Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 28 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Crystal_Palace 1 0 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          23   52  +24       6.90    85.35     2.53    80.09     5.07    35.98    18.20    47.31    76.58    92.30    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.62    58.92     6.52    84.08     4.87    59.70    55.64    81.42    94.20    98.58    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       6.02    82.58     2.49    80.70     5.20    38.30    22.04    53.54    79.85    93.76    99.59     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   46  +29       1.11    56.02     6.66    74.55     5.27    41.77     3.66    14.45    35.70    68.81    95.73     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.76    88.10    -4.11    68.48     5.45     8.16     0.29     1.58     5.73    17.56    68.09     0.00     0.00  
Everton          23   42  +11       4.42    74.17     2.44    66.54     5.22    16.83     0.06     0.58     2.46     9.68    55.76     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   40  +11      -3.68    28.42    -8.12    68.63     5.09    24.05     0.12     1.13     5.46    19.01    74.66     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        23   37   +4       6.46    82.94     6.57    57.44     5.15     3.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.30     5.78     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      23   32   +4       1.85    61.43     7.19    52.40     5.22     3.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.91     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea          23   24   -4      -4.54    25.23     1.49    43.97     5.10    -5.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.25R    0.25  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.89    45.51     1.92    43.52     5.22   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.38R    0.43  
Norwich          23   24  -17      -0.55    47.74    -4.70    38.27     4.84   -27.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.65R    4.43  
Hull             23   23   -7      -0.30    49.15     6.32    38.41     5.03   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.46R    3.62  
Crystal_Palace   23   23  -16       2.43    66.72     2.17    34.52     4.53   -30.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.71R   16.26  
West_Brom        22   22   -5      -5.81    18.73    -0.40    42.58     5.36    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.14R    0.83  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.75    40.03    -3.70    39.60     5.16   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.03R    2.82  
Fulham           23   19  -28      -4.13    26.66   -12.46    34.29     4.93   -38.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.45R   20.63  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.81    11.10    -3.53    35.46     5.11   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.35R   11.68  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.41    16.17    -6.23    35.07     4.95   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.23R   13.79  
Cardiff          23   18  -23      -1.99    38.66    -3.04    33.36     4.91   -31.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.35R   25.27  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Barnsley 2 2 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       28   63  +23      13.38    96.09     5.87    94.59     5.78    33.56    77.59    93.91    99.98    95.54P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             27   55  +16       9.35    89.43     3.57    86.22     6.07    23.51    14.27    55.04    98.29    67.52P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   52  +19       8.32    86.70     9.05    81.83     6.10    24.68     4.93    25.99    93.25    42.72P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   51  +17       7.42    82.47     9.08    79.67     5.97    23.21     2.21    15.74    88.83    32.03P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.30    71.71     6.87    74.90     6.27    18.31     0.59     4.86    65.79    18.83P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         28   44  +11      -2.13    39.34    -0.79    74.19     5.96    19.59     0.34     3.41    63.59    20.72P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   40   +8       1.30    57.08     7.38    65.21     5.88     8.81     0.00     0.05    11.22     2.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton        27   40   +7      -1.67    41.20    -0.11    69.79     5.99    12.55     0.04     0.56    32.16     8.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   39   +0      -0.36    48.34    -1.57    63.48     5.88    -0.14     0.00     0.03     6.06     1.26P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   37   +6      -2.29    38.77     4.62    62.81     5.94     7.70     0.00     0.02     6.00     1.28P    0.14R    0.00  
Wigan           26   37   +2      -3.17    34.02    -4.72    67.42     6.31     6.74     0.03     0.31    19.63     5.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    27   36   +0       0.07    50.90     1.73    61.57     6.03    -0.71     0.00     0.02     3.77     0.70P    0.28R    0.01  
Huddersfield    27   34   +3      -0.88    45.71     6.02    58.70     6.11     0.90     0.00     0.00     1.71     0.28P    1.02R    0.04  
Bournemouth     27   34  -12       4.63    73.57     0.79    54.56     6.07   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03P    6.52R    0.47  
Blackpool       28   33  -12      -3.20    34.42    -8.77    55.62     5.73   -15.02     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    3.31R    0.19  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.77    14.70    -1.95    63.12     6.57     9.97     0.00     0.06     8.41     2.29P    0.33R    0.02  
Birmingham      27   29   -3      -8.75    12.01    -4.16    54.71     6.11    -3.37     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    4.98R    0.28  
