Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 14 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 January 2014, Aston_Villa 1 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          21   48  +22       6.96    87.19     2.77    80.45     5.45    36.87    22.70    53.30    77.48    91.29    99.32     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   47  +36       1.16    56.10     6.91    83.87     4.99    60.32    55.58    81.14    93.65    98.20    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   46  +21       5.09    79.32     1.64    79.14     5.46    36.35    16.15    42.83    70.62    87.72    98.88     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        21   42  +25       1.74    60.39     5.89    74.50     5.63    39.66     4.52    16.65    37.38    65.89    94.14     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.86    77.55     4.40    68.66     5.63    21.44     0.47     2.33     7.71    20.41    71.26     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   40   +1       6.68    85.17    -5.24    66.50     5.69     5.60     0.13     0.92     3.51    10.59    51.71     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +11      -3.52    28.18    -7.39    69.53     5.41    26.09     0.45     2.83     9.61    25.62    79.09     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        21   33   +2       5.67    81.30     5.42    55.80     5.60     0.42     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.22     4.15     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      21   30   +4       2.45    65.47     6.85    52.64     5.65     2.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.47     0.02R    0.00  
Hull             21   23   -5       1.61    61.79     7.21    41.25     5.51   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.95R    1.28  
Aston_Villa      21   23   -7      -0.93    45.07     1.00    42.65     5.37   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.28R    0.63  
Stoke            21   22  -13      -0.53    47.66    -2.99    41.19     5.38   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.54R    1.30  
Swansea          21   21   -4      -4.43    24.61     1.95    44.26     5.55    -4.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.00R    0.36  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.56    19.19    -0.63    42.74     5.56    -8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.54R    0.70  
Norwich          21   20  -18      -1.52    41.13    -5.03    37.06     5.33   -28.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.78R    6.92  
Fulham           21   19  -24      -3.29    30.48   -11.84    35.75     5.25   -36.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.96R   11.86  
West_Ham         21   18   -9      -6.74    14.25    -2.16    37.19     5.35   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.93R    5.57  
Cardiff          21   18  -19      -1.31    42.94    -3.63    33.91     5.12   -31.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.34R   18.66  
Sunderland       21   17  -15      -5.98    17.01    -6.22    35.35     5.21   -24.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.35R   11.14  
Crystal_Palace   21   17  -18      -0.44    48.82     1.10    30.78     4.98   -33.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.30R   41.58  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Blackburn 1 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       25   54  +19      10.20    92.22     4.45    90.00     6.56    30.05    57.96    80.87    99.34    85.94P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   50  +19       9.24    89.84     9.31    83.72     6.51    26.42    18.34    46.24    94.96    58.26P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             25   49  +14       7.22    83.93     3.22    83.76     6.51    22.61    17.26    44.59    94.45    59.21P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   44  +15       5.68    77.54     8.86    77.62     6.59    22.56     3.84    15.09    77.21    29.05P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   41  +10       3.72    69.39     5.32    73.02     6.53    14.89     0.92     4.39    51.06    15.01P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   39   +8      -0.74    45.91    -0.14    71.45     6.38    13.51     0.48     2.59    41.32    12.89P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         25   38   +3      -0.47    47.50    -3.36    71.37     6.64    10.00     0.58     2.65    40.17    12.52P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       25   37   +3       0.75    54.18    -0.08    66.12     6.50     3.78     0.05     0.33    14.62     3.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich         25   36   +7       1.55    58.67     6.56    65.06     6.57     7.41     0.04     0.32    12.56     2.75P    0.06R    0.00  
Wigan           24   36   +5      -2.59    36.30    -3.41    70.56     6.78    11.74     0.43     2.31    36.39    12.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    25   35   +1       1.27    57.01     1.86    63.77     6.52     0.92     0.01     0.15     8.32     1.66P    0.10R    0.00  
Huddersfield    25   34   +5       1.28    57.58     7.14    60.93     6.49     2.31     0.01     0.05     4.11     0.78P    0.29R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   25   33   +7      -2.69    36.16     4.80    63.41     6.56     9.39     0.03     0.17     8.63     2.04P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackpool       25   32   -6      -1.77    40.94    -5.43    60.12     6.41    -6.87     0.00     0.04     2.61     0.50P    0.53R    0.01  
Watford         24   30   +5      -7.18    15.95    -1.64    63.75     6.82    10.35     0.03     0.19    10.28     2.85P    0.18R    0.00  
Bournemouth     25   30  -13       3.68    70.67     0.22    52.95     6.48   -22.48     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    6.99R    0.48  
Birmingham      25   29   +0      -6.56    18.41    -2.05    58.87     6.52     1.79     0.00     0.02     1.98     0.50P    0.74R    0.03  
