Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 7 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       6.03    83.82     2.88    79.33     5.62    36.65    23.37    53.68    77.45    90.76    99.20     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.47    51.53     6.35    82.59     5.28    58.97    53.84    79.86    92.34    97.54    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.34    75.99     0.91    77.89     5.66    34.87    16.67    42.32    69.18    86.40    98.43     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       1.05    56.27     5.69    73.05     5.87    37.66     4.74    16.39    36.15    62.31    92.32     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.30    75.40     4.05    67.83     5.78    20.63     0.54     2.86     9.15    22.59    70.88     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.17    83.63    -5.54    65.64     5.87     4.80     0.21     1.34     4.45    12.47    52.24     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.17    24.61    -7.90    68.53     5.62    25.12     0.62     3.52    11.14    27.17    77.35     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.29    84.31     6.10    56.78     5.83     1.70     0.00     0.03     0.14     0.70     8.10     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.19    58.17     6.47    51.18     5.88     1.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.44     0.16R    0.01  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.12    65.17     7.99    42.19     5.69   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     7.62R    0.97  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.26    49.18     0.85    43.55     5.55   -13.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.61R    0.44  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.08    51.52    -2.44    42.19     5.52   -17.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.59R    0.95  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.05    26.39     2.40    45.00     5.73    -3.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     2.85R    0.29  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.69    22.38    -0.32    43.97     5.81    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     4.53R    0.54  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.16    43.43    -4.62    37.80     5.46   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.69R    5.82  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.48    35.32   -10.10    38.03     5.47   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.98R    5.94  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.56    47.79    -2.59    35.71     5.40   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.56R   11.77  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.07    50.99     1.48    31.47     5.13   -32.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.62R   35.89  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.83     9.59    -3.30    35.20     5.56   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.99R   12.35  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -6.95    11.95    -8.35    32.81     5.32   -28.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.79R   25.02  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Birmingham 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       24   51  +16       9.56    91.23     3.02    88.23     6.70    26.77    53.35    76.17    98.59    82.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.33    87.88     9.36    82.32     6.75    25.73    18.83    43.57    91.98    55.67P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.58    82.00     2.58    81.45     6.68    19.67    14.22    36.06    89.30    51.18P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   44  +18       5.90    78.88    10.07    79.23     6.78    25.90     9.68    26.99    83.90    40.34P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       4.01    71.15     5.26    73.25     6.70    14.73     1.74     6.74    52.85    17.36P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.29    62.69     7.61    66.70     6.65     9.85     0.20     0.96    18.91     4.59P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.76    40.30    -0.26    69.98     6.63    12.75     0.56     2.45    34.60    11.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       1.02    55.87     5.32    66.39     6.76     8.91     0.15     0.87    17.94     4.43P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -2.10    38.82    -4.35    69.35     6.86     8.42     0.49     2.24    30.48     9.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.19    49.30    -0.04    65.22     6.73     3.78     0.09     0.54    12.98     3.19P    0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.79    34.89    -4.32    69.17     6.97     9.11     0.48     2.15    29.90     9.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -0.98    44.98    -4.27    62.09     6.60    -3.93     0.02     0.12     5.55     1.27P    0.24R    0.00  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4       0.04    50.89     6.73    59.83     6.66     2.04     0.01     0.05     3.39     0.67P    0.65R    0.02  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.16    19.09    -1.19    65.87     7.04    12.53     0.16     0.88    17.95     5.50P    0.09R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.77    30.39     3.67    61.07     6.78     6.30     0.01     0.12     5.16     1.26P    0.47R    0.01  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.79    71.23     0.98    54.16     6.67   -19.68     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.06P    5.54R    0.37  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.83    20.69    -1.92    60.10     6.72     2.62     0.01     0.08     3.64     0.93P    0.70R    0.01  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -7.12    16.06    -6.86    58.35     6.81    -3.16     0.00     0.03     2.18     0.58P    1.36R    0.04  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.91    16.05    -5.48    52.44     6.56   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    7.81R    0.62  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.74    19.77    -1.64    49.74     6.73   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   15.87R    1.82  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -2.95    34.22   -10.55    45.52     6.38   -33.