Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 1 January 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Arsenal 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   45  +21       5.99    83.59     2.77    79.33     5.62    36.65    23.25    53.81    77.29    90.63    99.18     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   44  +34       0.50    51.87     6.40    82.61     5.22    58.94    54.09    79.84    92.55    97.65    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +19       4.28    75.60     0.86    77.93     5.69    34.93    16.67    42.76    69.40    86.09    98.43     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   39  +23       1.08    56.43     5.72    73.05     5.84    37.68     4.65    16.17    35.88    62.55    92.62     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   38  +13       4.24    75.06     4.00    67.82     5.81    20.63     0.52     2.80     9.26    22.97    70.89     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   37   -1       6.12    83.65    -5.59    65.60     5.83     4.73     0.22     1.12     4.16    11.93    51.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   34   +9      -4.20    24.31    -7.97    68.58     5.61    25.19     0.60     3.49    11.34    27.44    77.70     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        20   33   +4       6.27    84.18     6.12    56.78     5.80     1.74     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.68     7.85     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      20   27   +3       1.23    58.43     6.55    51.12     5.86     1.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.36     0.14R    0.01  
Hull             20   23   -3       2.17    65.47     8.07    42.15     5.70   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     7.83R    0.91  
Aston_Villa      20   23   -6      -0.01    51.02     1.21    43.38     5.54   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     4.85R    0.50  
Stoke            20   22  -11       0.05    51.46    -2.57    42.22     5.59   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.92R    1.03  
Swansea          20   21   -2      -4.05    26.10     2.32    45.05     5.74    -3.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     2.75R    0.32  
West_Brom        20   21   -4      -4.59    22.86    -0.20    43.92     5.78    -7.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     4.45R    0.55  
Norwich          20   20  -16      -1.18    42.96    -4.69    37.88     5.44   -27.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.03R    5.53  
Fulham           20   19  -21      -2.44    35.45   -10.09    38.04     5.49   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.15R    6.02  
Cardiff          20   18  -17      -0.52    48.12    -2.54    35.73     5.41   -28.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.72R   11.94  
Crystal_Palace   20   17  -16      -0.20    50.38     1.31    31.55     5.14   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.15R   35.54  
West_Ham         20   15  -11      -7.84     9.36    -3.27    35.18     5.55   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.03R   12.47  
Sunderland       20   14  -18      -6.99    11.65    -8.39    32.82     5.34   -28.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.97R   25.18  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Birmingham 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       24   51  +16       9.79    91.57     3.40    88.13     6.73    26.62    52.98    75.71    98.49    81.94P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   47  +18       8.23    87.78     9.24    82.42     6.67    25.86    18.98    44.44    92.39    56.53P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             24   46  +12       6.45    82.06     2.42    81.44     6.61    19.72    14.29    35.87    89.57    51.31P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   44  +18       5.89    78.93    10.08    79.19     6.79    25.81     9.81    26.94    83.70    40.20P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   40  +10       3.90    70.81     5.09    73.34     6.72    14.88     1.82     6.73    53.88    17.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         24   36   +9       2.41    63.53     7.75    66.65     6.72     9.82     0.20     0.99    18.96     4.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        24   36   +7      -1.70    40.55    -0.23    69.96     6.62    12.68     0.54     2.47    33.76    10.86P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    24   35   +7       1.00    55.92     5.28    66.37     6.73     8.91     0.19     0.88    18.04     4.42P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         24   35   +2      -1.94    39.62    -4.11    69.22     6.89     8.17     0.50     2.16    29.97     9.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   34   +2      -0.24    48.87    -0.17    65.33     6.74     4.00     0.10     0.53    13.37     3.37P    0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           23   33   +2      -2.67    35.35    -4.09    69.06     6.96     8.94     0.41     2.04    29.31     9.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       24   32   -4      -1.04    44.56    -4.32    62.08     6.64    -3.93     0.02     0.11     5.58     1.19P    0.28R    0.01  
Huddersfield    24   31   +4      -0.02    50.37     6.68    59.90     6.65     2.13     0.00     0.05     3.40     0.65P    0.63R    0.02  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.13    19.36    -1.16    65.79     7.04    12.39     0.16     0.87    17.78     5.32P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   30   +5      -3.68    30.90     3.79    60.92     6.78     6.07     0.01     0.11     5.10     1.20P    0.52R    0.02  
Bournemouth     24   30  -10       3.84    71.40     1.14    54.18     6.68   -19.65     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.06P    5.75R    0.38  
Birmingham      24   29   +1      -5.85    20.86    -1.97    60.17     6.76     2.68     0.00     0.07     3.91     0.92P    0.64R    0.02  
