Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 27 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 January 2014, West_Brom 1 1 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.49    88.16     2.83    80.96     5.26    36.72    22.45    53.45    82.06    93.78    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.49    58.26     6.25    84.06     4.91    59.68    53.22    80.54    94.67    98.58    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       5.93    82.26     2.34    80.78     5.21    38.54    21.75    53.12    81.79    93.89    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.70    53.48     4.86    72.83     5.55    37.49     2.04     8.99    24.98    56.02    90.37     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.65    87.79    -4.28    68.48     5.47     8.16     0.20     1.46     5.89    19.05    66.30     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   42  +15       4.29    74.13     4.13    68.22     5.40    21.26     0.22     1.45     5.66    19.25    66.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +9      -4.10    26.29    -8.11    68.16     5.25    24.02     0.12     0.98     4.87    18.83    69.23     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.73    84.46     6.54    57.94     5.39     3.20     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.57     7.10     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       2.08    62.90     6.91    52.29     5.46     2.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.05     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.83    45.86     2.01    43.40     5.26   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.42R    0.42  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.77    56.10     6.92    39.86     5.23   -13.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.10R    2.12  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.17    50.23    -4.52    38.62     5.12   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.08R    4.16  
West_Brom        22   22   -5      -5.80    18.55    -0.43    42.58     5.42    -7.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.38R    0.79  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.59    40.82    -3.62    39.52     5.15   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.26R    2.62  
Swansea          22   21   -6      -5.28    21.18     0.87    42.54     5.32    -7.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.03R    0.75  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       0.98    57.87     1.50    32.81     4.80   -31.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.55R   27.72  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.63    29.05   -11.88    35.42     5.16   -36.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.08R   14.40  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.62    11.55    -3.30    35.43     5.11   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.50R   11.18  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.26    16.66    -6.00    35.01     4.93   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.70R   13.31  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.68    40.31    -3.00    33.68     5.04   -31.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.86R   22.54  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2014, Blackburn 1 1 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       27   60  +22      12.06    94.66     5.34    92.99     6.03    32.57    71.47    90.46    99.93    93.15P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.15    86.52     3.24    85.13     6.28    23.28    15.40    50.05    97.26    64.15P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.72    88.14     9.10    82.59     6.30    25.27     9.10    33.88    94.40    49.44P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   48  +16       6.63    80.23     9.40    78.93     6.15    23.65     2.80    15.85    86.29    31.78P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.34    72.07     6.90    74.87     6.28    18.24     0.79     5.49    66.31    19.70P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         27   41   +7      -1.92    40.28    -1.87    72.20     6.18    14.92     0.25     2.31    49.48    15.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         27   39   +8       1.62    58.77     7.26    65.32     6.08     8.43     0.01     0.14    12.80     2.57P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.55    41.64    -0.37    69.94     6.21    12.29     0.11     0.97    34.45     9.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   38   +0       0.08    50.56    -1.48    63.96     6.07     0.09     0.01     0.06     7.86     1.68P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   36   +6      -1.98    40.17     4.53    63.51     6.20     8.19     0.00     0.06     8.78     1.90P    0.14R    0.00  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.10    33.85    -5.11    67.62     6.57     6.51     0.07     0.58    22.19     6.23P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.45    52.94     1.73    62.26     6.29    -0.27     0.00     0.05     5.67     1.15P    0.29R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.24    51.98     6.63    60.27     6.31     2.23     0.00     0.01     3.44     0.62P    0.70R    0.06  
Blackpool       27   33   -8      -3.28    33.89    -7.15    56.98     5.99   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.13P    2.09R    0.09  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.77    14.62    -1.97    63.05     6.57     9.87     0.00     0.09     8.61     2.30P    0.32R    0.02  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.36    68.53     0.34    52.78     6.23   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   11.13R    1.22  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.79    14.54    -3.79    56.14     6.35    -2.25     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.17P    3.36R    0.21  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.68    18.47    -9.34    55.49     6.38   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.11P    4.95R    0.42  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -5.94    20.45     2.27    53.13     6.45    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    9.07R    1.02  
