Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 15 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 January 2014, Aston_Villa 1 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          21   48  +22       7.10    87.28     2.98    80.41     5.45    36.78    22.99    53.06    77.54    91.15    99.29     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   47  +36       1.30    56.95     7.18    83.75     5.00    60.13    54.89    80.77    93.36    98.07    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   46  +21       5.07    79.09     1.58    79.15     5.44    36.40    16.53    43.34    70.22    87.56    98.86     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        21   42  +25       1.71    60.22     5.83    74.49     5.65    39.63     4.57    16.77    37.80    65.72    94.26     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.91    77.61     4.48    68.64     5.62    21.34     0.40     2.31     7.70    20.75    71.35     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   40   +1       6.70    85.18    -5.21    66.45     5.65     5.51     0.15     0.89     3.51    10.59    51.48     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +11      -3.58    27.89    -7.53    69.54     5.42    26.11     0.47     2.87     9.85    25.87    79.01     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        21   33   +2       5.58    81.18     5.24    55.92     5.61     0.62     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.27     4.25     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      21   30   +4       2.47    65.58     6.92    52.62     5.65     2.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.52     0.05R    0.00  
Hull             21   23   -5       1.65    61.94     7.30    41.20     5.46   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     8.96R    1.18  
Aston_Villa      21   23   -7      -0.86    45.56     1.09    42.58     5.37   -13.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.42R    0.70  
Stoke            21   22  -13      -0.61    47.22    -3.06    41.25     5.42   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.73R    1.41  
Swansea          21   21   -4      -4.36    24.80     2.05    44.20     5.58    -4.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.30R    0.35  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.62    18.84    -0.72    42.74     5.58    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.73R    0.76  
Norwich          21   20  -18      -1.61    40.57    -5.20    37.12     5.31   -28.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.31R    6.75  
Fulham           21   19  -24      -3.28    30.64   -11.85    35.84     5.23   -36.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.62R   11.39  
West_Ham         21   18   -9      -6.85    13.65    -2.30    37.21     5.38   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.36R    5.63  
Cardiff          21   18  -19      -1.32    42.88    -3.64    33.90     5.11   -31.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.92R   19.14  
Sunderland       21   17  -15      -6.01    17.05    -6.24    35.36     5.20   -24.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.06R   11.15  
Crystal_Palace   21   17  -18      -0.42    48.93     1.10    30.85     4.98   -33.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.55R   41.55  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Blackburn 1 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       25   54  +19      10.09    91.89     4.27    90.15     6.46    30.29    59.08    82.03    99.40    86.92P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   50  +19       9.39    90.26     9.50    83.62     6.48    26.23    17.53    45.18    94.63    57.41P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             25   49  +14       7.17    84.07     3.13    83.76     6.50    22.66    17.08    44.80    94.60    59.44P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   44  +15       5.69    77.69     8.87    77.68     6.58    22.62     3.94    15.05    77.98    29.34P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   41  +10       3.76    69.72     5.38    72.98     6.49    14.84     0.83     4.22    51.11    14.77P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   39   +8      -0.62    46.46     0.01    71.39     6.45    13.43     0.49     2.64    41.19    13.00P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         25   38   +3      -0.50    47.68    -3.37    71.32     6.63     9.92     0.49     2.56    39.93    12.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       25   37   +3       0.71    54.25    -0.12    66.15     6.52     3.81     0.05     0.40    14.78     3.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich         25   36   +7       1.54    58.80     6.54    65.05     6.52     7.42     0.04     0.30    12.37     2.67P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           24   36   +5      -2.60    36.04    -3.42    70.51     6.82    11.69     0.42     2.25    36.58    11.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    25   35   +1       1.42    58.24     2.05    63.61     6.51     0.68     0.01     0.15     7.99     1.64P    0.11R    0.00  
Huddersfield    25   34   +5       1.14    56.82     6.95    60.98     6.46     2.40     0.00     0.05     4.04     0.80P    0.24R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   25   33   +7      -2.61    36.67     4.89    63.34     6.55     9.23     0.01     0.15     8.60     1.97P    0.13R    0.01  
Blackpool       25   32   -6      -1.76    40.85    -5.39    60.08     6.37    -6.91     0.00     0.02     2.60     0.55P    0.50R    0.01  
Watford         24   30   +5      -7.19    15.84    -1.72    63.76     6.79    10.42     0.02     0.18    10.16     2.86P    0.13R    0.01  
Bournemouth     25   30  -13       3.79    71.01     0.31    52.86     6.47   -22.63     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    7.32R    0.49  
Birmingham      25   29   +0      -6.66    17.98    -2.17    58.92     6.55     1.88     0.00     0.01     2.15     0.50P    0.83R    0.02  
