Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 3 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       6.00    83.86     2.82    79.37     5.65    36.71    23.86    54.03    77.70    90.77    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.60    52.50     6.62    82.57     5.25    58.85    53.57    79.55    92.35    97.63    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.34    75.84     0.91    77.91     5.62    34.90    16.37    42.38    69.46    86.28    98.54     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       1.06    56.55     5.68    73.10     5.87    37.74     4.75    16.53    36.33    62.93    92.72     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.28    75.32     4.01    67.75     5.80    20.55     0.59     2.82     8.67    22.18    70.43     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.21    83.83    -5.44    65.57     5.86     4.68     0.21     1.25     4.21    11.92    51.57     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.22    24.44    -8.02    68.60     5.60    25.29     0.66     3.44    11.15    27.60    78.06     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.19    83.82     5.97    56.86     5.76     1.80     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.64     8.13     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.26    58.75     6.59    51.11     5.87     1.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.38     0.19R    0.01  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.12    65.25     8.02    42.21     5.69   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     7.39R    0.87  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.17    49.93     1.00    43.49     5.54   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.71R    0.46  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.00    51.18    -2.56    42.21     5.57   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.85R    1.02  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.11    25.73     2.25    45.03     5.70    -3.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.81R    0.26  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.73    22.05    -0.42    44.03     5.83    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     4.23R    0.49  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.12    43.56    -4.64    37.82     5.45   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.39R    5.73  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.39    35.77    -9.99    37.97     5.50   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.62R    6.24  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.50    48.36    -2.50    35.67     5.41   -29.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.23R   12.07  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.09    51.12     1.43    31.46     5.12   -32.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.73R   36.02  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.94     9.27    -3.39    35.23     5.54   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.52R   11.99  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -6.95    11.96    -8.34    32.83     5.32   -28.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.33R   24.83  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Birmingham 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       24   51  +16       9.70    91.50     3.24    88.19     6.73    26.66    53.19    75.68    98.41    81.92P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.17    87.44     9.16    82.48     6.68    25.97    18.76    44.23    92.35    56.45P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.44    81.91     2.39    81.51     6.67    19.81    14.35    36.32    89.58    51.51P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   44  +18       5.79    78.65     9.88    79.33     6.79    26.06     9.87    27.09    84.24    40.60P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       3.98    70.85     5.24    73.22     6.70    14.69     1.75     6.50    53.10    16.96P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.35    63.19     7.70    66.68     6.78     9.86     0.21     1.01    19.46     4.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.73    40.33    -0.25    69.98     6.63    12.74     0.47     2.35    34.37    11.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       0.85    55.08     5.05    66.48     6.73     9.03     0.15     0.85    18.20     4.40P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -1.89    39.86    -4.02    69.21     6.91     8.18     0.45     2.09    29.89     9.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.13    49.75    -0.00    65.21     6.74     3.79     0.08     0.49    12.87     3.26P    0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.67    35.51    -4.13    69.05     6.97     8.97     0.48     2.10    29.20     9.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -0.99    45.00    -4.26    62.08     6.65    -3.96     0.01     0.14     5.50     1.20P    0.28R    0.00  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4      -0.01    50.53     6.67    59.91     6.68     2.14     0.01     0.07     3.43     0.69P    0.66R    0.02  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.08    19.46    -1.10    65.77     7.03    12.38     0.18     0.86    17.48     5.40P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.77    30.37     3.65    61.01     6.78     6.21     0.01     0.11     5.20     1.15P    0.46R    0.02  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.90    71.74     1.21    54.07     6.70   -19.87     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P    5.85R    0.42  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.78    21.23    -1.86    60.11     6.80     2.64     0.01     0.08     3.94     1.02P    0.70R    0.02  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -7.00    16.53    -6.72    58.29     6.81    -3.25     0.00     0.03     2.06     0.52P    1.51R    0.08  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -7.06    15.73    -5.70    52.53     6.59   -10.04     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    7.79R    0.63  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.64    20.52    -1.46    49.56     6.75   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   16.70R    1.91  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -3.03    33.68   -10.73    45.61     6.44   -33.