Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 22 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 January 2014, West_Brom 1 1 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.62    88.71     3.09    80.94     5.33    36.68    22.48    53.37    81.74    93.54    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.49    58.14     6.21    84.15     4.90    59.77    53.90    81.13    94.96    98.75    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       6.02    82.49     2.49    80.67     5.22    38.29    20.97    52.41    81.53    93.72    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.74    53.70     4.95    72.85     5.52    37.49     2.08     9.14    25.20    56.32    90.50     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.76    87.96    -4.14    68.46     5.48     8.10     0.26     1.53     5.76    18.85    66.51     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   42  +15       4.27    73.77     4.10    68.18     5.41    21.22     0.19     1.39     5.70    19.28    66.84     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +9      -4.22    25.57    -8.33    68.19     5.23    24.09     0.12     1.03     5.06    19.04    69.33     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.84    84.86     6.71    57.92     5.37     3.17     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.47     6.76     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       2.03    62.74     6.83    52.29     5.46     2.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.07     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.83    45.88     1.96    43.41     5.26   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.55R    0.42  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.71    55.85     6.84    39.90     5.25   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.12R    2.23  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.31    49.19    -4.82    38.64     5.10   -27.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.71R    3.93  
West_Brom        22   22   -5      -5.77    18.99    -0.42    42.63     5.36    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.94R    0.75  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.70    40.26    -3.72    39.56     5.18   -20.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.47R    2.49  
Swansea          22   21   -6      -5.23    21.05     0.95    42.55     5.38    -7.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.94R    0.74  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       1.00    58.15     1.52    32.77     4.72   -31.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.85R   28.21  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.58    29.41   -11.76    35.36     5.11   -36.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.48R   14.74  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.66    11.66    -3.31    35.43     5.13   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.59R   11.25  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.29    16.60    -6.03    34.99     4.93   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.70R   13.25  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.74    40.55    -3.12    33.75     5.08   -31.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.64R   21.98  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Barnsley 2 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       26   57  +20      11.45    94.00     4.85    91.61     6.32    31.04    64.63    85.55    99.72    89.62P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.15    86.24     3.22    85.04     6.23    23.15    17.79    49.51    96.88    63.21P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.72    87.99     9.10    82.59     6.28    25.26    10.96    34.36    93.67    49.20P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   47  +16       6.80    81.27     9.13    79.25     6.36    23.54     4.34    17.76    85.52    33.06P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.27    71.42     6.82    74.89     6.31    18.29     1.04     5.76    64.44    19.20P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   41   +9      -1.34    43.17    -1.12    74.26     6.40    17.96     1.00     5.06    60.69    20.86P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.50    41.89    -0.30    69.88     6.19    12.20     0.12     0.99    31.80     9.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   37   +0       0.48    52.87    -1.42    64.42     6.32     0.19     0.01     0.09     8.97     1.78P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   36   +8      -1.48    42.63     5.17    64.61     6.35     9.71     0.03     0.15    11.12     2.47P    0.10R    0.00  
Ipswich         26   36   +6       0.49    53.04     6.04    63.23     6.27     5.70     0.02     0.07     7.31     1.44P    0.17R    0.00  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.15    33.66    -5.20    67.75     6.53     6.63     0.06     0.57    21.17     5.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.52    53.38     1.84    62.18     6.30    -0.40     0.00     0.04     4.89     0.92P    0.35R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.24    52.18     6.64    60.24     6.31     2.20     0.00     0.01     3.06     0.60P    0.65R    0.03  
Blackpool       26   32   -8      -2.52    37.42    -6.56    58.06     6.12    -9.92     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.20P    1.64R    0.08  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.69    15.02    -1.81    63.05     6.56     9.90     0.01     0.08     7.91     2.08P    0.27R    0.01  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.31    68.33     0.27    52.86     6.26   -21.95     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   10.79R    1.16  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.70    14.84    -3.61    56.18     6.37    -2.20     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.17P    3.29R    0.19  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.91    17.66    -9.69    55.70     6.39   -10.57     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.09P    4.40R    0.36  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -6.00    20.32     2.20    53.20     6.46    -3.28     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    8.56R    0.96  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.30    38.22   -10.11    46.51     6.04   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.02R    9.19  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.67    13.98    -5.55    51.11     6.35   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   14.67R    1.95  
