Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 20 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 January 2014, West_Brom 1 1 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.48    88.15     2.94    80.97     5.30    36.73    23.06    53.67    82.06    93.64    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.65    59.26     6.54    84.03     4.90    59.48    52.81    80.61    94.59    98.62    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       5.92    82.08     2.28    80.78     5.20    38.49    21.63    52.99    82.04    93.94    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.84    54.39     5.12    72.78     5.52    37.39     1.94     8.80    24.38    55.55    90.43     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.68    87.64    -4.26    68.46     5.48     8.11     0.25     1.45     5.77    19.00    66.21     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   42  +15       4.35    74.36     4.24    68.15     5.42    21.19     0.19     1.40     5.61    19.17    66.43     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +9      -4.36    25.23    -8.61    68.31     5.26    24.30     0.12     1.07     5.47    19.54    70.18     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.83    85.06     6.70    57.86     5.41     3.15     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.50     6.75     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       2.08    63.01     6.94    52.31     5.45     2.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.05     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.74    46.48     2.11    43.39     5.27   -11.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.66R    0.42  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.80    56.50     6.93    39.84     5.25   -13.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.22R    2.22  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.30    49.15    -4.76    38.61     5.12   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.11R    4.14  
West_Brom        22   22   -5      -5.87    18.73    -0.57    42.68     5.37    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.09R    0.67  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.66    40.44    -3.63    39.46     5.19   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.92R    2.83  
Swansea          22   21   -6      -5.26    21.12     0.92    42.64     5.35    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.93R    0.74  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       1.12    59.02     1.73    32.73     4.73   -31.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.20R   28.31  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.65    28.96   -11.98    35.43     5.12   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.68R   14.13  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.72    11.51    -3.46    35.46     5.11   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.07R   11.00  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.39    16.40    -6.17    35.04     4.99   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.71R   13.18  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.69    40.41    -3.02    33.74     5.07   -31.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.39R   22.35  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Barnsley 2 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       26   57  +20      11.48    94.12     4.94    91.59     6.27    30.90    64.58    85.51    99.78    89.49P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.25    86.67     3.38    85.02     6.27    23.17    17.75    49.15    96.90    63.18P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.67    87.98     9.04    82.63     6.29    25.33    11.13    34.49    93.88    49.08P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   47  +16       6.88    81.64     9.24    79.21     6.32    23.46     4.18    17.68    85.43    32.78P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.17    71.25     6.66    75.00     6.29    18.45     1.20     6.04    65.09    19.89P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   41   +9      -1.27    43.45    -1.04    74.21     6.42    17.87     0.96     5.08    60.42    20.54P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.49    42.15    -0.25    69.86     6.14    12.19     0.09     0.96    31.66     9.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   37   +0       0.50    52.92    -1.39    64.40     6.34     0.15     0.02     0.14     8.79     1.91P    0.09R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   36   +8      -1.46    42.67     5.26    64.58     6.34     9.67     0.01     0.17    11.10     2.51P    0.09R    0.00  
Ipswich         26   36   +6       0.59    53.41     6.22    63.17     6.28     5.64     0.00     0.07     7.23     1.40P    0.16R    0.00  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.10    34.16    -5.16    67.69     6.58     6.56     0.07     0.55    21.11     6.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.51    53.37     1.81    62.23     6.30    -0.30     0.00     0.05     5.14     0.95P    0.30R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.25    51.94     6.65    60.22     6.30     2.17     0.00     0.01     2.86     0.49P    0.70R    0.02  
Blackpool       26   32   -8      -2.59    37.12    -6.62    58.14     6.17    -9.83     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.20P    1.58R    0.06  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.70    14.84    -1.89    63.10     6.58     9.91     0.01     0.09     7.89     2.16P    0.25R    0.01  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.19    67.62     0.04    52.95     6.31   -21.84     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   10.60R    1.05  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.76    14.62    -3.70    56.12     6.34    -2.26     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.14P    3.18R    0.19  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.94    17.48    -9.71    55.73     6.38   -10.55     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.10P    4.40R    0.36  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -6.05    20.03     2.14    53.22     6.50    -3.21     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    8.80R    0.94  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.25    38.80   -10.06    46.49     5.98   -32.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   41.96R    8.75  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.86    13.53    -5.84    51.24     6.38   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   14.39R    1.89  
