Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 11 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Cardiff 0 2 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          21   46  +21       5.06    79.02     1.56    79.15     5.40    36.37    20.47    48.75    74.32    89.09    98.89     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          20   45  +21       5.99    83.76     2.80    79.33     5.68    36.62    22.30    50.13    74.71    88.89    98.79     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.47    51.75     6.42    82.63     5.27    58.94    51.22    77.61    91.39    96.94    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Everton          21   41  +15       4.85    77.36     4.40    68.73     5.61    21.51     0.60     3.09     9.72    23.63    72.01     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   40   +1       6.74    85.32    -5.16    66.47     5.66     5.60     0.21     1.29     4.32    12.41    52.46     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       0.94    55.52     5.45    73.25     5.84    38.00     4.47    15.35    33.67    59.78    91.37     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +11      -3.55    28.18    -7.46    69.46     5.42    26.00     0.73     3.76    11.77    28.68    78.68     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.15    83.87     5.95    56.88     5.84     1.84     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.54     6.44     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      21   30   +4       2.39    65.26     6.73    52.60     5.66     2.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.51     0.05R    0.00  
Hull             21   23   -5       1.65    61.95     7.28    41.14     5.52   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.58R    1.37  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.14    50.32     1.00    43.57     5.53   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.23R    0.42  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.11    51.64    -2.47    42.24     5.58   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.22R    0.97  
Swansea          21   21   -4      -4.45    24.50     1.93    44.29     5.56    -4.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.14R    0.35  
West_Brom        21   21   -5      -5.59    18.85    -0.70    42.71     5.54    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.77R    0.77  
Norwich          21   20  -18      -1.47    41.44    -4.99    37.00     5.27   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.35R    6.84  
Fulham           21   19  -24      -3.26    30.94   -11.80    35.74     5.23   -36.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.43R   11.77  
West_Ham         21   18   -9      -6.72    14.26    -2.16    37.10     5.33   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.61R    5.85  
Cardiff          21   18  -19      -1.25    43.22    -3.54    33.79     5.08   -31.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.00R   19.66  
Sunderland       21   17  -15      -5.92    17.44    -6.19    35.39     5.21   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.24R   11.04  
Crystal_Palace   21   17  -18      -0.51    48.34     0.94    30.88     4.99   -32.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.38R   40.97  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Blackburn 1 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       25   54  +19      10.19    92.21     4.42    90.02     6.47    30.10    58.08    81.49    99.36    86.41P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   50  +19       9.29    90.15     9.35    83.69     6.50    26.38    18.23    45.73    94.84    58.12P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             25   49  +14       7.22    84.03     3.19    83.74     6.49    22.61    17.14    44.52    94.64    59.62P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   44  +15       5.63    77.48     8.80    77.69     6.56    22.69     4.01    15.07    77.99    29.19P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   41  +10       3.74    69.73     5.42    73.02     6.50    14.93     0.92     4.40    51.28    14.74P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   39   +8      -0.61    46.69     0.03    71.37     6.42    13.42     0.49     2.56    40.92    12.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading         25   38   +3      -0.54    47.07    -3.43    71.38     6.64    10.01     0.53     2.73    40.43    12.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       25   37   +3       0.73    54.28    -0.11    66.10     6.52     3.74     0.05     0.39    14.68     3.47P    0.03R    0.00  
Ipswich         25   36   +7       1.67    59.69     6.74    64.95     6.54     7.26     0.04     0.28    12.12     2.56P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           24   36   +5      -2.48    36.82    -3.26    70.46     6.80    11.61     0.40     2.18    35.83    11.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    25   35   +1       1.31    57.58     1.89    63.72     6.51     0.83     0.02     0.17     8.30     1.66P    0.08R    0.00  
Huddersfield    25   34   +5       1.01    56.05     6.79    61.10     6.47     2.59     0.00     0.05     4.21     0.81P    0.25R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   25   33   +7      -2.55    36.90     4.97    63.27     6.58     9.20     0.03     0.14     8.49     1.97P    0.15R    0.00  
Blackpool       25   32   -6      -1.80    40.87    -5.44    60.04     6.35    -6.92     0.00     0.02     2.39     0.48P    0.45R    0.01  
Watford         24   30   +5      -7.26    15.82    -1.79    63.85     6.82    10.50     0.04     0.23    10.49     2.97P    0.12R    0.00  
Bournemouth     25   30  -13       3.75    70.80     0.32    52.88     6.50   -22.61     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P    7.33R    0.49  
Birmingham      25   29   +0      -6.56    18.56    -2.03    58.84     6.58     1.75     0.00     0.01     2.14     0.48P    0.84R    0.02  
