Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 24 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 January 2014, West_Brom 1 1 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.53    88.21     2.99    80.97     5.32    36.71    23.02    53.91    81.87    93.57    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.62    58.93     6.46    84.05     4.92    59.60    53.22    80.63    94.37    98.55    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       5.94    82.28     2.39    80.73     5.21    38.38    21.31    52.64    81.81    93.73    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.77    54.23     5.04    72.85     5.50    37.48     1.88     8.92    25.14    56.55    90.42     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.69    87.74    -4.21    68.47     5.45     8.16     0.25     1.44     5.77    18.75    66.09     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   42  +15       4.32    74.20     4.17    68.18     5.45    21.18     0.23     1.50     5.92    19.09    66.47     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +9      -4.32    25.09    -8.51    68.27     5.20    24.23     0.10     0.94     5.02    19.20    69.86     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.78    84.37     6.62    57.94     5.46     3.22     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.52     7.19     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       2.06    62.58     6.92    52.31     5.47     2.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.02     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.83    45.70     2.02    43.38     5.25   -11.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.57R    0.36  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.69    55.72     6.77    39.88     5.22   -13.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.10R    2.15  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.24    49.59    -4.65    38.59     5.10   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.38R    4.12  
West_Brom        22   22   -5      -5.69    19.23    -0.33    42.59     5.37    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.05R    0.81  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.67    40.57    -3.70    39.54     5.20   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.61R    2.68  
Swansea          22   21   -6      -5.26    21.45     0.88    42.61     5.32    -6.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.94R    0.78  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       0.96    57.96     1.50    32.75     4.78   -31.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.82R   28.21  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.57    29.24   -11.79    35.37     5.15   -36.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.05R   14.53  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.73    11.48    -3.48    35.44     5.10   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.20R   10.84  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.32    16.45    -6.06    35.00     4.99   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.01R   13.47  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.67    40.84    -3.05    33.73     5.06   -31.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.25R   22.05  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Barnsley 2 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       26   57  +20      11.49    94.11     4.97    91.57     6.26    30.91    64.74    85.70    99.72    89.69P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.27    86.88     3.41    84.98     6.25    23.10    17.72    49.05    96.91    62.69P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.86    88.32     9.29    82.52     6.31    25.17    10.83    34.21    93.60    48.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   47  +16       6.81    81.50     9.12    79.28     6.37    23.59     4.35    18.12    85.23    33.22P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.18    71.12     6.70    74.98     6.27    18.42     1.18     6.02    65.10    19.91P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   41   +9      -1.21    43.68    -0.94    74.14     6.42    17.79     0.90     4.81    60.02    20.35P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.57    41.74    -0.40    69.98     6.20    12.33     0.15     1.02    32.61     9.31P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       26   37   +0       0.45    52.62    -1.48    64.50     6.31     0.28     0.01     0.13     9.03     1.83P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   36   +8      -1.60    41.71     5.03    64.68     6.34     9.79     0.02     0.18    11.32     2.61P    0.05R    0.00  
Ipswich         26   36   +6       0.60    53.55     6.15    63.18     6.30     5.65     0.00     0.05     7.19     1.45P    0.12R    0.00  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.17    33.79    -5.22    67.68     6.53     6.59     0.08     0.57    20.96     6.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.47    52.93     1.79    62.16     6.30    -0.39     0.00     0.03     4.92     0.94P    0.34R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.32    52.27     6.80    60.16     6.26     2.06     0.00     0.01     2.76     0.51P    0.66R    0.02  
Blackpool       26   32   -8      -2.62    36.80    -6.67    58.08     6.14    -9.87     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.21P    1.52R    0.08  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.73    14.45    -1.89    63.11     6.54     9.95     0.01     0.08     7.93     2.17P    0.28R    0.01  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.31    68.50     0.20    52.89     6.24   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   10.60R    1.12  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.73    14.57    -3.70    56.13     6.37    -2.27     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.15P    3.22R    0.19  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.97    17.31    -9.76    55.76     6.41   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.12P    4.43R    0.32  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -5.88    20.54     2.36    53.13     6.46    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    8.69R    0.95  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.31    38.33   -10.18    46.48     6.02   -32.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.10R    9.07  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.80    13.67    -5.71    51.21     6.35   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   14.49R    1.88  
