Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 21 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 January 2014, West_Brom 1 1 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.58    88.42     3.04    80.94     5.33    36.68    22.93    53.66    81.71    93.57    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.64    59.24     6.49    84.01     4.95    59.50    52.99    80.51    94.65    98.57    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       5.98    82.54     2.39    80.74     5.18    38.38    21.51    52.84    82.05    93.99    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.76    53.92     4.96    72.84     5.53    37.52     2.01     9.05    24.96    56.43    90.40     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.79    87.98    -4.10    68.39     5.51     8.00     0.23     1.46     5.76    18.73    66.06     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   42  +15       4.37    74.42     4.27    68.14     5.42    21.15     0.20     1.42     5.70    19.33    66.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +9      -4.20    25.66    -8.27    68.15     5.25    24.01     0.13     1.05     5.11    18.79    69.52     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.74    84.60     6.53    58.00     5.41     3.32     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.56     7.36     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       2.10    62.98     6.91    52.26     5.45     2.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.95     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.81    46.02     2.02    43.36     5.23   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.55R    0.40  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.68    55.44     6.83    39.90     5.29   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.25R    2.27  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.25    49.24    -4.75    38.67     5.11   -27.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.68R    3.80  
West_Brom        22   22   -5      -5.82    18.68    -0.48    42.64     5.42    -7.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.27R    0.81  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.71    40.20    -3.74    39.56     5.19   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.33R    2.58  
Swansea          22   21   -6      -5.35    20.91     0.79    42.66     5.34    -6.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.86R    0.76  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       1.21    59.80     1.89    32.67     4.77   -31.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.78R   28.88  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.67    28.82   -11.98    35.44     5.14   -36.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.87R   14.26  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.82    11.24    -3.62    35.52     5.16   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.95R   11.11  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.36    16.51    -6.13    35.05     4.97   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.86R   13.05  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.73    40.34    -3.05    33.72     5.04   -31.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.57R   22.08  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Barnsley 2 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       26   57  +20      11.50    94.14     4.97    91.60     6.24    30.91    64.70    85.77    99.78    89.53P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.39    87.06     3.53    84.92     6.27    22.98    17.59    49.11    96.72    63.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.80    88.09     9.22    82.54     6.32    25.17    11.10    34.49    93.58    49.31P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   47  +16       6.92    81.88     9.28    79.17     6.36    23.42     4.22    17.71    85.12    32.84P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.35    72.09     6.93    74.87     6.26    18.25     1.15     5.80    64.55    19.44P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   41   +9      -1.35    43.10    -1.12    74.22     6.44    17.91     0.98     4.97    60.58    20.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.45    42.25    -0.24    69.83     6.22    12.13     0.12     1.06    31.75     9.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   37   +0       0.52    53.00    -1.41    64.45     6.29     0.22     0.01     0.11     8.94     1.92P    0.10R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   36   +8      -1.51    42.59     5.16    64.60     6.37     9.72     0.01     0.16    11.31     2.55P    0.08R    0.00  
Ipswich         26   36   +6       0.48    52.90     6.08    63.25     6.32     5.77     0.01     0.08     7.39     1.48P    0.17R    0.01  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.20    33.51    -5.25    67.68     6.56     6.58     0.10     0.57    21.27     6.11P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.27    51.93     1.43    62.42     6.30    -0.05     0.00     0.04     5.31     1.03P    0.28R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.39    52.59     6.84    60.15     6.32     2.04     0.00     0.01     3.08     0.58P    0.65R    0.02  
Blackpool       26   32   -8      -2.52    37.26    -6.56    58.04     6.17    -9.95     0.00     0.01     1.10     0.24P    1.67R    0.07  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.70    14.82    -1.87    63.05     6.53     9.89     0.01     0.11     7.82     2.12P    0.31R    0.01  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.29    68.42     0.21    52.85     6.25   -21.98     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   10.65R    1.03  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.78    14.48    -3.78    56.14     6.36    -2.25     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.15P    3.30R    0.18  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.85    18.22    -9.53    55.63     6.40   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P    4.70R    0.41  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -6.04    20.12     2.16    53.23     6.44    -3.22     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.07P    8.49R    0.94  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.29    38.51   -10.13    46.53     6.00   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   42.22R    8.90  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.79    13.84    -5.74    51.25     6.35   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   14.51R    1.86  