Bolton          25   28   -5      -7.46    15.52    -6.84    57.65     6.51    -3.60     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.28P    1.36R    0.07  
Sheff_Wed       24   25   -1      -5.94    20.24     1.74    52.88     6.64    -4.21     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    6.42R    0.51  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -7.00    16.10    -5.59    52.49     6.58   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    7.22R    0.53  
Millwall        25   22  -24      -3.77    29.95   -10.85    44.52     6.17   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.69R    7.69  
Doncaster       25   21  -24      -1.48    42.74    -6.05    40.61     6.07   -37.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.83R   21.41  
Yeovil          24   17  -19      -4.24    27.01    -0.93    37.37     6.18   -34.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.76R   39.93  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.03    14.26    -7.32    38.94     6.26   -33.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.41R   29.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, Bradford 1 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       25   55  +21      12.19    95.42     8.25    91.01     6.52    31.73    36.02    66.20    99.59    75.57P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   25   54  +31      10.49    92.62    16.99    90.47     6.60    42.68    36.11    66.12    99.46    75.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   52  +22       3.01    65.33     2.29    88.91     6.32    36.14    24.96    55.09    99.05    70.91P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         25   47   +9      10.07    91.26     5.01    78.97     6.59    13.69     1.72     6.73    79.81    20.50P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       25   41   +8       7.78    84.78    10.21    68.15     6.74     5.09     0.03     0.28    21.53     3.41P    0.12R    0.00  
Peterborough    25   39   +5      -1.50    42.10    -4.30    74.67     6.74    15.72     0.47     2.18    59.39    16.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall         25   38   +5       2.42    63.13     2.94    68.34     6.54     7.35     0.02     0.20    22.04     4.52P    0.07R    0.00  
Swindon         24   37  +10      -3.46    31.34    -1.54    74.54     6.84    21.00     0.55     2.50    59.94    18.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale       25   36   -3       5.26    75.89     2.98    62.91     6.67    -6.53     0.00     0.03     6.08     0.94P    1.34R    0.04  
MK_Dons         24   35   +5      -3.62    30.79    -3.64    69.64     6.91    11.65     0.10     0.50    30.39     7.71P    0.13R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.59    68.39     1.49    66.37     6.96    16.42     0.02     0.18    17.47     4.30P    0.38R    0.01  
Bradford        25   32   +6       1.32    57.81    11.33    57.65     6.51     1.17     0.00     0.00     1.41     0.17P    5.71R    0.32  
Colchester      25   31   -1      -0.35    48.65     3.44    57.01     6.48    -5.34     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.15P    7.33R    0.43  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.25    52.09    -0.71    56.95     6.85   -10.44     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.19P    9.14R    0.66  
Gillingham      26   29  -12       0.00    51.13    -1.25    51.43     6.28   -20.24     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   29.27R    3.60  
Oldham          24   27   -5      -1.85    40.51     0.96    52.67     6.63   -11.49     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   22.49R    2.31  
Carlisle        25   27  -17       0.25    52.70    -4.61    49.54     6.30   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   41.52R    6.45  
Shrewsbury      26   26   -6      -5.46    23.11    -0.04    50.47     6.19   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   32.28R    4.23  
Sheff_Utd       25   25   -9     -10.58     7.22   -10.99    55.13     6.56    -6.89     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.10P   12.46R    1.13  
Tranmere        25   25  -16      -4.65    26.64    -8.94    51.09     6.46   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   31.39R    4.43  
Notts_County    26   24   -7     -11.24     6.72    -6.20    50.54     6.40    -8.48     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   31.53R    4.58  
Crewe           25   24  -27       0.13    51.98    -9.27    43.33     6.11   -42.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.60R   33.38  
Bristol_City    24   23   -3     -11.74     5.65    -5.47    54.21     7.01    -1.59     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.13P   16.56R    2.07  
Stevenage       24   19  -21      -6.11    18.65    -8.94    42.61     6.48   -31.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   79.68R   36.36  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           25   47  +14       3.95    69.76     1.13    83.58     6.68    25.38    43.38    81.63    98.48    87.12P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   45   +6       9.38    89.67     3.87    73.81     6.57     6.19     4.56    25.39    76.24    36.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         24   44  +18       2.48    63.17     5.62    81.35     6.74    28.29    30.98    72.87    96.80    80.67P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             25   43   +7       5.66    77.44     2.47    74.87     6.71    11.48     6.07    32.24    81.18    44.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             25   42   +9       2.85    65.27     1.86    75.21     6.51    15.48     7.08    34.87    84.06    49.20P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   41   +9       6.25    80.48     6.17    72.42     6.87    10.89     3.57    21.63    70.27    32.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +13       1.82    59.97     6.73    72.39     6.75    17.78     3.74    22.23    72.29    36.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County       24   38   +7       8.97    89.00    12.70    65.26     6.87     2.88     0.38     4.12    29.93     8.37P    0.32R    0.07  