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.34R    6.88  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.66    47.91    -5.84    41.23     6.23   -38.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.85R   20.69  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.29    32.20    -0.69    38.08     6.35   -34.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.61R   37.59  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -6.95    14.54    -7.20    38.90     6.28   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.29R   31.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2014, Shrewsbury 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.39    94.47     7.62    89.75     6.83    30.31    36.40    64.27    98.98    73.43P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   24   51  +27      10.56    92.90    15.67    88.72     6.81    38.49    33.01    61.13    98.71    70.81P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   49  +20       2.46    62.16     1.89    87.35     6.56    34.10    24.24    51.63    98.08    67.57P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.50    92.75     5.71    80.31     6.75    15.64     4.18    13.41    84.91    27.57P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.63    46.56    -4.14    76.07     6.97    16.68     1.30     5.17    67.13    21.80P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       7.19    83.31     9.72    66.68     6.93     3.43     0.05     0.30    16.83     2.68P    0.33R    0.01  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.79    65.22     2.96    68.80     6.77     7.48     0.07     0.44    25.17     5.31P    0.10R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       5.83    78.59     3.72    63.92     6.91    -5.11     0.01     0.09     8.85     1.33P    1.19R    0.04  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.88    24.62    -2.17    73.10     7.07    20.24     0.60     2.70    51.81    16.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.55    68.17     1.44    66.54     7.00    16.65     0.05     0.31    18.67     4.87P    0.38R    0.01  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.47    26.71    -3.49    68.25     7.12    10.95     0.10     0.54    24.80     6.53P    0.25R    0.01  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.64    59.64    11.31    57.93     6.74     1.03     0.00     0.00     1.76     0.30P    6.30R    0.42  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.44    52.98    -0.51    56.95     6.85   -10.39     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.19P    9.70R    0.87  
Gillingham      25   29   -9       0.43    53.32     0.19    53.19     6.61   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   22.36R    2.67  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.81    46.41     2.19    54.77     6.67    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.08P   15.20R    1.52  
Carlisle        24   27  -13       0.00    51.01    -3.38    50.90     6.53   -23.37     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   34.79R    5.36  
Shrewsbury      25   26   -5      -4.66    26.43    -0.03    51.48     6.39    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   28.14R    3.97  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.53     9.14   -10.47    56.73     6.79    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.24P    9.59R    0.89  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -2.98    33.85     0.73    50.87     6.78   -12.80     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   33.13R    5.53  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.53    26.77    -9.31    51.41     6.74   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   31.67R    5.22  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.78    55.78    -8.88    44.53     6.31   -40.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   73.31R   29.32  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.29     5.93    -5.31    54.72     7.20    -1.39     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.18P   16.10R    2.05  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.67     3.99    -6.92    48.80     6.60    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P   43.10R    9.20  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.20    22.54    -8.54    43.78     6.74   -30.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   74.33R   32.91  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2014, Exeter 0 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.26    66.81     0.47    82.03     6.89    23.47    42.21    78.03    96.90    84.09P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       8.14    87.02     3.42    72.07     6.75     5.05     4.21    22.25    66.25    31.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.18    62.25     3.59    79.15     6.90    23.54    25.63    64.99    93.31    74.25P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.22    67.23     1.91    75.75     6.75    15.70    11.67    43.65    84.73    55.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.90    74.95     0.80    72.29     6.90     7.08     4.48    23.93    68.09    34.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.31    62.93     6.93    72.88     7.01    17.98     6.66    29.70    73.24    41.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       5.07    76.17     5.85    70.35     7.04     9.17     3.27    17.83    58.38    27.01P    0.06R    0.01  
Newport_County       23   37   +7       9.14    90.15    12.30    65.68     7.06     3.08     0.80     6.19    32.42    10.82P    0.37R    0.08  
