Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 5 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       5.97    83.67     2.76    79.42     5.63    36.80    24.08    54.58    77.69    90.92    99.23     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.51    51.83     6.48    82.57     5.27    58.82    53.75    79.82    92.36    97.56    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.43    76.66     1.08    77.82     5.63    34.77    15.96    41.67    68.97    86.20    98.45     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       1.07    56.45     5.68    73.10     5.86    37.75     4.75    16.47    36.43    62.76    92.65     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.17    74.52     3.87    67.88     5.81    20.73     0.61     2.90     9.10    22.71    71.42     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.19    83.94    -5.51    65.57     5.84     4.71     0.20     1.16     4.21    11.96    51.59     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.19    24.52    -7.95    68.55     5.57    25.12     0.64     3.37    11.09    27.11    77.44     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.29    84.34     6.15    56.74     5.79     1.63     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.71     7.75     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.28    58.99     6.58    51.17     5.88     1.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.42     0.22R    0.01  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.12    65.11     8.00    42.26     5.71   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     7.32R    0.91  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.04    50.64     1.17    43.37     5.53   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.80R    0.47  
Stoke            20   22  -11      -0.02    51.21    -2.60    42.33     5.55   -17.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.36R    0.89  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.14    25.49     2.23    45.11     5.71    -3.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.67R    0.26  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.69    22.29    -0.33    43.96     5.78    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     4.40R    0.52  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.13    43.48    -4.62    37.76     5.49   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.90R    5.89  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.44    35.38   -10.05    37.98     5.50   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.39R    6.17  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.47    48.33    -2.52    35.63     5.38   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.37R   12.21  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.16    50.58     1.38    31.49     5.13   -32.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.41R   35.35  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.93     9.17    -3.41    35.24     5.57   -18.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.46R   12.26  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -6.96    12.11    -8.39    32.81     5.32   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.70R   25.05  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Birmingham 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       24   51  +16       9.59    91.12     3.09    88.24     6.76    26.76    52.90    75.60    98.46    81.64P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.27    87.77     9.25    82.45     6.70    25.90    18.91    44.11    92.40    56.27P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.39    81.74     2.33    81.59     6.69    19.91    14.61    36.47    89.92    51.87P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   44  +18       5.87    78.81    10.05    79.33     6.76    26.03     9.93    26.99    84.37    40.86P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       4.02    71.12     5.26    73.18     6.62    14.64     1.53     6.26    52.70    16.80P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.40    63.29     7.76    66.62     6.68     9.77     0.18     0.92    18.81     4.57P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.89    39.47    -0.46    70.10     6.65    12.90     0.55     2.57    34.97    11.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       0.96    55.69     5.21    66.38     6.77     8.94     0.16     0.91    17.96     4.53P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -1.85    40.12    -3.97    69.11     6.91     8.03     0.44     2.09    29.24     9.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.15    49.51    -0.01    65.20     6.69     3.80     0.09     0.49    12.68     3.04P    0.09R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.86    34.76    -4.40    69.26     7.00     9.24     0.49     2.28    30.49    10.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -0.90    45.40    -4.16    62.08     6.62    -3.97     0.02     0.10     5.45     1.22P    0.28R    0.01  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4      -0.09    50.24     6.54    59.92     6.70     2.21     0.01     0.07     3.55     0.77P    0.67R    0.03  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.12    19.01    -1.16    65.81     7.05    12.46     0.14     0.92    17.68     5.33P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.71    30.51     3.74    60.96     6.77     6.12     0.02     0.12     4.94     1.14P    0.54R    0.02  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.90    71.67     1.24    54.06     6.70   -19.91     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.07P    5.97R    0.36  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.69    21.30    -1.75    60.05     6.74     2.52     0.01     0.05     3.62     0.86P    0.66R    0.02  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -6.98    16.78    -6.66    58.21     6.82    -3.35     0.01     0.04     2.04     0.49P    1.44R    0.06  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.95    16.26    -5.53    52.43     6.58   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    7.85R    0.62  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.78    19.75    -1.68    49.66     6.80   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   16.59R    2.03  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -2.98    34.05   -10.67    45.62     6.41   -33.