Doncaster       26   24  -21      -0.67    47.67    -4.32    43.68     5.98   -32.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.12R   18.31  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.87    35.29     0.55    40.47     6.06   -30.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.50R   36.11  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.87    19.91    -6.09    41.06     6.10   -30.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.80R   31.95  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 24 January 2014, Brentford 2 1 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       27   59  +22      12.96    95.59     8.51    91.32     6.16    31.30    34.77    66.99    99.75    76.25P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.48    93.84    16.97    91.51     6.43    42.73    40.53    70.36    99.73    78.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       3.07    65.33     2.39    88.86     6.30    36.09    22.74    52.46    99.22    69.95P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.55    89.67     4.80    78.49     6.40    13.51     1.11     5.18    80.48    20.29P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    27   45   +9      -0.14    49.33    -3.32    77.41     6.29    19.00     0.72     3.89    77.35    24.47P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       26   44  +11       8.28    85.57    11.40    70.72     6.55     9.52     0.09     0.56    36.55     5.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         27   42   +6       3.23    66.53     3.27    69.49     6.19     8.19     0.01     0.17    28.97     5.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.64    80.49     3.56    64.27     6.47    -5.85     0.00     0.02     8.75     1.22P    0.51R    0.01  
Swindon         26   37   +6      -5.51    23.49    -4.40    69.76     6.42    13.89     0.03     0.27    32.76     8.98P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons         26   36   +3      -5.16    25.10    -5.26    66.76     6.46     7.86     0.01     0.07    17.78     4.40P    0.16R    0.00  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.72    63.41     1.36    65.14     6.53    15.60     0.00     0.04    13.12     3.13P    0.34R    0.01  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.69    54.04     4.68    58.95     6.31    -2.98     0.00     0.00     1.87     0.32P    3.35R    0.15  
Bradford        26   33   +6       1.10    56.23    11.63    57.69     6.38     1.64     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.27P    5.15R    0.29  
Gillingham      28   32  -11       0.53    53.58     0.09    53.22     5.94   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   18.09R    1.89  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.10    51.32    -0.25    57.22     6.64    -9.38     0.00     0.00     1.17     0.18P    7.55R    0.58  
Notts_County    28   27   -7     -10.95     8.07    -6.06    51.46     6.02    -7.46     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   24.46R    3.21  
Oldham          26   27   -7      -3.58    31.61     0.26    50.18     6.23   -13.05     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   33.36R    5.58  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.54    48.39    -5.39    47.84     6.11   -30.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.49R   12.54  
Crewe           27   27  -26       0.77    55.73    -7.74    45.27     5.77   -38.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.05R   23.86  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.08     6.77   -11.09    54.34     6.33    -7.48     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P   13.64R    1.65  
Shrewsbury      27   26   -9      -6.00    21.04    -1.78    48.34     5.92   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.35R    9.03  
Tranmere        26   25  -19      -4.83    25.83   -10.00    49.87     6.29   -23.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.58R    7.32  
Bristol_City    25   24   -3     -12.19     5.32    -5.52    53.76     6.73    -1.75     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.10P   16.76R    2.36  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.87    21.18    -8.11    43.89     6.10   -28.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.12R   31.50  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Chesterfield 2 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           26   48  +14       3.39    66.80     0.95    82.44     6.50    24.13    39.60    74.97    97.84    82.15P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.78    76.92     3.81    76.87     6.35    15.62    10.61    41.29    89.26    53.25P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   46   +6       9.05    88.28     3.86    73.63     6.34     6.47     4.37    21.96    75.54    32.95P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         26   45  +15       1.46    57.53     3.65    78.46     6.44    23.69    18.17    53.88    93.53    66.94P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.38    67.34     3.32    77.58     6.36    19.42    13.70    46.53    91.52    59.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       25   44  +11       7.15    83.05     7.11    74.45     6.62    13.44     6.74    27.75    80.16    39.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   42  +14       3.12    66.27     7.26    73.99     6.55    18.74     6.12    27.24    79.58    41.49P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.88    88.61    12.58    65.36     6.91     3.00     0.55     3.74    29.11     7.88P    0.37R    0.08  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.84    60.10    -1.58    60.95     6.07    -6.81     0.03     0.38     8.91     2.02P    1.33R    0.39  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.08    51.12     2.22    60.11     6.32    -1.73     0.01     0.38     8.41     2.05P    2.14R    0.71  