Doncaster       26   24  -21      -0.75    47.06    -4.48    43.75     5.97   -32.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.92R   18.23  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.89    35.19     0.51    40.52     6.11   -30.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.04R   35.99  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.97    19.47    -6.22    41.11     6.12   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.86R   32.34  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Crewe 2 0 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.57    94.25    17.10    91.39     6.42    42.58    41.35    71.00    99.75    79.33P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   56  +21      11.71    94.22     8.11    90.52     6.34    31.58    31.79    63.26    99.62    73.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.91    64.43     2.18    88.98     6.32    36.28    24.71    54.88    99.21    71.34P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.51    89.50     4.79    78.51     6.40    13.55     1.22     5.42    80.48    20.15P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    27   45   +9      -0.16    48.99    -3.38    77.46     6.23    19.11     0.76     4.07    77.99    24.98P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       26   44  +11       8.39    85.67    11.60    70.63     6.56     9.39     0.09     0.65    36.23     5.87P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         27   42   +6       3.34    67.26     3.41    69.41     6.15     8.04     0.03     0.22    28.18     5.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.45    79.97     3.27    64.44     6.50    -5.60     0.00     0.03     9.44     1.36P    0.44R    0.01  
Swindon         26   37   +6      -5.34    24.14    -4.17    69.68     6.43    13.75     0.03     0.32    32.35     9.04P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons         26   36   +3      -5.10    25.27    -5.19    66.74     6.52     7.84     0.01     0.06    17.96     4.26P    0.18R    0.00  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.71    63.24     1.36    65.16     6.52    15.65     0.00     0.06    13.21     3.12P    0.40R    0.02  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.75    54.59     4.74    58.92     6.29    -2.95     0.00     0.00     1.91     0.33P    3.39R    0.16  
Bradford        26   33   +6       1.13    56.51    11.66    57.71     6.32     1.68     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.24P    4.87R    0.29  
Gillingham      27   32  -10       1.34    57.74     0.11    53.93     6.12   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P   15.93R    1.53  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.25    52.20    -0.04    57.10     6.68    -9.57     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.18P    8.06R    0.67  
Notts_County    28   27   -7     -10.93     8.11    -6.05    51.41     5.99    -7.57     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   24.64R    3.22  
Oldham          26   27   -7      -3.56    31.79     0.34    50.22     6.19   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.26R    5.26  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.54    48.09    -5.37    47.77     6.10   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   52.20R   12.81  
Crewe           27   27  -26       0.76    55.57    -7.78    45.21     5.74   -38.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.71R   24.46  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.09     6.75   -11.10    54.37     6.37    -7.47     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P   14.02R    1.62  
Shrewsbury      27   26   -9      -6.14    20.70    -2.01    48.40     5.96   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    44.35R    8.93  
Tranmere        26   25  -19      -4.86    25.98    -9.98    49.90     6.31   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   37.39R    7.36  
Bristol_City    25   24   -3     -12.20     5.34    -5.58    53.86     6.76    -1.60     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.10P   16.72R    2.28  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.80    21.18    -8.03    43.84     6.10   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.41R   31.39  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Chesterfield 2 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           26   48  +14       3.36    66.66     0.90    82.39     6.47    24.05    39.85    74.87    97.87    82.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   47  +10       5.82    77.06     3.84    76.87     6.33    15.64    10.50    41.25    89.24    53.22P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   46   +6       8.96    87.99     3.75    73.71     6.34     6.60     4.60    22.08    75.74    33.04P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         26   45  +15       1.42    57.21     3.56    78.46     6.33    23.69    17.67    53.96    93.69    66.95P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.44    67.73     3.40    77.57     6.36    19.43    14.03    46.62    91.35    60.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       25   44  +11       7.28    83.31     7.32    74.32     6.60    13.26     6.46    27.37    79.44    38.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   42  +14       3.18    66.89     7.32    73.99     6.56    18.72     6.20    27.45    79.45    41.64P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.74    88.29    12.34    65.50     6.87     3.23     0.53     3.92    29.94     8.12P    0.33R    0.08  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.85    60.38    -1.58    60.91     6.09    -6.85     0.02     0.40     8.69     2.08P    1.38R    0.37  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.03    50.93     2.15    60.10     6.34    -1.69     0.03     0.40     8.38     2.01P    2.17R    0.64  
