Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 16 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 January 2014, Aston_Villa 1 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          21   48  +22       6.89    86.39     2.67    80.45     5.45    36.90    23.04    53.22    77.62    91.35    99.26     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   47  +36       1.22    56.63     7.04    83.76     5.03    60.17    54.95    80.64    93.15    97.98    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   46  +21       5.20    79.65     1.79    79.05     5.46    36.19    16.13    42.76    69.91    87.21    98.81     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        21   42  +25       1.78    60.64     5.94    74.50     5.63    39.63     4.76    16.90    37.67    65.53    94.21     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.77    77.06     4.27    68.80     5.64    21.61     0.47     2.47     8.09    21.00    71.86     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   40   +1       6.63    84.93    -5.37    66.60     5.68     5.74     0.17     1.00     3.65    10.95    51.79     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +11      -3.56    28.07    -7.48    69.55     5.41    26.17     0.49     3.00     9.86    25.75    78.69     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        21   33   +2       5.73    81.26     5.51    55.77     5.63     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.20     4.10     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      21   30   +4       2.61    66.58     7.09    52.48     5.64     2.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     1.32     0.04R    0.00  
Hull             21   23   -5       1.73    62.38     7.40    41.15     5.48   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.06R    1.22  
Aston_Villa      21   23   -7      -0.96    45.14     0.93    42.64     5.37   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.50R    0.64  
Stoke            21   22  -13      -0.66    46.57    -3.11    41.25     5.43   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.56R    1.44  
Swansea          21   21   -4      -4.54    23.93     1.80    44.26     5.57    -4.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.09R    0.33  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.54    19.19    -0.59    42.72     5.58    -8.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.78R    0.74  
Norwich          21   20  -18      -1.53    41.17    -5.07    37.05     5.35   -28.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.93R    7.11  
Fulham           21   19  -24      -3.29    30.54   -11.84    35.85     5.25   -36.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.43R   11.54  
West_Ham         21   18   -9      -6.81    13.93    -2.27    37.21     5.34   -16.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.92R    5.52  
Cardiff          21   18  -19      -1.30    42.90    -3.61    33.95     5.13   -31.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.59R   18.96  
Sunderland       21   17  -15      -5.98    17.30    -6.20    35.38     5.18   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.16R   10.94  
Crystal_Palace   21   17  -18      -0.40    48.98     1.10    30.80     4.98   -33.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.91R   41.57  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Blackburn 1 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       25   54  +19      10.28    92.27     4.56    89.93     6.48    29.92    57.86    81.09    99.30    86.05P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   50  +19       9.21    89.77     9.25    83.78     6.55    26.45    18.76    46.86    94.70    58.82P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             25   49  +14       7.36    84.52     3.37    83.59     6.46    22.38    16.81    43.31    94.47    58.13P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   44  +15       5.55    77.18     8.67    77.71     6.57    22.73     4.13    15.57    77.84    29.74P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   41  +10       3.75    69.69     5.40    73.01     6.47    14.95     0.84     4.32    51.45    14.97P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   39   +8      -0.53    47.09     0.11    71.36     6.42    13.37     0.47     2.59    40.71    12.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading         25   38   +3      -0.53    47.20    -3.43    71.43     6.64    10.06     0.51     2.73    40.62    12.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       25   37   +3       0.79    54.55    -0.01    66.03     6.49     3.64     0.05     0.36    14.24     3.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich         25   36   +7       1.57    59.13     6.61    65.00     6.50     7.31     0.05     0.27    12.18     2.66P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           24   36   +5      -2.54    36.20    -3.32    70.50     6.80    11.71     0.45     2.26    36.29    11.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    25   35   +1       1.38    57.90     2.00    63.65     6.55     0.73     0.01     0.17     8.24     1.79P    0.09R    0.00  
Huddersfield    25   34   +5       1.04    56.47     6.82    61.12     6.48     2.59     0.01     0.05     4.32     0.80P    0.27R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   25   33   +7      -2.53    36.80     5.03    63.36     6.59     9.27     0.02     0.18     8.64     2.07P    0.12R    0.00  
Blackpool       25   32   -6      -1.89    40.41    -5.64    60.12     6.35    -6.83     0.00     0.02     2.40     0.49P    0.48R    0.01  
Watford         24   30   +5      -7.26    15.84    -1.84    63.84     6.83    10.51     0.02     0.20    10.34     2.81P    0.17R    0.01  
Bournemouth     25   30  -13       3.65    70.33     0.09    53.04     6.48   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P    6.90R    0.40  
Birmingham      25   29   +0      -6.75    17.61    -2.28    58.99     6.54     1.95     0.00     0.01     2.25     0.51P    0.72R    0.02  
