Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 19 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 19 January 2014, Chelsea 3 1 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.50    88.06     2.85    80.98     5.32    36.76    22.96    53.62    81.43    93.29    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.63    59.12     6.46    84.03     4.92    59.56    52.68    80.10    94.50    98.58    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   49  +23       5.97    82.27     2.38    80.71     5.20    38.38    21.59    52.87    80.92    93.43    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.76    53.75     5.02    72.83     5.51    37.46     2.03     8.79    24.63    54.72    90.17     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   43   +3       7.60    87.50    -4.38    68.54     5.49     8.20     0.28     1.56     5.97    19.02    65.78     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.83    77.16     4.37    68.75     5.65    21.49     0.35     1.99     7.37    22.11    68.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +9      -4.19    25.83    -8.29    68.23     5.25    24.10     0.11     1.07     5.12    18.33    68.64     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.86    84.96     6.75    57.90     5.43     3.16     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.48     6.58     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       2.13    63.14     6.99    52.26     5.45     2.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.01     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.85    45.49     1.97    43.36     5.25   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.50R    0.42  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.84    56.70     7.02    39.85     5.26   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.28R    2.15  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.20    50.09    -4.58    38.56     5.10   -27.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.31R    4.24  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.68    40.38    -3.72    39.56     5.17   -20.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.27R    2.51  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.58    19.17    -0.65    42.75     5.61    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.47R    0.85  
Swansea          22   21   -6      -5.35    20.96     0.82    42.64     5.38    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.08R    0.82  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       1.02    58.42     1.55    32.83     4.77   -31.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.52R   27.72  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.68    28.75   -12.03    35.45     5.14   -36.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.91R   14.36  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.73    11.22    -3.45    35.43     5.12   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.52R   10.98  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.39    16.28    -6.17    35.11     5.00   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.77R   13.19  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.60    41.03    -2.90    33.62     5.06   -31.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.34R   22.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Barnsley 2 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       26   57  +20      11.45    94.28     4.90    91.59     6.24    30.95    64.55    85.58    99.74    89.60P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.28    87.04     3.40    85.01     6.25    23.12    17.81    48.97    96.82    62.88P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.64    87.98     8.94    82.67     6.29    25.37    10.96    34.61    93.88    49.67P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   47  +16       6.81    81.45     9.10    79.36     6.38    23.74     4.39    18.08    85.82    33.14P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.21    71.19     6.75    74.97     6.29    18.39     1.15     5.93    64.89    19.65P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   41   +9      -1.23    43.55    -0.96    74.10     6.45    17.72     0.88     4.82    59.40    19.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.58    41.69    -0.40    69.96     6.20    12.31     0.14     0.98    32.06     9.19P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       26   37   +0       0.49    52.95    -1.40    64.46     6.30     0.25     0.01     0.13     8.84     1.87P    0.09R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   36   +8      -1.47    42.61     5.21    64.64     6.34     9.77     0.02     0.14    11.19     2.50P    0.06R    0.01  
Ipswich         26   36   +6       0.49    53.07     6.04    63.27     6.35     5.78     0.01     0.06     7.54     1.55P    0.19R    0.01  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.06    34.34    -5.07    67.68     6.61     6.57     0.07     0.56    21.16     5.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.58    53.61     1.92    62.14     6.28    -0.47     0.00     0.03     4.94     0.90P    0.28R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.25    51.98     6.63    60.25     6.33     2.23     0.00     0.01     3.01     0.56P    0.72R    0.02  
Blackpool       26   32   -8      -2.65    36.58    -6.72    58.04     6.15    -9.94     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.20P    1.56R    0.06  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.71    14.74    -1.86    63.03     6.59     9.83     0.01     0.10     7.98     2.05P    0.26R    0.01  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.28    68.16     0.18    52.85     6.26   -21.96     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   10.64R    1.09  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.88    14.31    -3.89    56.22     6.35    -2.15     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.16P    3.18R    0.17  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.91    17.75    -9.68    55.75     6.37   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P    4.34R    0.34  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -5.78    21.10     2.51    53.03     6.48    -3.50     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    9.02R    0.99  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.27    38.11   -10.04    46.51     5.98   -32.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.40R    8.63  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.95    13.38    -5.96    51.34     6.35   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   13.82R    1.66  
