Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 10 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       6.00    83.63     2.82    79.30     5.66    36.63    23.72    53.63    77.01    90.44    99.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.50    51.89     6.44    82.58     5.23    58.87    53.82    79.75    92.61    97.73    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.40    76.21     1.05    77.80     5.68    34.73    16.15    41.61    68.16    85.77    98.44     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       0.95    55.61     5.54    73.20     5.84    37.86     4.82    17.08    37.15    63.57    93.06     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.30    75.41     4.01    67.82     5.83    20.58     0.60     3.05     9.22    22.35    70.84     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.21    84.07    -5.49    65.61     5.87     4.73     0.23     1.28     4.25    12.00    51.81     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.15    24.81    -7.87    68.54     5.66    25.20     0.66     3.58    11.47    27.43    77.34     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.20    84.04     6.01    56.82     5.79     1.78     0.00     0.03     0.14     0.68     7.99     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.23    58.45     6.60    51.10     5.84     1.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.36     0.19R    0.00  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.10    65.25     7.96    42.24     5.70   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     7.32R    0.94  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.07    50.59     1.12    43.45     5.54   -13.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.65R    0.46  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.03    51.16    -2.54    42.24     5.59   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.79R    0.94  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.15    25.54     2.21    45.10     5.71    -3.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     2.71R    0.30  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.70    22.56    -0.35    44.02     5.80    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     4.26R    0.44  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.14    43.32    -4.66    37.84     5.45   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.43R    5.61  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.45    35.26   -10.08    37.98     5.48   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.45R    5.97  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.49    48.10    -2.52    35.66     5.35   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.92R   11.88  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.10    50.87     1.42    31.46     5.12   -32.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.63R   35.96  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.84     9.31    -3.26    35.13     5.52   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.51R   12.68  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -6.98    11.93    -8.41    32.87     5.36   -28.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.13R   24.82  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 10 January 2014, Leicester 4 1 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       25   54  +19      10.18    92.13     4.41    90.08     6.51    30.16    63.58    84.63    99.43    88.73P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.33    87.94     9.35    82.38     6.70    25.78    16.32    44.08    92.24    56.40P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.46    81.76     2.41    81.51     6.72    19.79    12.50    36.19    89.83    51.78P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   44  +15       5.66    77.62     8.87    77.57     6.62    22.45     4.40    18.33    78.02    31.79P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       4.05    71.37     5.32    73.19     6.73    14.67     1.35     6.39    53.13    17.43P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.34    63.08     7.70    66.66     6.73     9.82     0.16     0.96    19.57     4.77P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.82    39.91    -0.36    70.04     6.60    12.79     0.46     2.50    35.11    11.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       0.78    54.70     5.02    66.63     6.79     9.24     0.17     0.96    19.46     4.76P    0.03R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -2.02    39.56    -4.23    69.26     6.89     8.28     0.37     2.16    30.62     9.59P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.23    49.04    -0.13    65.30     6.70     3.95     0.07     0.51    13.43     3.47P    0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.74    35.16    -4.22    69.03     7.02     8.98     0.44     2.08    30.03     9.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -0.94    45.19    -4.20    61.99     6.58    -4.07     0.01     0.10     5.48     1.21P    0.24R    0.00  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4      -0.08    50.17     6.62    59.89     6.69     2.13     0.01     0.06     3.52     0.68P    0.67R    0.03  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.13    19.12    -1.16    65.83     7.03    12.45     0.14     0.86    18.24     5.57P    0.11R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.76    30.21     3.62    61.07     6.72     6.27     0.01     0.09     5.27     1.22P    0.47R    0.01  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.73    71.04     0.93    54.24     6.67   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.06P    5.53R    0.33  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.81    20.76    -1.89    60.16     6.76     2.65     0.01     0.07     3.95     1.04P    0.60R    0.01  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -7.12    16.18    -6.81    58.32     6.74    -3.21     0.00     0.01     1.95     0.52P    1.41R    0.09  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.88    16.30    -5.40    52.34     6.60   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    8.14R    0.62  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.72    20.08    -1.57    49.67     6.72   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   16.20R    1.79  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -2.93    34.45   -10.52    45.58     6.43   -33.