Bolton          25   28   -5      -7.49    15.22    -6.87    57.80     6.58    -3.42     0.00     0.01     1.39     0.36P    1.46R    0.08  
Sheff_Wed       24   25   -1      -5.90    20.11     1.79    52.82     6.63    -4.35     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.06P    6.56R    0.43  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -7.01    15.95    -5.55    52.40     6.59   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    7.57R    0.54  
Millwall        25   22  -24      -3.74    30.53   -10.77    44.51     6.18   -33.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.89R    7.82  
Doncaster       25   21  -24      -1.45    43.18    -6.01    40.60     6.07   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.55R   21.07  
Yeovil          24   17  -19      -4.11    27.58    -0.71    37.21     6.14   -34.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.18R   40.45  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.03    14.31    -7.27    38.95     6.26   -33.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.96R   29.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2014, Stevenage 2 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       25   55  +21      12.13    95.22     8.21    91.01     6.54    31.75    35.86    66.51    99.60    75.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   25   54  +31      10.46    92.50    16.93    90.58     6.57    42.90    36.73    67.15    99.54    76.08P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.92    64.47     2.17    88.94     6.31    36.19    24.97    55.06    99.27    71.37P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         25   47   +9       9.97    91.20     4.87    79.01     6.60    13.75     1.75     7.08    81.39    21.65P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       25   41   +8       7.93    85.27    10.39    68.04     6.67     4.89     0.02     0.24    22.62     3.53P    0.10R    0.00  
Walsall         26   41   +6       3.44    67.89     3.01    69.87     6.36     8.20     0.05     0.32    30.73     6.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    25   39   +5      -1.32    43.20    -4.06    74.52     6.74    15.49     0.40     2.12    60.85    17.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         25   37   +8      -4.59    26.61    -3.14    72.11     6.61    17.39     0.14     0.92    47.27    13.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       25   36   -3       5.34    76.42     3.14    62.81     6.76    -6.65     0.00     0.02     6.74     0.97P    1.54R    0.06  
MK_Dons         24   35   +5      -3.57    31.24    -3.61    69.57     6.91    11.55     0.08     0.50    32.21     8.54P    0.13R    0.00  
Coventry        25   33  +10       3.06    65.48     1.24    65.18     6.76    15.12     0.00     0.08    14.03     3.42P    0.52R    0.01  
Bradford        25   32   +6       1.17    56.83    11.14    57.77     6.53     1.27     0.00     0.00     1.73     0.30P    5.75R    0.42  
Colchester      25   31   -1      -0.27    49.24     3.51    56.90     6.50    -5.46     0.00     0.00     1.13     0.17P    8.12R    0.60  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.18    51.70    -0.18    57.15     6.64    -9.53     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.19P    8.45R    0.63  
Gillingham      26   29  -12       0.20    52.09    -0.97    51.26     6.30   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.00P   31.18R    4.68  
Oldham          25   27   -6      -2.65    36.41     0.67    51.59     6.43   -12.07     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   28.03R    3.95  
Carlisle        25   27  -17       0.21    52.16    -4.64    49.58     6.35   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    42.67R    8.01  
Shrewsbury      26   26   -6      -5.51    23.05    -0.11    50.40     6.19   -10.27     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   33.25R    5.41  
Sheff_Utd       25   25   -9     -10.49     7.28   -10.92    55.18     6.57    -6.83     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.13P   13.01R    1.35  
Tranmere        25   25  -16      -4.75    26.20    -9.06    51.16     6.54   -20.21     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   32.06R    5.47  
Notts_County    26   24   -7     -11.33     6.38    -6.34    50.66     6.35    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   31.69R    5.20  
Crewe           25   24  -27       0.31    53.30    -8.95    43.26     6.08   -42.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    80.04R   39.06  
Bristol_City    24   23   -3     -11.84     5.62    -5.58    54.30     6.99    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.17P   16.91R    2.44  
Stevenage       25   22  -19      -4.91    24.73    -7.71    45.46     6.31   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    66.50R   22.69  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           25   47  +14       3.89    69.32     1.03    83.71     6.68    25.55    43.84    82.01    98.50    87.38P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   45   +6       9.41    89.74     3.91    73.83     6.54     6.20     4.44    25.33    76.27    36.10P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   44  +18       2.28    62.15     5.38    81.48     6.73    28.50    31.00    73.64    97.03    81.54P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             25   43   +7       5.66    77.53     2.51    74.92     6.69    11.58     5.88    32.47    81.53    44.54P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             25   42   +9       2.79    64.62     1.79    75.32     6.57    15.61     7.13    35.47    84.26    49.88P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   41   +9       6.32    80.57     6.26    72.31     6.82    10.75     3.51    20.58    69.95    31.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +13       1.94    60.44     6.91    72.23     6.74    17.59     3.48    21.41    71.45    35.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.75    88.59    12.36    65.38     6.87     3.04     0.48     4.01    30.63     8.62P    0.30R    0.08  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.80    59.94    -1.61    61.05     6.14    -6.68     0.04     0.61    10.08     2.65P    1.26R    0.31  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0      -0.10    50.02     1.98    60.17     6.34    -1.62     0.02     0.49     9.38     2.38P    1.97R    0.64  
