Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 23 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 January 2014, West_Brom 1 1 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.47    87.95     2.80    81.03     5.32    36.83    23.27    54.33    82.09    93.69    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.57    58.63     6.38    84.06     4.90    59.61    52.73    80.32    94.72    98.59    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       5.97    82.33     2.39    80.74     5.22    38.37    21.51    52.68    81.90    93.88    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.72    53.67     4.91    72.87     5.47    37.56     1.93     8.76    24.71    56.87    90.85     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.79    88.09    -4.09    68.41     5.49     8.04     0.25     1.51     5.82    18.33    66.03     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   42  +15       4.40    74.70     4.28    68.10     5.43    21.14     0.20     1.41     5.65    19.09    66.17     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +9      -4.24    25.43    -8.32    68.21     5.27    24.08     0.11     0.99     5.05    18.98    69.63     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.79    84.58     6.64    57.91     5.44     3.16     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.55     7.22     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       2.11    63.23     6.99    52.27     5.44     2.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.08     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.75    46.29     2.10    43.38     5.25   -11.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.58R    0.40  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.85    56.81     7.01    39.83     5.24   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.38R    2.14  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.30    49.17    -4.77    38.65     5.06   -27.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.49R    3.89  
West_Brom        22   22   -5      -5.83    18.89    -0.50    42.64     5.45    -7.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.33R    0.79  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.75    39.83    -3.78    39.56     5.19   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.45R    2.76  
Swansea          22   21   -6      -5.26    21.23     0.86    42.60     5.36    -6.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.10R    0.73  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       1.15    59.48     1.76    32.68     4.74   -31.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.78R   28.67  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.67    28.71   -11.99    35.43     5.13   -36.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.77R   14.21  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.76    11.06    -3.50    35.48     5.09   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.93R   10.96  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.39    16.34    -6.16    35.06     4.99   -24.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.52R   13.41  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.70    40.58    -3.02    33.72     5.06   -31.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.65R   22.04  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Barnsley 2 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       26   57  +20      11.50    94.00     4.89    91.56     6.26    30.88    64.52    85.63    99.77    89.48P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.26    86.74     3.41    85.01     6.28    23.11    17.81    49.09    96.83    62.90P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.75    88.22     9.16    82.56     6.29    25.19    10.99    34.34    93.75    49.04P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   47  +16       6.94    82.03     9.34    79.21     6.34    23.48     4.27    17.69    85.17    32.72P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.26    71.30     6.81    74.93     6.28    18.35     1.15     6.02    64.55    19.47P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   41   +9      -1.39    42.72    -1.21    74.24     6.44    17.98     1.04     5.26    60.19    20.73P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.53    41.76    -0.32    69.88     6.17    12.22     0.12     0.91    31.76     9.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   37   +0       0.44    52.49    -1.48    64.52     6.28     0.32     0.01     0.09     9.00     1.90P    0.11R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   36   +8      -1.55    42.24     5.05    64.64     6.38     9.78     0.01     0.18    11.42     2.67P    0.07R    0.00  
Ipswich         26   36   +6       0.49    53.21     6.06    63.26     6.29     5.74     0.01     0.09     7.38     1.50P    0.16R    0.01  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.16    33.77    -5.22    67.74     6.58     6.67     0.07     0.55    21.23     6.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.46    52.96     1.74    62.22     6.28    -0.33     0.00     0.05     4.99     0.98P    0.29R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.31    52.34     6.74    60.17     6.35     2.10     0.00     0.01     3.14     0.62P    0.71R    0.03  
Blackpool       26   32   -8      -2.54    37.21    -6.52    58.03     6.19    -9.98     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.24P    1.66R    0.07  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.72    14.88    -1.88    63.10     6.61     9.96     0.00     0.09     8.11     2.25P    0.32R    0.02  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.29    68.26     0.19    52.89     6.26   -21.93     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   10.47R    1.13  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.82    14.48    -3.81    56.20     6.38    -2.21     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.18P    3.24R    0.22  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.77    18.06    -9.41    55.58     6.40   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.10P    4.60R    0.39  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -6.03    20.05     2.17    53.13     6.43    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    8.83R    0.92  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.33    38.02   -10.13    46.56     6.00   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    41.67R    8.75  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.74    13.85    -5.72    51.21     6.36   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   14.57R    1.92  