Doncaster       26   24  -21      -0.60    48.14    -4.19    43.59     5.96   -32.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.29R   18.69  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.76    35.59     0.64    40.34     6.03   -30.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.05R   36.38  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.84    19.98    -6.05    41.05     6.07   -30.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.08R   31.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Bristol_City 2 2 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.39    93.68    16.83    91.43     6.42    42.61    41.72    71.83    99.71    79.65P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   56  +21      11.79    94.41     8.18    90.53     6.36    31.62    31.96    63.76    99.57    74.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.97    65.06     2.27    88.92     6.30    36.14    24.42    54.55    99.22    71.29P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.81    90.28     5.17    78.29     6.38    13.23     1.12     5.19    78.86    19.38P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       26   44  +11       8.31    85.53    11.48    70.59     6.51     9.32     0.09     0.57    34.80     5.68P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough    26   42   +8      -1.30    43.20    -3.55    76.21     6.52    18.63     0.59     3.19    70.07    21.95P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         27   42   +6       3.26    66.72     3.33    69.51     6.16     8.20     0.02     0.21    28.29     5.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.54    80.41     3.38    64.37     6.47    -5.66     0.00     0.03     8.89     1.33P    0.44R    0.01  
Swindon         26   37   +6      -5.68    23.05    -4.66    69.88     6.41    14.07     0.04     0.29    33.16     9.32P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons         25   36   +5      -4.03    29.50    -3.72    69.16     6.69    11.48     0.04     0.31    28.93     7.44P    0.06R    0.00  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.65    62.99     1.27    65.18     6.54    15.70     0.01     0.06    12.92     3.13P    0.38R    0.00  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.92    55.52     4.99    58.90     6.31    -3.04     0.00     0.00     1.84     0.30P    3.33R    0.12  
Bradford        26   33   +6       0.97    55.86    11.37    57.87     6.36     1.95     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.22P    4.48R    0.20  
Gillingham      27   32  -10       1.21    57.06    -0.00    53.95     6.15   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   15.43R    1.29  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.28    52.55    -0.01    57.15     6.64    -9.47     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.19P    7.38R    0.51  
Notts_County    27   27   -6      -9.93     9.82    -5.78    52.28     6.17    -7.28     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   20.26R    2.11  
Oldham          26   27   -7      -3.46    32.19     0.44    50.09     6.16   -13.22     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   32.70R    4.41  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.55    48.26    -5.39    47.75     6.09   -30.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    51.21R   10.34  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.05     6.74   -11.11    54.38     6.40    -7.44     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.07P   13.36R    1.20  
Shrewsbury      27   26   -9      -5.98    21.38    -1.74    48.44     5.99   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.04R    7.43  
Tranmere        26   25  -19      -4.82    25.82   -10.04    49.81     6.30   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   36.90R    6.06  
Bristol_City    25   24   -3     -12.01     5.78    -5.25    53.77     6.76    -1.73     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P   16.46R    2.03  
Crewe           26   24  -28      -0.73    47.20    -9.42    42.70     5.92   -42.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.09R   37.67  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -5.81    21.09    -8.05    43.87     6.12   -28.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.44R   26.63  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Bury 0 0 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           26   48  +14       3.40    66.83     0.95    82.35     6.50    24.01    37.95    74.06    97.77    81.67P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             26   46  +10       6.05    78.29     3.63    76.85     6.54    15.02    10.77    40.62    88.43    52.53P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   46   +6       9.13    88.50     3.94    73.56     6.35     6.40     4.14    21.09    75.12    32.14P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.44    67.55     3.43    77.63     6.32    19.50    13.14    46.16    91.97    59.71P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         25   44  +15       1.92    60.06     3.81    79.31     6.54    24.38    21.55    58.26    94.72    70.18P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       25   44  +11       7.20    83.19     7.19    74.34     6.64    13.33     6.16    27.25    79.42    39.13P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   42  +14       3.25    67.13     7.47    73.91     6.51    18.62     5.70    26.30    79.31    40.62P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.82    88.57    12.43    65.44     6.89     3.16     0.45     3.66    29.47     7.93P    0.35R    0.07  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.65    59.17    -1.85    60.99     6.10    -6.70     0.03     0.40     9.07     2.10P    1.36R    0.40  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.14    51.35     2.31    60.04     6.34    -1.79     0.02     0.36     8.17     1.90P    2.19R    0.72  