Plymouth             25   34   -3       2.41    63.86    -0.08    60.32     6.38    -5.73     0.01     0.49     9.09     2.25P    2.02R    0.59  
Cheltenham           25   33   -3      -1.62    41.79    -3.69    61.77     6.58    -2.86     0.04     1.00    14.01     4.09P    1.43R    0.45  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.53    37.03    -3.41    61.19     6.65    -2.31     0.05     0.89    12.93     3.75P    1.64R    0.49  
York                 26   31   +0      -1.60    42.16     3.92    56.02     6.24    -3.13     0.00     0.08     2.73     0.57P    6.97R    2.42  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   31   -2       0.96    56.12     3.94    55.83     6.41    -7.64     0.01     0.11     2.89     0.62P    8.19R    3.02  
Hartlepool           25   31   -4      -4.06    29.76    -5.42    60.46     6.63    -2.69     0.05     0.70    10.63     3.27P    2.17R    0.72  
Mansfield            26   29   -9       0.31    52.64     1.08    52.09     6.34   -15.05     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.12P   22.63R   10.65  
Wycombe              24   28   -3      -4.11    29.08    -2.01    56.77     6.76    -4.95     0.01     0.19     4.50     1.24P    7.21R    2.90  
Bury                 25   27   -4      -7.81    15.30    -4.89    56.86     6.88    -2.43     0.01     0.19     4.89     1.46P    7.47R    2.93  
Portsmouth           25   27   -9      -9.54    10.37   -12.43    58.16     6.76    -5.61     0.01     0.26     6.00     1.95P    5.37R    2.06  
Bristol_Rovers       24   26   -4      -4.25    27.91    -0.58    54.27     6.70    -6.41     0.00     0.06     2.03     0.50P   13.29R    5.70  
Accrington_Stanley   25   26   -8      -3.66    31.38    -1.34    50.01     6.34   -14.95     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.06P   33.03R   16.83  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.65    22.76    -7.45    49.90     6.22   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   34.16R   17.68  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.91    13.07    -8.19    47.18     6.35   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   50.87R   32.53  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2014, Gateshead 0 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.49    81.28    11.91    93.93     5.80    51.52    66.69    99.93    78.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.33    95.22    15.40    89.74     6.51    38.62    29.00    98.63    49.46P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.28    94.03     3.96    71.89     5.62    -3.26     0.05    25.68     2.73P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        28   45   +9       4.23    71.09     5.43    70.37     5.83     9.97     0.03    21.33     3.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.41    57.14    -5.72    77.35     6.23    14.78     0.81    64.09    15.62P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.05    60.89     0.45    80.67     6.59    24.50     3.20    80.85    25.58P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          29   43   +9       2.62    63.11     8.80    66.15     5.87     8.39     0.00     7.44     1.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.43    32.62    -4.02    73.65     6.08    17.53     0.15    42.33    11.79P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         27   41   +1       6.27    79.93     4.42    64.88     5.87    -2.39     0.00     4.47     0.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        25   40   +2       7.97    85.96     5.93    66.89     6.56    -1.31     0.03    10.15     1.34P    0.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.15    67.19     7.11    67.22     6.38     8.58     0.01    11.38     1.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.86    54.85     0.65    66.83     6.52     4.87     0.01    10.57     1.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.77    12.09    -8.28    66.52     5.97    10.81     0.00     8.63     2.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          26   35   +0       2.94    65.78     5.98    60.77     6.47    -2.83     0.00     1.72     0.26P    0.58R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.78    30.16     0.39    66.22     6.49    11.09     0.01     9.64     2.12P    0.05R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.81    21.84    -5.24    60.52     6.15    -0.17     0.00     1.24     0.24P    0.45R    0.00  
Woking           25   32   -5       0.16    51.42    -0.43    55.23     6.23   -14.78     0.00     0.16     0.02P    3.97R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.45    43.00    -0.49    57.19     5.98    -7.40     0.00     0.24     0.03P    1.55R    0.00  
Southport        26   27  -16      -2.55    36.84    -5.67    48.37     5.88   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.76R    0.02  
Aldershot        26   26   +4      -6.46    19.14    -6.61    61.02     6.23    15.90     0.00     1.53     0.45P    0.48R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.18    49.86    -3.98    47.72     6.30   -28.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.79R    0.05  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.70    36.29    -0.42    44.01     6.17   -25.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.80R    0.18  
Dartford         27   19  -26      -9.63     8.06   -11.84    39.10     5.73   -35.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.45R    0.97  
Hyde_United      28    7  -49     -14.86     0.63   -17.73    21.18     5.11   -68.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   98.78  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10