Bolton          24   27   -5      -7.06    16.32    -6.76    58.25     6.83    -3.31     0.00     0.02     2.06     0.47P    1.55R    0.06  
Charlton        24   24   -8      -6.94    16.09    -5.53    52.55     6.60   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    7.85R    0.60  
Sheff_Wed       23   22   -7      -5.79    19.99    -1.70    49.74     6.75   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   16.07R    1.84  
Millwall        24   22  -23      -2.96    34.26   -10.63    45.52     6.40   -33.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.84R    7.27  
Doncaster       24   21  -23      -0.81    46.76    -6.09    41.36     6.24   -38.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.77R   20.21  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.43    30.83    -0.86    38.21     6.39   -34.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   80.96R   37.33  
Barnsley        24   17  -21      -7.01    14.62    -7.26    38.94     6.33   -33.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.88R   32.23  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Crewe 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       24   52  +19      11.56    94.68     7.81    89.55     6.81    30.06    32.81    61.58    98.89    71.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   24   49  +21       3.56    68.45     2.39    90.06     6.75    37.22    38.09    66.98    99.04    78.21P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   23   48  +25       9.54    91.12    14.58    87.19     7.06    36.64    23.34    49.61    97.52    61.86P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         24   47  +11      10.51    92.80     5.70    80.26     6.83    15.57     3.87    12.91    84.48    27.09P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    24   39   +6      -0.79    45.65    -4.40    76.18     6.92    16.88     1.16     4.81    67.53    21.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham       24   38   +6       7.24    83.66     9.83    66.60     6.90     3.29     0.04     0.24    16.41     2.60P    0.33R    0.01  
Walsall         24   37   +5       2.85    65.54     3.02    68.87     6.81     7.56     0.08     0.51    25.62     5.54P    0.10R    0.00  
Port_Vale       24   36   -1       5.91    78.64     3.87    63.85     6.98    -5.26     0.01     0.09     8.73     1.42P    1.19R    0.04  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.98    24.12    -2.33    73.15     7.06    20.34     0.49     2.50    52.51    17.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry        24   32  +10       3.77    69.21     1.84    66.37     7.03    16.37     0.04     0.29    18.07     4.71P    0.45R    0.01  
MK_Dons         23   32   +4      -4.55    26.25    -3.54    68.21     7.14    10.93     0.09     0.49    24.94     6.78P    0.25R    0.01  
Bradford        24   31   +6       1.49    58.66    11.14    57.99     6.82     1.06     0.00     0.00     2.04     0.30P    6.18R    0.39  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.42    52.77    -0.51    56.92     6.86   -10.43     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.21P    9.45R    0.82  
Colchester      24   28   -4      -0.67    47.11     2.39    54.67     6.66    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.07P   15.12R    1.57  
Carlisle        24   27  -13       0.11    51.47    -3.17    50.81     6.53   -23.55     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   34.33R    5.27  
Shrewsbury      24   26   -3      -3.96    29.31     1.02    52.88     6.57    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   21.06R    2.60  
Gillingham      24   26  -10      -1.38    43.66    -0.91    50.60     6.72   -19.12     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   35.17R    6.14  
Sheff_Utd       24   25   -8      -9.44     9.19   -10.37    56.72     6.75    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.21P    9.23R    0.80  
Oldham          23   24   -6      -3.02    33.85     0.63    50.96     6.82   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   31.75R    5.57  
Tranmere        24   24  -16      -4.40    27.25    -9.09    51.38     6.73   -20.42     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P   30.91R    5.19  
Crewe           24   24  -25       0.59    54.63    -9.20    44.72     6.29   -40.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.78R   27.75  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.38     5.89    -5.46    54.83     7.24    -1.24     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.20P   15.52R    2.12  
Notts_County    25   21   -8     -12.45     4.23    -6.71    48.65     6.54    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   43.36R    9.24  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.18    22.45    -8.52    43.78     6.70   -30.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.77R   32.48  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Dag_&_Red 1 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           24   44  +12       3.27    67.04     0.49    82.04     6.87    23.50    42.25    77.49    96.55    83.54P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   42   +5       8.11    86.89     3.33    72.09     6.68     5.04     4.22    21.48    63.97    30.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.19    62.14     3.58    79.04     6.93    23.44    25.24    63.33    92.02    72.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             24   41   +9       3.26    67.32     1.97    75.70     6.72    15.64    11.27    42.28    82.88    54.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   40   +4       4.88    74.91     0.77    72.22     6.90     7.00     4.45    22.84    64.96    32.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.37    63.10     7.00    72.83     6.94    17.93     6.21    28.46    71.07    40.19P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   38   +8       4.90    75.36     5.64    70.32     6.99     9.16     3.12    17.07    55.33    25.65P    0.02R    0.01  
