Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 6 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       6.02    83.71     2.83    79.33     5.65    36.65    24.01    53.70    77.66    90.72    99.10     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.50    51.91     6.46    82.58     5.23    58.90    53.90    80.04    92.49    97.60    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.34    76.11     0.94    77.85     5.67    34.77    16.13    42.11    68.93    85.91    98.47     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       1.04    56.29     5.71    73.07     5.85    37.68     4.57    16.58    36.47    62.95    92.71     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.26    75.19     3.98    67.85     5.78    20.65     0.52     2.82     9.02    22.94    70.94     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.17    83.56    -5.53    65.59     5.86     4.73     0.20     1.23     4.20    12.14    52.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.10    24.93    -7.82    68.49     5.61    25.03     0.66     3.49    11.06    26.98    77.31     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.27    84.19     6.07    56.80     5.79     1.77     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.71     8.00     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.36    59.29     6.74    51.02     5.86     1.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.36     0.17R    0.01  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.14    65.31     8.03    42.23     5.69   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     7.49R    0.84  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.08    50.46     1.13    43.41     5.57   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.01R    0.55  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.02    51.17    -2.52    42.22     5.56   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     7.76R    0.94  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.02    26.36     2.40    44.98     5.71    -3.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.81R    0.27  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.80    22.01    -0.51    44.10     5.82    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     4.30R    0.48  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.21    42.75    -4.77    37.84     5.48   -27.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.71R    5.87  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.54    34.92   -10.21    38.09     5.51   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.99R    5.89  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.52    48.26    -2.52    35.70     5.38   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.07R   12.08  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.14    50.92     1.38    31.50     5.10   -32.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.60R   35.78  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.86     9.31    -3.31    35.20     5.58   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.92R   12.56  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -7.02    11.85    -8.46    32.90     5.36   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.17R   24.73  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Birmingham 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       24   51  +16       9.61    91.20     3.09    88.24     6.73    26.77    53.41    75.97    98.54    81.97P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.34    88.10     9.38    82.32     6.73    25.75    18.30    43.43    91.87    55.75P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.30    81.36     2.21    81.68     6.69    20.01    14.95    37.37    89.89    52.26P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   44  +18       5.96    79.49    10.15    79.16     6.77    25.77     9.56    26.26    83.68    39.79P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       4.07    71.41     5.35    73.20     6.72    14.63     1.67     6.57    52.32    16.76P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.20    62.34     7.45    66.82     6.73    10.09     0.20     1.01    19.72     4.68P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.77    40.34    -0.30    70.03     6.64    12.78     0.60     2.52    34.26    11.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       0.93    55.34     5.18    66.45     6.76     9.02     0.13     0.83    17.91     4.36P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -1.96    39.53    -4.13    69.19     6.90     8.17     0.42     2.05    29.82     9.56P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.18    49.08    -0.04    65.26     6.71     3.83     0.08     0.51    13.25     3.35P    0.06R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.88    34.56    -4.41    69.20     6.99     9.17     0.46     2.16    30.09     9.87P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -1.07    44.39    -4.39    62.16     6.64    -3.82     0.00     0.12     5.66     1.22P    0.26R    0.01  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4      -0.09    50.03     6.59    59.90     6.70     2.14     0.01     0.04     3.53     0.72P    0.61R    0.03  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.13    19.31    -1.14    65.84     7.07    12.48     0.17     0.94    17.85     5.51P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.72    30.49     3.70    61.02     6.80     6.24     0.01     0.13     5.23     1.35P    0.48R    0.02  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.81    71.34     1.03    54.22     6.64   -19.66     0.01     0.01     0.47     0.09P    5.44R    0.40  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.74    21.40    -1.81    60.05     6.75     2.53     0.01     0.06     3.63     0.89P    0.66R    0.02  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -7.07    16.43    -6.77    58.28     6.80    -3.28     0.00     0.02     1.98     0.52P    1.41R    0.05  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.86    16.26    -5.41    52.42     6.57   -10.22     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    7.82R    0.60  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.68    19.96    -1.53    49.61     6.76   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   16.14R    1.96  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -2.89    34.78   -10.49    45.43     6.43   -33.