Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 2 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       5.95    83.50     2.67    79.37     5.65    36.75    24.10    54.20    77.71    90.64    99.09     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.55    52.09     6.55    82.54     5.26    58.83    53.44    79.49    92.39    97.58    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.40    76.29     1.03    77.82     5.67    34.73    16.42    41.92    68.72    85.94    98.39     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       1.10    56.67     5.78    73.07     5.85    37.69     4.61    16.59    36.08    62.87    92.72     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.23    74.92     3.95    67.80     5.81    20.63     0.55     2.92     9.05    22.37    70.67     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.23    83.70    -5.41    65.56     5.87     4.68     0.22     1.23     4.29    12.02    51.11     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.28    24.11    -8.13    68.66     5.58    25.35     0.65     3.63    11.62    27.81    78.27     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.22    83.78     6.03    56.82     5.79     1.78     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.71     8.17     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.27    58.91     6.62    51.12     5.89     1.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.47     0.22R    0.01  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.16    65.29     8.06    42.18     5.68   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     7.33R    0.86  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.13    49.94     1.04    43.49     5.55   -13.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.76R    0.47  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.02    51.10    -2.55    42.18     5.56   -17.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.88R    0.97  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.11    25.96     2.24    45.11     5.70    -3.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     2.59R    0.27  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.66    22.80    -0.30    44.05     5.79    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.23R    0.47  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.20    43.20    -4.74    37.83     5.50   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.64R    5.77  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.46    35.10   -10.02    38.02     5.48   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.14R    5.95  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.42    48.80    -2.37    35.60     5.38   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.60R   12.43  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.07    51.17     1.46    31.46     5.14   -32.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.44R   36.05  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.90     9.54    -3.38    35.19     5.55   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.36R   12.36  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -7.08    11.73    -8.54    32.93     5.36   -28.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.82R   24.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Birmingham 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       24   51  +16       9.67    91.50     3.19    88.16     6.71    26.67    52.59    75.73    98.53    81.81P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.23    87.75     9.20    82.45     6.68    25.92    19.07    44.15    92.28    56.24P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.39    81.67     2.33    81.60     6.68    19.89    14.71    36.64    89.96    52.09P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   44  +18       5.90    79.10    10.11    79.23     6.76    25.86     9.75    26.75    84.05    40.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       3.94    70.99     5.18    73.24     6.72    14.76     1.73     6.49    53.00    16.97P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.28    62.79     7.64    66.71     6.71     9.90     0.18     0.91    19.07     4.55P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.78    40.02    -0.33    70.01     6.61    12.77     0.57     2.46    34.43    10.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       0.92    55.34     5.20    66.43     6.73     8.95     0.17     0.89    18.03     4.46P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -1.78    40.68    -3.91    69.18     6.90     8.10     0.45     2.12    29.51     9.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.12    49.65     0.06    65.16     6.71     3.73     0.08     0.48    12.84     3.19P    0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.65    35.74    -4.08    69.00     6.98     8.88     0.47     2.07    29.50     9.68P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -1.08    44.52    -4.39    62.15     6.65    -3.86     0.02     0.13     5.64     1.32P    0.25R    0.00  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4       0.01    50.73     6.73    59.85     6.72     2.06     0.01     0.04     3.49     0.73P    0.73R    0.02  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.24    18.81    -1.34    65.89     7.04    12.58     0.20     0.96    17.92     5.51P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.77    30.36     3.67    60.99     6.74     6.18     0.01     0.09     5.17     1.25P    0.49R    0.01  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.89    71.44     1.15    54.15     6.65   -19.73     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.05P    5.68R    0.33  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.80    20.69    -1.87    60.15     6.74     2.67     0.00     0.06     3.81     0.96P    0.66R    0.02  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -6.95    16.77    -6.64    58.20     6.81    -3.40     0.00     0.03     2.05     0.54P    1.58R    0.07  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.96    16.31    -5.55    52.42     6.55   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    7.86R    0.64  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.73    20.05    -1.60    49.71     6.77   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   16.35R    1.92  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -3.09    33.26   -10.82    45.64     6.43   -33.