Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 18 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   51  +24       7.41    87.95     2.77    81.06     5.33    36.88    24.98    58.30    82.57    93.54    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   50  +38       1.63    59.05     6.49    84.09     4.91    59.64    55.98    82.92    94.85    98.57    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   46  +21       5.00    78.58     1.55    79.16     5.46    36.40    15.88    42.72    72.89    88.55    98.84     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   43  +25       0.67    53.40     4.79    72.89     5.46    37.55     2.20     9.97    27.49    56.30    91.30     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.92    77.66     4.53    68.67     5.64    21.38     0.42     2.29     8.04    22.27    71.01     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   40   +1       6.79    85.19    -5.07    66.47     5.70     5.54     0.11     0.84     3.66    11.72    51.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +11      -3.55    28.36    -7.50    69.61     5.44    26.21     0.43     2.95    10.41    28.53    79.02     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        22   36   +4       6.90    85.00     6.76    57.84     5.39     3.06     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.50     7.15     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   31   +4       2.05    62.78     6.82    52.27     5.46     2.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.14     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      22   24   -7      -0.85    45.83     1.92    43.45     5.24   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.44R    0.39  
Hull             22   23   -6       0.87    57.05     7.08    39.77     5.24   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.71R    2.43  
Norwich          22   23  -17      -0.24    49.58    -4.69    38.63     5.13   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.06R    4.12  
Stoke            22   22  -14      -1.69    40.03    -3.70    39.53     5.18   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.58R    2.65  
Swansea          21   21   -4      -4.46    24.65     1.91    44.25     5.60    -4.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.04R    0.41  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.56    19.22    -0.61    42.70     5.55    -8.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.71R    0.89  
Crystal_Palace   22   20  -17       1.00    58.26     1.50    32.76     4.77   -31.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.10R   28.38  
Fulham           22   19  -26      -3.62    28.92   -11.90    35.36     5.10   -36.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.62R   14.70  
West_Ham         22   18  -11      -7.64    11.76    -3.32    35.40     5.11   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.09R   11.42  
Sunderland       22   18  -15      -6.34    16.33    -6.09    35.06     4.98   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.77R   13.26  
Cardiff          22   18  -21      -1.83    39.72    -3.25    33.84     5.05   -30.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.87R   21.35  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Barnsley 2 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       26   57  +20      11.35    93.88     4.71    91.69     6.22    31.06    65.21    86.00    99.80    89.82P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             26   52  +15       8.27    86.70     3.38    84.96     6.25    23.08    17.31    48.72    96.88    62.57P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   51  +19       8.73    88.16     9.09    82.59     6.30    25.26    10.87    34.47    93.80    49.60P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   47  +16       6.93    81.84     9.32    79.18     6.34    23.43     4.28    17.73    85.01    32.69P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44  +13       4.22    71.40     6.75    75.01     6.25    18.44     1.15     5.93    65.28    19.64P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   41   +9      -1.35    42.86    -1.16    74.27     6.43    17.98     0.94     5.07    60.68    20.68P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   39   +7      -1.54    41.81    -0.34    69.92     6.20    12.27     0.13     1.01    31.95     9.19P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       26   37   +0       0.45    52.65    -1.43    64.48     6.31     0.26     0.01     0.15     8.75     1.92P    0.11R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   36   +8      -1.48    42.57     5.16    64.62     6.31     9.72     0.01     0.17    10.90     2.39P    0.10R    0.01  
Ipswich         26   36   +6       0.63    53.95     6.22    63.19     6.30     5.66     0.00     0.08     7.21     1.56P    0.15R    0.00  
Wigan           25   36   +2      -3.11    34.15    -5.10    67.63     6.53     6.50     0.06     0.52    20.71     5.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    26   35   +0       0.42    52.78     1.71    62.25     6.33    -0.32     0.00     0.05     5.16     0.96P    0.29R    0.01  
Huddersfield    26   34   +4       0.41    52.58     6.89    60.14     6.29     2.04     0.00     0.01     2.98     0.58P    0.62R    0.03  
Blackpool       26   32   -8      -2.76    36.12    -6.85    58.17     6.12    -9.73     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.22P    1.53R    0.08  
Watford         25   31   +5      -7.81    14.47    -2.03    63.19     6.59    10.02     0.01     0.08     8.24     2.18P    0.24R    0.01  
Bournemouth     26   31  -13       3.43    68.81     0.43    52.74     6.24   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   10.83R    1.07  
Birmingham      26   29   -2      -7.73    14.79    -3.71    56.20     6.34    -2.19     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.14P    3.21R    0.16  
Bolton          26   28  -11      -6.84    17.77    -9.53    55.67     6.36   -10.67     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.10P    4.43R    0.33  
