Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 17 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 January 2014, Aston_Villa 1 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          21   48  +22       6.97    86.63     2.82    80.40     5.46    36.79    22.74    53.05    77.41    91.18    99.27     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   47  +36       1.24    56.67     7.06    83.77     5.01    60.20    55.07    80.73    93.17    98.06    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   46  +21       5.06    79.15     1.60    79.14     5.43    36.32    16.42    43.18    70.53    87.71    98.94     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        21   42  +25       1.69    59.96     5.85    74.53     5.62    39.70     4.74    16.79    37.56    65.71    94.37     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.80    77.30     4.31    68.75     5.61    21.56     0.43     2.34     7.84    20.61    71.89     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   40   +1       6.65    85.07    -5.33    66.50     5.71     5.60     0.16     0.95     3.59    10.92    51.40     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +11      -3.50    28.52    -7.37    69.51     5.45    26.06     0.45     2.95     9.87    25.53    78.54     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        21   33   +2       5.70    81.33     5.46    55.78     5.64     0.41     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.22     4.18     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      21   30   +4       2.58    66.11     7.04    52.51     5.66     2.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.45     0.03R    0.00  
Hull             21   23   -5       1.62    61.58     7.18    41.25     5.47   -12.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     8.52R    1.17  
Aston_Villa      21   23   -7      -0.87    45.71     1.02    42.60     5.38   -13.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.44R    0.57  
Stoke            21   22  -13      -0.59    47.27    -3.07    41.22     5.41   -19.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.70R    1.35  
Swansea          21   21   -4      -4.49    24.04     1.90    44.30     5.58    -4.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.00R    0.31  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.62    19.00    -0.69    42.73     5.58    -8.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.64R    0.73  
Norwich          21   20  -18      -1.61    40.50    -5.14    37.11     5.30   -28.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.46R    6.73  
Fulham           21   19  -24      -3.21    31.24   -11.74    35.79     5.25   -36.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.17R   11.82  
West_Ham         21   18   -9      -6.75    13.96    -2.17    37.15     5.38   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.41R    6.08  
Cardiff          21   18  -19      -1.26    43.09    -3.50    33.91     5.11   -31.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.11R   18.91  
Sunderland       21   17  -15      -6.01    16.85    -6.26    35.38     5.16   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.91R   10.76  
Crystal_Palace   21   17  -18      -0.41    48.85     1.05    30.83     4.97   -33.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.61R   41.57  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Blackburn 1 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       25   54  +19      10.01    91.73     4.13    90.16     6.47    30.33    59.32    82.08    99.49    87.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   50  +19       9.45    90.56     9.58    83.54     6.46    26.15    17.31    45.30    94.75    57.85P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             25   49  +14       7.22    84.04     3.18    83.78     6.43    22.63    17.07    44.56    94.75    59.41P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   44  +15       5.65    77.46     8.87    77.59     6.55    22.52     3.80    14.78    77.44    29.08P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   41  +10       3.71    69.24     5.36    72.97     6.50    14.89     0.92     4.43    51.08    14.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        25   39   +8      -0.56    47.23     0.11    71.38     6.40    13.39     0.45     2.56    41.08    12.76P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         25   38   +3      -0.31    48.48    -3.13    71.21     6.65     9.80     0.51     2.57    39.58    12.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       25   37   +3       0.56    53.29    -0.35    66.23     6.51     3.96     0.07     0.42    15.16     3.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich         25   36   +7       1.72    59.75     6.77    64.88     6.51     7.19     0.03     0.24    11.90     2.59P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           24   36   +5      -2.59    36.39    -3.41    70.55     6.80    11.75     0.43     2.38    36.66    11.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    25   35   +1       1.27    57.38     1.85    63.77     6.48     0.92     0.02     0.14     8.20     1.64P    0.07R    0.00  
Huddersfield    25   34   +5       1.13    56.61     6.91    61.05     6.47     2.47     0.01     0.05     4.24     0.83P    0.24R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   25   33   +7      -2.54    36.86     5.00    63.30     6.62     9.19     0.02     0.19     8.69     2.08P    0.13R    0.00  
Blackpool       25   32   -6      -1.77    41.12    -5.39    60.01     6.39    -6.97     0.00     0.02     2.47     0.55P    0.47R    0.01  
Watford         24   30   +5      -7.17    15.86    -1.66    63.76     6.85    10.41     0.03     0.24    10.29     2.85P    0.17R    0.00  
Bournemouth     25   30  -13       3.57    69.75    -0.03    53.07     6.56   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.02P    7.08R    0.44  
Birmingham      25   29   +0      -6.78    17.45    -2.35    59.08     6.55     2.07     0.00     0.02     2.28     0.59P    0.79R    0.02  