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.72R    7.04  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.68    47.43    -5.90    41.24     6.20   -38.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.27R   20.79  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.32    31.65    -0.70    38.18     6.34   -34.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.22R   37.38  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.05    14.48    -7.32    38.96     6.35   -33.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.95R   31.78  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Crewe 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.39    94.61     7.62    89.78     6.74    30.33    34.06    63.48    99.15    72.93P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   24   49  +21       3.65    69.00     2.51    89.96     6.69    37.10    37.39    66.59    99.14    78.02P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   23   48  +25       9.58    91.30    14.69    87.05     7.03    36.43    22.82    48.36    97.51    60.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.64    92.93     5.86    80.15     6.80    15.41     3.78    12.43    83.92    26.87P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.73    45.69    -4.28    76.10     6.97    16.76     1.20     4.95    67.25    21.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       7.21    83.32     9.75    66.69     6.94     3.38     0.05     0.27    16.94     2.79P    0.27R    0.00  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.72    65.05     2.83    68.88     6.79     7.62     0.07     0.50    25.64     5.61P    0.10R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       5.65    77.87     3.45    64.10     6.96    -4.85     0.01     0.09     9.29     1.43P    1.07R    0.04  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.92    24.26    -2.25    73.08     7.06    20.22     0.51     2.49    51.83    16.97P    0.03R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.75    69.21     1.76    66.41     6.97    16.43     0.03     0.30    17.94     4.54P    0.41R    0.01  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.63    25.59    -3.66    68.36     7.11    11.12     0.09     0.53    25.48     6.92P    0.22R    0.01  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.68    59.79    11.38    57.86     6.78     0.89     0.00     0.00     1.83     0.29P    6.32R    0.43  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.40    53.09    -0.53    57.01     6.88   -10.32     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.19P    9.19R    0.82  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.83    46.20     2.10    54.83     6.66    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.07P   14.63R    1.43  
Carlisle        24   27  -13       0.12    51.51    -3.18    50.85     6.53   -23.51     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   34.13R    5.42  
Shrewsbury      24   26   -3      -4.08    28.48     0.84    52.97     6.58    -7.46     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   20.72R    2.55  
Gillingham      24   26  -10      -1.07    45.19    -0.46    50.36     6.65   -19.50     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P   36.12R    6.38  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.50     9.10   -10.44    56.74     6.78    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.21P    9.18R    0.82  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -2.92    34.26     0.82    50.89     6.81   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   31.77R    5.59  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.53    26.60    -9.23    51.35     6.71   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   30.93R    5.13  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.74    55.53    -8.90    44.59     6.30   -40.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    72.36R   28.11  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.24     6.19    -5.28    54.78     7.25    -1.36     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.24P   15.83R    2.17  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.57     4.17    -6.81    48.66     6.57    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   43.08R    9.06  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.22    22.09    -8.59    43.76     6.72   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.65R   32.02  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Dag_&_Red 1 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.30    67.05     0.54    82.02     6.91    23.50    42.13    77.33    96.34    83.28P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       8.04    86.70     3.29    72.05     6.74     5.01     4.20    21.40    63.74    30.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.23    62.46     3.67    78.98     6.87    23.32    24.53    62.86    92.23    72.30P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.20    67.31     1.86    75.78     6.73    15.75    11.49    42.45    83.01    54.13P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.81    74.57     0.61    72.31     6.88     7.08     4.62    23.21    65.50    33.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.27    62.63     6.86    72.90     6.97    18.02     6.57    29.02    71.30    40.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       4.99    75.83     5.78    70.29     7.00     9.09     3.23    16.97    55.53    25.69P    0.02R    0.01  
Newport_County       22   37   +8      10.52    93.72    13.29    67.51     7.24     4.79     1.57     9.65    39.41    14.70P    0.18R    0.04  
