Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 12 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2014, Newcastle 0 2 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         21   47  +36       1.24    56.44     7.08    83.78     4.99    60.21    57.56    82.32    93.72    98.11    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   46  +21       5.04    78.89     1.54    79.16     5.46    36.39    17.38    45.95    71.79    87.99    98.91     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          20   45  +21       5.98    83.92     2.77    79.28     5.66    36.57    18.96    46.62    71.98    87.83    98.83     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        21   42  +25       1.78    60.50     5.93    74.50     5.63    39.61     4.99    18.27    39.45    66.25    94.36     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.80    77.31     4.31    68.73     5.62    21.49     0.42     2.62     8.43    21.65    71.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   40   +1       6.73    85.25    -5.21    66.51     5.71     5.58     0.16     1.06     4.01    11.53    51.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +11      -3.47    28.43    -7.37    69.47     5.44    25.98     0.51     3.14    10.59    26.36    78.65     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        21   33   +2       5.70    81.56     5.47    55.78     5.60     0.41     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.24     4.03     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      21   30   +4       2.54    65.76     7.01    52.59     5.66     2.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.46     0.04R    0.00  
Hull             21   23   -5       1.71    62.16     7.36    41.18     5.53   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.24R    1.21  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.10    50.20     1.09    43.51     5.53   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.39R    0.47  
Stoke            21   22  -13      -0.68    46.70    -3.16    41.25     5.36   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.46R    1.33  
Swansea          21   21   -4      -4.49    24.15     1.89    44.27     5.56    -4.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.06R    0.33  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.58    18.85    -0.63    42.68     5.58    -8.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.83R    0.75  
Norwich          21   20  -18      -1.54    41.06    -5.08    37.08     5.35   -28.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.14R    7.05  
Fulham           21   19  -24      -3.28    30.69   -11.88    35.85     5.26   -36.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.65R   11.51  
West_Ham         21   18   -9      -6.89    13.60    -2.35    37.23     5.37   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.06R    5.67  
Cardiff          21   18  -19      -1.31    43.10    -3.59    33.90     5.13   -31.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.05R   18.83  
Sunderland       21   17  -15      -5.99    17.28    -6.25    35.39     5.20   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.15R   11.13  
Crystal_Palace   21   17  -18      -0.42    48.70     1.08    30.78     4.96   -33.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.92R   41.72  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Blackburn 1 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       25   54  +19      10.15    92.15     4.37    90.06     6.52    30.15    58.59    81.54    99.33    86.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   50  +19       9.38    90.09     9.51    83.58     6.49    26.21    17.77    45.66    94.71    58.00P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             25   49  +14       7.39    84.62     3.41    83.63     6.44    22.45    17.04    44.19    94.40    58.84P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   44  +15       5.67    77.64     8.86    77.65     6.61    22.60     4.04    15.33    77.61    29.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   41  +10       3.69    68.94     5.34    72.94     6.50    14.82     0.95     4.38    50.55    15.06P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   39   +8      -0.54    46.87     0.14    71.37     6.42    13.39     0.46     2.52    41.12    13.00P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         25   38   +3      -0.56    46.92    -3.50    71.38     6.70    10.03     0.58     2.73    40.46    12.64P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       25   37   +3       0.66    53.84    -0.16    66.15     6.52     3.81     0.07     0.40    14.78     3.32P    0.04R    0.00  
Ipswich         25   36   +7       1.56    58.79     6.54    65.00     6.51     7.33     0.03     0.28    12.35     2.69P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           24   36   +5      -2.59    35.97    -3.45    70.48     6.77    11.69     0.39     2.28    36.27    11.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    25   35   +1       1.29    57.24     1.89    63.75     6.55     0.88     0.03     0.20     8.55     1.89P    0.09R    0.00  
Huddersfield    25   34   +5       1.10    56.70     6.89    61.06     6.48     2.51     0.01     0.05     4.08     0.83P    0.26R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   25   33   +7      -2.64    36.70     4.89    63.38     6.57     9.30     0.02     0.17     8.69     1.95P    0.13R    0.00  
Blackpool       25   32   -6      -1.75    41.23    -5.43    60.09     6.39    -6.88     0.00     0.01     2.61     0.57P    0.49R    0.01  
Watford         24   30   +5      -7.26    15.59    -1.76    63.81     6.82    10.46     0.02     0.22    10.39     2.89P    0.16R    0.01  
Bournemouth     25   30  -13       3.71    70.68     0.26    52.89     6.48   -22.57     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    7.09R    0.43  
Birmingham      25   29   +0      -6.66    18.07    -2.19    58.99     6.60     1.93     0.00     0.02     2.20     0.57P    0.76R    0.02  
