Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 25 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 January 2014, West_Brom 1 1 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.53    88.37     2.97    80.97     5.31    36.74    22.68    53.43    81.71    93.61    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.48    57.97     6.19    84.13     4.90    59.70    53.50    81.12    94.78    98.67    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       5.95    82.21     2.31    80.74     5.22    38.43    21.29    52.69    82.03    93.87    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.76    53.79     4.99    72.82     5.50    37.50     1.97     8.96    24.94    56.29    90.53     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.75    87.99    -4.15    68.42     5.47     8.08     0.24     1.45     5.80    18.82    66.26     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   42  +15       4.44    74.73     4.33    68.09     5.39    21.06     0.19     1.34     5.46    18.99    66.18     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +9      -4.29    25.08    -8.45    68.22     5.23    24.11     0.14     1.00     5.19    19.14    69.74     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.84    84.69     6.70    57.97     5.41     3.24     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.57     7.28     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       1.94    62.25     6.76    52.33     5.48     2.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.06     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.81    46.46     2.03    43.44     5.24   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.44R    0.38  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.80    56.45     6.94    39.87     5.25   -13.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.13R    2.22  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.29    49.42    -4.77    38.63     5.12   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.77R    4.21  
West_Brom        22   22   -5      -5.72    19.21    -0.30    42.58     5.38    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.09R    0.79  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.75    39.79    -3.82    39.58     5.19   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.45R    2.59  
Swansea          22   21   -6      -5.31    20.79     0.83    42.65     5.35    -6.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.94R    0.73  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       1.04    58.64     1.58    32.73     4.74   -31.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.10R   28.06  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.55    29.54   -11.72    35.33     5.12   -36.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.57R   14.64  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.64    11.56    -3.29    35.36     5.12   -19.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.57R   11.16  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.36    16.56    -6.13    35.06     4.97   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.33R   13.01  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.66    40.89    -3.00    33.71     5.06   -31.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.58R   22.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2014, Blackburn 1 1 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       27   60  +22      12.05    94.71     5.33    93.01     6.03    32.61    71.63    90.54    99.92    93.08P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.25    86.83     3.33    85.07     6.25    23.19    15.16    49.58    97.28    63.71P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.76    88.07     9.18    82.53     6.32    25.19     8.94    33.88    94.03    48.84P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   48  +16       6.41    79.52     9.09    79.07     6.15    23.80     2.91    15.88    86.52    32.20P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.07    70.58     6.51    75.01     6.27    18.48     0.90     5.98    67.23    20.49P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         27   41   +7      -1.75    41.04    -1.68    72.19     6.24    14.90     0.28     2.25    49.46    15.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         27   39   +8       1.45    57.75     7.02    65.43     6.12     8.59     0.01     0.16    13.33     2.80P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.40    42.79    -0.19    69.81     6.19    12.10     0.11     0.94    33.46     9.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   38   +0       0.16    51.30    -1.36    63.92     6.07     0.03     0.00     0.04     7.52     1.52P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   36   +6      -1.92    40.43     4.65    63.50     6.19     8.14     0.00     0.08     8.66     1.97P    0.15R    0.01  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.16    33.73    -5.24    67.76     6.54     6.69     0.06     0.54    22.70     6.38P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.49    53.01     1.74    62.23     6.32    -0.32     0.00     0.03     5.60     1.04P    0.31R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.28    52.09     6.70    60.17     6.37     2.12     0.00     0.02     3.41     0.64P    0.70R    0.03  
Blackpool       27   33   -8      -3.36    33.40    -7.24    57.04     5.96   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.14P    1.97R    0.07  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.73    14.62    -1.91    62.98     6.53     9.76     0.00     0.08     8.46     2.16P    0.29R    0.01  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.51    69.27     0.60    52.65     6.25   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   11.48R    1.16  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.76    14.86    -3.74    56.14     6.38    -2.24     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.17P    3.45R    0.23  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.75    18.30    -9.42    55.51     6.36   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.10P    4.72R    0.37  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -6.00    20.43     2.22    53.19     6.47    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    8.94R    0.95  
