Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 13 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2014, Newcastle 0 2 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         21   47  +36       1.22    56.35     7.05    83.79     5.02    60.21    57.40    82.24    93.76    98.14    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   46  +21       5.07    79.13     1.57    79.17     5.42    36.42    17.36    45.47    71.62    88.21    98.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          20   45  +21       5.88    83.37     2.63    79.33     5.67    36.59    19.04    47.00    72.05    87.92    98.81     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        21   42  +25       1.74    60.36     5.94    74.50     5.64    39.63     5.00    18.44    39.51    66.49    94.29     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.84    77.48     4.34    68.76     5.62    21.53     0.47     2.58     8.49    21.63    71.65     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   40   +1       6.73    85.47    -5.19    66.53     5.68     5.61     0.17     1.03     3.85    11.07    51.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +11      -3.52    28.36    -7.38    69.49     5.44    26.02     0.54     3.23    10.68    26.27    78.88     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        21   33   +2       5.66    80.92     5.35    55.81     5.65     0.44     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.23     4.24     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      21   30   +4       2.49    65.69     6.91    52.60     5.65     2.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.42     0.03R    0.00  
Hull             21   23   -5       1.62    61.62     7.21    41.27     5.50   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     8.82R    1.25  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.12    50.45     1.10    43.46     5.56   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.39R    0.50  
Stoke            21   22  -13      -0.60    47.33    -3.04    41.18     5.40   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.79R    1.30  
Swansea          21   21   -4      -4.44    24.65     1.98    44.22     5.57    -4.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.21R    0.38  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.57    18.98    -0.63    42.71     5.58    -8.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.74R    0.71  
Norwich          21   20  -18      -1.52    41.16    -5.07    37.03     5.32   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.13R    7.14  
Fulham           21   19  -24      -3.22    30.77   -11.81    35.81     5.23   -36.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.63R   11.51  
West_Ham         21   18   -9      -6.78    13.97    -2.24    37.18     5.35   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.20R    5.77  
Cardiff          21   18  -19      -1.26    43.34    -3.47    33.91     5.12   -31.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.99R   19.01  
Sunderland       21   17  -15      -5.97    17.18    -6.23    35.35     5.18   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.45R   11.20  
Crystal_Palace   21   17  -18      -0.48    48.57     0.98    30.86     4.97   -32.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.59R   41.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Blackburn 1 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       25   54  +19      10.12    92.02     4.31    90.17     6.47    30.28    59.29    82.08    99.38    86.81P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   50  +19       9.33    90.11     9.43    83.60     6.53    26.25    17.74    45.78    94.53    57.89P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             25   49  +14       7.46    84.79     3.51    83.57     6.43    22.38    16.38    43.27    94.47    58.22P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   44  +15       5.52    77.16     8.63    77.77     6.55    22.80     4.16    15.55    78.23    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   41  +10       3.79    69.71     5.46    72.93     6.47    14.79     0.85     4.45    50.54    14.91P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   39   +8      -0.64    46.46     0.00    71.39     6.41    13.42     0.48     2.58    40.95    12.91P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         25   38   +3      -0.48    47.56    -3.40    71.38     6.60    10.02     0.46     2.57    40.10    12.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       25   37   +3       0.70    53.95    -0.14    66.15     6.55     3.83     0.08     0.49    14.87     3.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich         25   36   +7       1.58    59.04     6.61    65.01     6.52     7.32     0.04     0.28    12.22     2.62P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           24   36   +5      -2.63    35.90    -3.47    70.63     6.79    11.84     0.45     2.31    37.03    12.12P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    25   35   +1       1.37    57.83     2.01    63.67     6.53     0.75     0.02     0.17     8.07     1.61P    0.11R    0.00  
Huddersfield    25   34   +5       1.06    56.33     6.85    61.06     6.51     2.48     0.01     0.05     4.26     0.86P    0.27R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   25   33   +7      -2.58    36.62     4.90    63.29     6.54     9.22     0.01     0.15     8.46     1.89P    0.13R    0.00  
Blackpool       25   32   -6      -1.81    40.67    -5.49    60.05     6.34    -6.90     0.00     0.03     2.29     0.48P    0.46R    0.01  
Watford         24   30   +5      -7.33    15.56    -1.85    63.89     6.82    10.56     0.03     0.23    10.48     2.99P    0.16R    0.00  
Bournemouth     25   30  -13       3.69    70.50     0.22    52.93     6.48   -22.50     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    6.93R    0.49  
Birmingham      25   29   +0      -6.70    17.82    -2.24    58.98     6.58     1.90     0.00     0.02     2.15     0.51P    0.80R    0.02  