Bolton          27   28  -12      -7.60    15.71    -9.73    54.82     6.22   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    5.81R    0.48  
Doncaster       28   28  -18      -0.22    50.01    -2.73    46.52     5.68   -27.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.92R    8.08  
Sheff_Wed       26   27   -1      -6.26    19.91     2.32    52.68     6.23    -3.50     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    9.60R    0.99  
Millwall        27   26  -23      -2.72    36.25   -10.18    46.22     5.79   -32.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.34R    9.80  
Charlton        26   24  -12      -8.35    12.44    -7.54    49.26     6.10   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    22.84R    3.44  
Barnsley        26   21  -19      -6.31    18.77    -6.02    40.83     5.91   -30.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.40R   35.27  
Yeovil          26   20  -18      -3.54    31.64     0.97    40.03     5.94   -29.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.38R   40.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Bradford 0 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       28   62  +24      13.26    95.83     8.46    92.95     5.90    33.32    32.89    65.73    99.95    76.12P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   27   60  +34      12.28    94.87    17.69    93.10     6.19    44.68    38.19    69.42    99.90    78.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   58  +27       3.81    68.48     3.56    91.87     5.82    40.88    28.35    61.43    99.89    77.03P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         27   49   +9       9.19    88.36     4.82    77.97     6.21    13.34     0.42     2.14    78.94    17.73P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       28   48  +12       9.28    87.05    12.08    71.62     6.07     9.97     0.03     0.23    41.58     6.41P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         29   46  +10       3.07    65.25     5.28    71.74     5.78    13.54     0.01     0.13    43.23     8.98P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.32    43.62    -4.10    75.24     6.14    16.87     0.11     0.80    66.61    18.19P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         28   41   +8      -5.25    25.10    -3.88    70.74     6.06    15.50     0.00     0.10    38.34    10.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.68    80.74     3.64    64.25     6.49    -5.93     0.00     0.01     8.88     1.25P    0.46R    0.01  
MK_Dons         27   36   +0      -5.58    23.77    -6.76    64.08     6.29     2.89     0.00     0.00     8.83     2.09P    0.34R    0.00  
Coventry        27   34   +8       2.04    60.32     0.57    63.87     6.34    13.75     0.00     0.00     9.11     2.12P    0.51R    0.01  
Bradford        27   34   +6       0.61    53.78    11.35    57.55     6.13     1.99     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.19P    4.25R    0.23  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.74    54.64     4.76    58.92     6.30    -3.05     0.00     0.00     1.90     0.32P    3.20R    0.15  
Gillingham      28   32  -11       0.38    53.04    -0.04    53.32     5.95   -16.60     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   17.07R    1.84  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5       0.01    50.80     0.28    57.05     6.46    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.16P    6.96R    0.50  
Oldham          28   30   -9      -2.32    38.73     0.20    51.38     5.86   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   24.91R    2.86  
Carlisle        27   30  -16       0.34    52.75    -3.62    50.53     5.97   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   32.56R    4.78  
Tranmere        28   28  -19      -4.80    27.00   -10.31    49.66     5.87   -23.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    36.97R    6.07  
Notts_County    29   27  -11     -10.98     8.25    -7.86    49.22     5.77   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   36.61R    5.92  
Crewe           28   27  -27      -0.19    50.37    -8.10    44.23     5.63   -39.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.53R   29.56  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.05     6.86   -11.08    54.48     6.38    -7.33     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P   12.78R    1.46  
Shrewsbury      28   26  -11      -6.40    20.28    -2.19    47.18     5.82   -16.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.11R   12.09  
Bristol_City    27   24   -7     -13.10     4.58    -6.65    51.53     6.42    -4.99     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P   24.46R    4.05  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.87    21.03    -8.09    43.89     6.09   -28.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.28R   30.48  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         28   51  +19       3.01    64.88     5.14    81.80     5.96    27.85    34.05    72.85    98.57    81.32P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           28   50  +14       2.30    61.05     0.40    80.86     6.05    22.95    26.76    65.89    97.68    76.04P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   48  +13       8.14    85.03     8.78    76.68     6.25    16.85     9.69    37.55    90.42    49.58P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.76    76.84     3.76    76.96     6.36    15.78    10.23    39.20    90.21    52.26P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   46  +15       3.95    69.73     7.63    74.84     6.10    19.16     6.21    28.16    85.50    43.51P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             27   46  +12       2.93    64.55     3.25    77.09     6.16    19.27    10.75    40.84    91.82    55.91P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   46   +4       8.30    85.57     2.81    71.77     6.18     3.71     2.09    12.56    67.15    23.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       25   38   +5       8.25    86.72    11.76    63.57     6.66     0.30     0.17     1.66    20.99     4.59P    0.56R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   38   +0       3.66    68.62     5.64    60.06     5.88    -3.64     0.01     0.18     7.32     1.43P    1.29R    0.28  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.36    57.46    -1.68    60.64     5.91    -6.76     0.01     0.21     8.00     1.74P    1.11R    0.27  