Doncaster       27   25  -21      -0.69    47.37    -3.91    44.01     5.78   -31.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.55R   16.79  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.40    37.45   -10.33    46.68     6.02   -31.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.24R    8.94  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.88    13.48    -5.85    51.32     6.35   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   14.45R    1.76  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.84    35.10     0.59    40.45     6.06   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.74R   36.69  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.97    19.39    -6.16    41.12     6.08   -30.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.83R   32.76  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2014, Notts_County 1 5 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       27   59  +22      12.66    95.26     8.09    91.51     6.15    31.60    33.43    65.67    99.78    75.56P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.52    93.85    17.07    91.40     6.46    42.59    37.01    67.63    99.66    76.75P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   27   55  +24       3.58    67.31     2.64    90.25     6.09    37.83    28.19    59.50    99.59    74.73P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.59    89.73     4.85    78.51     6.42    13.59     1.04     4.55    79.26    19.74P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       27   45  +11       7.75    83.33    11.27    70.01     6.36     8.96     0.04     0.32    30.92     5.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         28   45  +10       3.43    67.27     5.26    72.15     6.01    13.61     0.04     0.38    44.31     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.34    43.52    -4.14    75.36     6.11    17.07     0.20     1.51    65.72    18.63P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         27   40   +8      -4.74    27.03    -3.72    70.99     6.19    15.34     0.04     0.33    38.51    10.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.49    80.15     3.36    64.45     6.50    -5.62     0.00     0.02     8.76     1.33P    0.43R    0.01  
MK_Dons         26   36   +3      -5.02    25.83    -5.03    66.55     6.51     7.55     0.00     0.06    16.41     4.00P    0.15R    0.00  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.69    63.32     1.30    65.11     6.50    15.55     0.00     0.04    12.29     2.95P    0.37R    0.01  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.65    53.93     4.62    58.96     6.29    -2.96     0.00     0.00     1.86     0.33P    3.02R    0.12  
Bradford        26   33   +6       1.08    56.31    11.63    57.69     6.33     1.59     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.20P    4.52R    0.33  
Gillingham      28   32  -11       0.53    53.73     0.16    53.20     5.92   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   17.33R    1.66  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.18    49.81    -0.05    57.17     6.46    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.15P    6.67R    0.44  
Oldham          27   30   -6      -2.17    39.09     1.36    52.56     6.06   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   19.34R    1.97  
Tranmere        27   28  -18      -3.72    31.55    -9.84    51.27     6.10   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   28.26R    3.75  
Notts_County    29   27  -11     -11.02     8.42    -7.94    49.32     5.77   -12.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.89R    5.59  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.63    47.80    -5.47    47.82     6.10   -30.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    51.13R   11.69  
Crewe           28   27  -27      -0.15    50.49    -8.13    44.13     5.59   -39.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.52R   29.22  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.06     6.83   -11.08    54.44     6.40    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07P   13.03R    1.42  
Shrewsbury      28   26  -11      -6.47    20.01    -2.34    47.30     5.78   -15.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    50.63R   11.18  
Bristol_City    26   24   -5     -12.49     5.42    -5.85    52.61     6.57    -3.41     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   20.32R    2.96  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.83    21.38    -8.03    43.89     6.11   -28.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.36R   29.65  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 January 2014, Scunthorpe 0 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           28   50  +14       2.35    60.98     0.45    80.81     6.04    22.92    27.65    65.90    97.54    76.03P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   48  +17       2.20    61.04     4.30    80.20     6.17    25.90    25.80    63.40    96.90    74.08P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   48  +13       8.06    85.19     8.64    76.70     6.27    16.90    10.68    38.44    90.26    50.42P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.80    76.71     3.82    76.92     6.40    15.70    11.30    39.54    89.80    51.96P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   46   +4       8.24    85.67     2.73    71.77     6.13     3.69     2.22    12.67    66.90    23.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   45  +15       4.35    71.60     7.72    75.18     6.32    19.11     8.00    31.43    85.46    45.69P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.38    67.21     3.33    77.64     6.35    19.54    14.06    45.07    92.26    59.11P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       25   38   +5       8.49    87.32    12.10    63.53     6.67     0.23     0.21     1.78    20.46     4.68P    0.51R    0.10  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.55    58.28    -1.35    60.56     5.88    -6.92     0.01     0.27     7.58     1.67P    1.15R    0.27  