Doncaster       26   24  -21      -0.54    48.35    -4.14    43.55     6.02   -33.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.77R   19.17  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.93    35.19     0.39    40.53     6.03   -30.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.16R   35.09  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.90    19.66    -6.13    41.13     6.12   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.08R   31.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Crewe 2 0 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.49    93.90    16.99    91.49     6.46    42.73    41.64    71.34    99.72    79.39P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   56  +21      11.75    94.40     8.21    90.56     6.34    31.59    31.79    63.32    99.66    73.92P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       3.06    65.11     2.39    88.97     6.31    36.24    24.55    54.77    99.27    71.52P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.63    89.95     4.95    78.42     6.41    13.45     1.16     5.27    80.49    20.26P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    27   45   +9      -0.26    48.53    -3.50    77.39     6.26    18.98     0.70     4.10    77.64    24.73P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       26   44  +11       8.39    85.97    11.59    70.67     6.55     9.47     0.10     0.53    36.86     6.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         27   42   +6       3.36    67.28     3.46    69.39     6.17     8.03     0.02     0.19    28.57     5.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.50    80.27     3.33    64.48     6.49    -5.60     0.01     0.03     9.38     1.44P    0.48R    0.01  
Swindon         26   37   +6      -5.20    24.67    -3.89    69.51     6.44    13.51     0.03     0.33    31.75     8.69P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons         26   36   +3      -4.95    25.90    -5.01    66.61     6.49     7.64     0.01     0.08    17.71     4.16P    0.17R    0.00  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.69    63.65     1.29    65.10     6.55    15.54     0.00     0.03    13.25     3.08P    0.44R    0.01  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.78    54.77     4.78    58.94     6.31    -2.99     0.00     0.00     1.84     0.29P    3.47R    0.19  
Bradford        26   33   +6       0.92    55.69    11.32    57.86     6.35     1.93     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.27P    4.84R    0.36  
Gillingham      27   32  -10       1.20    57.26    -0.07    53.97     6.13   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   16.01R    1.71  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.26    52.45     0.02    57.06     6.62    -9.64     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.21P    7.88R    0.63  
Notts_County    28   27   -7     -10.80     8.30    -5.82    51.34     6.00    -7.64     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   25.27R    3.41  
Oldham          26   27   -7      -3.72    31.22     0.11    50.27     6.21   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   33.04R    5.19  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.68    47.47    -5.58    47.86     6.09   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   51.55R   12.46  
Crewe           27   27  -26       0.74    55.39    -7.80    45.25     5.77   -38.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.54R   24.22  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.17     6.63   -11.26    54.50     6.33    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   13.49R    1.47  
Shrewsbury      27   26   -9      -5.95    21.54    -1.72    48.30     5.94   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.99R    9.14  
Tranmere        26   25  -19      -4.93    25.56   -10.20    49.95     6.31   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   37.52R    7.20  
Bristol_City    25   24   -3     -12.12     5.42    -5.47    53.73     6.75    -1.77     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.12P   17.22R    2.42  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.87    21.01    -8.11    43.90     6.13   -28.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.03R   31.58  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Chesterfield 2 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           26   48  +14       3.38    66.91     0.88    82.35     6.49    24.01    39.65    74.86    97.79    82.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.78    77.02     3.80    76.86     6.32    15.61    10.82    41.33    89.23    53.05P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   46   +6       9.05    88.50     3.90    73.59     6.35     6.43     4.59    21.91    75.36    32.98P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         26   45  +15       1.42    57.22     3.56    78.46     6.32    23.73    17.80    54.39    93.90    66.86P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.45    67.53     3.43    77.52     6.32    19.35    13.70    46.55    91.60    60.04P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       25   44  +11       7.33    83.87     7.40    74.27     6.62    13.18     6.64    27.41    79.46    39.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   42  +14       3.19    66.53     7.36    73.95     6.50    18.72     6.11    27.08    79.65    41.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.88    88.70    12.54    65.40     6.86     3.10     0.51     3.74    29.59     8.01P    0.38R    0.09  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.83    60.15    -1.59    60.94     6.07    -6.86     0.03     0.44     8.86     2.20P    1.33R    0.36  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.18    51.60     2.35    60.09     6.32    -1.72     0.01     0.38     8.32     2.09P    2.07R    0.62  