Doncaster       26   24  -21      -0.64    48.04    -4.30    43.59     5.94   -32.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.80R   18.74  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.83    35.13     0.58    40.47     6.05   -30.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.17R   35.71  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.87    19.86    -6.00    41.04     6.10   -30.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.49R   32.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Bristol_City 2 2 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.52    93.82    17.03    91.37     6.42    42.50    41.33    71.37    99.66    79.22P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   56  +21      11.64    94.09     8.01    90.57     6.33    31.64    32.36    63.86    99.62    73.96P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       3.14    65.75     2.42    88.88     6.29    36.10    24.29    54.54    99.21    70.88P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.58    89.92     4.82    78.43     6.36    13.48     1.19     5.32    79.65    19.93P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       26   44  +11       8.38    85.66    11.55    70.63     6.55     9.45     0.07     0.63    35.35     5.94P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough    26   42   +8      -1.30    43.34    -3.55    76.23     6.55    18.66     0.64     3.33    70.33    22.39P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         27   42   +6       3.13    66.17     3.12    69.54     6.19     8.24     0.03     0.21    28.06     5.69P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.57    80.31     3.47    64.41     6.52    -5.61     0.00     0.05     9.01     1.39P    0.47R    0.01  
Swindon         26   37   +6      -5.51    23.31    -4.34    69.76     6.45    13.85     0.04     0.30    31.97     9.03P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons         25   36   +5      -3.93    30.05    -3.58    69.09     6.73    11.36     0.04     0.35    28.80     7.45P    0.07R    0.00  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.73    63.59     1.35    65.13     6.53    15.65     0.01     0.04    12.88     3.21P    0.32R    0.01  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.74    54.41     4.72    59.02     6.30    -2.85     0.00     0.00     1.83     0.29P    3.13R    0.16  
Bradford        26   33   +6       1.04    56.15    11.51    57.73     6.35     1.73     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.23P    4.65R    0.21  
Gillingham      27   32  -10       1.37    58.16     0.17    53.93     6.08   -16.78     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   15.17R    1.24  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.08    51.05    -0.31    57.23     6.65    -9.38     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.19P    7.34R    0.49  
Notts_County    27   27   -6      -9.95     9.77    -5.77    52.30     6.17    -7.24     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   20.31R    2.07  
Oldham          26   27   -7      -3.56    31.74     0.31    50.13     6.15   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   32.57R    4.29  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.51    48.31    -5.38    47.77     6.05   -30.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.11R   10.07  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.03     6.65   -11.09    54.42     6.36    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07P   13.02R    1.14  
Shrewsbury      27   26   -9      -6.08    21.13    -1.92    48.43     5.95   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.95R    7.29  
Tranmere        26   25  -19      -4.94    25.42   -10.18    49.86     6.31   -23.02     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    37.05R    6.04  
Bristol_City    25   24   -3     -11.80     5.98    -4.96    53.57     6.78    -1.99     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P   17.18R    2.14  
Crewe           26   24  -28      -0.63    47.82    -9.20    42.62     5.95   -42.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.36R   38.31  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.88    21.12    -8.21    43.92     6.10   -28.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.25R   26.55  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Bury 0 0 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           26   48  +14       3.31    66.20     0.81    82.39     6.45    24.11    38.19    74.65    97.86    82.11P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             26   46  +10       6.11    78.94     3.73    76.66     6.50    14.75    10.21    39.10    88.12    51.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   46   +6       9.15    88.65     3.98    73.59     6.35     6.43     4.24    21.53    75.32    32.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.37    67.22     3.30    77.66     6.34    19.57    13.56    46.64    91.73    60.35P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         25   44  +15       2.01    60.54     3.93    79.20     6.54    24.25    20.89    57.89    94.46    69.85P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       25   44  +11       7.40    84.05     7.48    74.26     6.60    13.17     6.28    26.80    79.18    38.33P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   42  +14       3.05    65.81     7.17    74.08     6.54    18.87     6.02    27.28    80.02    41.71P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.88    89.03    12.62    65.36     6.87     3.02     0.45     3.56    29.40     7.95P    0.35R    0.10  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.91    60.41    -1.50    60.87     6.05    -6.91     0.01     0.35     8.64     2.08P    1.35R    0.40  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0      -0.00    50.51     2.10    60.14     6.37    -1.66     0.03     0.45     8.71     2.20P    2.16R    0.68  