Morecambe            27   37   -4       1.87    60.10    -1.53    61.04     6.10    -6.68     0.02     0.56     9.83     2.48P    1.19R    0.30  
Dag_&_Red            26   34   +0      -0.05    50.39     2.04    60.14     6.33    -1.65     0.02     0.49     9.29     2.41P    2.01R    0.60  
Plymouth             25   34   -3       2.39    63.79    -0.14    60.35     6.35    -5.71     0.03     0.51     9.09     2.29P    1.91R    0.55  
Cheltenham           25   33   -3      -1.64    41.38    -3.68    61.75     6.59    -2.84     0.06     0.97    13.93     4.13P    1.47R    0.42  
Exeter               25   32   -3      -2.53    37.18    -3.43    61.19     6.63    -2.33     0.06     0.91    12.93     3.83P    1.74R    0.57  
York                 26   31   +0      -1.62    42.09     3.90    55.96     6.21    -3.21     0.01     0.09     2.76     0.66P    6.83R    2.35  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   31   -2       1.03    56.45     4.10    55.76     6.40    -7.75     0.00     0.06     2.74     0.56P    8.48R    3.12  
Hartlepool           25   31   -4      -4.17    29.26    -5.62    60.62     6.63    -2.45     0.02     0.63    11.29     3.46P    2.18R    0.68  
Mansfield            26   29   -9       0.51    53.89     1.45    51.98     6.30   -15.21     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.11P   23.04R   10.65  
Wycombe              24   28   -3      -4.05    29.09    -1.91    56.76     6.80    -4.97     0.01     0.22     4.63     1.27P    7.46R    3.00  
Bury                 25   27   -4      -7.93    14.76    -5.04    56.95     6.82    -2.31     0.01     0.21     4.84     1.48P    7.04R    2.77  
Portsmouth           25   27   -9      -9.65    10.09   -12.56    58.23     6.76    -5.45     0.01     0.28     6.16     1.98P    5.26R    1.97  
Bristol_Rovers       24   26   -4      -4.38    27.26    -0.76    54.28     6.67    -6.40     0.00     0.07     1.97     0.51P   13.18R    5.52  
Accrington_Stanley   25   26   -8      -3.65    31.42    -1.34    50.06     6.38   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.08P   32.83R   17.14  
Torquay              26   26  -13      -5.95    21.36    -7.82    50.03     6.25   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P   33.73R   17.46  
Northampton          25   22  -14      -7.93    13.31    -8.19    47.21     6.45   -18.74     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   51.30R   32.83  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 10 January 2014, Welling 1 1 Dartford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.53    81.13    11.96    93.87     5.81    51.50    66.45    99.89    78.58P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.38    95.32    15.40    89.76     6.52    38.68    29.49    98.41    49.52P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.33    94.02     4.05    71.80     5.62    -3.40     0.04    24.05     2.68P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.10    61.41     0.56    80.61     6.48    24.49     3.05    80.07    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          28   42   +9       2.68    63.34     8.24    65.77     6.01     6.97     0.01     6.66     1.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.41    32.31    -4.03    73.78     6.07    17.73     0.14    41.80    11.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       0.91    54.66    -7.01    76.08     6.47    12.32     0.63    54.34    13.09P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   41   +8       3.30    67.32     4.85    69.61     6.26     9.67     0.03    18.76     3.19P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         26   41   +2       7.17    83.73     4.73    65.77     6.02    -2.08     0.01     5.94     0.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.26    87.24     7.08    68.03     6.84     1.19     0.06    13.94     2.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.22    72.79     7.68    68.61     6.57     9.62     0.04    15.83     2.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.86    54.99     0.55    66.79     6.50     4.78     0.03     9.91     1.80P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   35   +4      -8.07    13.73    -7.94    67.88     6.15    12.43     0.01    12.48     3.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          25   35   +2       3.74    69.82     7.21    64.27     6.66     2.71     0.00     5.32     0.87P    0.15R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.77    30.01     0.32    66.17     6.47    11.01     0.01     9.02     2.01P    0.05R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.86    21.61    -5.28    60.51     6.12    -0.14     0.00     1.13     0.24P    0.44R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.50    42.48    -0.56    57.16     5.94    -7.54     0.00     0.21     0.04P    1.59R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.16    44.31    -0.81    53.43     6.39   -16.22     0.00     0.10     0.01P    7.23R    0.00  
Southport        25   26  -16      -1.73    41.14    -4.82    49.66     6.16   -24.56     0.00     0.00     0.00P   19.30R    0.00  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.13    20.30    -6.82    61.51     6.49    16.31     0.00     2.13     0.65P    0.46R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.05    51.03    -3.80    47.72     6.28   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.88R    0.02  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.59    36.65    -0.12    43.74     6.11   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.47R    0.06  
Dartford         27   19  -26      -9.63     8.15   -11.73    39.23     5.73   -35.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.32R    0.31  
Hyde_United      26    3  -51     -16.53     0.09   -19.69    17.66     5.31   -75.17     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.60  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10