Morecambe            26   36   -4       2.31    62.59    -1.36    61.43     6.29    -6.65     0.06     1.05    11.43     3.22P    1.33R    0.34  
Dag_&_Red            25   34   +1       1.16    56.93     2.87    61.74     6.56    -0.37     0.12     1.53    14.51     4.33P    1.25R    0.37  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.63    46.67    -3.17    63.12     6.82    -1.85     0.23     2.44    19.68     6.49P    0.99R    0.28  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.74    65.63    -0.09    60.37     6.49    -6.10     0.06     0.85     9.62     2.64P    2.01R    0.60  
Exeter               24   32   -2      -1.47    42.43    -2.87    62.87     6.82    -0.83     0.19     2.43    19.02     6.59P    1.08R    0.31  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   31   +0       1.97    61.49     5.43    57.72     6.66    -4.92     0.03     0.40     5.51     1.34P    5.38R    1.87  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.94    29.87    -4.17    63.17     6.87     2.18     0.28     2.83    21.05     8.06P    0.93R    0.27  
Mansfield            25   29   -7       0.96    56.20     2.04    53.37     6.54   -13.22     0.00     0.07     1.29     0.28P   17.68R    7.56  
York                 25   28   -2      -2.70    36.28     2.70    53.77     6.36    -6.00     0.00     0.06     1.34     0.32P   13.64R    5.46  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.21    13.61    -3.48    59.01     7.01     2.76     0.05     0.80     9.14     3.29P    4.17R    1.48  
Wycombe              23   27   -3      -3.65    30.76    -1.84    56.96     6.93    -5.16     0.01     0.37     5.09     1.49P    7.39R    2.82  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.43    10.29   -12.84    58.36     6.98    -5.82     0.03     0.51     6.99     2.43P    5.62R    2.16  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.22    32.94    -1.33    50.35     6.53   -14.88     0.00     0.02     0.45     0.10P   31.40R   16.22  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.70    20.82    -1.32    52.52     6.83    -7.59     0.00     0.05     1.26     0.32P   20.20R    9.48  
Torquay              25   23  -15      -6.99    16.81    -8.97    47.71     6.41   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P   48.55R   29.85  
Northampton          24   22  -12      -7.02    15.62    -6.86    49.27     6.61   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   37.92R   20.83  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2014, Lincoln_City 4 1 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.66    81.71    12.11    93.76     5.81    51.27    65.80    99.87    78.27P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.29    95.17    15.33    89.80     6.51    38.80    30.01    98.53    49.98P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    29   49   -2      12.32    94.21     4.05    71.72     5.58    -3.52     0.05    22.95     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.22    62.13     0.65    80.61     6.48    24.47     3.20    79.59    25.43P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          28   42   +9       2.58    62.81     8.09    65.76     6.01     6.94     0.01     6.41     0.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.29    33.05    -3.86    73.61     6.06    17.54     0.16    39.78    11.07P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.00    55.29    -6.87    76.02     6.44    12.22     0.59    53.39    12.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   41   +8       3.44    68.37     5.09    69.41     6.23     9.33     0.02    17.37     3.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         26   41   +2       7.18    83.50     4.72    65.84     6.04    -1.98     0.00     6.08     0.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.15    86.81     6.86    68.12     6.82     1.30     0.04    13.94     2.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.07    71.97     7.47    68.71     6.58     9.80     0.04    16.11     2.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.95    55.50     0.76    66.66     6.51     4.51     0.01     9.42     1.72P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   35   +4      -8.07    13.40    -8.02    67.94     6.14    12.53     0.02    12.34     3.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.27    72.45     7.43    65.79     6.86     4.51     0.01     8.43     1.38P    0.12R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.12    32.82     0.70    67.20     6.66    12.01     0.04    12.10     2.59P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   32   -6      -1.63    41.85    -0.76    57.27     5.98    -7.38     0.00     0.20     0.04P    1.49R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.78    21.20    -5.74    60.49     6.30    -0.80     0.00     1.25     0.27P    0.48R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.14    44.09    -0.80    53.37     6.37   -16.29     0.00     0.09     0.01P    7.23R    0.00  
Southport        25   26  -16      -1.63    41.67    -4.69    49.61     6.14   -24.62     0.00     0.02     0.00P   19.24R    0.01  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.17    19.91    -6.87    61.54     6.49    16.37     0.00     2.13     0.62P    0.49R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.16    50.33    -3.91    47.79     6.28   -28.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.07R    0.01  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.66    36.32    -0.21    43.74     6.12   -26.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.81R    0.04  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.50     7.97   -11.98    38.70     5.88   -36.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.91R    0.37  
Hyde_United      26    3  -51     -16.52     0.07   -19.56    17.60     5.27   -75.34     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.57  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10