Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 8 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       5.98    83.62     2.80    79.34     5.66    36.68    24.01    53.82    77.29    90.42    99.12     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.49    51.60     6.42    82.57     5.27    58.91    53.50    79.41    92.46    97.56    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.36    76.08     0.98    77.91     5.65    34.83    16.26    42.48    69.44    86.35    98.39     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       1.02    56.20     5.64    73.16     5.87    37.81     4.92    16.82    36.52    63.20    92.90     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.28    75.41     4.00    67.83     5.78    20.62     0.53     2.86     8.97    22.77    70.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.19    83.53    -5.47    65.57     5.85     4.70     0.24     1.20     4.18    11.89    51.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.12    24.89    -7.85    68.55     5.59    25.10     0.53     3.39    11.02    27.11    77.43     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.27    84.10     6.13    56.76     5.82     1.67     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.64     8.06     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.31    59.36     6.68    51.04     5.88     1.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.40     0.21R    0.01  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.07    64.77     7.92    42.27     5.69   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     7.38R    0.90  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.12    50.27     1.05    43.49     5.55   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.50R    0.49  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.02    51.31    -2.54    42.21     5.56   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.74R    0.96  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.06    26.04     2.34    45.01     5.72    -3.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.75R    0.26  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.66    22.80    -0.29    43.95     5.80    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.48R    0.50  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.11    43.49    -4.58    37.76     5.48   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.05R    6.27  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.41    35.39   -10.03    37.98     5.45   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.42R    6.16  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.61    47.59    -2.69    35.78     5.39   -28.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.33R   11.73  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.18    50.47     1.29    31.53     5.15   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.57R   35.82  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.84     9.21    -3.36    35.10     5.54   -19.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.87R   12.69  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -7.02    11.88    -8.43    32.95     5.34   -28.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.70R   24.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Birmingham 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       24   51  +16       9.73    91.59     3.33    88.14     6.69    26.60    52.62    75.45    98.65    81.78P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.22    87.64     9.18    82.43     6.73    25.84    19.08    44.41    92.38    56.50P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.38    81.70     2.32    81.56     6.72    19.85    14.69    36.76    89.56    51.67P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   44  +18       5.98    79.23    10.19    79.21     6.73    25.87     9.64    26.45    83.69    40.14P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       3.96    71.43     5.18    73.28     6.66    14.80     1.76     6.48    53.06    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.38    63.39     7.72    66.71     6.75     9.89     0.23     1.01    19.31     4.77P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.72    40.49    -0.23    69.89     6.69    12.59     0.56     2.46    33.67    10.83P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       1.00    55.86     5.27    66.41     6.73     8.93     0.15     0.82    17.86     4.45P    0.03R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -1.90    39.90    -4.10    69.29     6.88     8.30     0.45     2.03    30.27     9.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.11    49.71     0.09    65.12     6.71     3.65     0.08     0.48    12.63     3.11P    0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.89    34.56    -4.41    69.29     7.02     9.33     0.52     2.27    30.51     9.86P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -1.13    44.04    -4.44    62.15     6.64    -3.82     0.01     0.13     5.65     1.31P    0.27R    0.01  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4      -0.13    49.79     6.46    59.97     6.70     2.30     0.01     0.08     3.53     0.73P    0.64R    0.02  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.10    19.27    -1.12    65.77     7.07    12.37     0.17     0.92    17.66     5.59P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.73    30.44     3.71    60.98     6.79     6.14     0.02     0.12     5.12     1.23P    0.55R    0.02  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.74    70.77     0.92    54.27     6.69   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P    5.56R    0.31  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.70    21.19    -1.75    60.04     6.77     2.50     0.01     0.10     3.69     0.97P    0.70R    0.02  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -7.13    16.12    -6.84    58.31     6.83    -3.21     0.00     0.04     2.09     0.57P    1.53R    0.04  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.95    16.23    -5.49    52.37     6.54   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    8.02R    0.61  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.64    20.39    -1.52    49.65     6.76   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   16.23R    1.82  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -2.95    34.29   -10.55    45.46     6.41   -33.