0.96     0.00     0.16     7.41     1.65P    1.56R    0.40  
Plymouth             27   35   -6       1.76    59.84    -1.61    58.47     5.92    -8.93     0.00     0.07     4.13     0.80P    2.96R    0.93  
Cheltenham           27   34   -4      -3.28    33.97    -4.53    59.40     6.17    -4.74     0.02     0.20     6.41     1.62P    2.50R    0.75  
Hartlepool           28   34   -5      -4.97    26.81    -6.20    59.08     6.00    -4.09     0.00     0.13     5.43     1.49P    2.38R    0.64  
Exeter               27   33   -4      -3.89    31.01    -3.92    59.21     6.16    -3.68     0.00     0.15     6.20     1.57P    2.52R    0.76  
York                 29   32   -4      -3.12    35.14     1.98    52.71     5.59    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.07P   14.77R    5.46  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.72    46.91     0.08    54.59     5.99   -10.99     0.00     0.01     1.26     0.24P   10.91R    4.04  
Portsmouth           28   32   -8      -9.39    12.31   -12.53    58.67     6.06    -5.16     0.00     0.08     4.94     1.39P    3.06R    0.98  
Mansfield            28   31   -9      -0.09    50.58     1.63    51.97     5.93   -14.14     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.06P   21.60R    9.19  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30   -3      -4.69    27.35    -0.17    53.86     6.03    -5.84     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.19P   12.29R    4.86  
Wycombe              27   29   -5      -6.46    20.18    -2.97    53.22     6.13    -7.57     0.00     0.01     0.89     0.20P   15.07R    6.25  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.44    13.38    -5.25    56.27     6.56    -2.68     0.00     0.06     3.26     0.92P    7.50R    2.87  
Torquay              27   26  -14      -6.71    19.07    -8.01    49.01     6.03   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   39.95R   21.01  
Northampton          26   22  -16      -8.59    11.60    -9.16    45.97     6.22   -20.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   59.92R   41.16  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Cambridge_Utd 1 2 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.77    81.70    12.84    94.73     5.66    53.17    77.30    99.94    85.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.27    91.32    14.62    88.14     5.73    37.09    18.77    98.73    42.73P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.60    95.41     4.35    74.10     5.41    -1.14     0.11    40.88     4.66P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.80    64.40     0.59    81.85     6.14    25.41     3.54    87.18    29.12P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.33    66.21     5.16    69.82     5.44    10.33     0.01    18.32     3.29P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         30   47   +0       8.98    87.41     4.74    67.47     5.28    -2.08     0.00     7.88     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    28   46   +6      -0.47    47.35    -6.96    74.59     5.85    12.11     0.16    47.80    11.76P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          31   45   +9       2.03    59.66     8.94    66.55     5.47    10.34     0.00     7.58     1.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.71    27.78    -6.20    70.25     5.50    12.07     0.00    20.97     5.48P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        27   43   +2       8.46    86.50     6.10    66.88     6.20    -1.66     0.01     9.65     1.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -7.05    18.38    -7.74    68.91     5.63    12.38     0.01    15.62     4.18P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.72    53.99     0.98    66.76     6.11     5.33     0.01     9.61     1.74P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.14    33.96     3.13    69.39     6.14    18.00     0.05    20.30     4.75P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          29   39   +2       1.67    58.64     6.10    60.71     5.78    -0.63     0.00     1.09     0.20P    0.30R    0.00  
Hereford         29   39   +2      -4.97    26.58    -4.24    62.61     5.57     2.74     0.00     1.82     0.43P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.33    67.69     7.40    67.10     6.40     8.44     0.02    11.72     2.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   33   -8      -2.64    37.13    -1.52    55.20     5.60    -9.90     0.00     0.07     0.01P    2.72R    0.00  
Woking           28   33   -9      -1.57    42.51    -2.08    51.55     5.59   -19.68     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.83R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -7.28    18.05    -6.86    60.67     5.65    16.66     0.00     0.81     0.25P    0.30R    0.00  
Chester          28   28  -16       0.36    53.34     0.25    47.66     5.61   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.51R    0.00  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.48    48.46    -2.87    48.18     5.74   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.73R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.21    29.33    -6.65    45.22     5.42   -29.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.47R    0.01  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.73    12.34   -10.08    41.07     5.31   -32.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.02R    0.05  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.53     0.51   -20.01    17.86     4.53   -77.33     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10