Bolton          25   28   -5      -7.39    15.40    -6.67    57.70     6.58    -3.54     0.00     0.01     1.25     0.29P    1.50R    0.08  
Sheff_Wed       24   25   -1      -5.95    19.69     1.71    52.86     6.63    -4.27     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    6.42R    0.43  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -7.09    15.39    -5.69    52.46     6.54   -10.17     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    7.16R    0.50  
Millwall        25   22  -24      -3.95    29.05   -11.08    44.64     6.18   -33.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.09R    7.59  
Doncaster       25   21  -24      -1.37    43.56    -5.92    40.59     6.10   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.92R   21.58  
Yeovil          24   17  -19      -4.18    27.45    -0.88    37.31     6.20   -34.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.11R   40.01  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -6.98    14.39    -7.18    38.92     6.26   -33.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.47R   29.28  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2014, Stevenage 2 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       25   55  +21      12.12    95.19     8.19    90.98     6.55    31.73    35.93    66.26    99.55    75.49P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   25   54  +31      10.51    92.66    16.99    90.51     6.58    42.79    36.29    66.67    99.51    76.11P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.91    64.51     2.14    88.98     6.29    36.26    25.41    55.59    99.26    71.66P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         25   47   +9      10.16    91.55     5.13    78.91     6.62    13.62     1.66     7.03    80.87    21.36P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       25   41   +8       7.81    84.64    10.25    68.15     6.72     5.03     0.03     0.24    23.22     3.62P    0.10R    0.00  
Walsall         26   41   +6       3.47    67.70     3.08    69.86     6.38     8.21     0.04     0.34    31.17     6.45P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough    25   39   +5      -1.39    42.89    -4.17    74.57     6.69    15.56     0.37     2.18    60.92    17.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         25   37   +8      -4.58    26.84    -3.11    72.04     6.63    17.29     0.16     1.02    46.92    13.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       25   36   -3       5.37    76.48     3.17    62.84     6.71    -6.62     0.00     0.02     6.73     0.97P    1.43R    0.06  
MK_Dons         24   35   +5      -3.56    31.10    -3.57    69.60     6.89    11.55     0.08     0.55    32.09     8.49P    0.11R    0.00  
Coventry        25   33  +10       3.05    65.59     1.24    65.27     6.78    15.23     0.02     0.11    14.28     3.53P    0.51R    0.02  
Bradford        25   32   +6       1.50    58.48    11.61    57.52     6.51     0.92     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.20P    6.28R    0.41  
Colchester      25   31   -1      -0.23    49.55     3.62    56.90     6.44    -5.47     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.15P    7.94R    0.61  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.03    50.69    -0.34    57.25     6.63    -9.33     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.20P    8.11R    0.59  
Gillingham      26   29  -12       0.01    50.95    -1.27    51.43     6.34   -20.26     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   30.40R    4.59  
Oldham          25   27   -6      -2.65    36.30     0.71    51.54     6.44   -12.12     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   28.38R    4.03  
Carlisle        25   27  -17       0.27    52.57    -4.53    49.46     6.28   -27.58     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   43.07R    8.12  
Shrewsbury      26   26   -6      -5.57    22.47    -0.19    50.48     6.20   -10.18     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   32.84R    5.30  
Sheff_Utd       25   25   -9     -10.64     7.16   -11.09    55.33     6.63    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.15P   12.69R    1.33  
Tranmere        25   25  -16      -4.73    25.92    -9.04    51.17     6.48   -20.19     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   31.96R    5.19  
Notts_County    26   24   -7     -11.29     6.51    -6.32    50.61     6.38    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   32.09R    5.56  
Crewe           25   24  -27       0.07    51.90    -9.36    43.38     6.08   -42.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   79.25R   38.03  
Bristol_City    24   23   -3     -11.77     5.77    -5.51    54.18     7.00    -1.66     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.14P   17.29R    2.53  
Stevenage       25   22  -19      -4.85    24.99    -7.62    45.33     6.33   -27.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.49R   23.62  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           25   47  +14       3.94    69.59     1.11    83.64     6.64    25.41    44.14    81.80    98.49    87.15P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   45   +6       9.27    89.34     3.71    73.85     6.62     6.25     4.55    25.36    76.13    35.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         24   44  +18       2.46    63.26     5.62    81.40     6.67    28.38    30.33    73.20    97.06    81.09P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             25   43   +7       5.51    76.75     2.27    75.00     6.71    11.68     6.29    33.00    81.81    45.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             25   42   +9       2.90    65.07     1.93    75.21     6.60    15.44     6.84    34.82    83.78    49.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   41   +9       6.26    80.46     6.19    72.39     6.83    10.83     3.69    21.31    70.28    32.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +13       1.95    60.44     6.93    72.19     6.73    17.54     3.50    21.20    71.68    35.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.77    88.42    12.41    65.47     6.93     3.15     0.42     4.41    31.03     9.05P    0.31R    0.08  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.94    60.36    -1.42    60.93     6.13    -6.84     0.03     0.47     9.73     2.45P    1.36R    0.40  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.02    50.89     2.13    60.04     6.31    -1.78     0.02     0.42     8.97     2.28P    1.90R    0.54  