Doncaster       26   24  -21      -0.67    47.56    -4.35    43.71     5.97   -32.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.86R   18.38  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.78    35.86     0.65    40.37     6.06   -30.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.13R   36.86  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.94    19.70    -6.17    41.19     6.12   -30.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.28R   31.28  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Crewe 2 0 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.63    94.31    17.24    91.35     6.39    42.54    40.80    70.81    99.73    78.91P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   56  +21      11.66    94.31     8.06    90.64     6.28    31.72    32.60    63.85    99.64    74.26P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.95    64.67     2.20    88.97     6.28    36.23    24.47    54.56    99.25    71.11P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.68    90.03     5.02    78.38     6.38    13.41     1.16     5.13    79.90    19.66P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    27   45   +9      -0.36    48.06    -3.71    77.58     6.32    19.27     0.83     4.40    78.07    25.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       26   44  +11       8.23    85.37    11.32    70.76     6.56     9.61     0.08     0.56    36.57     6.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         27   42   +6       3.26    66.43     3.30    69.55     6.15     8.23     0.02     0.21    28.82     5.81P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.51    80.17     3.34    64.49     6.52    -5.56     0.00     0.03     9.62     1.36P    0.46R    0.01  
Swindon         26   37   +6      -5.52    23.23    -4.43    69.81     6.43    13.98     0.02     0.33    32.72     9.13P    0.05R    0.00  
MK_Dons         26   36   +3      -5.08    25.57    -5.18    66.67     6.50     7.78     0.01     0.05    17.56     4.24P    0.19R    0.00  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.80    63.91     1.48    65.04     6.58    15.44     0.00     0.06    12.82     3.07P    0.43R    0.01  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.77    54.85     4.81    58.83     6.27    -3.14     0.00     0.00     1.76     0.26P    3.45R    0.16  
Bradford        26   33   +6       1.06    56.52    11.58    57.77     6.35     1.77     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.23P    4.81R    0.26  
Gillingham      27   32  -10       1.22    57.42    -0.01    53.96     6.12   -16.77     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   15.87R    1.52  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.21    51.82    -0.01    57.03     6.62    -9.69     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.15P    7.97R    0.69  
Notts_County    28   27   -7     -10.93     8.01    -6.04    51.44     5.99    -7.54     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   24.57R    3.13  
Oldham          26   27   -7      -3.55    31.98     0.38    50.17     6.19   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   33.32R    5.34  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.41    49.16    -5.19    47.71     6.09   -30.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   52.46R   12.98  
Crewe           27   27  -26       0.73    55.50    -7.81    45.29     5.78   -38.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.07R   24.07  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.08     6.78   -11.12    54.44     6.39    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P   13.58R    1.58  
Shrewsbury      27   26   -9      -5.94    21.61    -1.70    48.26     5.94   -14.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    45.06R    9.33  
Tranmere        26   25  -19      -4.84    26.17    -9.98    49.83     6.32   -23.10     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   37.92R    7.52  
Bristol_City    25   24   -3     -12.15     5.57    -5.48    53.73     6.76    -1.77     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.09P   16.82R    2.34  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.87    20.86    -8.07    43.90     6.14   -28.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.96R   31.04  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Chesterfield 2 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           26   48  +14       3.37    66.84     0.87    82.43     6.49    24.12    39.71    74.92    97.85    82.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.86    77.22     3.90    76.76     6.32    15.48    10.29    40.51    88.94    52.71P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   46   +6       9.03    88.19     3.87    73.62     6.35     6.50     4.65    22.02    75.54    32.88P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         26   45  +15       1.34    56.89     3.47    78.52     6.37    23.81    18.20    54.63    93.74    67.50P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.40    67.16     3.37    77.58     6.38    19.46    13.77    46.53    91.44    60.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       25   44  +11       7.25    83.36     7.23    74.38     6.65    13.35     6.78    27.87    79.58    39.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   42  +14       3.24    66.77     7.45    73.90     6.51    18.63     5.92    26.95    79.29    40.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.84    88.63    12.48    65.46     6.92     3.12     0.53     3.94    29.69     7.96P    0.35R    0.09  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.91    60.62    -1.49    60.89     6.09    -6.91     0.02     0.39     8.86     2.01P    1.38R    0.36  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.07    50.79     2.24    60.11     6.29    -1.70     0.02     0.33     8.42     1.87P    2.10R    0.63  