Sheff_Wed       25   26   -1      -6.02    20.19     2.17    53.22     6.44    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    8.44R    0.88  
Millwall        26   25  -23      -2.30    38.52   -10.09    46.47     6.00   -32.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.86R    9.01  
Charlton        25   24   -9      -7.85    13.63    -5.86    51.25     6.33   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   14.07R    1.78  
Doncaster       26   24  -21      -0.60    48.10    -4.25    43.56     5.95   -32.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.92R   18.93  
Yeovil          25   20  -17      -2.79    35.38     0.65    40.42     6.05   -30.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.55R   36.03  
Barnsley        25   20  -19      -5.90    19.56    -6.13    41.10     6.06   -30.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.64R   31.69  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Bristol_City 2 2 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   26   57  +32      11.56    94.10    17.05    91.38     6.42    42.53    41.49    71.54    99.73    79.66P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   56  +21      11.86    94.47     8.37    90.40     6.33    31.36    31.55    63.17    99.58    73.33P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.97    64.50     2.29    88.95     6.32    36.22    24.98    54.99    99.15    71.27P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         26   48   +9       9.54    89.75     4.81    78.48     6.41    13.49     1.22     5.65    79.76    20.64P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       26   44  +11       8.29    85.61    11.44    70.63     6.57     9.41     0.09     0.58    35.42     5.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    26   42   +8      -1.03    44.49    -3.16    76.05     6.52    18.32     0.56     3.16    69.17    21.60P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         27   42   +6       3.17    66.21     3.18    69.59     6.15     8.32     0.01     0.17    28.45     5.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       26   39   -2       6.59    80.63     3.47    64.36     6.51    -5.74     0.00     0.04     9.04     1.33P    0.48R    0.01  
Swindon         26   37   +6      -5.50    23.41    -4.41    69.79     6.38    13.97     0.04     0.28    32.22     8.90P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons         25   36   +5      -4.09    29.24    -3.84    69.32     6.66    11.70     0.06     0.35    29.57     7.65P    0.06R    0.00  
Coventry        26   34  +10       2.84    64.16     1.55    65.02     6.55    15.44     0.00     0.08    12.50     3.00P    0.35R    0.01  
Colchester      26   34   +1       0.87    55.38     4.87    58.86     6.32    -3.02     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.29P    3.35R    0.14  
Bradford        26   33   +6       1.22    57.04    11.77    57.61     6.33     1.55     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.21P    4.85R    0.26  
Gillingham      27   32  -10       1.10    56.50    -0.18    54.09     6.15   -16.51     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P   14.75R    1.23  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.09    51.16    -0.33    57.23     6.65    -9.36     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.18P    7.30R    0.49  
Notts_County    27   27   -6      -9.94     9.66    -5.77    52.30     6.14    -7.23     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   20.27R    1.99  
Oldham          26   27   -7      -3.46    32.29     0.42    50.06     6.19   -13.24     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   33.34R    4.58  
Carlisle        26   27  -19      -0.57    48.12    -5.48    47.78     6.11   -30.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.25R   10.24  
Sheff_Utd       26   26   -9     -11.11     6.58   -11.21    54.44     6.39    -7.38     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P   13.37R    1.23  
Shrewsbury      27   26   -9      -6.00    21.77    -1.76    48.40     5.96   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.43R    7.36  
Tranmere        26   25  -19      -4.90    25.73   -10.14    49.88     6.29   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   36.51R    6.05  
Bristol_City    25   24   -3     -12.08     5.55    -5.39    53.78     6.71    -1.66     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P   16.17R    1.88  
Crewe           26   24  -28      -0.61    47.98    -9.21    42.62     5.90   -42.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.52R   38.18  
Stevenage       26   22  -20      -6.00    20.63    -8.33    43.99     6.10   -28.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    72.96R   26.34  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Bury 0 0 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           26   48  +14       3.38    66.89     0.89    82.37     6.43    24.01    38.13    74.37    97.95    82.06P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             26   46  +10       6.06    78.65     3.67    76.73     6.52    14.87    10.38    39.71    88.12    51.95P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   46   +6       9.09    88.69     3.87    73.58     6.34     6.44     4.25    21.38    75.16    32.18P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   45  +12       3.53    67.95     3.55    77.57     6.32    19.43    12.98    46.02    91.71    59.44P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         25   44  +15       1.85    59.71     3.67    79.38     6.54    24.45    21.81    58.98    94.57    70.57P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       25   44  +11       7.35    83.86     7.40    74.26     6.61    13.19     6.08    26.66    79.28    38.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   42  +14       3.16    66.45     7.32    74.02     6.50    18.80     5.79    26.64    79.88    41.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.82    88.83    12.46    65.43     6.86     3.12     0.43     3.66    29.55     7.70P    0.32R    0.06  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.90    60.42    -1.51    60.92     6.06    -6.83     0.02     0.39     8.72     2.07P    1.30R    0.34  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.14    51.27     2.29    60.07     6.35    -1.73     0.03     0.45     8.43     2.15P    2.15R    0.69  