Dag_&_Red            28   36   +0      -0.50    47.99     2.56    60.06     5.98    -0.83     0.00     0.19     7.70     1.84P    1.62R    0.46  
Plymouth             27   35   -6       1.74    59.89    -1.64    58.45     5.95    -8.94     0.00     0.07     4.18     0.91P    3.12R    0.85  
Cheltenham           27   34   -4      -3.12    34.63    -4.29    59.21     6.17    -5.03     0.00     0.18     6.02     1.51P    2.59R    0.85  
Hartlepool           28   34   -5      -4.86    27.41    -6.08    59.15     6.00    -4.05     0.01     0.13     5.60     1.52P    2.26R    0.68  
Exeter               27   33   -4      -3.88    31.02    -3.87    59.23     6.15    -3.64     0.00     0.14     6.28     1.51P    2.56R    0.71  
York                 29   32   -4      -2.96    35.79     2.21    52.64     5.59    -7.52     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.09P   14.72R    5.31  
Accrington_Stanley   27   32   -6      -0.76    46.71     0.01    54.51     6.03   -11.12     0.00     0.02     1.18     0.20P   11.25R    4.18  
Portsmouth           28   32   -8      -9.54    11.90   -12.72    58.78     6.11    -4.97     0.01     0.07     5.33     1.61P    2.90R    0.90  
Mansfield            28   31   -9      -0.25    49.92     1.43    52.04     5.93   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P   21.03R    9.01  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30   -3      -4.71    27.25    -0.13    53.86     6.03    -5.87     0.00     0.01     0.99     0.20P   12.06R    4.60  
Wycombe              27   29   -5      -6.29    20.59    -2.70    53.14     6.13    -7.68     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.19P   15.24R    6.24  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.43    13.50    -5.27    56.34     6.54    -2.59     0.00     0.07     3.26     0.90P    7.38R    2.86  
Torquay              27   26  -14      -6.60    19.25    -7.85    48.94     6.06   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   40.14R   21.44  
Northampton          26   22  -16      -8.60    11.77    -9.15    45.88     6.20   -20.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   60.17R   41.25  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2014, Cambridge_Utd 1 2 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.68    81.37    12.66    94.79     5.61    53.26    77.82    99.96    86.29P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    28   57  +27      10.38    91.54    14.76    88.05     5.74    36.99    18.24    98.73    42.18P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.68    95.31     4.56    74.07     5.41    -1.22     0.12    40.69     4.66P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   48  +15       2.80    64.57     0.65    81.77     6.15    25.25     3.52    87.06    29.26P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.34    66.35     5.16    69.84     5.44    10.31     0.00    18.38     3.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         30   47   +0       8.90    86.94     4.62    67.53     5.32    -2.03     0.01     8.13     1.14P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    28   46   +6      -0.49    47.33    -7.00    74.66     5.87    12.21     0.21    48.24    11.84P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          31   45   +9       1.97    59.81     8.82    66.59     5.46    10.41     0.00     7.62     1.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.52    28.78    -5.92    70.15     5.51    11.92     0.01    20.29     5.19P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        27   43   +2       8.44    86.42     6.04    66.93     6.13    -1.59     0.01     9.51     1.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   42   +7      -7.09    17.81    -7.81    68.87     5.62    12.40     0.02    15.33     4.13P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.69    53.79     0.92    66.74     6.13     5.33     0.00     9.60     1.69P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.29    33.15     2.86    69.45     6.13    18.13     0.03    20.46     4.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          29   39   +2       1.91    59.98     6.52    60.61     5.71    -0.82     0.00     0.95     0.14P    0.26R    0.00  
Hereford         29   39   +2      -5.06    26.18    -4.37    62.67     5.59     2.80     0.00     1.89     0.41P    0.09R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.07    66.89     7.04    67.28     6.37     8.70     0.02    12.41     2.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   33   -8      -2.57    37.22    -1.40    55.15     5.61    -9.96     0.00     0.07     0.01P    2.89R    0.00  
Woking           28   33   -9      -1.53    42.58    -2.12    51.57     5.58   -19.69     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.79R    0.00  
Aldershot        29   30   +5      -6.99    19.22    -6.36    60.47     5.70    16.33     0.00     0.68     0.21P    0.40R    0.00  
Chester          28   28  -16       0.33    53.21     0.23    47.67     5.60   -23.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.54R    0.01  
Tamworth         27   27  -18      -0.49    48.41    -2.90    48.20     5.77   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.63R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.25    29.21    -6.71    45.25     5.39   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.61R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.92    11.67   -10.38    41.16     5.28   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.73R    0.07  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.51     0.52   -19.88    17.86     4.54   -77.37     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.91  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10