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    39.18R    6.91  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.77    47.17    -5.95    41.30     6.21   -38.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.71R   20.33  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.38    31.11    -0.74    38.14     6.33   -34.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.15R   37.54  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -6.91    14.78    -7.08    38.87     6.30   -33.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.40R   32.34  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2014, Shrewsbury 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.38    94.47     7.55    89.80     6.73    30.40    35.88    64.38    99.08    73.47P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   24   51  +27      10.41    92.64    15.45    88.89     6.82    38.77    33.62    61.51    98.83    71.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   49  +20       2.21    61.13     1.50    87.49     6.54    34.33    24.45    51.71    98.18    68.10P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.55    92.75     5.74    80.24     6.81    15.55     4.04    13.09    84.38    27.15P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.46    47.27    -3.86    75.92     6.97    16.44     1.18     5.19    66.20    21.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       7.14    83.20     9.65    66.71     6.95     3.43     0.04     0.28    16.99     2.80P    0.33R    0.00  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.70    64.80     2.84    68.87     6.77     7.54     0.07     0.47    25.45     5.44P    0.08R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       6.00    78.99     4.00    63.79     6.96    -5.31     0.01     0.08     8.72     1.38P    1.23R    0.03  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.75    25.14    -2.02    72.97     7.03    20.08     0.60     2.48    51.54    16.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.59    68.28     1.51    66.46     7.01    16.60     0.04     0.27    18.52     4.57P    0.38R    0.02  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.64    25.77    -3.71    68.35     7.12    11.12     0.07     0.52    25.39     6.76P    0.26R    0.00  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.53    59.09    11.14    58.03     6.85     1.17     0.00     0.01     2.14     0.34P    6.27R    0.39  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.42    53.01    -0.51    56.91     6.88   -10.45     0.00     0.01     1.32     0.24P    9.87R    0.83  
Gillingham      25   29   -9       0.46    53.27     0.26    53.19     6.60   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P   21.91R    2.65  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.77    46.66     2.21    54.77     6.65    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.08P   15.11R    1.63  
Carlisle        24   27  -13       0.18    52.01    -3.14    50.79     6.53   -23.56     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   35.17R    5.60  
Shrewsbury      25   26   -5      -4.66    26.39     0.00    51.41     6.40    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   28.38R    4.01  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.48     9.10   -10.40    56.77     6.78    -5.50     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.24P    9.49R    0.83  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -3.00    33.60     0.71    50.90     6.82   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   32.59R    5.65  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.56    26.23    -9.26    51.40     6.70   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   31.69R    5.09  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.81    56.16    -8.83    44.56     6.33   -40.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   73.15R   28.73  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.30     5.81    -5.37    54.77     7.30    -1.32     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.20P   16.43R    2.23  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.71     4.02    -7.00    48.87     6.62    -9.56     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   42.84R    9.12  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.18    22.69    -8.49    43.72     6.73   -30.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   74.77R   33.18  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2014, Exeter 0 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.28    66.80     0.49    82.11     6.88    23.59    42.58    78.55    96.98    84.26P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       7.98    86.56     3.18    72.23     6.78     5.28     4.48    22.90    67.32    32.24P    0.02R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.17    62.05     3.59    79.09     6.94    23.45    25.13    64.25    93.09    73.53P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.27    67.54     1.93    75.81     6.77    15.76    11.65    43.62    84.80    55.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.82    74.38     0.70    72.32     6.90     7.13     4.64    24.30    67.79    34.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.41    63.35     7.05    72.77     6.97    17.82     6.35    29.21    72.93    41.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       5.00    75.92     5.77    70.39     7.02     9.27     3.23    17.81    58.58    27.20P    0.05R    0.01  
Newport_County       23   37   +7       9.25    90.38    12.43    65.62     7.01     3.02     0.79     5.92    31.72    10.18P    0.30R    0.07  