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.75R    7.10  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.67    47.41    -5.82    41.26     6.22   -38.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.00R   20.31  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.29    32.06    -0.62    38.05     6.35   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.34R   38.07  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.01    14.23    -7.29    38.97     6.29   -33.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.82R   31.44  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 3 January 2014, Gillingham 1 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.30    94.31     7.43    89.90     6.77    30.51    39.94    67.28    99.07    75.83P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   49  +20       2.32    61.60     1.66    87.48     6.53    34.34    26.50    54.89    98.21    69.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   23   48  +25       9.60    91.45    14.69    87.13     7.00    36.53    26.57    53.18    97.61    64.47P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.61    92.80     5.85    80.17     6.78    15.47     4.59    14.31    84.38    28.16P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.45    47.35    -3.86    75.98     6.95    16.50     1.36     5.51    66.43    21.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       7.21    83.49     9.76    66.67     6.92     3.41     0.05     0.33    17.02     2.76P    0.31R    0.01  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.63    64.34     2.65    68.98     6.79     7.75     0.11     0.49    26.40     5.68P    0.08R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       5.76    78.27     3.64    63.96     6.96    -5.05     0.02     0.10     9.22     1.48P    1.19R    0.03  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.85    24.77    -2.13    72.99     7.09    20.09     0.68     2.93    51.48    17.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.69    68.58     1.68    66.48     6.98    16.53     0.06     0.32    18.37     4.61P    0.42R    0.02  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.59    26.23    -3.62    68.28     7.16    11.01     0.11     0.64    25.28     6.96P    0.24R    0.01  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.68    59.94    11.34    57.89     6.78     0.98     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.32P    6.72R    0.50  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.42    52.88    -0.50    56.92     6.80   -10.47     0.00     0.01     1.18     0.18P   10.05R    0.83  
Gillingham      25   29   -9       0.42    53.40     0.13    53.19     6.54   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   22.16R    2.70  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.81    46.29     2.20    54.73     6.66    -9.26     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.07P   15.55R    1.64  
Carlisle        24   27  -13       0.14    52.06    -3.15    50.81     6.57   -23.58     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   35.87R    5.66  
Shrewsbury      24   26   -3      -4.05    28.74     0.92    52.91     6.58    -7.58     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   22.14R    2.77  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.53     9.04   -10.46    56.77     6.82    -5.49     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.27P    9.75R    0.88  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -3.11    33.26     0.51    51.08     6.80   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   32.29R    5.41  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.37    27.43    -9.05    51.25     6.67   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   32.91R    5.34  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.71    55.45    -9.00    44.56     6.29   -40.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   73.93R   29.36  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.33     5.91    -5.41    54.68     7.24    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.20P   16.99R    2.31  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.47     4.23    -6.68    48.64     6.57    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   44.60R    9.62  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.26    22.07    -8.60    43.84     6.65   -30.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.77R   32.91  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2014, Exeter 0 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.27    66.80     0.52    81.94     6.90    23.40    41.93    77.91    96.71    83.81P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       8.04    86.71     3.25    72.20     6.78     5.23     4.60    22.96    67.11    32.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.21    62.40     3.62    79.05     6.88    23.42    25.15    64.50    93.26    73.65P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.22    67.25     1.88    75.77     6.76    15.71    11.88    43.77    84.46    55.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.95    74.94     0.87    72.24     6.86     7.00     4.46    23.59    67.88    33.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.31    62.80     6.91    72.95     7.00    18.08     6.75    30.30    73.43    42.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       5.07    76.46     5.85    70.38     7.02     9.28     3.29    17.58    58.54    26.55P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County       23   37   +7       9.32    90.46    12.51    65.50     7.08     2.83     0.87     5.99    31.33    10.45P    0.42R    0.08  