Morecambe            25   35   -4       2.66    64.70    -1.38    61.60     6.45    -6.92     0.08     1.12    11.17     3.18P    1.07R    0.25  
Dag_&_Red            24   34   +3       1.87    60.80     3.92    63.49     6.74     2.24     0.26     2.65    19.93     6.57P    0.50R    0.11  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.51    47.64    -3.01    62.98     6.74    -2.05     0.25     2.29    16.85     5.84P    0.73R    0.18  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.50    64.64    -0.42    60.58     6.52    -5.86     0.05     0.86     9.10     2.63P    1.45R    0.39  
Exeter               23   32   -1      -0.24    49.22    -2.05    65.26     7.03     1.64     0.59     5.07    27.91    10.61P    0.44R    0.09  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.85    30.51    -4.04    63.12     6.85     2.09     0.24     2.59    18.82     7.24P    0.76R    0.20  
AFC_Wimbledon        23   28   -3       0.94    56.24     3.34    55.09     6.73    -9.33     0.02     0.14     2.23     0.51P    9.50R    3.68  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.27    13.03    -3.51    59.02     6.99     2.77     0.06     0.79     8.11     2.91P    3.24R    1.10  
Wycombe              22   27   +0      -3.07    33.41     0.01    59.67     7.20    -0.28     0.08     1.12    10.11     3.44P    3.03R    1.08  
Mansfield            24   26   -8      -0.71    47.20     1.12    51.02     6.68   -15.38     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.09P   24.55R   11.72  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.30    10.79   -12.64    58.25     6.95    -5.97     0.03     0.42     6.11     2.09P    4.52R    1.63  
York                 24   25   -4      -3.57    31.28     1.75    51.55     6.56    -8.80     0.00     0.03     0.60     0.15P   19.97R    8.85  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.28    32.71    -1.46    50.43     6.50   -14.77     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.07P   26.33R   12.49  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.58    20.97    -1.18    52.47     6.78    -7.65     0.00     0.03     0.94     0.23P   16.95R    7.47  
Torquay              24   22  -15      -6.58    17.41    -8.81    48.08     6.58   -20.86     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   41.33R   23.42  
Northampton          23   19  -13      -8.42    10.51    -7.53    47.21     6.80   -17.41     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   45.42R   27.28  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            26   56  +34       7.07    84.09    12.15    94.51     6.03    51.90    68.39    99.85    79.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.34    95.33    15.39    89.83     6.55    38.73    27.68    98.30    48.78P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    27   49   +2      13.25    95.72     5.03    73.98     6.00    -0.37     0.24    35.65     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.09    61.20     0.51    80.68     6.51    24.53     2.86    78.75    25.51P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          27   42  +11       3.24    66.08     8.81    67.74     6.32     9.93     0.02    11.55     1.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       0.98    55.25    -6.76    75.98     6.46    12.16     0.51    51.45    12.78P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         25   41   +3       8.19    87.33     5.24    67.24     6.26    -0.96     0.02     8.85     1.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.18    86.81     6.95    68.20     6.81     1.48     0.05    13.22     2.15P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           26   39   +8      -4.30    28.10    -3.85    72.82     6.30    17.86     0.13    34.14     9.82P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.20    72.63     7.67    68.72     6.61     9.76     0.04    15.27     2.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       1.00    55.72     0.83    66.67     6.50     4.61     0.01     8.78     1.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        25   38   +4       3.57    69.01     4.13    68.25     6.36     6.28     0.03    12.48     2.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.32    72.60     7.45    65.65     6.89     4.22     0.01     7.67     1.29P    0.08R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.07    33.38     0.81    67.07     6.73    11.80     0.01    10.95     2.43P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          25   32   +3      -9.29     9.98    -8.25    66.42     6.45    11.67     0.00     8.43     2.33P    0.03R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.81    21.24    -5.75    60.44     6.39    -0.89     0.00     1.16     0.26P    0.38R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.25    43.70    -1.02    53.70     6.43   -15.68     0.00     0.08     0.01P    5.39R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     25   28   -9      -1.89    40.23    -2.07    55.17     6.46   -11.68     0.00     0.16     0.02P    3.21R    0.00  
Aldershot        24   25   +5      -5.11    23.81    -6.29    62.70     6.71    16.95     0.00     3.26     1.02P    0.28R    0.00  
Southport        24   23  -17      -2.96    33.90    -5.11    47.89     6.34   -25.84     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.70R    0.03  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.73    36.31    -0.36    43.85     6.17   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.63R    0.11  
Tamworth         23   21  -20      -1.23    43.86    -4.99    45.53     6.47   -31.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.97R    0.08  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.43     8.28   -11.98    38.82     5.89   -36.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.25R    0.61  
Hyde_United      25    3  -47     -16.49     0.08   -18.51    18.53     5.52   -72.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   99.17  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10