Plymouth             26   34   -6       2.12    62.07    -1.61    58.81     6.14    -8.91     0.00     0.18     4.81     1.07P    3.18R    0.99  
Cheltenham           26   33   -4      -2.92    35.26    -4.53    59.81     6.40    -4.72     0.02     0.34     7.61     2.01P    2.72R    0.91  
York                 27   32   +0      -1.93    40.75     3.85    55.50     6.01    -3.31     0.00     0.04     1.78     0.43P    7.67R    2.82  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32   -2       1.03    56.32     4.51    56.17     6.23    -6.45     0.00     0.07     2.52     0.46P    7.47R    2.80  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.51    37.27    -3.38    61.17     6.64    -2.29     0.07     0.74    12.00     3.42P    1.76R    0.60  
Hartlepool           26   31   -6      -4.72    27.09    -6.52    58.91     6.39    -4.91     0.01     0.25     5.92     1.66P    3.57R    1.22  
Mansfield            27   30   -9       0.22    52.33     1.50    52.35     6.14   -14.07     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.08P   21.36R    9.68  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.19    38.85    -0.60    52.39     6.23   -12.87     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.11P   21.19R    9.77  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.43    13.84    -5.27    56.28     6.57    -2.72     0.00     0.07     3.26     1.01P    8.00R    3.36  
Wycombe              25   28   -4      -4.85    25.48    -2.16    55.06     6.56    -6.41     0.00     0.05     2.08     0.46P   11.16R    4.72  
Portsmouth           26   28   -9     -10.11     9.65   -12.77    57.24     6.54    -6.40     0.01     0.14     3.77     1.23P    6.51R    2.48  
Bristol_Rovers       25   27   -4      -4.52    26.97    -0.54    54.03     6.46    -6.23     0.00     0.03     1.47     0.34P   14.18R    6.29  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.84    21.68    -7.66    49.93     6.24   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   35.41R   19.23  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.97    13.04    -8.21    47.27     6.41   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   51.98R   34.08  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Barnet 1 3 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.51    81.35    12.04    93.70     5.80    51.05    63.39    99.92    77.26P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    26   56  +28      12.20    95.64    15.88    90.81     6.10    39.35    34.08    99.61    54.29P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.29    93.87     3.98    71.68     5.62    -3.50     0.04    28.68     3.29P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.41    66.61     5.33    69.71     5.43    10.13     0.01    20.07     3.42P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.28    56.52    -0.16    79.68     6.34    23.63     2.15    80.51    25.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    27   45   +6      -0.21    48.73    -7.10    74.68     6.04    11.66     0.27    51.43    12.33P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          30   44   +9       2.23    60.94     8.66    66.03     5.60     8.77     0.00     8.02     1.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         28   44   +2       7.51    83.73     4.79    66.41     5.64    -1.41     0.00     7.75     1.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        26   43   +3       9.12    88.51     6.05    67.86     6.38    -1.29     0.02    14.62     1.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           29   42   +6      -5.41    24.98    -5.76    69.58     5.71    12.59     0.01    21.15     5.60P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.79    54.45     1.12    66.69     6.11     5.23     0.00    10.69     1.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          28   39   +5      -7.59    16.20    -8.10    68.04     5.79    11.66     0.01    14.84     3.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          28   39   +3       3.07    65.75     7.06    62.75     5.99     1.45     0.00     3.19     0.45P    0.12R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.25    67.74     7.28    67.12     6.39     8.43     0.01    13.46     2.15P    0.03R    0.00  
Forest_Green     26   37  +10      -3.67    31.09     1.86    68.37     6.29    15.98     0.02    18.81     3.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         27   35   +1      -5.47    23.55    -4.13    62.08     5.93     2.77     0.00     2.45     0.50P    0.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     28   32   -8      -2.16    39.39    -1.43    56.12     5.81    -9.03     0.00     0.14     0.02P    2.42R    0.00  
Woking           27   32   -9      -1.35    43.41    -2.36    51.34     5.76   -20.55     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.35R    0.00  
Aldershot        27   29   +6      -5.44    23.82    -5.72    63.65     6.05    19.58     0.00     4.66     1.40P    0.15R    0.00  
Chester          27   28  -13       0.24    52.63     0.85    48.77     5.79   -21.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.80R    0.00  
Southport        28   27  -20      -3.46    32.51    -6.58    45.83     5.50   -29.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.59R    0.01  
Tamworth         25   24  -19      -1.04    45.13    -4.36    46.63     6.06   -29.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.88R    0.04  
Dartford         29   22  -26      -8.54    12.21   -10.59    41.05     5.46   -32.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.43R    0.17  
Hyde_United      29    7  -53     -14.91     0.65   -18.58    19.64     4.83   -73.44     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.78  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10