Dag_&_Red            27   35   +0      -0.19    49.49     2.51    60.15     6.14    -1.24     0.01     0.29     8.02     1.95P    1.67R    0.41  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   35   -1       2.38    62.97     5.15    58.09     6.05    -5.06     0.00     0.11     4.28     0.87P    3.22R    0.95  
Plymouth             27   35   -6       1.78    60.17    -1.57    58.45     5.94    -8.99     0.01     0.08     4.04     0.77P    2.95R    0.78  
Cheltenham           27   34   -4      -3.30    33.55    -4.54    59.37     6.13    -4.83     0.01     0.17     6.18     1.50P    2.35R    0.73  
Hartlepool           27   34   -4      -4.01    30.52    -5.77    60.85     6.23    -2.52     0.02     0.34     9.75     2.72P    1.38R    0.37  
York                 28   32   -2      -2.52    37.84     2.94    54.08     5.83    -5.44     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.21P   10.56R    3.73  
Exeter               26   32   -4      -3.72    31.81    -4.16    59.67     6.43    -3.52     0.01     0.27     7.86     2.07P    2.51R    0.75  
Mansfield            28   31   -9      -0.24    50.00     1.46    52.03     5.88   -14.08     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P   20.93R    8.80  
Bristol_Rovers       26   30   -2      -3.68    31.52     0.42    55.83     6.27    -4.04     0.00     0.04     2.40     0.56P    7.57R    2.83  
Wycombe              26   29   -4      -5.55    23.59    -2.54    54.86     6.37    -6.26     0.00     0.04     1.85     0.43P   10.42R    3.98  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.15    39.56    -0.52    52.36     6.20   -12.90     0.00     0.01     0.64     0.13P   20.46R    8.97  
Portsmouth           27   29   -9     -10.48     9.63   -12.74    56.75     6.38    -6.59     0.00     0.06     3.06     0.93P    6.62R    2.39  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.47    13.65    -5.34    56.32     6.58    -2.61     0.00     0.09     3.31     1.02P    7.57R    2.90  
Torquay              27   26  -14      -6.63    19.27    -7.90    48.94     6.05   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   40.47R   21.44  
Northampton          26   22  -16      -8.66    11.62    -9.18    45.99     6.20   -20.66     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   59.68R   40.58  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2014, Aldershot 2 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.79    81.83    12.88    94.70     5.62    53.15    71.35    99.96    82.20P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    27   57  +28      11.54    94.24    15.39    90.07     5.93    38.94    26.57    99.39    48.91P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.77    95.57     4.71    74.01     5.42    -1.34     0.11    42.59     4.88P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.30    65.99     5.18    69.73     5.47    10.14     0.00    18.95     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.32    56.92    -0.09    79.57     6.37    23.44     1.69    78.74    24.52P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          31   45   +9       2.02    59.75     8.91    66.57     5.45    10.39     0.00     8.10     1.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.51    28.82    -5.87    70.17     5.48    11.95     0.01    21.55     5.62P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    27   45   +6      -0.10    49.22    -7.00    74.74     6.05    11.74     0.21    50.39    12.53P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         29   44   -1       7.57    83.72     4.07    65.61     5.46    -3.44     0.00     5.21     0.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        27   43   +2       8.53    86.80     6.15    66.86     6.13    -1.63     0.01     9.94     1.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.63    53.39     0.82    66.79     6.09     5.38     0.01    10.32     1.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.31    33.05     2.86    69.44     6.16    18.11     0.01    21.91     5.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          28   39   +5      -7.66    15.88    -8.20    68.07     5.77    11.64     0.00    13.90     3.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          29   39   +2       1.83    59.56     6.31    60.65     5.75    -0.72     0.00     1.11     0.16P    0.28R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.24    67.75     7.27    67.13     6.39     8.45     0.02    12.64     2.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         28   38   +2      -4.53    27.94    -4.14    63.26     5.79     3.17     0.00     3.06     0.67P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   33   -8      -2.70    36.84    -1.61    55.20     5.62    -9.89     0.00     0.06     0.01P    2.83R    0.00  
Woking           28   33   -9      -1.70    41.71    -2.31    51.61     5.56   -19.58     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.02R    0.00  
Aldershot        28   30   +6      -6.13    21.45    -6.19    62.35     5.86    18.14     0.00     2.15     0.68P    0.21R    0.00  
Chester          28   28  -16       0.34    53.34     0.24    47.66     5.59   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.37R    0.00  
Tamworth         26   27  -16      -0.13    50.15    -2.53    48.92     5.88   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.54R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.32    28.98    -6.83    45.31     5.43   -29.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.35R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.72    12.12   -10.13    41.05     5.29   -32.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.29R    0.03  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.51     0.51   -19.88    17.82     4.51   -77.38     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.96  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10