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   39.75R    7.29  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.69    47.46    -5.91    41.33     6.25   -38.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.54R   20.44  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.31    31.53    -0.62    38.10     6.34   -34.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.21R   37.94  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.06    14.32    -7.39    38.95     6.26   -33.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.77R   31.48  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2014, Shrewsbury 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.39    94.58     7.60    89.75     6.75    30.29    36.29    64.44    99.04    73.71P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   24   51  +27      10.58    92.95    15.70    88.69     6.84    38.46    32.46    60.43    98.61    70.33P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   49  +20       2.20    60.89     1.53    87.51     6.54    34.39    24.90    52.28    98.24    68.21P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.59    92.84     5.83    80.23     6.82    15.52     4.28    13.41    84.32    27.24P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.46    47.26    -3.89    75.99     6.99    16.52     1.26     5.27    66.55    21.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       7.24    83.53     9.77    66.64     6.90     3.35     0.04     0.24    16.60     2.59P    0.32R    0.01  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.79    65.38     2.94    68.80     6.75     7.46     0.08     0.45    25.43     5.40P    0.10R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       5.76    78.26     3.63    63.97     6.91    -5.05     0.00     0.07     8.92     1.37P    1.12R    0.04  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.89    24.48    -2.22    73.07     7.08    20.25     0.56     2.61    51.97    16.95P    0.04R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.67    68.81     1.69    66.43     7.02    16.50     0.04     0.24    18.38     4.54P    0.46R    0.02  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.74    25.02    -3.83    68.50     7.10    11.29     0.09     0.52    25.91     7.00P    0.23R    0.01  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.63    59.67    11.28    57.93     6.77     1.06     0.00     0.01     1.80     0.32P    6.41R    0.39  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.35    52.70    -0.62    57.03     6.87   -10.32     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.18P    9.50R    0.82  
Gillingham      25   29   -9       0.34    52.76     0.03    53.24     6.53   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P   21.39R    2.62  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.87    45.96     2.10    54.93     6.64    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.08P   14.52R    1.47  
Carlisle        24   27  -13       0.11    51.61    -3.21    50.77     6.57   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   35.26R    5.72  
Shrewsbury      25   26   -5      -4.59    26.42     0.09    51.40     6.37    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   28.46R    4.04  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.54     9.04   -10.48    56.75     6.77    -5.51     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.23P    9.32R    0.86  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -3.16    32.91     0.49    51.03     6.86   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   32.19R    5.55  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.40    27.07    -9.12    51.25     6.68   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   32.28R    5.38  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.84    56.28    -8.74    44.48     6.27   -40.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.55R   29.11  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.22     6.15    -5.26    54.67     7.23    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.16P   16.58R    2.14  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.49     4.02    -6.71    48.67     6.55    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   43.71R    9.45  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.22    22.20    -8.58    43.83     6.69   -30.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    74.57R   32.38  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2014, Exeter 0 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.25    66.51     0.42    82.09     6.95    23.52    42.94    78.51    96.88    84.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       8.13    86.94     3.40    72.07     6.72     5.04     4.24    22.10    66.39    31.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.31    62.61     3.74    79.03     6.92    23.38    24.96    64.45    93.05    73.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.23    67.21     1.88    75.83     6.73    15.79    11.71    43.95    84.98    55.85P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.84    74.58     0.71    72.32     6.85     7.14     4.40    24.22    68.15    34.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.26    62.53     6.84    73.00     6.89    18.17     6.64    30.02    74.22    42.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       4.97    75.67     5.72    70.39     7.00     9.28     3.27    17.77    58.78    27.15P    0.04R    0.01  
Newport_County       23   37   +7       9.27    90.37    12.45    65.65     7.03     3.03     0.76     6.15    32.01    10.53P    0.32R    0.10  