Bolton          25   28   -5      -7.53    15.10    -6.89    57.81     6.61    -3.42     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.29P    1.40R    0.06  
Sheff_Wed       24   25   -1      -6.12    19.41     1.43    52.99     6.68    -4.09     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    6.18R    0.44  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.87    16.64    -5.40    52.38     6.57   -10.32     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    7.28R    0.51  
Millwall        25   22  -24      -3.71    30.45   -10.78    44.50     6.23   -33.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    44.14R    7.99  
Doncaster       25   21  -24      -1.55    42.66    -6.16    40.67     6.09   -37.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.18R   20.70  
Yeovil          24   17  -19      -4.02    28.28    -0.53    37.14     6.15   -35.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.68R   41.17  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.02    14.52    -7.28    38.95     6.28   -33.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.09R   28.64  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2014, Coventry 2 2 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       25   55  +21      12.17    95.40     8.25    91.04     6.50    31.83    36.07    66.41    99.53    75.58P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   25   54  +31      10.55    92.58    17.00    90.46     6.61    42.73    36.00    65.89    99.45    75.34P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       2.91    64.56     2.05    89.02     6.27    36.33    25.31    55.23    99.20    70.97P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         25   47   +9      10.07    91.37     5.03    78.98     6.62    13.70     1.61     6.78    80.06    20.61P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       25   41   +8       7.77    84.73    10.24    68.11     6.72     5.04     0.03     0.24    21.85     3.39P    0.09R    0.00  
Peterborough    25   39   +5      -1.38    42.98    -4.15    74.55     6.73    15.54     0.38     2.15    59.35    17.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         25   38   +5       2.37    62.87     2.87    68.37     6.57     7.36     0.03     0.20    22.94     4.51P    0.07R    0.00  
Swindon         24   37  +10      -3.44    31.46    -1.59    74.59     6.81    21.07     0.47     2.47    61.23    19.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       25   36   -3       5.29    75.95     3.01    62.88     6.74    -6.54     0.00     0.03     6.28     0.92P    1.28R    0.03  
MK_Dons         24   35   +5      -3.53    31.05    -3.50    69.59     6.92    11.54     0.09     0.51    30.63     7.85P    0.07R    0.00  
Coventry        25   33  +10       2.98    65.04     1.14    65.41     6.77    15.43     0.01     0.09    14.30     3.35P    0.41R    0.02  
Bradford        25   32   +6       1.22    57.17    11.21    57.72     6.55     1.25     0.00     0.00     1.58     0.26P    5.80R    0.32  
Colchester      25   31   -1      -0.20    49.44     3.68    56.89     6.48    -5.55     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.15P    7.67R    0.51  
Crawley_Town    24   30   -5       0.22    51.90    -0.11    57.16     6.66    -9.47     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.19P    8.12R    0.52  
Gillingham      26   29  -12       0.23    52.29    -0.94    51.25     6.28   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P   30.27R    3.77  
Oldham          24   27   -5      -1.78    40.90     1.01    52.60     6.59   -11.60     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   22.92R    2.44  
Carlisle        25   27  -17       0.15    51.82    -4.66    49.51     6.37   -27.49     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   42.06R    6.62  
Shrewsbury      26   26   -6      -5.63    22.52    -0.28    50.49     6.19   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   31.93R    4.22  
Sheff_Utd       25   25   -9     -10.59     7.21   -11.04    55.27     6.55    -6.71     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.11P   12.02R    1.01  
Tranmere        25   25  -16      -4.80    25.73    -9.15    51.21     6.49   -20.15     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   30.94R    4.33  
Notts_County    26   24   -7     -11.23     6.66    -6.24    50.50     6.40    -8.54     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   31.77R    4.65  
Crewe           25   24  -27       0.18    52.43    -9.15    43.28     6.07   -42.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.01R   33.64  
Bristol_City    24   23   -3     -11.83     5.68    -5.63    54.27     7.02    -1.47     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.16P   16.28R    1.96  
Stevenage       24   19  -21      -6.19    18.38    -9.07    42.66     6.46   -31.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.27R   35.95  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           25   47  +14       3.93    69.64     1.08    83.66     6.71    25.45    44.17    81.68    98.49    87.17P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   45   +6       9.21    89.39     3.66    73.95     6.58     6.35     4.69    25.96    77.08    36.82P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   44  +18       2.55    63.79     5.74    81.23     6.72    28.20    29.95    72.13    96.82    80.49P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             25   43   +7       5.67    77.39     2.47    74.89     6.75    11.53     6.26    32.56    81.11    44.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             25   42   +9       2.76    64.53     1.77    75.28     6.57    15.52     7.17    35.24    84.23    49.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   41   +9       6.46    81.32     6.47    72.24     6.80    10.58     3.43    20.83    69.52    31.51P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +13       1.87    60.12     6.80    72.33     6.76    17.74     3.63    22.20    72.03    35.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.78    88.53    12.42    65.41     6.87     3.08     0.43     4.31    30.70     8.83P    0.29R    0.08  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.69    59.27    -1.77    61.12     6.11    -6.55     0.02     0.54    10.16     2.44P    1.20R    0.33  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0      -0.04    50.45     2.07    60.11     6.28    -1.71     0.02     0.47     8.99     2.31P    1.93R    0.55  
