Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 9 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       5.99    83.74     2.78    79.29     5.66    36.61    23.54    53.67    77.02    90.61    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.46    51.68     6.35    82.62     5.25    58.99    54.16    80.07    92.54    97.60    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.35    76.25     0.97    77.91     5.65    34.86    16.29    42.02    69.18    86.18    98.45     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       0.97    55.86     5.58    73.14     5.83    37.85     4.68    16.62    36.50    63.21    92.80     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.31    75.30     4.04    67.82     5.83    20.63     0.50     2.98     9.22    22.78    71.04     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.15    83.37    -5.53    65.55     5.85     4.65     0.19     1.17     4.14    11.90    51.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.22    24.45    -7.97    68.57     5.57    25.17     0.63     3.46    11.25    27.00    77.42     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.22    83.98     6.05    56.87     5.79     1.81     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.68     8.03     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.29    58.86     6.60    51.14     5.86     1.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.29     0.18R    0.01  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.16    65.39     8.04    42.21     5.69   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     7.52R    0.85  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.01    50.92     1.19    43.42     5.55   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.71R    0.47  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.02    51.29    -2.51    42.23     5.57   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.86R    1.05  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.06    26.02     2.38    45.01     5.72    -3.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.86R    0.32  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.68    22.86    -0.33    43.98     5.82    -7.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     4.46R    0.51  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.11    43.62    -4.60    37.77     5.46   -27.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.82R    5.82  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.49    35.03   -10.12    38.02     5.51   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.21R    6.10  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.42    48.85    -2.40    35.63     5.38   -29.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.32R   11.94  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.21    49.99     1.31    31.52     5.15   -32.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.97R   35.70  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.95     9.19    -3.45    35.27     5.55   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.53R   12.16  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -6.98    12.10    -8.38    32.84     5.34   -28.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.56R   25.07  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Birmingham 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       24   51  +16       9.50    91.12     2.89    88.36     6.70    26.96    53.82    76.37    98.56    82.59P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.20    87.66     9.23    82.40     6.73    25.83    18.52    43.99    92.20    56.05P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.40    81.98     2.35    81.59     6.70    19.90    14.57    36.34    89.82    51.72P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   44  +18       5.90    78.70    10.04    79.19     6.76    25.89     9.43    26.51    84.01    40.14P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       4.06    71.44     5.37    73.17     6.71    14.61     1.62     6.49    52.58    16.96P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.34    62.88     7.68    66.76     6.71     9.99     0.19     0.97    19.39     4.73P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.72    40.48    -0.25    69.99     6.63    12.74     0.51     2.51    34.51    11.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       0.85    54.99     5.10    66.52     6.72     9.06     0.14     0.85    18.24     4.57P    0.03R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -1.85    40.43    -3.95    69.16     6.91     8.07     0.43     2.10    29.64     9.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.12    49.78     0.00    65.22     6.68     3.81     0.08     0.49    12.85     3.15P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.73    35.41    -4.17    69.16     7.00     9.11     0.49     2.13    29.84     9.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -1.04    44.77    -4.35    62.08     6.59    -3.94     0.01     0.09     5.43     1.27P    0.26R    0.01  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4       0.04    50.85     6.74    59.83     6.73     2.03     0.00     0.04     3.42     0.66P    0.66R    0.02  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.09    19.54    -1.08    65.84     7.00    12.44     0.14     0.86    17.62     5.32P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.89    29.98     3.50    61.04     6.81     6.24     0.02     0.14     5.33     1.32P    0.48R    0.01  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.77    71.00     0.98    54.25     6.66   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.06P    5.34R    0.34  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.70    21.39    -1.77    60.15     6.77     2.62     0.01     0.08     3.85     0.98P    0.62R    0.02  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -7.04    16.28    -6.74    58.27     6.81    -3.29     0.00     0.03     1.99     0.52P    1.49R    0.06  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.86    16.59    -5.37    52.36     6.64   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    8.31R    0.66  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.60    20.55    -1.37    49.49     6.75   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   16.80R    2.00  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -2.92    34.62   -10.56    45.46     6.41   -33.