Bolton          25   28   -5      -7.52    15.29    -6.86    57.69     6.57    -3.60     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.31P    1.36R    0.05  
Sheff_Wed       24   25   -1      -5.94    19.90     1.74    52.85     6.66    -4.30     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    6.49R    0.41  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.93    16.06    -5.53    52.30     6.60   -10.34     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    7.59R    0.63  
Millwall        25   22  -24      -3.84    29.94   -10.94    44.59     6.21   -33.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.35R    7.74  
Doncaster       25   21  -24      -1.38    43.46    -5.86    40.59     6.07   -38.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.14R   21.09  
Yeovil          24   17  -19      -4.18    27.55    -0.81    37.32     6.17   -34.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.89R   40.19  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -6.94    14.75    -7.17    38.94     6.27   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.16R   29.41  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2014, Stevenage 2 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       25   55  +21      12.19    95.29     8.27    90.95     6.54    31.67    35.61    66.09    99.62    75.29P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   25   54  +31      10.54    92.67    17.02    90.57     6.57    42.82    36.93    67.20    99.45    76.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.92    64.64     2.15    88.95     6.29    36.24    25.13    55.41    99.24    71.71P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         25   47   +9      10.03    91.51     4.94    78.95     6.60    13.66     1.65     6.87    80.95    21.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       25   41   +8       7.80    84.89    10.26    68.14     6.72     5.05     0.04     0.27    23.05     3.55P    0.10R    0.00  
Walsall         26   41   +6       3.52    68.24     3.17    69.76     6.37     8.07     0.06     0.33    30.13     6.25P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough    25   39   +5      -1.51    42.29    -4.36    74.69     6.70    15.73     0.35     2.27    61.54    17.92P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         25   37   +8      -4.48    27.14    -3.01    72.03     6.63    17.26     0.15     0.93    46.77    13.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       25   36   -3       5.31    76.26     3.07    62.90     6.72    -6.54     0.00     0.02     6.73     0.95P    1.36R    0.05  
MK_Dons         24   35   +5      -3.73    30.45    -3.85    69.68     6.90    11.72     0.07     0.54    32.51     8.51P    0.09R    0.00  
Coventry        25   33  +10       3.01    65.06     1.16    65.34     6.78    15.29     0.01     0.08    14.62     3.63P    0.54R    0.02  
Bradford        25   32   +6       1.32    57.74    11.41    57.57     6.56     1.01     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.25P    6.33R    0.41  
Colchester      25   31   -1      -0.16    50.02     3.69    56.91     6.46    -5.50     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.17P    7.93R    0.55  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.18    51.70    -0.18    57.12     6.63    -9.52     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.20P    8.45R    0.73  
Gillingham      26   29  -12       0.05    51.29    -1.17    51.37     6.29   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   30.41R    4.57  
Oldham          25   27   -6      -2.68    36.18     0.65    51.62     6.38   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   27.66R    3.89  
Carlisle        25   27  -17       0.36    53.35    -4.35    49.43     6.36   -27.63     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   43.34R    8.43  
Shrewsbury      26   26   -6      -5.48    23.13    -0.08    50.41     6.21   -10.27     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   33.32R    5.46  
Sheff_Utd       25   25   -9     -10.55     7.36   -10.96    55.16     6.59    -6.86     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.12P   13.02R    1.45  
Tranmere        25   25  -16      -4.76    26.10    -9.08    51.22     6.53   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   31.69R    5.39  
Notts_County    26   24   -7     -11.24     6.60    -6.23    50.56     6.39    -8.45     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   32.19R    5.79  
Crewe           25   24  -27       0.03    51.72    -9.45    43.51     6.11   -42.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.73R   37.39  
Bristol_City    24   23   -3     -11.72     5.74    -5.42    54.12     6.98    -1.76     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.16P   17.41R    2.42  
Stevenage       25   22  -19      -4.88    24.91    -7.62    45.33     6.28   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    67.38R   23.45  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           25   47  +14       4.07    70.12     1.32    83.48     6.70    25.21    43.15    81.37    98.36    86.84P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   45   +6       9.27    89.33     3.72    73.89     6.58     6.28     4.53    26.08    76.56    36.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         24   44  +18       2.41    63.06     5.56    81.42     6.70    28.42    31.42    73.23    97.01    81.20P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             25   43   +7       5.62    77.41     2.40    74.84     6.73    11.45     6.15    32.32    81.38    44.18P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             25   42   +9       2.91    65.35     1.91    75.20     6.58    15.40     7.00    34.98    83.88    49.45P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   41   +9       6.31    80.47     6.27    72.34     6.82    10.75     3.56    21.22    70.02    32.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +13       1.98    60.84     6.99    72.20     6.72    17.57     3.57    21.65    71.44    35.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.78    88.59    12.43    65.42     6.84     3.11     0.40     4.19    30.90     8.56P    0.34R    0.09  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.88    60.42    -1.54    61.04     6.12    -6.66     0.02     0.53     9.98     2.51P    1.30R    0.36  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.10    51.13     2.27    60.02     6.29    -1.84     0.01     0.46     8.89     2.31P    2.09R    0.60  