Newport_County       22   37   +8      10.41    93.19    13.07    67.59     7.28     4.88     1.62    10.04    39.91    15.27P    0.16R    0.03  
Morecambe            25   35   -4       2.58    64.31    -1.50    61.70     6.49    -6.81     0.10     1.14    11.65     3.25P    1.02R    0.25  
Dag_&_Red            24   34   +3       1.83    60.68     3.85    63.54     6.72     2.35     0.27     2.83    19.98     6.70P    0.53R    0.12  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.60    46.91    -3.15    63.12     6.83    -1.88     0.24     2.45    18.04     6.29P    0.73R    0.20  
Plymouth             24   33   -3       2.68    65.75    -0.19    60.39     6.55    -6.09     0.07     0.85     8.70     2.53P    1.69R    0.49  
Exeter               23   32   -1      -0.04    50.21    -1.73    65.07     6.98     1.32     0.52     4.73    26.88    10.06P    0.42R    0.13  
Hartlepool           24   31   -1      -3.76    30.60    -3.91    63.03     6.85     2.01     0.20     2.48    18.57     7.02P    0.71R    0.17  
AFC_Wimbledon        23   28   -3       0.96    56.55     3.39    55.03     6.76    -9.41     0.01     0.14     2.30     0.55P    9.96R    3.93  
Bury                 24   27   +0      -8.20    13.42    -3.45    58.98     7.02     2.71     0.07     0.75     8.29     2.99P    3.22R    1.04  
Wycombe              22   27   +0      -3.10    32.87    -0.08    59.73     7.17    -0.16     0.11     1.13    10.19     3.30P    2.89R    0.99  
Mansfield            24   26   -8      -0.65    47.62     1.22    51.02     6.69   -15.39     0.00     0.02     0.56     0.14P   24.57R   11.69  
Portsmouth           24   26   -9      -9.39    10.43   -12.72    58.24     6.93    -6.04     0.03     0.43     5.86     2.14P    4.48R    1.65  
York                 24   25   -4      -3.60    30.66     1.74    51.61     6.53    -8.76     0.00     0.03     0.63     0.16P   19.61R    8.76  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -3.28    32.56    -1.45    50.43     6.52   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P   26.79R   12.88  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.58    21.16    -1.17    52.50     6.82    -7.64     0.00     0.04     1.09     0.27P   17.11R    7.46  
Torquay              24   22  -15      -6.67    16.93    -8.99    48.16     6.64   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   40.85R   23.25  
Northampton          23   19  -13      -8.57    10.14    -7.71    47.23     6.79   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   45.23R   26.95  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            26   56  +34       7.03    83.83    12.05    94.55     6.00    51.97    68.92    99.89    80.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.41    95.31    15.50    89.77     6.55    38.65    27.20    98.20    48.32P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    27   49   +2      13.41    96.03     5.22    73.84     5.99    -0.55     0.20    34.86     4.22P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   44  +14       2.16    61.70     0.60    80.70     6.52    24.50     2.86    78.55    25.55P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          27   42  +11       3.20    66.00     8.76    67.74     6.31    10.01     0.01    11.45     1.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.00    55.14    -6.75    75.92     6.43    12.07     0.49    50.99    12.64P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         25   41   +3       8.14    87.11     5.15    67.15     6.26    -1.03     0.01     8.65     1.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.16    86.85     6.89    68.23     6.81     1.53     0.06    13.53     2.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           26   39   +8      -4.49    27.25    -4.15    72.98     6.23    18.07     0.13    34.97    10.10P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.14    72.24     7.53    68.74     6.60     9.80     0.03    15.17     2.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38   +5       0.87    54.84     0.61    66.77     6.51     4.77     0.01     8.98     1.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        25   38   +4       3.49    68.81     4.01    68.40     6.38     6.46     0.02    13.01     2.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.10    71.58     7.16    65.82     6.92     4.55     0.02     7.99     1.42P    0.08R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.03    33.70     0.88    67.03     6.69    11.76     0.01    10.63     2.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          25   32   +3      -9.22     9.97    -8.13    66.41     6.41    11.61     0.01     8.46     2.30P    0.04R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.68    21.91    -5.58    60.33     6.36    -1.04     0.00     1.10     0.23P    0.44R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.07    44.68    -0.67    53.54     6.43   -16.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    5.48R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     25   28   -9      -1.78    40.59    -1.93    55.10     6.42   -11.78     0.00     0.13     0.02P    3.26R    0.00  
Aldershot        24   25   +5      -5.19    23.39    -6.43    62.75     6.71    17.01     0.00     3.36     0.98P    0.24R    0.00  
Southport        24   23  -17      -2.98    34.12    -5.11    47.91     6.38   -25.87     0.00     0.00     0.00P   23.68R    0.03  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.64    36.47    -0.21    43.76     6.15   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.48R    0.10  
Tamworth         23   21  -20      -1.28    43.59    -4.98    45.69     6.46   -31.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.09R    0.09  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.53     8.20   -12.11    38.85     5.88   -36.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.13R    0.60  
Hyde_United      25    3  -47     -16.40     0.08   -18.32    18.47     5.47   -72.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   99.17  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10