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    39.47R    7.50  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.73    47.05    -5.92    41.27     6.22   -38.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.54R   20.46  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.42    30.92    -0.91    38.20     6.31   -34.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.08R   37.32  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.11    14.17    -7.45    38.99     6.29   -33.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.74R   31.58  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2014, Shrewsbury 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.44    94.59     7.63    89.73     6.72    30.25    35.66    64.05    99.02    73.11P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   24   51  +27      10.49    92.86    15.61    88.81     6.83    38.59    33.38    60.96    98.72    70.66P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   49  +20       2.20    61.16     1.48    87.53     6.54    34.44    24.55    52.29    98.16    68.34P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.49    92.80     5.64    80.34     6.78    15.65     4.33    13.40    84.68    27.33P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.44    47.67    -3.88    75.89     7.03    16.45     1.21     5.06    65.74    21.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       7.17    83.20     9.68    66.71     6.98     3.47     0.02     0.26    16.84     2.78P    0.36R    0.00  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.81    65.56     2.97    68.79     6.79     7.45     0.09     0.46    25.60     5.34P    0.10R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       5.78    78.32     3.63    63.97     6.98    -5.04     0.01     0.09     9.05     1.39P    1.15R    0.03  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.86    24.54    -2.17    73.02     7.05    20.12     0.59     2.57    51.60    16.91P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.62    68.42     1.59    66.53     7.04    16.61     0.05     0.26    18.85     4.79P    0.46R    0.03  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.73    25.53    -3.81    68.45     7.11    11.26     0.12     0.59    25.69     6.85P    0.22R    0.01  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.67    59.56    11.35    57.88     6.76     0.95     0.00     0.01     1.86     0.25P    6.29R    0.37  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.58    53.96    -0.31    56.86     6.84   -10.57     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.17P    9.86R    0.84  
Gillingham      25   29   -9       0.37    52.95     0.08    53.25     6.56   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03P   21.53R    2.58  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.85    46.17     2.16    54.79     6.64    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P   15.07R    1.51  
Carlisle        24   27  -13       0.13    51.55    -3.16    50.88     6.55   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   34.91R    5.52  
Shrewsbury      25   26   -5      -4.74    26.06    -0.14    51.54     6.37    -9.55     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   27.62R    3.71  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.45     9.38   -10.33    56.67     6.79    -5.66     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.21P    9.79R    0.88  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -2.96    33.67     0.75    50.84     6.83   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   33.32R    5.79  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.45    26.97    -9.16    51.34     6.73   -20.46     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   31.73R    5.40  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.84    56.50    -8.78    44.50     6.29   -40.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   73.73R   29.07  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.35     5.92    -5.40    54.76     7.27    -1.36     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.19P   16.26R    2.25  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.59     4.04    -6.78    48.73     6.57    -9.76     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   43.12R    9.38  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.23    22.13    -8.66    43.80     6.70   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    74.46R   32.66  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2014, Exeter 0 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.38    67.36     0.65    81.93     6.92    23.36    41.92    77.64    96.76    83.64P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       8.17    87.20     3.43    72.06     6.76     5.05     4.25    22.14    66.52    31.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.20    62.41     3.58    79.18     6.91    23.58    25.89    65.19    93.37    74.30P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.21    67.16     1.88    75.76     6.74    15.73    11.67    43.71    84.85    55.85P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.94    75.19     0.78    72.27     6.91     7.08     4.61    24.15    68.11    34.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.37    63.28     6.97    72.88     6.97    18.01     6.60    29.60    73.38    41.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       4.99    75.96     5.75    70.36     7.00     9.22     3.15    17.92    58.47    27.09P    0.04R    0.01  
Newport_County       23   37   +7       9.26    90.29    12.49    65.54     7.08     2.88     0.86     6.23    31.44    10.63P    0.39R    0.09  