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.76R    6.94  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.85    46.25    -6.10    41.40     6.26   -37.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.50R   20.17  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.33    31.69    -0.70    38.15     6.35   -34.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.20R   37.07  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -6.96    14.68    -7.21    38.85     6.33   -33.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.23R   32.68  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 3 January 2014, Gillingham 1 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.51    94.63     7.77    89.74     6.74    30.29    39.81    66.78    99.02    75.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   49  +20       2.32    61.70     1.67    87.42     6.52    34.26    26.71    55.33    98.20    70.16P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   23   48  +25       9.70    91.57    14.82    86.99     7.01    36.34    26.37    52.48    97.48    63.65P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.55    92.67     5.77    80.23     6.77    15.52     4.47    14.51    84.60    28.38P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.62    46.67    -4.08    76.09     6.96    16.71     1.60     6.06    67.12    22.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       6.98    82.62     9.42    66.88     6.96     3.70     0.08     0.33    17.95     2.94P    0.33R    0.00  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.77    65.07     2.87    68.82     6.80     7.50     0.11     0.58    25.27     5.68P    0.09R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       5.74    78.22     3.59    63.95     6.91    -5.06     0.02     0.08     8.84     1.44P    1.13R    0.04  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.81    24.65    -2.09    72.99     7.05    20.07     0.67     2.87    51.41    17.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.64    68.76     1.55    66.46     7.01    16.56     0.05     0.39    18.49     4.76P    0.42R    0.02  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.66    25.64    -3.73    68.38     7.05    11.15     0.12     0.57    25.37     6.92P    0.20R    0.00  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.63    59.77    11.34    57.93     6.81     1.02     0.00     0.01     1.98     0.34P    6.73R    0.48  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.43    53.28    -0.48    56.87     6.86   -10.55     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.22P   10.26R    0.87  
Gillingham      25   29   -9       0.46    53.63     0.26    53.04     6.52   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P   23.20R    2.75  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.75    46.44     2.26    54.71     6.65    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.08P   15.62R    1.55  
Carlisle        24   27  -13       0.01    51.27    -3.41    50.87     6.53   -23.40     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   35.39R    5.55  
Shrewsbury      24   26   -3      -4.04    28.84     0.95    52.85     6.60    -7.61     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   22.10R    2.88  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.47     9.25   -10.40    56.72     6.76    -5.57     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.23P    9.91R    0.86  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -3.05    33.74     0.55    51.04     6.82   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   32.81R    5.64  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.48    26.93    -9.20    51.33     6.74   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   32.70R    5.48  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.76    55.80    -8.94    44.67     6.30   -40.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    73.51R   28.90  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.20     6.07    -5.21    54.73     7.20    -1.41     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.19P   16.46R    2.40  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.45     4.11    -6.63    48.73     6.58    -9.76     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   44.26R    9.49  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.26    22.12    -8.66    43.83     6.65   -30.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.84R   33.10  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2014, Exeter 0 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.36    67.44     0.62    81.94     6.91    23.35    41.85    77.91    96.84    84.05P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       8.03    86.61     3.30    72.10     6.79     5.10     4.44    22.51    66.52    31.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.27    62.54     3.65    79.06     6.94    23.41    25.22    64.26    93.23    73.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.27    67.69     1.95    75.77     6.73    15.74    11.55    43.83    84.82    55.69P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.93    75.04     0.81    72.27     6.93     7.07     4.80    23.95    67.50    34.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.36    63.21     6.99    72.85     6.95    17.99     6.69    29.46    73.25    41.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       4.91    75.47     5.64    70.51     7.06     9.44     3.51    18.48    59.43    27.89P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County       23   37   +7       9.25    90.28    12.46    65.58     7.07     2.93     0.85     6.24    31.58    10.61P    0.42R    0.12  