Plymouth             26   34   -6       2.12    62.12    -1.62    58.80     6.11    -8.93     0.00     0.14     4.76     0.99P    3.23R    0.95  
Cheltenham           26   33   -4      -2.84    35.73    -4.42    59.64     6.38    -4.94     0.01     0.26     7.30     1.96P    2.77R    0.92  
York                 27   32   +0      -1.86    40.95     3.95    55.45     5.98    -3.32     0.00     0.04     1.72     0.39P    7.65R    2.65  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32   -2       0.94    55.90     4.38    56.19     6.22    -6.38     0.00     0.05     2.67     0.53P    7.32R    2.71  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.57    36.88    -3.46    61.31     6.60    -2.15     0.07     0.78    12.17     3.45P    1.71R    0.55  
Hartlepool           26   31   -6      -4.59    27.79    -6.30    58.79     6.43    -5.07     0.01     0.19     5.69     1.56P    3.84R    1.39  
Mansfield            27   30   -9       0.28    52.32     1.59    52.32     6.10   -14.10     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.07P   21.55R    9.86  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -7      -2.19    39.12    -0.56    52.35     6.21   -12.94     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.09P   21.34R   10.00  
Bury                 26   28   -4      -8.47    13.55    -5.34    56.30     6.58    -2.69     0.00     0.05     3.30     0.95P    8.16R    3.21  
Wycombe              25   28   -4      -5.02    24.98    -2.38    55.20     6.56    -6.17     0.00     0.06     2.37     0.58P   10.81R    4.60  
Portsmouth           26   28   -9     -10.25     9.33   -12.96    57.33     6.56    -6.30     0.00     0.12     3.99     1.23P    6.34R    2.45  
Bristol_Rovers       25   27   -4      -4.53    26.89    -0.56    54.01     6.43    -6.22     0.00     0.03     1.40     0.33P   13.92R    6.19  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.77    22.11    -7.64    49.89     6.18   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   35.73R   19.29  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.96    13.16    -8.30    47.32     6.44   -18.59     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   51.85R   34.12  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2014, Chester 2 1 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.61    81.61    12.11    93.75     5.84    51.22    68.57    99.90    80.13P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    25   53  +27      11.01    94.17    15.42    89.36     6.35    38.68    28.21    98.71    49.34P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.26    93.85     3.88    71.79     5.63    -3.37     0.06    26.46     3.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        29   46   +9       4.14    70.28     5.76    70.66     5.65    10.99     0.02    23.03     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   45  +14       1.46    57.70     0.10    79.43     6.28    23.25     2.03    77.41    23.37P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.29    56.73    -6.00    77.42     6.20    14.92     0.96    66.01    17.22P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          30   44   +9       2.39    61.47     9.00    65.84     5.61     8.48     0.00     6.43     1.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         28   44   +2       7.46    83.82     4.70    66.57     5.62    -1.18     0.01     7.18     0.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        26   43   +3       9.18    88.80     6.23    67.80     6.40    -1.38     0.02    12.80     1.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           28   42   +8      -4.59    27.70    -4.70    71.65     5.89    15.67     0.05    30.76     8.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.22    67.63     7.25    67.13     6.38     8.42     0.03    11.89     2.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     26   38   +4      -0.03    50.19     0.31    65.33     6.27     3.68     0.01     6.99     1.33P    0.05R    0.00  
Welling          27   38   +3       3.03    65.65     6.48    62.59     6.18     0.58     0.00     2.99     0.47P    0.18R    0.00  
Forest_Green     26   37  +10      -3.51    31.66     2.07    68.32     6.21    15.87     0.02    16.04     3.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.74    12.38    -8.38    66.53     6.00    10.79     0.00     9.28     2.35P    0.03R    0.00  
Hereford         27   35   +1      -5.56    23.09    -4.32    62.16     5.94     2.89     0.00     2.14     0.47P    0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.67    41.47    -0.84    57.38     5.96    -7.17     0.00     0.28     0.04P    1.43R    0.00  
Woking           26   32   -8      -0.13    50.26    -1.65    53.60     5.95   -18.30     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.55R    0.00  
Southport        27   27  -19      -2.61    36.79    -6.45    47.10     5.69   -29.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.93R    0.01  
Aldershot        26   26   +4      -6.46    19.44    -6.62    60.99     6.22    15.94     0.00     1.62     0.48P    0.52R    0.00  
Chester          26   25  -14      -1.30    44.11     0.29    46.39     5.97   -23.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.96R    0.02  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.23    49.76    -4.09    47.83     6.30   -28.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.74R    0.02  
Dartford         28   19  -27     -10.35     7.14   -11.84    38.31     5.57   -35.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.40R    0.59  
Hyde_United      29    7  -53     -15.06     0.55   -18.71    19.74     4.78   -73.16     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.36  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10