Morecambe            26   36   -4       2.20    62.11    -1.56    61.53     6.31    -6.55     0.08     1.00    12.05     3.36P    1.19R    0.28  
Dag_&_Red            25   34   +1       1.14    56.70     2.84    61.76     6.52    -0.34     0.10     1.48    14.28     4.20P    1.22R    0.34  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.52    47.55    -3.04    63.06     6.79    -1.92     0.22     2.54    19.34     6.53P    1.03R    0.32  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.66    65.40    -0.19    60.41     6.53    -6.09     0.06     0.91     9.81     2.74P    2.17R    0.58  
Exeter               24   32   -2      -1.52    42.34    -2.94    62.93     6.76    -0.71     0.19     2.32    19.14     6.47P    1.06R    0.30  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   31   +0       1.93    61.41     5.45    57.76     6.63    -4.82     0.02     0.41     5.52     1.39P    5.23R    1.78  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.97    30.07    -4.21    63.19     6.89     2.23     0.27     2.88    21.09     8.24P    1.00R    0.31  
Mansfield            25   29   -7       0.87    55.89     1.87    53.44     6.50   -13.11     0.00     0.03     1.28     0.27P   16.92R    7.39  
York                 25   28   -2      -2.60    36.59     2.85    53.75     6.39    -6.01     0.00     0.05     1.35     0.32P   14.15R    5.69  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.23    13.54    -3.49    59.02     7.00     2.79     0.05     0.78     9.19     3.25P    4.09R    1.45  
Wycombe              23   27   -3      -3.71    30.48    -1.95    57.00     6.97    -5.18     0.03     0.40     5.33     1.48P    7.47R    2.85  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.35    10.40   -12.64    58.20     7.01    -6.06     0.03     0.52     6.79     2.47P    5.77R    2.38  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.21    32.95    -1.39    50.36     6.58   -14.86     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.11P   31.45R   16.15  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.67    20.92    -1.26    52.48     6.90    -7.66     0.00     0.04     1.31     0.29P   20.52R    9.73  
Torquay              25   23  -15      -7.02    16.60    -9.00    47.71     6.38   -20.83     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   48.50R   29.30  
Northampton          24   22  -12      -6.94    16.01    -6.74    49.23     6.63   -15.82     0.00     0.02     0.28     0.07P   37.76R   21.06  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2014, Barnet 1 0 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.52    81.31    11.94    93.76     5.83    51.24    65.48    99.86    78.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.38    95.33    15.46    89.78     6.52    38.70    30.05    98.32    49.83P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    28   49   +1      12.53    94.72     4.97    73.35     5.78     0.03     0.13    31.84     3.94P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.03    61.10     0.42    80.72     6.47    24.63     3.33    79.20    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          28   42   +9       2.58    63.14     8.12    65.74     6.02     6.96     0.00     6.06     1.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.46    32.19    -4.15    73.79     6.11    17.79     0.18    39.93    11.28P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.03    55.52    -6.80    76.05     6.43    12.27     0.66    51.90    12.82P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   41   +8       3.39    67.79     5.04    69.46     6.22     9.46     0.02    16.79     3.06P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         26   41   +2       7.01    83.21     4.54    65.88     5.99    -1.89     0.01     5.41     0.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.31    87.33     7.13    68.00     6.76     1.11     0.05    12.81     1.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.26    73.09     7.73    68.72     6.56     9.73     0.03    15.03     2.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.91    55.24     0.63    66.62     6.48     4.55     0.01     8.60     1.52P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   35   +4      -8.13    13.41    -8.03    67.93     6.19    12.52     0.01    11.79     3.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.30    72.39     7.44    65.67     6.92     4.28     0.01     7.98     1.31P    0.12R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.11    32.87     0.71    67.14     6.66    11.95     0.02    11.23     2.49P    0.05R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.80    21.31    -5.75    60.38     6.34    -0.93     0.00     1.20     0.26P    0.49R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.00    45.07    -0.63    53.36     6.40   -16.39     0.00     0.06     0.00P    7.20R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     26   29   -9      -1.94    39.94    -1.83    55.22     6.17   -10.98     0.00     0.10     0.01P    3.36R    0.00  
Southport        25   26  -16      -1.63    41.94    -4.67    49.63     6.17   -24.67     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.74R    0.00  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.32    19.41    -7.05    61.61     6.46    16.53     0.00     1.89     0.55P    0.44R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18       0.05    51.69    -3.54    47.67     6.26   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.20R    0.02  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.60    36.42    -0.13    43.73     6.14   -26.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.36R    0.05  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.51     7.91   -12.08    38.80     5.89   -36.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.96R    0.39  
Hyde_United      26    3  -51     -16.45     0.07   -19.47    17.65     5.30   -75.28     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.53  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10