Morecambe            26   36   -4       2.22    62.12    -1.49    61.45     6.30    -6.62     0.08     1.01    11.60     3.11P    1.28R    0.29  
Dag_&_Red            25   34   +1       1.01    56.03     2.66    61.80     6.53    -0.24     0.13     1.55    14.54     4.33P    1.16R    0.33  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.46    47.95    -2.92    62.99     6.76    -2.04     0.22     2.32    18.95     6.24P    1.05R    0.29  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.65    65.45    -0.24    60.42     6.54    -6.09     0.05     0.80     9.66     2.59P    2.18R    0.60  
Exeter               24   32   -2      -1.45    42.51    -2.81    62.85     6.82    -0.85     0.24     2.40    19.13     6.53P    1.07R    0.32  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   31   +0       1.83    60.82     5.27    57.83     6.63    -4.72     0.04     0.39     5.53     1.42P    5.11R    1.79  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.69    30.96    -3.84    62.93     6.84     1.87     0.20     2.46    19.93     7.44P    1.09R    0.30  
Mansfield            25   29   -7       0.89    55.91     1.98    53.38     6.57   -13.23     0.01     0.06     1.30     0.31P   17.56R    7.72  
York                 25   28   -2      -2.53    36.85     2.92    53.62     6.35    -6.21     0.00     0.05     1.34     0.26P   14.20R    5.77  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.27    13.36    -3.50    59.02     7.02     2.76     0.06     0.84     9.29     3.34P    4.11R    1.48  
Wycombe              23   27   -3      -3.66    30.61    -1.84    57.02     6.92    -5.12     0.02     0.33     5.19     1.41P    7.36R    2.89  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.51    10.06   -12.87    58.44     6.96    -5.75     0.03     0.55     7.08     2.57P    5.27R    1.93  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.25    32.97    -1.40    50.42     6.57   -14.77     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.11P   31.13R   16.03  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.69    20.78    -1.33    52.51     6.82    -7.62     0.00     0.04     1.19     0.30P   20.22R    9.52  
Torquay              25   23  -15      -6.93    16.77    -8.86    47.62     6.36   -20.94     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   48.97R   29.76  
Northampton          24   22  -12      -7.02    15.74    -6.88    49.26     6.60   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P   37.83R   20.85  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2014, Lincoln_City 4 1 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.62    81.47    12.02    93.77     5.80    51.32    66.55    99.87    78.66P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.49    95.46    15.60    89.66     6.48    38.57    29.18    98.47    49.30P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.14    93.82     3.78    71.75     5.62    -3.41     0.05    23.15     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       1.96    60.49     0.29    80.82     6.50    24.81     3.27    80.57    26.13P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          28   42   +9       2.54    62.73     8.06    65.79     5.97     7.01     0.01     6.40     1.11P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.36    32.54    -3.97    73.65     6.06    17.53     0.17    40.10    11.14P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.11    55.80    -6.68    75.90     6.44    12.02     0.60    52.30    12.59P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   41   +8       3.30    67.50     4.84    69.56     6.26     9.56     0.04    18.23     3.23P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         26   41   +2       7.17    83.74     4.70    65.81     6.04    -2.02     0.01     5.79     0.72P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.23    87.22     7.05    68.10     6.78     1.32     0.04    13.66     2.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.19    72.54     7.62    68.64     6.56     9.64     0.03    15.88     2.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.81    54.40     0.44    66.71     6.51     4.64     0.02     9.39     1.73P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   35   +4      -8.12    13.57    -8.05    67.90     6.18    12.52     0.01    12.10     3.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.17    72.37     7.30    65.81     6.90     4.49     0.01     8.69     1.41P    0.15R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.04    33.41     0.84    67.09     6.71    11.83     0.02    11.78     2.50P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.57    42.05    -0.64    57.31     6.03    -7.36     0.00     0.22     0.04P    1.61R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.69    21.74    -5.59    60.39     6.31    -0.96     0.00     1.30     0.23P    0.48R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.09    44.55    -0.79    53.42     6.37   -16.18     0.00     0.07     0.00P    7.12R    0.00  
Southport        25   26  -16      -1.66    41.35    -4.72    49.60     6.11   -24.68     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.39R    0.01  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.06    20.30    -6.68    61.46     6.47    16.23     0.00     2.02     0.65P    0.48R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.18    50.28    -3.96    47.84     6.30   -28.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.03R    0.03  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.59    36.54    -0.10    43.77     6.16   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.65R    0.07  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.39     8.21   -11.84    38.73     5.86   -36.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.92R    0.43  
Hyde_United      26    3  -51     -16.49     0.09   -19.53    17.62     5.31   -75.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   99.46  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10