Plymouth             26   34   -6       2.25    62.70    -1.43    58.72     6.16    -9.03     0.02     0.18     4.80     0.99P    3.40R    1.08  
Cheltenham           26   33   -4      -2.89    35.49    -4.51    59.71     6.33    -4.82     0.03     0.29     6.98     1.79P    2.63R    0.88  
York                 27   32   +0      -1.78    41.01     4.08    55.44     6.01    -3.35     0.00     0.05     1.73     0.36P    7.75R    2.72  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32   -2       1.09    56.69     4.62    56.08     6.24    -6.59     0.00     0.08     2.52     0.50P    7.51R    2.70  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.52    37.11    -3.37    61.25     6.64    -2.22     0.05     0.73    12.27     3.37P    1.81R    0.60  
Hartlepool           26   31   -6      -4.76    27.08    -6.60    58.99     6.39    -4.81     0.00     0.19     6.03     1.59P    3.67R    1.23  
Mansfield            27   30   -9       0.17    51.66     1.36    52.33     6.10   -14.05     0.00     0.01     0.54     0.09P   21.37R    9.64  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.06    40.01    -0.39    52.33     6.20   -12.99     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.10P   21.60R   10.14  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.48    13.68    -5.36    56.32     6.54    -2.63     0.01     0.08     3.17     0.89P    7.95R    3.17  
Wycombe              25   28   -4      -5.15    24.41    -2.57    55.26     6.52    -6.12     0.01     0.04     2.36     0.60P   10.53R    4.34  
Portsmouth           26   28   -9     -10.20     9.53   -12.85    57.27     6.51    -6.33     0.00     0.07     3.75     1.10P    6.44R    2.49  
Bristol_Rovers       25   27   -4      -4.63    26.69    -0.68    54.13     6.49    -6.07     0.00     0.04     1.52     0.33P   13.93R    6.01  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.89    21.50    -7.73    49.93     6.21   -17.93     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   35.68R   19.35  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.88    13.30    -8.17    47.27     6.35   -18.67     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   51.87R   34.48  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Chester 2 1 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.62    81.81    12.12    93.73     5.82    51.21    68.21    99.86    80.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    25   53  +27      11.06    94.34    15.54    89.36     6.30    38.64    28.40    98.81    49.08P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.18    93.81     3.77    71.83     5.61    -3.27     0.04    26.57     3.17P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        29   46   +9       4.08    69.99     5.72    70.59     5.65    10.95     0.02    22.82     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.37    57.13    -0.04    79.52     6.31    23.41     2.23    77.99    24.05P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.42    57.44    -5.80    77.37     6.25    14.84     0.97    65.45    16.42P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          30   44   +9       2.27    61.09     8.74    65.91     5.63     8.62     0.00     6.84     1.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         28   44   +2       7.43    83.64     4.65    66.57     5.63    -1.20     0.00     7.06     0.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        26   43   +3       9.10    88.63     6.07    67.87     6.35    -1.30     0.03    12.80     1.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           28   42   +8      -4.63    27.48    -4.77    71.69     5.83    15.74     0.05    30.54     8.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.17    67.14     7.12    67.24     6.37     8.60     0.03    11.90     2.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     26   38   +4      -0.10    49.26     0.17    65.44     6.35     3.79     0.01     7.42     1.40P    0.04R    0.00  
Welling          27   38   +3       2.94    65.12     6.33    62.62     6.19     0.63     0.00     2.96     0.46P    0.15R    0.00  
Forest_Green     26   37  +10      -3.57    31.57     2.02    68.28     6.28    15.82     0.01    16.38     3.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.56    12.71    -8.10    66.43     5.97    10.62     0.01     8.55     2.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         27   35   +1      -5.58    23.27    -4.33    62.12     5.99     2.85     0.00     2.10     0.46P    0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.56    42.34    -0.63    57.28     6.02    -7.33     0.00     0.28     0.05P    1.55R    0.00  
Woking           26   32   -8      -0.10    50.13    -1.62    53.68     6.00   -18.20     0.00     0.05     0.01P    6.30R    0.00  
Southport        27   27  -19      -2.60    36.77    -6.38    47.08     5.74   -29.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.03R    0.01  
Aldershot        26   26   +4      -6.40    19.69    -6.57    60.94     6.23    15.89     0.00     1.63     0.53P    0.51R    0.00  
Chester          26   25  -14      -1.26    44.57     0.34    46.30     5.91   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.37R    0.02  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.12    50.52    -3.83    47.71     6.24   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.68R    0.03  
Dartford         28   19  -27     -10.39     7.04   -11.90    38.30     5.60   -35.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.18R    0.65  
Hyde_United      29    7  -53     -15.05     0.57   -18.62    19.78     4.81   -73.17     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.29  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10