Plymouth             25   34   -3       2.46    64.23    -0.04    60.31     6.32    -5.76     0.04     0.49     8.92     2.15P    1.97R    0.56  
Cheltenham           25   33   -3      -1.59    41.78    -3.59    61.69     6.60    -2.97     0.05     0.98    13.88     4.00P    1.51R    0.45  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.66    36.61    -3.63    61.30     6.67    -2.15     0.04     0.95    13.46     4.11P    1.74R    0.55  
York                 26   31   +0      -1.51    42.46     4.01    55.97     6.25    -3.17     0.01     0.10     2.73     0.69P    6.96R    2.41  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   31   -2       1.00    56.34     4.06    55.82     6.42    -7.64     0.00     0.12     2.85     0.71P    8.57R    3.19  
Hartlepool           25   31   -4      -4.11    29.34    -5.53    60.49     6.61    -2.62     0.03     0.56    10.79     3.35P    2.24R    0.75  
Mansfield            26   29   -9       0.28    52.66     1.00    52.15     6.28   -14.93     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.12P   22.25R   10.34  
Wycombe              24   28   -3      -4.02    29.54    -1.88    56.67     6.80    -5.04     0.01     0.21     4.58     1.27P    7.69R    3.16  
Bury                 25   27   -4      -8.11    14.06    -5.31    57.01     6.83    -2.18     0.00     0.20     4.98     1.62P    7.09R    2.75  
Portsmouth           25   27   -9      -9.61    10.32   -12.55    58.24     6.77    -5.46     0.01     0.28     6.16     2.13P    5.20R    2.04  
Bristol_Rovers       24   26   -4      -4.21    28.06    -0.58    54.29     6.65    -6.38     0.00     0.06     1.97     0.49P   13.32R    5.59  
Accrington_Stanley   25   26   -8      -3.70    31.24    -1.35    50.09     6.40   -14.85     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P   32.89R   17.33  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.90    21.61    -7.77    49.99     6.26   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   33.97R   17.47  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.94    13.21    -8.19    47.27     6.38   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   50.83R   32.34  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2014, Gateshead 0 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.54    81.34    12.09    93.83     5.84    51.37    66.39    99.87    78.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.41    95.34    15.52    89.70     6.52    38.55    29.29    98.64    49.71P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.23    93.97     3.84    71.89     5.60    -3.25     0.07    25.26     2.82P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        28   45   +9       4.20    70.92     5.33    70.39     5.83    10.02     0.02    21.35     3.52P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.36    57.10    -5.78    77.40     6.24    14.86     0.96    64.41    16.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.07    61.25     0.51    80.61     6.49    24.41     3.05    80.99    25.56P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          29   43   +9       2.48    62.35     8.47    66.34     5.87     8.70     0.00     7.88     1.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.46    32.21    -4.03    73.65     6.04    17.51     0.15    42.47    11.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         27   41   +1       6.30    80.03     4.44    64.89     5.86    -2.32     0.00     4.40     0.56P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        25   40   +2       8.18    86.44     6.19    66.78     6.59    -1.49     0.01    10.06     1.36P    0.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.24    67.90     7.24    67.22     6.38     8.58     0.03    11.26     1.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.88    55.16     0.71    66.74     6.49     4.71     0.01    10.17     1.81P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.82    12.15    -8.40    66.58     5.99    10.91     0.01     8.62     2.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Welling          26   35   +0       2.98    65.87     6.02    60.79     6.45    -2.79     0.00     1.75     0.30P    0.56R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.79    30.21     0.38    66.22     6.47    11.10     0.01     9.62     1.97P    0.03R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.90    21.51    -5.34    60.59     6.16    -0.09     0.00     1.27     0.26P    0.46R    0.00  
Woking           25   32   -5       0.11    51.33    -0.50    55.24     6.24   -14.72     0.00     0.16     0.01P    4.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.58    42.09    -0.71    57.28     5.99    -7.36     0.00     0.25     0.04P    1.46R    0.00  
Southport        26   27  -16      -2.39    37.61    -5.38    48.22     5.93   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.76R    0.01  
Aldershot        26   26   +4      -6.40    19.61    -6.54    60.92     6.25    15.78     0.00     1.57     0.49P    0.44R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.29    49.38    -4.21    47.79     6.27   -28.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.11R    0.06  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.72    35.75    -0.43    44.02     6.12   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.84R    0.19  
Dartford         27   19  -26      -9.61     8.35   -11.82    39.17     5.75   -35.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.18R    1.07  
Hyde_United      28    7  -49     -14.83     0.66   -17.61    21.19     5.12   -68.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   98.66  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10