Morecambe            26   36   -4       2.29    62.61    -1.46    61.39     6.29    -6.70     0.08     0.99    11.44     3.11P    1.23R    0.33  
Dag_&_Red            25   34   +1       1.12    56.54     2.82    61.73     6.54    -0.38     0.14     1.53    14.42     4.29P    1.18R    0.33  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.64    46.87    -3.23    63.14     6.75    -1.80     0.24     2.45    19.25     6.38P    0.99R    0.30  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.67    65.56    -0.21    60.37     6.53    -6.12     0.05     0.88     9.73     2.78P    2.09R    0.55  
Exeter               24   32   -2      -1.53    42.08    -2.93    62.98     6.85    -0.69     0.26     2.50    19.64     6.89P    1.08R    0.31  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   31   +0       1.88    61.27     5.35    57.79     6.67    -4.78     0.04     0.47     5.62     1.51P    5.27R    1.88  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.84    30.45    -4.05    63.15     6.86     2.13     0.24     2.73    20.75     7.90P    1.00R    0.29  
Mansfield            25   29   -7       0.87    56.06     1.93    53.41     6.52   -13.13     0.00     0.07     1.24     0.27P   17.04R    7.54  
York                 25   28   -2      -2.54    37.04     2.89    53.68     6.42    -6.14     0.00     0.06     1.45     0.36P   14.09R    5.92  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.25    13.12    -3.50    59.04     7.00     2.83     0.05     0.81     9.18     3.20P    4.09R    1.49  
Wycombe              23   27   -3      -3.66    30.61    -1.90    57.01     6.99    -5.18     0.03     0.38     5.27     1.53P    7.41R    2.96  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.37    10.45   -12.71    58.29     6.96    -5.90     0.02     0.51     6.85     2.49P    5.58R    2.14  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.18    33.61    -1.28    50.31     6.56   -14.93     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.08P   31.55R   15.99  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.47    21.79    -1.05    52.30     6.84    -7.89     0.00     0.04     1.16     0.30P   20.97R   10.09  
Torquay              25   23  -15      -6.94    16.95    -8.82    47.63     6.41   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   48.90R   29.68  
Northampton          24   22  -12      -7.15    15.46    -7.01    49.33     6.61   -15.71     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.07P   37.10R   20.12  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 10 January 2014, Welling 1 1 Dartford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.61    81.52    12.06    93.80     5.80    51.35    66.53    99.88    78.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.42    95.35    15.50    89.67     6.52    38.60    29.33    98.55    49.42P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.29    94.12     3.98    71.78     5.57    -3.37     0.06    23.87     2.76P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.19    61.81     0.64    80.59     6.52    24.41     3.19    79.95    25.49P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          28   42   +9       2.75    63.88     8.36    65.69     6.03     6.87     0.00     6.79     1.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.41    32.50    -4.06    73.68     6.06    17.58     0.16    41.64    11.64P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.12    55.83    -6.67    75.92     6.41    12.05     0.57    53.62    13.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   41   +8       3.35    67.64     4.92    69.57     6.24     9.64     0.03    18.69     3.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         26   41   +2       7.08    83.36     4.54    65.85     6.02    -1.95     0.00     6.12     0.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.22    87.17     6.99    68.10     6.80     1.29     0.05    14.25     2.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.16    72.68     7.64    68.62     6.54     9.63     0.03    16.07     2.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.92    55.21     0.69    66.66     6.47     4.58     0.01     9.52     1.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   35   +4      -8.15    13.20    -8.06    67.87     6.20    12.41     0.02    12.82     3.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          25   35   +2       3.81    70.08     7.30    64.22     6.65     2.58     0.00     5.31     0.77P    0.19R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.71    30.23     0.44    66.18     6.48    11.07     0.01     9.04     1.95P    0.05R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.95    21.25    -5.47    60.67     6.14     0.06     0.00     1.18     0.23P    0.45R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.54    42.30    -0.67    57.27     5.99    -7.39     0.00     0.22     0.04P    1.64R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.16    44.10    -0.84    53.51     6.43   -16.11     0.00     0.10     0.02P    7.34R    0.00  
Southport        25   26  -16      -1.75    40.86    -4.89    49.69     6.13   -24.47     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.31R    0.00  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.20    19.89    -6.89    61.51     6.54    16.31     0.00     2.38     0.68P    0.52R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.09    50.72    -3.86    47.73     6.24   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.26R    0.01  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.79    35.76    -0.48    43.94     6.12   -25.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.26R    0.07  
Dartford         27   19  -26      -9.62     8.28   -11.73    39.21     5.72   -35.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.88R    0.28  
Hyde_United      26    3  -51     -16.42     0.08   -19.48    17.60     5.30   -75.27     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.64  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10