Bolton          25   28   -5      -7.39    15.69    -6.74    57.72     6.64    -3.58     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.31P    1.45R    0.06  
Sheff_Wed       24   25   -1      -6.00    19.72     1.65    52.87     6.64    -4.28     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    6.47R    0.46  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.96    16.05    -5.51    52.39     6.59   -10.30     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    7.47R    0.51  
Millwall        25   22  -24      -3.74    30.23   -10.79    44.52     6.21   -33.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.75R    7.94  
Doncaster       25   21  -24      -1.46    43.04    -6.08    40.58     6.06   -37.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.95R   21.34  
Yeovil          24   17  -19      -4.15    27.22    -0.85    37.28     6.15   -34.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.07R   40.31  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.07    14.38    -7.33    38.97     6.30   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.84R   28.86  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2014, Stevenage 2 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       25   55  +21      12.17    95.45     8.25    90.97     6.51    31.69    36.37    66.97    99.53    75.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   25   54  +31      10.62    92.85    17.12    90.46     6.64    42.70    36.49    66.67    99.47    75.83P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       3.13    65.35     2.47    88.80     6.33    36.00    24.83    54.83    99.21    70.75P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         25   47   +9      10.10    91.37     5.09    78.92     6.59    13.60     1.64     6.96    80.69    21.37P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       25   41   +8       7.72    84.55    10.11    68.18     6.74     5.14     0.05     0.32    23.30     3.73P    0.12R    0.00  
Walsall         26   41   +6       3.45    67.66     3.05    69.84     6.36     8.21     0.04     0.33    30.80     6.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough    25   39   +5      -1.47    42.25    -4.29    74.63     6.73    15.62     0.37     2.23    61.13    18.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         25   37   +8      -4.59    26.94    -3.14    72.13     6.59    17.44     0.14     1.07    47.06    14.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       25   36   -3       5.32    76.07     3.13    62.76     6.67    -6.72     0.00     0.03     6.58     1.00P    1.41R    0.04  
MK_Dons         24   35   +5      -3.62    31.12    -3.67    69.60     6.91    11.56     0.05     0.49    32.35     8.38P    0.11R    0.00  
Coventry        25   33  +10       2.98    64.99     1.09    65.38     6.73    15.42     0.01     0.09    14.64     3.55P    0.44R    0.02  
Bradford        25   32   +6       1.47    58.43    11.54    57.52     6.52     0.92     0.00     0.00     1.53     0.24P    6.35R    0.39  
Colchester      25   31   -1      -0.18    49.70     3.69    56.84     6.41    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.16P    7.97R    0.64  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.17    51.51    -0.14    57.17     6.59    -9.50     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.19P    8.48R    0.66  
Gillingham      26   29  -12       0.06    51.31    -1.24    51.33     6.26   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   30.83R    4.60  
Oldham          25   27   -6      -2.65    36.06     0.67    51.59     6.40   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   27.90R    3.86  
Carlisle        25   27  -17       0.17    52.05    -4.70    49.58     6.30   -27.40     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   42.57R    7.84  
Shrewsbury      26   26   -6      -5.54    22.81    -0.18    50.44     6.20   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   33.23R    5.58  
Sheff_Utd       25   25   -9     -10.66     6.98   -11.12    55.32     6.55    -6.64     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.11P   12.52R    1.33  
Tranmere        25   25  -16      -4.84    25.63    -9.24    51.31     6.53   -20.03     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   31.56R    5.31  
Notts_County    26   24   -7     -11.28     6.47    -6.28    50.54     6.37    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   32.58R    5.67  
Crewe           25   24  -27       0.16    52.30    -9.23    43.35     6.06   -42.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.56R   38.51  
Bristol_City    24   23   -3     -11.64     5.75    -5.33    54.15     6.95    -1.68     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.16P   17.46R    2.46  
Stevenage       25   22  -19      -4.86    24.90    -7.65    45.42     6.34   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.88R   23.09  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           25   47  +14       3.98    70.02     1.18    83.61     6.65    25.38    43.74    81.70    98.54    87.21P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   45   +6       9.22    89.20     3.63    73.99     6.61     6.44     4.81    25.98    76.91    36.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         24   44  +18       2.38    62.64     5.55    81.44     6.64    28.44    30.75    73.37    97.15    81.25P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             25   43   +7       5.49    76.58     2.22    74.99     6.73    11.67     6.17    32.77    81.68    44.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             25   42   +9       2.92    65.43     2.00    75.09     6.60    15.27     6.61    33.88    83.14    48.28P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   41   +9       6.37    80.77     6.33    72.37     6.83    10.79     3.59    20.94    70.26    31.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +13       1.87    60.38     6.77    72.35     6.72    17.77     3.64    22.07    72.37    35.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.81    88.39    12.47    65.37     6.91     3.01     0.51     4.31    30.73     8.90P    0.35R    0.07  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.95    60.66    -1.40    60.96     6.09    -6.78     0.01     0.51     9.63     2.30P    1.27R    0.29  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.06    51.00     2.22    60.01     6.34    -1.84     0.02     0.45     8.96     2.28P    1.99R    0.57  