Plymouth             26   34   -6       2.16    62.69    -1.57    58.79     6.16    -8.96     0.00     0.16     4.89     1.05P    3.23R    1.06  
Cheltenham           26   33   -4      -2.84    35.61    -4.40    59.72     6.35    -4.82     0.01     0.29     7.27     1.93P    2.63R    0.82  
York                 27   32   +0      -1.88    41.10     3.89    55.44     6.01    -3.35     0.00     0.04     1.78     0.38P    7.78R    2.82  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32   -2       1.02    56.34     4.47    56.21     6.25    -6.40     0.00     0.08     2.62     0.55P    7.35R    2.78  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.45    37.78    -3.31    61.19     6.66    -2.31     0.05     0.77    12.13     3.45P    1.83R    0.58  
Hartlepool           26   31   -6      -4.70    27.29    -6.44    58.87     6.45    -4.98     0.01     0.19     5.84     1.52P    3.79R    1.29  
Mansfield            27   30   -9       0.36    53.09     1.72    52.24     6.11   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.09P   22.02R   10.05  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.22    39.22    -0.64    52.37     6.21   -12.83     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.12P   21.03R    9.82  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.51    13.59    -5.39    56.32     6.55    -2.63     0.01     0.08     3.18     0.96P    8.02R    3.12  
Wycombe              25   28   -4      -4.99    25.11    -2.37    55.21     6.54    -6.21     0.00     0.06     2.20     0.52P   10.71R    4.59  
Portsmouth           26   28   -9     -10.22     9.36   -12.92    57.22     6.54    -6.41     0.01     0.13     3.87     1.17P    6.53R    2.55  
Bristol_Rovers       25   27   -4      -4.49    27.27    -0.53    54.04     6.45    -6.20     0.00     0.03     1.44     0.31P   14.06R    6.25  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.77    22.05    -7.57    49.91     6.22   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   35.38R   19.10  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.95    13.18    -8.25    47.31     6.37   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   51.76R   33.98  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Chester 2 1 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.50    81.50    11.93    93.81     5.79    51.34    68.33    99.92    80.12P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    25   53  +27      10.96    94.23    15.39    89.41     6.28    38.73    28.25    98.95    49.34P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.43    94.21     4.14    71.83     5.60    -3.29     0.06    26.54     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        29   46   +9       4.11    70.14     5.77    70.65     5.66    10.95     0.02    23.18     3.82P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.28    56.68    -0.17    79.53     6.33    23.46     2.28    77.84    24.00P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.37    57.11    -5.86    77.39     6.18    14.89     0.91    65.68    17.01P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          30   44   +9       2.16    60.64     8.57    65.97     5.61     8.72     0.00     6.79     1.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         28   44   +2       7.63    84.24     4.98    66.44     5.61    -1.36     0.00     6.70     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        26   43   +3       9.27    88.82     6.28    67.71     6.37    -1.54     0.03    12.38     1.68P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           28   42   +8      -4.56    27.76    -4.65    71.62     5.85    15.62     0.05    30.27     8.10P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.12    67.05     7.13    67.20     6.35     8.57     0.02    12.05     2.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     26   38   +4       0.01    50.42     0.36    65.29     6.31     3.58     0.00     6.93     1.22P    0.05R    0.00  
Welling          27   38   +3       3.16    66.43     6.72    62.44     6.22     0.32     0.00     3.03     0.46P    0.21R    0.00  
Forest_Green     26   37  +10      -3.55    31.56     2.03    68.31     6.27    15.88     0.03    16.31     3.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.87    11.80    -8.59    66.58     5.96    10.85     0.01     9.15     2.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Hereford         27   35   +1      -5.55    23.45    -4.26    62.10     5.97     2.81     0.00     2.17     0.47P    0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.55    42.00    -0.62    57.29     6.01    -7.29     0.00     0.26     0.03P    1.56R    0.00  
Woking           26   32   -8      -0.19    49.67    -1.77    53.66     5.99   -18.24     0.00     0.06     0.01P    6.49R    0.00  
Southport        27   27  -19      -2.64    36.43    -6.47    47.15     5.73   -29.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.94R    0.00  
Aldershot        26   26   +4      -6.53    19.23    -6.81    61.11     6.27    16.15     0.00     1.80     0.52P    0.52R    0.00  
Chester          26   25  -14      -1.21    44.76     0.39    46.33     5.97   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.44R    0.01  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.22    49.91    -4.03    47.80     6.27   -28.46     0.00     0.00     0.00P   31.47R    0.03  
Dartford         28   19  -27     -10.38     7.09   -11.83    38.30     5.58   -35.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.08R    0.64  
Hyde_United      29    7  -53     -15.05     0.60   -18.65    19.77     4.84   -73.25     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.32  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10