Morecambe            26   36   -4       2.40    63.18    -1.32    61.37     6.32    -6.75     0.07     1.12    11.36     3.21P    1.26R    0.31  
Dag_&_Red            25   34   +1       1.17    56.81     2.88    61.71     6.53    -0.35     0.09     1.49    14.32     4.25P    1.24R    0.33  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.69    46.68    -3.29    63.20     6.78    -1.76     0.26     2.53    19.89     6.71P    0.93R    0.27  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.49    64.41    -0.43    60.54     6.54    -5.93     0.06     0.93    10.11     2.74P    2.04R    0.59  
Exeter               24   32   -2      -1.44    42.39    -2.83    62.88     6.86    -0.82     0.20     2.47    19.42     6.56P    1.07R    0.30  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   31   +0       1.95    61.71     5.46    57.76     6.61    -4.81     0.03     0.34     5.50     1.24P    5.30R    1.80  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.74    30.72    -3.92    63.04     6.84     2.00     0.26     2.66    20.07     7.65P    1.00R    0.30  
Mansfield            25   29   -7       0.73    55.06     1.71    53.55     6.54   -12.94     0.01     0.05     1.32     0.31P   16.98R    7.23  
York                 25   28   -2      -2.48    37.09     2.98    53.62     6.40    -6.24     0.00     0.05     1.37     0.34P   14.48R    5.97  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.14    13.58    -3.37    58.94     6.99     2.68     0.06     0.76     8.99     3.14P    4.24R    1.59  
Wycombe              23   27   -3      -3.82    29.70    -2.09    57.09     6.96    -5.02     0.03     0.40     5.38     1.55P    7.24R    2.81  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.39    10.32   -12.73    58.29     6.98    -5.92     0.03     0.54     7.01     2.42P    5.66R    2.12  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.24    32.78    -1.37    50.41     6.56   -14.77     0.00     0.02     0.48     0.11P   30.95R   15.91  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.59    21.25    -1.15    52.41     6.81    -7.79     0.00     0.03     1.21     0.26P   20.59R    9.78  
Torquay              25   23  -15      -7.01    16.59    -9.00    47.68     6.37   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   48.82R   29.73  
Northampton          24   22  -12      -7.07    15.63    -6.94    49.30     6.63   -15.76     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.08P   37.70R   20.83  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2014, Barnet 1 0 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            27   57  +34       6.41    80.50    11.79    93.78     5.81    51.40    66.31    99.87    78.60P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.44    95.35    15.51    89.70     6.52    38.63    29.45    98.23    49.24P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    28   49   +1      12.52    94.55     4.99    73.33     5.82     0.02     0.15    31.82     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.06    61.45     0.51    80.68     6.44    24.61     3.15    79.28    25.40P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          28   42   +9       2.64    63.26     8.24    65.73     6.03     6.87     0.00     6.05     0.94P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           27   42   +9      -3.42    32.61    -4.01    73.77     6.05    17.74     0.14    39.57    11.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.17    56.30    -6.58    75.92     6.44    12.08     0.59    51.23    12.50P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   41   +8       3.32    67.54     4.94    69.53     6.27     9.49     0.02    17.28     3.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         26   41   +2       7.08    83.34     4.53    65.87     5.98    -1.89     0.01     5.49     0.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       7.97    86.32     6.54    68.37     6.87     1.71     0.06    13.97     2.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.19    72.78     7.69    68.68     6.59     9.70     0.04    15.12     2.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.94    55.60     0.72    66.64     6.50     4.57     0.02     8.81     1.54P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   35   +4      -7.98    14.04    -7.84    67.88     6.15    12.43     0.02    11.60     3.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.36    72.75     7.55    65.57     6.87     4.15     0.01     7.59     1.21P    0.13R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.02    33.50     0.88    67.05     6.64    11.79     0.01    10.85     2.44P    0.04R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.76    21.52    -5.68    60.33     6.34    -1.05     0.00     1.15     0.26P    0.50R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.02    44.87    -0.66    53.38     6.41   -16.29     0.00     0.09     0.01P    7.46R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     26   29   -9      -2.03    39.30    -1.90    55.23     6.21   -11.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.57R    0.00  
Southport        25   26  -16      -1.81    40.76    -4.95    49.70     6.13   -24.53     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.47R    0.01  
Aldershot        25   25   +4      -6.11    20.25    -6.78    61.55     6.48    16.37     0.00     1.90     0.62P    0.45R    0.00  
Tamworth         24   24  -18      -0.09    50.68    -3.79    47.79     6.27   -28.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.71R    0.02  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.60    36.90    -0.09    43.77     6.17   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.28R    0.06  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.52     8.07   -12.11    38.82     5.87   -36.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.29R    0.36  
Hyde_United      26    3  -51     -16.46     0.06   -19.49    17.61     5.30   -75.37     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.55  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10