Plymouth             26   34   -6       2.14    62.29    -1.60    58.86     6.12    -8.89     0.00     0.12     5.03     1.01P    3.26R    0.97  
Cheltenham           26   33   -4      -2.80    35.96    -4.41    59.69     6.36    -4.90     0.01     0.28     7.18     1.80P    2.73R    0.90  
York                 27   32   +0      -1.91    40.41     3.87    55.47     6.00    -3.34     0.01     0.03     1.87     0.42P    7.58R    2.68  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32   -2       0.97    56.15     4.43    56.18     6.25    -6.40     0.00     0.06     2.56     0.52P    7.40R    2.75  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.53    37.17    -3.36    61.23     6.60    -2.26     0.06     0.71    11.81     3.36P    1.71R    0.59  
Hartlepool           26   31   -6      -4.56    27.93    -6.26    58.83     6.38    -5.07     0.01     0.16     5.64     1.51P    3.67R    1.23  
Mansfield            27   30   -9       0.29    52.75     1.57    52.35     6.17   -14.08     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P   21.58R    9.98  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.03    39.94    -0.32    52.27     6.20   -13.04     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.12P   21.75R   10.13  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.37    14.09    -5.15    56.18     6.58    -2.82     0.00     0.10     3.10     0.91P    8.27R    3.35  
Wycombe              25   28   -4      -4.88    25.49    -2.21    55.15     6.56    -6.30     0.00     0.04     2.27     0.54P   10.96R    4.61  
Portsmouth           26   28   -9     -10.24     9.34   -12.91    57.30     6.58    -6.32     0.01     0.10     3.99     1.23P    6.57R    2.64  
Bristol_Rovers       25   27   -4      -4.62    26.62    -0.70    54.04     6.45    -6.18     0.00     0.04     1.40     0.36P   13.87R    5.93  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.82    21.66    -7.67    49.93     6.19   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   35.32R   19.33  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.97    13.24    -8.27    47.32     6.40   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   51.47R   33.80  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2014, Barnet 1 3 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.45    80.88    11.99    93.71     5.84    51.12    63.89    99.92    77.37P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    26   56  +28      12.22    95.78    15.98    90.72     6.10    39.16    33.76    99.52    53.61P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.10    93.48     3.71    71.82     5.63    -3.29     0.05    29.34     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +9       3.52    67.22     5.43    69.70     5.44    10.11     0.01    20.16     3.36P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.35    57.02    -0.03    79.54     6.33    23.40     1.94    79.72    24.95P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    27   45   +6      -0.23    48.36    -7.23    74.72     6.09    11.73     0.26    51.84    12.85P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          30   44   +9       2.14    60.30     8.48    66.05     5.63     8.88     0.00     8.09     1.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         28   44   +2       7.65    84.32     4.99    66.35     5.66    -1.53     0.00     7.73     1.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        26   43   +3       9.11    88.61     6.07    67.90     6.36    -1.25     0.02    14.52     1.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           29   42   +6      -5.35    25.00    -5.78    69.60     5.66    12.59     0.01    20.88     5.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     27   41   +6       0.81    54.56     1.08    66.71     6.11     5.30     0.01    10.94     1.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          28   39   +5      -7.57    16.39    -8.07    68.13     5.81    11.79     0.01    15.08     3.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          28   39   +3       2.85    64.59     6.74    62.83     6.03     1.56     0.00     3.30     0.52P    0.12R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.10    66.93     7.04    67.22     6.40     8.60     0.01    13.71     2.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     26   37  +10      -3.56    31.52     2.04    68.29     6.27    15.81     0.03    18.13     4.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Hereford         27   35   +1      -5.44    24.05    -4.08    61.98     5.98     2.61     0.00     2.37     0.46P    0.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     28   32   -8      -1.84    41.05    -0.93    55.96     5.83    -9.27     0.00     0.15     0.01P    2.55R    0.00  
Woking           27   32   -9      -1.45    42.86    -2.48    51.50     5.78   -20.33     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.80R    0.00  
Aldershot        27   29   +6      -5.47    23.87    -5.72    63.64     6.07    19.61     0.00     4.58     1.43P    0.13R    0.00  
Chester          27   28  -13       0.50    53.93     1.28    48.57     5.81   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.00P   25.21R    0.00  
Southport        28   27  -20      -3.58    32.02    -6.74    45.90     5.52   -29.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.17R    0.01  
Tamworth         25   24  -19      -1.04    44.87    -4.34    46.57     6.06   -29.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.95R    0.06  
Dartford         29   22  -26      -8.66    11.92   -10.69    41.11     5.48   -32.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.81R    0.19  
Hyde_United      29    7  -53     -14.99     0.61   -18.72    19.71     4.84   -73.30     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.74  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10