Doncaster       27   25  -21      -0.73    47.25    -3.97    44.07     5.84   -31.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.86R   16.60  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.34    38.17   -10.27    46.61     5.98   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.72R    8.79  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.91    13.45    -5.94    51.37     6.38   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   14.23R    1.78  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.77    35.70     0.71    40.35     6.05   -30.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.27R   37.70  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.95    19.74    -6.11    41.14     6.09   -30.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.79R   32.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2014, Notts_County 1 5 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       27   59  +22      12.54    95.33     7.90    91.57     6.17    31.68    34.04    65.96    99.79    75.88P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.52    93.85    17.04    91.38     6.44    42.57    37.13    67.24    99.69    76.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   27   55  +24       3.56    67.60     2.61    90.28     6.02    37.84    27.51    59.76    99.61    74.78P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.72    89.97     5.07    78.37     6.40    13.34     0.94     4.38    78.51    18.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       27   45  +11       8.00    83.95    11.62    69.85     6.34     8.69     0.04     0.25    29.99     4.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         28   45  +10       3.52    67.31     5.36    72.14     6.00    13.62     0.06     0.43    44.42     9.79P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    28   45   +8      -1.41    43.13    -4.25    75.36     6.12    17.05     0.24     1.48    65.90    18.88P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         27   40   +8      -4.84    26.32    -3.83    71.03     6.23    15.41     0.04     0.38    38.76    11.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.48    80.20     3.33    64.42     6.47    -5.68     0.00     0.03     8.62     1.27P    0.40R    0.01  
MK_Dons         26   36   +3      -5.16    24.98    -5.26    66.68     6.48     7.77     0.00     0.05    16.81     4.17P    0.12R    0.01  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.58    62.90     1.15    65.22     6.60    15.72     0.00     0.04    13.06     3.10P    0.38R    0.01  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.74    54.68     4.77    58.95     6.31    -2.99     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.24P    3.15R    0.14  
Bradford        26   33   +6       1.01    56.10    11.51    57.73     6.35     1.70     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.20P    4.54R    0.25  
Gillingham      28   32  -11       0.40    53.11    -0.08    53.28     5.98   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   17.35R    1.65  
Crawley_Town    25   31   -5      -0.12    49.98     0.06    57.21     6.47    -8.88     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.14P    6.62R    0.48  
Oldham          27   30   -6      -2.07    40.16     1.47    52.55     6.06   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   19.53R    1.99  
Tranmere        27   28  -18      -3.72    31.63    -9.79    51.28     6.12   -22.34     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   28.12R    3.72  
Notts_County    29   27  -11     -10.96     8.18    -7.81    49.12     5.76   -12.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.00R    5.93  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.57    47.83    -5.44    47.84     6.11   -30.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    50.40R   11.45  
Crewe           28   27  -27      -0.11    50.85    -8.06    44.10     5.55   -39.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.41R   28.93  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.08     6.75   -11.14    54.48     6.38    -7.33     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07P   12.92R    1.29  
Shrewsbury      28   26  -11      -6.46    19.64    -2.28    47.26     5.78   -16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.80R   11.06  
Bristol_City    26   24   -5     -12.59     5.07    -5.98    52.73     6.60    -3.25     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   19.57R    2.85  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.83    21.08    -7.98    43.82     6.09   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.65R   30.26  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           27   49  +14       2.84    63.58     0.57    81.71     6.30    23.69    32.53    69.74    97.86    78.77P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   48  +17       2.00    60.02     4.05    80.34     6.15    26.04    24.91    63.62    97.02    74.68P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       26   47  +13       8.09    85.41     8.13    76.75     6.45    16.37    10.73    37.90    89.76    49.62P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.81    77.19     3.88    76.91     6.30    15.68     9.77    38.62    90.14    51.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   46   +4       8.32    85.78     2.85    71.75     6.14     3.66     2.07    12.51    66.59    23.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   45  +15       4.23    71.27     7.54    75.27     6.31    19.24     7.30    30.73    85.93    45.58P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.48    67.81     3.48    77.56     6.32    19.41    12.42    43.51    91.98    57.60P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       25   38   +5       8.35    87.00    11.93    63.62     6.69     0.37     0.19     1.78    20.84     4.77P    0.61R    0.17  