Bolton          25   28   -5      -7.43    15.48    -6.75    57.74     6.57    -3.53     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.33P    1.46R    0.08  
Sheff_Wed       24   25   -1      -5.86    20.29     1.85    52.76     6.61    -4.42     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    6.48R    0.45  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.78    16.73    -5.31    52.22     6.57   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    7.69R    0.57  
Millwall        25   22  -24      -3.78    30.12   -10.83    44.63     6.20   -33.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.19R    7.67  
Doncaster       25   21  -24      -1.50    42.74    -6.12    40.58     6.07   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.15R   21.32  
Yeovil          24   17  -19      -4.22    27.27    -0.90    37.31     6.15   -34.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.15R   40.41  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.06    14.38    -7.30    38.99     6.29   -33.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.97R   28.98  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2014, Coventry 2 2 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       25   55  +21      12.06    95.20     8.08    91.05     6.51    31.83    35.85    66.46    99.57    75.43P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   25   54  +31      10.55    92.48    17.02    90.54     6.58    42.82    36.47    65.86    99.48    75.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.96    64.71     2.17    89.00     6.30    36.25    25.03    55.16    99.14    71.12P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         25   47   +9      10.03    91.32     4.93    78.97     6.57    13.71     1.57     6.71    80.51    21.10P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       25   41   +8       7.72    84.47    10.11    68.26     6.71     5.20     0.05     0.33    22.35     3.47P    0.11R    0.00  
Peterborough    25   39   +5      -1.54    41.83    -4.42    74.70     6.76    15.81     0.44     2.27    60.38    17.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall         25   38   +5       2.63    64.21     3.23    68.16     6.58     7.09     0.04     0.22    22.19     4.49P    0.11R    0.00  
Swindon         24   37  +10      -3.43    31.43    -1.51    74.55     6.82    20.97     0.47     2.42    60.70    18.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       25   36   -3       5.53    76.93     3.49    62.61     6.70    -7.00     0.00     0.02     5.78     0.76P    1.50R    0.04  
MK_Dons         24   35   +5      -3.59    31.06    -3.61    69.62     6.90    11.61     0.07     0.43    30.80     7.88P    0.08R    0.00  
Coventry        25   33  +10       3.05    65.06     1.24    65.33     6.77    15.33     0.01     0.11    13.95     3.32P    0.45R    0.01  
Bradford        25   32   +6       1.39    58.17    11.43    57.62     6.50     1.12     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.26P    5.86R    0.33  
Colchester      25   31   -1      -0.34    48.85     3.43    56.98     6.50    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.14P    7.61R    0.52  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.07    51.00    -0.30    57.22     6.66    -9.37     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.18P    8.07R    0.48  
Gillingham      26   29  -12       0.14    51.99    -1.01    51.25     6.26   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   30.22R    3.92  
Oldham          24   27   -5      -1.89    40.08     0.88    52.65     6.63   -11.52     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   22.74R    2.41  
Carlisle        25   27  -17       0.13    51.53    -4.81    49.67     6.32   -27.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   40.99R    6.46  
Shrewsbury      26   26   -6      -5.50    23.21    -0.12    50.48     6.21   -10.17     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   32.10R    4.50  
Sheff_Utd       25   25   -9     -10.54     7.35   -10.99    55.17     6.57    -6.84     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.11P   12.51R    1.16  
Tranmere        25   25  -16      -4.67    26.57    -8.92    51.12     6.53   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   31.73R    4.56  
Notts_County    26   24   -7     -11.34     6.61    -6.41    50.61     6.37    -8.36     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   31.16R    4.43  
Crewe           25   24  -27       0.20    52.62    -9.14    43.32     6.06   -42.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.31R   33.33  
Bristol_City    24   23   -3     -11.84     5.71    -5.62    54.26     7.01    -1.53     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.15P   16.66R    2.04  
Stevenage       24   19  -21      -6.27    18.20    -9.15    42.75     6.53   -30.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.80R   35.82  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           25   47  +14       3.97    69.92     1.13    83.57     6.69    25.34    43.62    81.48    98.42    86.94P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   45   +6       9.36    89.49     3.83    73.84     6.59     6.22     4.50    25.56    76.26    36.20P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   44  +18       2.41    62.99     5.58    81.34     6.72    28.32    30.81    72.83    96.85    80.98P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             25   43   +7       5.67    77.56     2.50    74.91     6.70    11.58     6.20    32.62    81.58    44.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             25   42   +9       2.81    64.88     1.81    75.27     6.54    15.52     7.00    35.00    84.27    49.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   41   +9       6.37    80.88     6.29    72.39     6.85    10.82     3.59    21.30    70.17    32.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +13       1.96    60.81     6.92    72.31     6.74    17.69     3.61    22.17    71.89    35.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.85    88.63    12.51    65.36     6.90     3.01     0.43     4.14    30.59     8.72P    0.34R    0.07  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.90    60.40    -1.44    61.01     6.14    -6.73     0.02     0.51     9.96     2.46P    1.32R    0.31  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0       0.17    51.60     2.38    59.98     6.32    -1.90     0.01     0.40     8.56     2.15P    2.00R    0.59  