Plymouth             25   34   -3       2.42    63.87    -0.07    60.33     6.35    -5.77     0.02     0.51     9.08     2.29P    1.93R    0.56  
Cheltenham           25   33   -3      -1.57    42.17    -3.59    61.72     6.60    -2.92     0.06     1.09    13.89     4.00P    1.45R    0.41  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.53    36.91    -3.39    61.12     6.58    -2.44     0.05     0.84    12.62     3.80P    1.73R    0.55  
York                 26   31   +0      -1.41    43.12     4.23    55.91     6.23    -3.29     0.00     0.09     2.69     0.62P    7.14R    2.46  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   31   -2       1.21    57.58     4.32    55.65     6.40    -7.86     0.00     0.09     2.69     0.58P    9.00R    3.53  
Hartlepool           25   31   -4      -4.25    28.93    -5.73    60.69     6.58    -2.41     0.04     0.67    11.28     3.51P    2.03R    0.63  
Mansfield            26   29   -9       0.39    53.22     1.19    52.07     6.30   -15.06     0.00     0.02     0.56     0.11P   22.71R   10.64  
Wycombe              24   28   -3      -4.09    28.87    -1.97    56.80     6.74    -4.88     0.01     0.20     4.47     1.17P    7.28R    2.79  
Bury                 25   27   -4      -8.02    14.55    -5.19    57.00     6.78    -2.23     0.00     0.21     4.70     1.46P    6.84R    2.63  
Portsmouth           25   27   -9      -9.61    10.49   -12.54    58.25     6.80    -5.46     0.02     0.29     6.39     2.15P    5.31R    2.05  
Bristol_Rovers       24   26   -4      -4.31    27.61    -0.64    54.23     6.65    -6.48     0.00     0.06     1.89     0.44P   13.58R    5.75  
Accrington_Stanley   25   26   -8      -3.62    31.63    -1.26    50.03     6.39   -14.93     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P   33.36R   17.63  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.86    21.60    -7.71    49.98     6.23   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P   34.04R   17.68  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -8.05    12.95    -8.35    47.33     6.42   -18.64     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   50.15R   31.73  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Gateshead 2 1 Nuneaton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.60    81.74    12.06    93.86     5.76    51.44    66.98    99.88    78.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.44    95.47    15.57    89.67     6.52    38.60    28.68    98.53    49.24P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.28    94.13     3.98    71.79     5.60    -3.42     0.04    24.30     2.67P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    26   45   +7       1.44    57.48    -5.78    77.30     6.22    14.70     0.79    63.11    15.71P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.13    61.57     0.58    80.61     6.55    24.44     3.22    80.20    25.04P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        27   44   +9       4.47    72.42     5.24    70.76     6.05     9.94     0.05    22.98     3.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Halifax          29   43   +9       2.52    62.58     8.59    66.25     5.78     8.52     0.00     7.06     1.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.59    31.81    -4.28    73.83     6.03    17.81     0.15    42.52    12.21P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         27   41   +1       6.25    80.12     4.38    64.94     5.84    -2.25     0.00     4.04     0.52P    0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury        25   40   +2       8.18    86.86     6.25    66.78     6.54    -1.54     0.02     9.53     1.26P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   38   +8       3.17    67.25     7.10    67.29     6.36     8.67     0.01    11.25     1.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.83    54.78     0.54    66.74     6.50     4.71     0.01     9.95     1.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   36   +4      -8.73    12.37    -8.30    66.56     5.98    10.85     0.01     8.25     2.24P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          25   35   +2       3.74    69.75     7.16    64.26     6.64     2.67     0.01     5.45     0.88P    0.16R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.76    30.04     0.36    66.22     6.46    11.06     0.02     9.24     1.97P    0.05R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.90    21.25    -5.34    60.58     6.16    -0.07     0.00     1.15     0.21P    0.41R    0.00  
Woking           25   32   -5       0.16    51.53    -0.41    55.11     6.18   -14.99     0.00     0.16     0.01P    3.89R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.48    42.56    -0.48    57.14     5.98    -7.55     0.00     0.20     0.04P    1.56R    0.00  
Southport        26   27  -16      -2.50    36.92    -5.61    48.28     5.88   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.96R    0.01  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.10    20.29    -6.75    61.36     6.53    16.05     0.00     2.19     0.69P    0.51R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.16    50.11    -3.93    47.76     6.26   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.04R    0.02  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.67    36.13    -0.29    43.86     6.14   -26.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.66R    0.08  
Dartford         27   19  -26      -9.42     8.76   -11.36    39.11     5.72   -35.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.62R    0.35  
Hyde_United      27    4  -51     -16.50     0.12   -19.29    18.27     5.17   -73.29     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.54  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10