Plymouth             26   34   -6       2.13    62.11    -1.57    58.84     6.11    -8.89     0.01     0.13     4.77     1.03P    3.16R    1.01  
Cheltenham           26   33   -4      -2.85    35.73    -4.44    59.64     6.39    -4.99     0.02     0.30     7.13     1.81P    2.78R    0.86  
York                 27   32   +0      -1.94    40.60     3.84    55.53     6.04    -3.26     0.00     0.04     1.80     0.38P    7.68R    2.74  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32   -2       1.14    57.00     4.71    56.06     6.25    -6.60     0.00     0.07     2.46     0.47P    7.65R    2.82  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.52    37.13    -3.41    61.23     6.63    -2.23     0.06     0.85    11.98     3.47P    1.91R    0.66  
Hartlepool           26   31   -6      -4.68    27.16    -6.42    58.96     6.41    -4.89     0.02     0.21     6.04     1.70P    3.52R    1.20  
Mansfield            27   30   -9       0.29    52.69     1.59    52.32     6.14   -14.11     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.08P   21.83R   10.19  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.19    39.43    -0.57    52.38     6.21   -12.84     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.10P   21.22R    9.75  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.51    13.38    -5.34    56.29     6.51    -2.66     0.00     0.07     3.06     0.83P    7.89R    3.13  
Wycombe              25   28   -4      -5.11    24.63    -2.52    55.26     6.53    -6.15     0.00     0.07     2.27     0.63P   10.72R    4.46  
Portsmouth           26   28   -9     -10.20     9.33   -12.89    57.26     6.54    -6.36     0.01     0.12     3.87     1.22P    6.62R    2.56  
Bristol_Rovers       25   27   -4      -4.61    26.75    -0.68    54.11     6.46    -6.10     0.00     0.04     1.51     0.33P   13.64R    6.06  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.82    21.85    -7.65    49.91     6.22   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   35.98R   19.39  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.99    12.96    -8.29    47.36     6.40   -18.53     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.03P   51.61R   34.10  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Barnet 1 3 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.56    81.56    12.13    93.60     5.79    50.89    63.15    99.90    76.89P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    26   56  +28      12.13    95.50    15.79    90.85     6.09    39.35    34.36    99.54    54.36P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.38    94.14     4.06    71.70     5.59    -3.49     0.05    28.60     3.34P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.45    66.81     5.37    69.73     5.45    10.21     0.01    20.50     3.31P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.39    57.11     0.04    79.60     6.33    23.49     2.08    80.32    25.27P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    27   45   +6      -0.19    48.82    -7.11    74.56     6.04    11.51     0.26    50.61    12.05P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          30   44   +9       2.28    61.35     8.69    66.00     5.59     8.79     0.00     8.02     1.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         28   44   +2       7.49    83.88     4.73    66.41     5.63    -1.39     0.00     7.81     1.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        26   43   +3       9.09    88.50     6.03    67.94     6.32    -1.21     0.03    14.64     1.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           29   42   +6      -5.46    24.41    -5.87    69.58     5.66    12.61     0.00    21.09     5.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.70    53.83     0.93    66.79     6.16     5.40     0.01    11.48     2.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          28   39   +5      -7.57    16.06    -8.02    68.07     5.77    11.66     0.01    14.86     3.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          28   39   +3       2.97    65.33     6.92    62.80     5.98     1.49     0.00     3.25     0.50P    0.14R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.20    67.47     7.23    67.13     6.40     8.41     0.01    13.64     2.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     26   37  +10      -3.63    31.30     1.91    68.40     6.28    15.99     0.03    18.47     4.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         27   35   +1      -5.51    23.20    -4.20    62.09     5.96     2.78     0.00     2.51     0.48P    0.19R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     28   32   -8      -2.05    40.08    -1.28    56.07     5.84    -9.09     0.00     0.10     0.01P    2.45R    0.00  
Woking           27   32   -9      -1.52    42.69    -2.63    51.53     5.78   -20.25     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.70R    0.00  
Aldershot        27   29   +6      -5.49    23.85    -5.75    63.66     6.06    19.62     0.00     4.64     1.43P    0.14R    0.00  
Chester          27   28  -13       0.26    52.91     0.87    48.75     5.79   -21.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.90R    0.01  
Southport        28   27  -20      -3.38    33.10    -6.38    45.70     5.56   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.32R    0.02  
Tamworth         25   24  -19      -1.00    45.24    -4.24    46.55     6.04   -29.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.92R    0.03  
Dartford         29   22  -26      -8.54    12.35   -10.58    41.04     5.46   -32.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.16R    0.17  
Hyde_United      29    7  -53     -14.92     0.58   -18.63    19.67     4.82   -73.39     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.78  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10