Plymouth             25   34   -3       2.41    63.78    -0.09    60.32     6.34    -5.75     0.03     0.49     8.79     2.18P    1.97R    0.61  
Cheltenham           25   33   -3      -1.72    41.15    -3.77    61.79     6.61    -2.81     0.07     1.08    14.35     4.25P    1.38R    0.40  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.66    36.33    -3.64    61.25     6.62    -2.22     0.05     0.85    13.19     3.89P    1.79R    0.51  
York                 26   31   +0      -1.53    42.68     4.04    55.91     6.23    -3.29     0.00     0.08     2.66     0.64P    7.04R    2.48  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   31   -2       0.98    56.31     4.01    55.81     6.42    -7.66     0.00     0.10     2.78     0.58P    8.46R    3.07  
Hartlepool           25   31   -4      -4.17    29.11    -5.59    60.58     6.64    -2.53     0.03     0.69    10.88     3.45P    2.21R    0.70  
Mansfield            26   29   -9       0.47    53.71     1.29    52.02     6.24   -15.14     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.10P   22.93R   10.52  
Wycombe              24   28   -3      -4.03    29.20    -1.90    56.77     6.71    -4.95     0.01     0.21     4.45     1.10P    7.16R    2.78  
Bury                 25   27   -4      -8.13    14.34    -5.29    57.02     6.79    -2.17     0.01     0.18     5.05     1.57P    6.84R    2.69  
Portsmouth           25   27   -9      -9.65    10.33   -12.60    58.21     6.76    -5.50     0.01     0.24     6.00     1.97P    5.39R    2.05  
Bristol_Rovers       24   26   -4      -4.43    27.26    -0.83    54.39     6.67    -6.26     0.00     0.06     2.00     0.46P   13.05R    5.69  
Accrington_Stanley   25   26   -8      -3.64    31.50    -1.30    50.04     6.37   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P   33.16R   17.11  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.84    21.86    -7.67    49.96     6.24   -17.87     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.06P   33.92R   17.68  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.94    13.15    -8.19    47.21     6.40   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   51.02R   32.73  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Gateshead 2 1 Nuneaton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.53    81.21    11.95    93.90     5.82    51.42    66.72    99.89    78.64P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.45    95.37    15.55    89.68     6.56    38.60    28.98    98.51    49.17P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.25    93.97     3.89    71.77     5.61    -3.44     0.04    24.41     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.43    57.28    -5.78    77.35     6.24    14.79     0.86    63.32    15.97P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.12    61.59     0.52    80.66     6.52    24.55     3.17    80.42    25.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        27   44   +9       4.42    72.12     5.14    70.79     6.06    10.01     0.05    23.27     3.97P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          29   43   +9       2.39    61.77     8.37    66.34     5.82     8.68     0.00     7.48     1.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.38    32.80    -3.94    73.61     6.07    17.48     0.13    41.18    11.14P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         27   41   +1       6.28    80.17     4.45    64.91     5.86    -2.31     0.00     4.37     0.54P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        25   40   +2       8.14    86.55     6.17    66.76     6.60    -1.55     0.02     9.60     1.31P    0.05R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.09    67.06     7.08    67.28     6.37     8.70     0.01    11.26     1.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.99    55.57     0.83    66.55     6.49     4.42     0.01     9.47     1.69P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.79    12.16    -8.39    66.59     5.93    10.90     0.00     8.37     2.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          25   35   +2       3.86    70.36     7.36    64.19     6.64     2.55     0.00     5.51     0.83P    0.14R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.72    30.33     0.44    66.23     6.43    11.09     0.01     9.16     2.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.88    21.46    -5.31    60.61     6.10    -0.04     0.00     1.21     0.23P    0.37R    0.00  
Woking           25   32   -5       0.11    51.28    -0.51    55.17     6.19   -14.88     0.00     0.14     0.01P    3.98R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.56    42.16    -0.65    57.25     6.00    -7.42     0.00     0.25     0.03P    1.52R    0.00  
Southport        26   27  -16      -2.46    37.19    -5.45    48.21     5.94   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.99R    0.00  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.25    19.68    -7.01    61.45     6.49    16.21     0.00     2.19     0.69P    0.50R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.10    50.71    -3.81    47.78     6.24   -28.51     0.00     0.01     0.00    30.25R    0.01  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.76    35.61    -0.43    43.98     6.15   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.81R    0.06  
Dartford         27   19  -26      -9.45     8.77   -11.45    39.11     5.74   -35.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.26R    0.36  
Hyde_United      27    4  -51     -16.43     0.14   -19.01    18.14     5.16   -73.54     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.57  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10