Plymouth             26   34   -6       2.17    62.45    -1.57    58.75     6.09    -8.97     0.01     0.14     4.68     1.02P    3.34R    1.07  
Cheltenham           26   33   -4      -2.77    35.93    -4.31    59.66     6.39    -4.92     0.02     0.34     7.03     1.87P    2.77R    0.82  
York                 27   32   +0      -1.82    41.31     4.03    55.35     6.00    -3.47     0.00     0.04     1.72     0.33P    7.98R    2.91  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32   -2       0.95    55.92     4.36    56.20     6.25    -6.43     0.00     0.07     2.72     0.52P    7.27R    2.70  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.52    37.21    -3.39    61.25     6.64    -2.22     0.06     0.79    12.23     3.54P    1.78R    0.56  
Hartlepool           26   31   -6      -4.61    27.65    -6.36    58.88     6.41    -4.97     0.01     0.20     5.90     1.53P    3.65R    1.25  
Mansfield            27   30   -9       0.21    52.49     1.48    52.34     6.13   -14.08     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.12P   21.44R    9.93  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.19    39.21    -0.55    52.34     6.16   -12.94     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.09P   21.13R    9.77  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.54    13.33    -5.38    56.31     6.57    -2.63     0.00     0.09     3.16     0.89P    7.97R    3.17  
Wycombe              25   28   -4      -4.87    25.64    -2.19    55.13     6.52    -6.31     0.00     0.06     2.08     0.55P   11.08R    4.78  
Portsmouth           26   28   -9     -10.11     9.61   -12.76    57.22     6.54    -6.43     0.00     0.11     3.87     1.13P    6.53R    2.50  
Bristol_Rovers       25   27   -4      -4.64    26.50    -0.69    54.09     6.46    -6.11     0.00     0.02     1.37     0.31P   13.80R    6.10  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.66    22.44    -7.40    49.82     6.19   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   36.00R   19.79  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -8.07    12.68    -8.44    47.40     6.37   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   51.40R   33.47  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Barnet 1 3 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.37    80.66    11.76    93.75     5.82    51.16    63.83    99.93    77.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    26   56  +28      12.25    95.66    15.97    90.78     6.12    39.27    33.75    99.59    53.68P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.22    93.84     3.84    71.75     5.61    -3.41     0.04    29.01     3.22P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.49    66.91     5.40    69.72     5.44    10.11     0.01    20.19     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.28    56.63    -0.08    79.59     6.34    23.44     2.05    80.18    25.32P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    27   45   +6      -0.06    49.40    -6.91    74.59     6.06    11.56     0.21    50.89    12.21P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          30   44   +9       2.22    60.84     8.66    66.00     5.64     8.75     0.01     8.05     1.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         28   44   +2       7.49    83.82     4.74    66.44     5.68    -1.37     0.00     8.04     1.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        26   43   +3       9.32    88.80     6.35    67.79     6.38    -1.42     0.03    14.25     1.86P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           29   42   +6      -5.33    25.17    -5.69    69.50     5.68    12.53     0.00    20.73     5.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.74    53.97     1.03    66.77     6.12     5.40     0.01    11.26     2.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          28   39   +5      -7.69    15.86    -8.20    68.13     5.77    11.76     0.02    15.07     4.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          28   39   +3       3.00    65.19     6.92    62.80     6.02     1.51     0.00     3.28     0.53P    0.14R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.25    67.66     7.29    67.12     6.42     8.46     0.02    13.76     2.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     26   37  +10      -3.58    31.43     1.98    68.29     6.30    15.83     0.02    18.38     4.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Hereford         27   35   +1      -5.56    23.18    -4.27    62.11     6.01     2.86     0.00     2.62     0.54P    0.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     28   32   -8      -1.98    40.30    -1.15    56.05     5.85    -9.14     0.00     0.16     0.04P    2.49R    0.00  
Woking           27   32   -9      -1.40    43.13    -2.43    51.47     5.78   -20.40     0.00     0.03     0.00P   11.86R    0.00  
Aldershot        27   29   +6      -5.45    23.90    -5.70    63.65     6.07    19.58     0.00     4.57     1.47P    0.18R    0.00  
Chester          27   28  -13       0.20    52.58     0.79    48.77     5.79   -21.37     0.00     0.00     0.00P   23.69R    0.01  
Southport        28   27  -20      -3.60    32.03    -6.81    45.96     5.52   -29.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.32R    0.01  
Tamworth         25   24  -19      -0.93    45.46    -4.20    46.45     6.08   -29.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.10R    0.05  
Dartford         29   22  -26      -8.51    12.27   -10.50    40.97     5.43   -32.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.98R    0.20  
Hyde_United      29    7  -53     -15.03     0.66   -18.80    19.73     4.86   -73.27     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.73  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10