Morecambe            28   38   -4       1.44    57.85    -1.56    60.58     5.85    -6.86     0.01     0.23     7.61     1.62P    1.11R    0.24  
Dag_&_Red            27   35   +0      -0.26    49.38     2.39    60.22     6.17    -1.11     0.01     0.26     8.30     1.93P    1.61R    0.48  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   35   -1       2.31    62.41     5.08    58.07     6.05    -5.08     0.01     0.10     4.27     0.87P    3.29R    0.99  
Plymouth             27   35   -6       1.85    60.47    -1.50    58.36     5.93    -9.06     0.00     0.09     4.02     0.79P    3.07R    0.83  
Cheltenham           27   34   -4      -3.20    34.28    -4.39    59.28     6.15    -4.98     0.01     0.18     5.97     1.53P    2.46R    0.71  
Hartlepool           27   34   -4      -3.88    31.16    -5.55    60.80     6.19    -2.61     0.01     0.27     9.42     2.48P    1.45R    0.45  
York                 28   32   -2      -2.46    38.22     3.06    54.11     5.82    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.20P   10.36R    3.50  
Exeter               26   32   -4      -3.52    32.54    -3.82    59.58     6.40    -3.67     0.02     0.28     7.44     1.90P    2.62R    0.84  
Mansfield            28   31   -9      -0.22    49.96     1.53    52.02     5.89   -14.08     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P   20.86R    8.70  
Bristol_Rovers       26   30   -2      -3.76    31.13     0.29    55.96     6.30    -3.88     0.00     0.05     2.57     0.59P    7.31R    2.64  
Wycombe              26   29   -4      -5.41    23.83    -2.35    54.82     6.34    -6.32     0.00     0.04     1.83     0.40P   10.43R    4.08  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.19    39.24    -0.56    52.38     6.21   -12.93     0.00     0.01     0.64     0.14P   20.16R    8.74  
Portsmouth           27   29   -9     -10.56     9.21   -12.78    56.73     6.33    -6.64     0.00     0.04     3.10     0.90P    6.49R    2.32  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.58    13.18    -5.46    56.38     6.52    -2.54     0.00     0.05     3.31     0.91P    7.15R    2.62  
Torquay              27   26  -14      -6.58    19.15    -7.81    48.91     6.04   -18.41     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   40.26R   20.99  
Northampton          26   22  -16      -8.49    11.86    -8.98    45.84     6.21   -20.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   60.75R   41.71  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2014, Aldershot 2 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            28   60  +37       6.73    81.79    12.74    94.77     5.63    53.25    71.64    99.96    82.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    27   57  +28      11.57    94.26    15.44    90.04     5.91    38.86    26.34    99.43    48.75P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    30   52   -1      13.65    95.50     4.48    74.09     5.40    -1.23     0.09    42.81     5.25P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.40    66.32     5.34    69.70     5.45    10.12     0.00    18.75     3.12P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.43    57.38     0.10    79.51     6.33    23.35     1.63    78.78    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          31   45   +9       2.14    60.12     9.19    66.57     5.49    10.37     0.00     8.43     1.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           30   45   +7      -4.57    28.39    -6.04    70.25     5.49    12.07     0.00    22.08     5.95P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    27   45   +6      -0.14    49.19    -7.06    74.72     6.06    11.74     0.23    49.89    12.18P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         29   44   -1       7.57    83.72     4.10    65.56     5.47    -3.48     0.00     5.10     0.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        27   43   +2       8.47    86.20     6.10    66.92     6.15    -1.57     0.00     9.94     1.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.68    53.76     0.92    66.73     6.12     5.31     0.00    10.47     1.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   40  +13      -3.35    32.76     2.81    69.42     6.11    18.07     0.04    21.56     5.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          28   39   +5      -7.61    16.14    -8.14    68.06     5.78    11.60     0.01    13.76     3.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          29   39   +2       1.74    59.22     6.18    60.67     5.81    -0.69     0.00     1.22     0.16P    0.29R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.22    67.38     7.24    67.13     6.36     8.48     0.01    12.61     2.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         28   38   +2      -4.45    28.42    -4.02    63.17     5.79     3.03     0.00     2.94     0.63P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   33   -8      -2.85    35.99    -1.83    55.32     5.63    -9.72     0.00     0.07     0.01P    2.91R    0.00  
Woking           28   33   -9      -1.62    42.41    -2.21    51.54     5.56   -19.66     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.14R    0.00  
Aldershot        28   30   +6      -6.17    21.41    -6.20    62.31     5.87    18.06     0.00     2.17     0.67P    0.18R    0.00  
Chester          28   28  -16       0.43    53.60     0.39    47.63     5.61   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.75R    0.00  
Tamworth         26   27  -16      -0.09    50.55    -2.47    48.87     5.88   -25.11     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.85R    0.00  
Southport        29   27  -21      -4.22    29.20    -6.68    45.27     5.38   -29.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.20R    0.00  
Dartford         30   23  -26      -8.84    11.62   -10.31    41.10     5.30   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.56R    0.04  
Hyde_United      30    7  -56     -15.54     0.55   -20.07    17.90     4.51   -77.23     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10