Plymouth             25   34   -3       2.45    64.03    -0.02    60.29     6.34    -5.79     0.02     0.50     8.92     2.12P    2.02R    0.57  
Cheltenham           25   33   -3      -1.55    42.37    -3.58    61.70     6.60    -2.91     0.06     1.03    13.84     4.21P    1.48R    0.42  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.60    36.75    -3.49    61.20     6.66    -2.31     0.04     0.90    12.98     3.86P    1.66R    0.52  
York                 26   31   +0      -1.41    43.35     4.16    55.91     6.26    -3.29     0.01     0.06     2.58     0.57P    7.21R    2.43  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   31   -2       0.90    55.70     3.97    55.83     6.42    -7.64     0.00     0.09     2.83     0.57P    8.40R    3.12  
Hartlepool           25   31   -4      -4.26    28.95    -5.73    60.69     6.62    -2.37     0.04     0.73    11.33     3.63P    2.12R    0.68  
Mansfield            26   29   -9       0.41    53.30     1.31    52.03     6.24   -15.14     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.11P   22.79R   10.37  
Wycombe              24   28   -3      -3.90    29.84    -1.71    56.60     6.78    -5.15     0.01     0.17     4.43     1.17P    7.76R    3.03  
Bury                 25   27   -4      -8.02    14.34    -5.17    56.97     6.81    -2.25     0.00     0.20     4.72     1.51P    7.08R    2.82  
Portsmouth           25   27   -9      -9.69    10.21   -12.66    58.27     6.78    -5.43     0.02     0.27     6.20     2.10P    5.26R    2.01  
Bristol_Rovers       24   26   -4      -4.35    27.30    -0.71    54.29     6.66    -6.41     0.00     0.04     1.99     0.52P   13.30R    5.81  
Accrington_Stanley   25   26   -8      -3.56    31.95    -1.19    50.01     6.38   -14.96     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.07P   32.91R   17.29  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.88    21.88    -7.74    49.97     6.23   -17.88     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.06P   33.96R   17.94  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -8.00    12.86    -8.31    47.34     6.40   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   50.45R   31.97  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2014, Gateshead 0 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.52    81.09    11.99    93.89     5.81    51.45    66.33    99.90    78.81P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.33    95.19    15.41    89.77     6.49    38.69    29.45    98.73    49.35P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.50    94.33     4.26    71.80     5.59    -3.42     0.05    24.98     2.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        28   45   +9       3.98    69.81     5.02    70.43     5.81    10.12     0.03    21.49     3.65P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.28    56.70    -5.91    77.40     6.24    14.87     0.84    64.20    16.23P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.13    61.50     0.53    80.62     6.51    24.40     3.06    81.24    25.45P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          29   43   +9       2.58    62.75     8.73    66.26     5.83     8.53     0.01     7.66     1.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.53    31.85    -4.15    73.76     6.05    17.69     0.16    43.29    11.96P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         27   41   +1       6.22    79.87     4.35    64.98     5.79    -2.24     0.00     4.35     0.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        25   40   +2       8.09    86.21     6.08    66.79     6.61    -1.45     0.03     9.94     1.31P    0.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.14    67.16     7.11    67.25     6.36     8.61     0.01    11.47     1.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.93    55.53     0.71    66.67     6.50     4.63     0.02    10.00     1.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.71    12.27    -8.29    66.50     5.97    10.77     0.01     8.52     2.23P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          26   35   +0       2.92    65.84     5.93    60.85     6.43    -2.72     0.00     1.74     0.26P    0.52R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.65    30.95     0.61    66.08     6.47    10.91     0.01     9.20     1.89P    0.07R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.85    21.54    -5.32    60.62     6.13    -0.04     0.00     1.28     0.27P    0.39R    0.00  
Woking           25   32   -5       0.12    51.27    -0.52    55.27     6.19   -14.68     0.00     0.18     0.02P    3.69R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.64    41.68    -0.76    57.20     5.99    -7.43     0.00     0.22     0.04P    1.57R    0.00  
Southport        26   27  -16      -2.37    37.89    -5.39    48.20     5.92   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.88R    0.01  
Aldershot        26   26   +4      -6.41    19.47    -6.57    60.98     6.25    15.82     0.00     1.60     0.44P    0.49R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.17    50.10    -4.02    47.75     6.21   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.30R    0.06  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.70    36.34    -0.38    44.04     6.11   -25.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.47R    0.18  
Dartford         27   19  -26      -9.57     8.49   -11.73    39.13     5.72   -35.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.53R    0.91  
Hyde_United      28    7  -49     -14.94     0.57   -17.67    21.20     5.11   -68.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   98.83  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10