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    39.06R    6.94  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.75    47.26    -6.01    41.37     6.26   -38.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.17R   20.26  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.25    32.02    -0.56    38.03     6.36   -34.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.59R   38.61  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.08    14.14    -7.39    39.02     6.26   -33.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.96R   31.10  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 3 January 2014, Gillingham 1 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.44    94.58     7.62    89.75     6.78    30.32    39.23    66.48    98.98    75.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   49  +20       2.32    61.71     1.63    87.43     6.51    34.30    26.42    54.80    98.19    69.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   23   48  +25       9.57    91.25    14.68    87.19     7.08    36.60    27.35    53.63    97.45    64.59P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.53    92.78     5.69    80.20     6.77    15.48     4.59    14.46    84.34    28.34P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.61    46.61    -4.06    76.02     7.00    16.56     1.41     5.69    66.68    21.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       7.00    82.66     9.44    66.85     6.95     3.65     0.07     0.34    17.64     3.04P    0.33R    0.01  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.88    65.80     3.08    68.83     6.76     7.49     0.09     0.55    25.53     5.56P    0.11R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       5.74    78.31     3.56    63.99     6.92    -4.97     0.02     0.10     8.91     1.44P    1.14R    0.02  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.89    24.33    -2.19    73.04     7.06    20.17     0.65     2.95    51.94    17.72P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.64    68.68     1.64    66.47     7.00    16.49     0.05     0.32    18.37     4.66P    0.40R    0.03  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.75    25.35    -3.84    68.46     7.13    11.25     0.12     0.65    25.73     6.97P    0.25R    0.02  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.66    59.58    11.34    57.91     6.79     0.95     0.00     0.01     1.83     0.31P    6.57R    0.49  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.38    52.99    -0.60    57.00     6.83   -10.33     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.19P    9.73R    0.77  
Gillingham      25   29   -9       0.50    53.56     0.27    53.08     6.55   -16.64     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   22.93R    2.72  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.71    46.71     2.29    54.74     6.68    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.08P   15.64R    1.62  
Carlisle        24   27  -13      -0.08    50.66    -3.48    51.03     6.56   -23.24     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   34.38R    5.31  
Shrewsbury      24   26   -3      -4.06    28.64     0.90    52.93     6.61    -7.51     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   22.01R    2.75  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.43     9.35   -10.38    56.72     6.81    -5.54     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.22P    9.90R    0.86  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -3.00    33.55     0.62    50.92     6.73   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   32.91R    5.60  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.39    27.35    -9.06    51.24     6.73   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   33.38R    5.38  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.84    56.37    -8.75    44.54     6.31   -40.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    73.70R   29.54  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.20     6.16    -5.20    54.62     7.24    -1.57     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.20P   16.81R    2.42  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.45     4.25    -6.63    48.67     6.59    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   44.44R    9.70  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.19    22.56    -8.54    43.75     6.66   -30.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   75.35R   32.76  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Dag_&_Red 1 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.39    67.44     0.64    82.05     6.84    23.54    41.91    77.51    96.50    83.54P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       8.14    87.02     3.41    72.01     6.73     4.93     4.22    20.87    63.66    29.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.17    61.89     3.52    79.15     6.92    23.54    25.45    63.84    92.39    72.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.24    67.53     1.90    75.81     6.75    15.79    11.48    42.52    83.17    54.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.88    74.79     0.74    72.19     6.90     6.95     4.40    22.81    64.89    32.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.30    62.75     6.89    72.89     6.96    17.99     6.33    28.75    71.02    40.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       4.99    76.00     5.74    70.38     6.97     9.22     3.03    16.96    56.03    25.78P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County       22   37   +8      10.42    93.42    13.13    67.60     7.27     4.94     1.57     9.87    39.77    15.02P    0.16R    0.03  