Morecambe            26   36   -4       2.24    62.19    -1.50    61.47     6.30    -6.59     0.06     1.09    11.89     3.29P    1.14R    0.29  
Dag_&_Red            25   34   +1       1.10    56.59     2.76    61.81     6.54    -0.23     0.12     1.50    14.66     4.39P    1.21R    0.35  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.67    46.70    -3.24    63.14     6.79    -1.81     0.23     2.53    19.65     6.60P    0.99R    0.29  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.50    64.49    -0.40    60.53     6.53    -5.88     0.05     0.89    10.04     2.77P    2.09R    0.58  
Exeter               24   32   -2      -1.39    42.94    -2.72    62.80     6.81    -0.90     0.19     2.45    18.63     6.40P    1.09R    0.32  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   31   +0       1.85    61.05     5.31    57.85     6.68    -4.71     0.02     0.38     5.89     1.39P    5.35R    1.79  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.80    30.69    -3.97    63.06     6.89     2.04     0.26     2.70    20.53     7.67P    1.07R    0.30  
Mansfield            25   29   -7       0.88    55.89     1.94    53.41     6.51   -13.12     0.00     0.04     1.27     0.30P   17.07R    7.29  
York                 25   28   -2      -2.57    36.93     2.88    53.68     6.38    -6.15     0.00     0.05     1.39     0.34P   14.05R    5.79  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.20    13.48    -3.43    58.97     6.97     2.68     0.05     0.81     9.02     3.11P    4.24R    1.50  
Wycombe              23   27   -3      -3.81    29.81    -2.04    57.08     6.97    -5.04     0.03     0.39     5.27     1.57P    7.27R    2.81  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.28    10.78   -12.55    58.18     7.01    -6.12     0.04     0.53     6.89     2.44P    5.91R    2.32  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.25    32.83    -1.43    50.36     6.56   -14.85     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.10P   31.73R   16.07  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.59    21.13    -1.14    52.44     6.79    -7.72     0.00     0.04     1.12     0.31P   20.45R    9.76  
Torquay              25   23  -15      -7.06    16.51    -9.06    47.77     6.42   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   48.37R   29.68  
Northampton          24   22  -12      -7.09    15.55    -6.92    49.34     6.62   -15.73     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.06P   37.51R   20.77  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 9 January 2014, Forest_Green 1 1 Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.62    82.00    12.04    93.83     5.76    51.39    66.38    99.87    78.37P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.38    95.44    15.44    89.74     6.51    38.72    29.57    98.43    49.92P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.25    93.97     3.90    71.80     5.62    -3.43     0.05    23.82     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.08    61.29     0.46    80.68     6.49    24.57     3.14    80.21    25.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Halifax          28   42   +9       2.62    63.13     8.19    65.70     6.01     6.81     0.00     6.48     1.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.65    31.58    -4.40    73.86     6.06    17.90     0.17    42.12    11.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.02    55.49    -6.82    75.93     6.47    12.13     0.53    53.22    12.72P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   41   +8       3.56    68.61     5.29    69.39     6.22     9.29     0.02    17.42     2.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         26   41   +2       7.23    84.02     4.82    65.75     5.99    -2.16     0.01     5.72     0.80P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.08    86.74     6.75    68.22     6.77     1.49     0.05    14.10     2.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.23    72.87     7.74    68.59     6.61     9.59     0.04    15.84     2.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.85    54.97     0.55    66.72     6.49     4.70     0.01     9.62     1.89P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   35   +4      -8.06    13.72    -8.00    67.88     6.14    12.45     0.01    12.24     3.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     25   34   +6      -3.67    30.46     0.47    66.11     6.50    10.92     0.01     8.86     1.93P    0.05R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.24    72.12     7.40    65.72     6.89     4.37     0.02     8.44     1.28P    0.14R    0.00  
Hereford         26   32   -2      -5.93    21.18    -5.42    60.59     6.16    -0.05     0.00     1.22     0.26P    0.42R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.42    42.98    -0.40    57.16     5.98    -7.50     0.00     0.22     0.04P    1.65R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.02    44.99    -0.65    53.34     6.39   -16.40     0.00     0.09     0.01P    7.32R    0.00  
Southport        25   26  -16      -1.71    41.21    -4.82    49.62     6.11   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.17R    0.00  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.08    20.16    -6.68    61.47     6.53    16.26     0.00     2.09     0.63P    0.53R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.16    50.01    -3.87    47.76     6.28   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.78R    0.01  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.74    35.86    -0.40    43.90     6.15   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.14R    0.07  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.51     7.99   -12.07    38.80     5.92   -36.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.67R    0.38  
Hyde_United      26    3  -51     -16.48     0.09   -19.52    17.67     5.29   -75.19     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.54  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10