Plymouth             25   34   -3       2.44    63.83    -0.06    60.28     6.34    -5.81     0.01     0.44     8.84     2.12P    1.96R    0.53  
Cheltenham           25   33   -3      -1.59    41.65    -3.63    61.79     6.55    -2.83     0.05     0.99    14.03     4.06P    1.44R    0.41  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.54    37.01    -3.41    61.15     6.63    -2.36     0.04     0.95    12.73     3.88P    1.69R    0.51  
York                 26   31   +0      -1.53    42.43     3.98    56.02     6.24    -3.14     0.00     0.10     2.80     0.68P    6.86R    2.33  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   31   -2       1.13    57.22     4.24    55.66     6.39    -7.89     0.00     0.08     2.65     0.52P    8.94R    3.41  
Hartlepool           25   31   -4      -4.08    29.59    -5.51    60.56     6.65    -2.52     0.02     0.75    10.79     3.39P    2.28R    0.71  
Mansfield            26   29   -9       0.30    52.66     1.09    52.08     6.27   -15.04     0.00     0.02     0.61     0.12P   22.46R   10.60  
Wycombe              24   28   -3      -4.03    29.23    -1.88    56.71     6.76    -4.99     0.01     0.19     4.58     1.22P    7.53R    2.92  
Bury                 25   27   -4      -7.99    14.38    -5.15    56.90     6.80    -2.34     0.00     0.19     4.67     1.47P    7.22R    2.81  
Portsmouth           25   27   -9      -9.67    10.31   -12.64    58.30     6.78    -5.39     0.00     0.26     6.32     2.07P    5.16R    1.96  
Bristol_Rovers       24   26   -4      -4.33    27.67    -0.65    54.30     6.66    -6.42     0.00     0.06     1.97     0.49P   13.23R    5.71  
Accrington_Stanley   25   26   -8      -3.58    31.81    -1.16    50.00     6.37   -14.99     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P   33.31R   17.70  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.98    21.14    -7.82    49.98     6.22   -17.87     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P   33.86R   17.73  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -8.01    12.89    -8.35    47.34     6.38   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   50.44R   31.71  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2014, Gateshead 0 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.62    81.85    12.18    93.80     5.82    51.29    66.09    99.89    78.15P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.32    95.08    15.35    89.75     6.56    38.65    29.68    98.60    49.52P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.14    93.66     3.69    71.97     5.65    -3.12     0.05    26.07     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        28   45   +9       4.13    70.50     5.29    70.36     5.81     9.96     0.03    21.06     3.61P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.38    57.06    -5.78    77.40     6.19    14.87     0.80    64.46    16.22P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.19    61.96     0.65    80.54     6.51    24.28     3.13    80.85    25.50P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          29   43   +9       2.33    61.63     8.30    66.40     5.86     8.78     0.00     7.95     1.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.50    32.25    -4.14    73.69     6.07    17.61     0.14    42.44    12.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         27   41   +1       6.36    80.23     4.57    64.86     5.82    -2.41     0.00     4.26     0.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        25   40   +2       8.15    86.40     6.18    66.78     6.64    -1.51     0.02    10.15     1.42P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.20    67.45     7.25    67.26     6.32     8.59     0.02    11.54     1.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.98    55.96     0.81    66.62     6.52     4.52     0.02     9.95     1.78P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.84    12.24    -8.39    66.57     5.98    10.92     0.00     8.59     2.16P    0.03R    0.00  
Welling          26   35   +0       2.87    65.46     5.85    60.83     6.47    -2.73     0.00     1.76     0.26P    0.57R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.66    30.76     0.54    66.18     6.43    11.03     0.01     9.23     1.91P    0.07R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.93    21.21    -5.38    60.63     6.13     0.01     0.00     1.29     0.25P    0.34R    0.00  
Woking           25   32   -5       0.01    50.70    -0.69    55.32     6.24   -14.60     0.00     0.18     0.02P    3.77R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.60    41.95    -0.69    57.26     5.96    -7.34     0.00     0.23     0.04P    1.37R    0.00  
Southport        26   27  -16      -2.45    37.37    -5.53    48.26     5.89   -26.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.37R    0.01  
Aldershot        26   26   +4      -6.23    20.19    -6.33    60.88     6.21    15.70     0.00     1.49     0.48P    0.50R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.18    50.29    -4.00    47.78     6.24   -28.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.08R    0.06  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.59    36.72    -0.19    43.92     6.12   -25.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.29R    0.17  
Dartford         27   19  -26      -9.58     8.48   -11.71    39.12     5.75   -35.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.52R    1.05  
Hyde_United      28    7  -49     -14.95     0.60   -17.85    21.21     5.11   -68.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   98.71  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10