Morecambe            25   35   -4       2.48    63.90    -1.65    61.80     6.50    -6.66     0.09     1.27    12.00     3.51P    0.95R    0.24  
Dag_&_Red            24   34   +3       1.97    61.15     4.00    63.42     6.80     2.17     0.25     2.76    19.75     6.55P    0.57R    0.14  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.69    46.75    -3.27    63.09     6.72    -1.91     0.19     2.19    17.48     6.01P    0.69R    0.20  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.62    65.26    -0.28    60.41     6.52    -6.07     0.05     0.79     8.74     2.44P    1.66R    0.46  
Exeter               23   32   -1      -0.05    50.09    -1.77    65.07     7.02     1.36     0.59     4.73    27.05    10.13P    0.44R    0.11  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.81    30.45    -3.98    63.09     6.87     2.07     0.26     2.60    18.80     7.14P    0.74R    0.19  
AFC_Wimbledon        23   28   -3       0.96    56.44     3.39    54.93     6.76    -9.57     0.01     0.14     2.16     0.53P   10.27R    4.04  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.29    13.34    -3.56    59.00     6.97     2.70     0.03     0.70     8.08     2.83P    3.21R    1.13  
Wycombe              22   27   +0      -2.98    33.56     0.14    59.54     7.18    -0.43     0.10     1.16     9.73     3.29P    3.06R    1.05  
Mansfield            24   26   -8      -0.71    46.93     1.12    51.04     6.69   -15.35     0.00     0.02     0.51     0.14P   24.43R   11.49  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.43    10.18   -12.80    58.33     6.89    -5.89     0.04     0.42     5.80     2.10P    4.36R    1.64  
York                 24   25   -4      -3.60    30.91     1.69    51.66     6.56    -8.64     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.16P   19.63R    8.66  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.25    32.81    -1.39    50.36     6.55   -14.84     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.09P   26.92R   13.24  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.49    21.50    -1.01    52.35     6.87    -7.89     0.00     0.05     1.15     0.33P   17.72R    8.02  
Torquay              24   22  -15      -6.64    17.51    -8.90    48.14     6.59   -20.76     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   40.77R   22.77  
Northampton          23   19  -13      -8.56    10.10    -7.70    47.34     6.80   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   44.36R   26.56  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            26   56  +34       7.01    83.59    12.04    94.55     6.03    51.95    69.09    99.85    80.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.45    95.31    15.59    89.71     6.54    38.60    27.01    98.22    47.92P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    27   49   +2      13.17    95.74     4.81    74.14     6.00    -0.08     0.20    36.43     4.51P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.12    61.41     0.57    80.68     6.51    24.50     2.81    78.04    25.22P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          27   42  +11       3.17    65.93     8.69    67.80     6.31    10.07     0.02    11.47     1.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       0.89    54.64    -6.95    76.07     6.45    12.31     0.52    51.39    13.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         25   41   +3       8.10    86.88     5.05    67.17     6.27    -1.03     0.01     8.50     1.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.03    86.40     6.65    68.43     6.86     1.81     0.08    14.00     2.15P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           26   39   +8      -4.44    27.48    -4.08    72.97     6.32    18.08     0.14    34.82    10.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.08    71.96     7.50    68.76     6.63     9.80     0.03    15.13     2.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.92    55.34     0.71    66.73     6.52     4.66     0.02     8.77     1.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        25   38   +4       3.48    68.46     3.99    68.35     6.40     6.41     0.01    12.69     2.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.40    73.30     7.62    65.53     6.91     4.06     0.01     7.45     1.13P    0.10R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.02    33.43     0.88    67.07     6.70    11.80     0.02    10.64     2.31P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          25   32   +3      -9.17    10.30    -8.03    66.31     6.42    11.46     0.01     7.90     2.28P    0.03R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.69    21.84    -5.59    60.38     6.36    -0.95     0.00     1.14     0.26P    0.35R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.01    45.15    -0.59    53.51     6.39   -16.01     0.00     0.07     0.01P    5.54R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     25   28   -9      -1.88    39.97    -2.10    55.15     6.42   -11.72     0.00     0.13     0.02P    3.12R    0.00  
Aldershot        24   25   +5      -5.11    24.30    -6.30    62.62     6.76    16.89     0.00     3.36     1.04P    0.30R    0.00  
Southport        24   23  -17      -2.93    34.22    -4.99    47.91     6.36   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.24R    0.03  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.64    36.29    -0.24    43.80     6.18   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.90R    0.08  
Tamworth         23   21  -20      -1.24    43.66    -5.01    45.58     6.45   -31.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.57R    0.10  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.40     8.47   -11.89    38.76     5.88   -36.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.74R    0.63  
Hyde_United      25    3  -47     -16.39     0.07   -18.32    18.45     5.47   -72.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   99.16  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10